The 2024 Trade Deadline

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, casadeozo said:

Man I’m glad you’re not in charge

What do you think the price of a young cost controlled ace is?  How much would you want in return for Gray Rod?  Imanaga has 4 1/2 years left on his contract at around $60 million.  There is 2 options in his contract so there is a variable cost between $50 and 60 million.  Jackson and Kjerstad might be more than I would want to give up, but the O's aren't getting an ace for spare parts or paying market rates for an ace. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

In July the O's go back to a 5 man rotation.   Burnes, GRod, Suarez, Irvin and Kremer.  Povich and McDermott will be starter depth unless Povich is pitching so well they can't send him down.

I would be shopping Norby and a lesser minor leaguer for a late inning reliever.  Not a starter at this point.

I'm surprised the O's haven't tried McDermott as a reliever yet.  Some posters have said the O's need 3 relievers.  There is no way the O's are trading for 3 relievers.  They might trade for 1, find one in the minors and claim one off the waiver wire. 

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

What do you think the price of a young cost controlled ace is?  How much would you want in return for Gray Rod?  Imanaga has 4 1/2 years left on his contract at around $60 million.  There is 2 options in his contract so there is a variable cost between $50 and 60 million.  Jackson and Kjerstad might be more than I would want to give up, but the O's aren't getting an ace for spare parts or paying market rates for an ace. 

I don't want anything for Grayson. We are trying to win and add, not subtract from areas of strength.

We can add a a 2/3ish starter for less than Holliday and Kjerstad. We have plenty of players/prospects that we can trade that other teams want. After all, we have the best farm system in the game.

Just because the player(s) is/are not the #1 prospect in the sport, it doesn't make him/them spare parts.

[OsFanInOhio]

8 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm surprised the O's haven't tried McDermott as a reliever yet.  Some posters have said the O's need 3 relievers.  There is no way the O's are trading for 3 relievers.  They might trade for 1, find one in the minors and claim one off the waiver wire. 

I would be not surprised at all if McDermott deloads after the all star break and comes up to use as a reliever a la do hall the last few years. He’s basically tanner Scott without having to give up prospects to get. 

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm surprised the O's haven't tried McDermott as a reliever yet.  Some posters have said the O's need 3 relievers.  There is no way the O's are trading for 3 relievers.  They might trade for 1, find one in the minors and claim one off the waiver wire. 

McDermott has a WHIP of almost 1.5 and has walked 41 batters in 64 and 2/3 innings. I'm not sure how that plays at the Big League level or how anyone could have a lot of confidence that those numbers translate into the kind of shut down backend reliever that we need.

[OriolesMagic83]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't want anything for Grayson. We are trying to win and add, not subtract from areas of strength.

We can add a a 2/3ish starter for less than Holliday and Kjerstad. We have plenty of players/prospects that we can trade that other teams want. After all, we have the best farm system in the game.

Just because the player(s) is/are not the #1 prospect in the sport, it doesn't make him/them spare parts.

Way to avoid the question.  If the O's were in rebuild mode and had Gray Rod in the exact position he is now, what kind of prospect package would you want?  Fans here are notorious for not wanting to give up any good prospects for other team's best players but then want the world for their own less than perfect players.  When Gausman was about to be traded here (way less an impressive pitcher than Gray Rod is now), posters here were convinced that the O's would get 3 top 100 prospects for him.  The O's got none 

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, OsFanInOhio said:

I would be not surprised at all if McDermott deloads after the all star break and comes up to use as a reliever a la do hall the last few years. He’s basically tanner Scott without having to give up prospects to get. 

I mean Tanner Scott at least has a Major League track record. How much do you think Scott will really cost? Also, we have more position players and prospects that we could ever use. I understand maybe not wanting Scott, but I don't understand the logic of not wanting surrender any prospects (even some good ones). We almost have to at some point. Otherwise, you have 25 year old top level prospects like Kjerstad, who is in his prime now and killing it at AAA but has no place on the Big League roster. Stowers is even older and has contributed relatively nothing to the Orioles and is now age 26.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, OriolesMagic83 said:

Way to avoid the question.  If the O's were in rebuild mode and had Gray Rod in the exact position he is now, what kind of prospect package would you want?  Fans here are notorious for not wanting to give up any good prospects for other team's best players but then want the world for their own less than perfect players.  When Gausman was about to be traded here (way less an impressive pitcher than Gray Rod is now), posters here were convinced that the O's would get 3 top 100 prospects for him.  The O's got none 

They are not in a rebuild. And I don't want to waste time imagining that the team is bad and trading our best young players. As a matter of fact, I hope we don't have to do that for years to come. I envision adding good players not how can we get rid of the good ones that we have. I have waited my whole life to finally have a team this good.

I don't mind at all trading good prospects. And have no delusional expectations that we can get value without surrendering value. Nor am I in love with the notion that we have to have a cheap, homegrown team. As a matter of fact, I want and expect the org to spend much more money on payroll than it is doing currently.

Lastly, what happened with Gausman is in the past and under a totally different administration (ownership + front office). We were selling then. We are buying now.

[OsFanInOhio]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I mean Tanner Scott at least has a Major League track record. How much do you think Scott will really cost? Also, we have more position players and prospects that we could ever use. I understand maybe not wanting Scott, but I don't understand the logic of not wanting surrender any prospects (even some good ones). We almost have to at some point. Otherwise, you have 25 year old top level prospects like Kjerstad, who is in his prime now and killing it at AAA but has no place on the Big League roster. Stowers is even older and has contributed relatively nothing to the Orioles and is now age 26.

I’m not saying we can’t trade for Scott. Or that we shouldn’t trade for someone. More that we basically already have one reliever we don’t have to trade for. But a guy who will likely have a relatively high whip due to command issues but have a well above average k rate…

I also just don’t love rentals in general. Hit or miss as to whether they perform well anyway (hey jack flaherty) and then it’s gone. If you don’t win that year it’s all for nothing. For the right cost I’m okay with it, but I don’t want to give up a major prospect for a rental unless it’s the piece that puts us over the top 

[casadeozo]

35 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

What do you think the price of a young cost controlled ace is?  How much would you want in return for Gray Rod?  Imanaga has 4 1/2 years left on his contract at around $60 million.  There is 2 options in his contract so there is a variable cost between $50 and 60 million.  Jackson and Kjerstad might be more than I would want to give up, but the O's aren't getting an ace for spare parts or paying market rates for an ace. 

Let’s be clear. He’s pitching like an ace THIS YEAR.

this is his first year in mlb and he was considered a back end starter when he was signed.  No one rational would say a 2.5 month performance in your first year in MLB requires the number one prospect in baseball PLUS MORE!

Respectfully it’s lunacy.

[Rbiggs2525]

What about the Rays? I know it’s hard to trade in division. They need offense and you could kill 2 birds with one stone. Zach Efflin and Jason Adam would solve both starter and bullpen issues. Rays may be extra incentivized to get rid of Efflin contract.

[e16bball]

9 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Way to avoid the question.  If the O's were in rebuild mode and had Gray Rod in the exact position he is now, what kind of prospect package would you want?  Fans here are notorious for not wanting to give up any good prospects for other team's best players but then want the world for their own less than perfect players.  When Gausman was about to be traded here (way less an impressive pitcher than Gray Rod is now), posters here were convinced that the O's would get 3 top 100 prospects for him.  The O's got none 

I think you’re having trouble getting an answer because you’re making a comparison that isn’t particularly apt.

Grayson is 24 years old. Shōta turns 31 in a couple months, and he’s got 1200+ professional innings on his arm (on top of a full college career).

You also have two years of pre-arb left with Grayson, followed by three years of arbitration. Something like 5/$35M. Assuming Shōta’s 2025 option gets exercised (which should be the hope, because it would mean he’s been healthy and pitching like the “ace” that you’re calling him), you’re looking at something in the realm of 4/$70M. So one fewer year at twice the cost.

They're not particularly comparable. You’re talking about a kid who has yet to even enter his prime and a veteran who is starting to approach the end of his. The respective returns for the two would presumably be pretty different — and that’s without even addressing the issue that you’d very likely be buying Shōta at the absolute peak of his value right now.

[btdart20]

38 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

When Gausman was about to be traded here (way less an impressive pitcher than Gray Rod is now), posters here were convinced that the O's would get 3 top 100 prospects for him.  The O's got none 

Trading HK and Norby is leftovers but 4 non-top 100 prospects gets Gausman.  Every market is different, but sounds like your just circling wagons around a cliche.

[OriolesMagic83]

6 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

What about the Rays? I know it’s hard to trade in division. They need offense and you could kill 2 birds with one stone. Zach Efflin and Jason Adam would solve both starter and bullpen issues. Rays may be extra incentivized to get rid of Efflin contract.

You would think the Rays are going to have a selloff if they aren't playoff team at the deadline.  They stretched their budget this year, and are not going to lose money to miss the playoffs by 2 games. 

[Philip]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

You would think the Rays are going to have a selloff if they aren't playoff team at the deadline.  They stretched their budget this year, and are not going to lose money to miss the playoffs by 2 games. 

That is an excellent attitude, and if I were the Rays, I would be all over helping the Orioles defeat the hated Yankees.

They should be sending us everything they have, and politely declining any repayment.