The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Just Regular]

Passan drew this link between Dombrowski and Elias in his big piece for this week.     That's the basic question before us as Elias has excelled setting it all up...he's playing the highest stakes games now.      Adley's 3.5 years is perhaps ballpark similar to the timeframe the Phillies' great players remain a championship caliber nucleus.     Adley's final 3 years - unless payroll grows, the opportunity for rosters with Burnes-Santander-Kimbrel level supporting players may shrink a little.

It's more about ensuring a window doesn't close without a team maximizing its opportunity. In this regard, the Phillies and Orioles are quite similar, though Dombrowski's counterpart in Baltimore, Mike Elias, gets a little more leeway because the Orioles' period of contention is longer than any team's. The Phillies' isn't short, by any means, but every year Bryce Harper (31 years old), Trea Turner (31), J.T. Realmuto (33), Zack Wheeler (34) and Aaron Nola (31) age is a year closer to an inevitable downturn.

That's when, as an executive in charge, you push. And when it comes to a willingness to look past what a computer system suggests is proper value and potentially overpay for talent, nobody matches Dombrowski. Robert fits the bill and fills a need. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm not @drjohnnyfever1 but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night! LOL.  Anyway, it seemed that he was saying that he feels that this may be the way the O's go, as opposed to what he personally thinks is the best way to go about things.

LOL.. IMO with a possible World Series championship on the line, that would be a professional malpractice type move. Especially with how things turned out last year trying to do it on the cheap at the deadline.

IMO the stakes are too high this season to consider settling for bargain basement type shopping. There’s absolutely no credible reason to do that.

Plus we are on the verge of messing up some guys’ careers like Stowers, Norby. You can’t just bury guys at AAA forever and never give them opportunities. And you can’t keep selling guys like Gunnar and Adley (who are ultra competitors) on “Well, we might really try next year. Maybe?” They don’t get these seasons of their careers back. And as much as I or any other poster may want to win, those guys on the field want it a WHOLE HECK OF A LOT MORE.

IMO the org has to pick a course and do the right thing by the players (both those on the roster and those who belong in the Big Leagues).

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

LOL.. IMO with a possible World Series championship on the line, that would be a professional malpractice type move. Especially with how things turned out last year trying to do it on the cheap at the deadline.

IMO the stakes are too high this season to consider settling for bargain basement type shopping. There’s absolutely no credible reason to do that.

Plus we are on the verge of messing up some guys’ careers like Stowers, Norby. You can’t just bury guys at AAA forever and never give them opportunities. And you can’t keep selling guys like Gunnar and Adley (who are ultra competitors) on “Well, we might really try next year. Maybe?” They don’t get these seasons of their careers back. And as much as I or any other poster may want to win, those guys on the field want it a WHOLE HECK OF A LOT MORE.

IMO the org has to pick a course and do the right thing by the players (both those on the roster and those who belong in the Big Leagues).

Let's say he adds a quality starter and a quality bullpen arm.  What does that do to the O's odds to win a WS?  Maybe a 5% bump? 

What is that worth in prospect capital?

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let's say he adds a quality starter and a quality bullpen arm.  What does that do to the O's odds to win a WS?  Maybe a 5% bump? 

What is that worth in prospect capital?

As much of a crapshoot as the playoffs are, I'd say a 5% boost is worth quite a bit. 

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let's say he adds a quality starter and a quality bullpen arm.  What does that do to the O's odds to win a WS?  Maybe a 5% bump? 

What is that worth in prospect capital?

I’m not an actuary. That’s @Filmstudy realm. He’s a master at calculating odds.

Here’s what I will say. I think (just my two cents) that Elias should be aiming to come away from the trade deadline with a starting pitcher who is a real difference maker. And hopefully a bullpen arm or two that have power/strikeout stuff (unlike all of our relievers currently not named Kimbrel).

Elias should be trying to increase our odds as high as possible. I don’t know by what percent our odds will increase. But I do know that if we add a top of the rotation type pitcher to what we have, the odds of us likely being successful against ANY TEAM in the Fall will go up.

This again is just my opinion (for whatever that is worth) but it sends the right message to the players that you are invested in truly trying to get this team over the line (World Series trophy). If the message that is sent to the players continues to be “one foot in and one foot out”. I’m not sure if that is a strong appeal to ultra competitors like Gunnar and Adley.

People might say well who cares what the players think? But it is probably going to play a roll (what they think/how they feel) in whether or not they are willing to re-up here longterm. And I can’t envision a version of the Orioles that is as strong and as viable to maximizing the earnings/value of the franchise without them.

I’ve said this before, but I attend a lot of games and I’m around town very often. I see all of the #2 and #35 shirts on people’s backs in the stadium and around the community.

Lastly, I believe that it is very important that we do right for players like Stowers and Norby. I get and I’m sure they understand that there may not be a place for them on the Baltimore Orioles. But you can’t leave guys buried at AAA for years and never give them a chance, especially when we are talking about prime years. These guys only have so many years to make money by playing the game.

If you can’t use them, send them elsewhere. I have never been a big believer that you get rewarded by treating people (and that is what all the players actually are) wrong.

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m not an actuary. That’s @Filmstudy realm. He’s a master at calculating odds.

Here’s what I will say. I think (just my two cents) that Elias should be aiming to come away from the trade deadline with a starting pitcher who is a real difference maker. And hopefully a bullpen arm or two that have power/strikeout stuff (unlike all of our relievers currently not named Kimbrel).

Elias should be trying to increase our odds as high as possible. I don’t know by what percent our odds will increase. But I do know that if we add a top of the rotation type pitcher to what we have, the odds of us likely being successful against ANY TEAM in the Fall will go up.

This again is just my opinion (for whatever that is worth) but it sends the right message to the players that you are invested in truly trying to get this team over the line (World Series trophy). If the message that is sent to the players continues to be “one foot in and one foot out”. I’m not sure if that is a strong appeal to ultra competitors like Gunnar and Adley.

People might say well who cares what the players think? But it is probably going to play a roll (what they think/how they feel) in whether or not they are willing to re-up here longterm. And I can’t envision a version of the Orioles that is as strong and as viable to maximizing the earnings/value of the franchise without them.

I’ve said this before, but I attend a lot of games and I’m around town very often. I see all of the #2 and #35 shirts on people’s backs in the stadium and around the community.

Lastly, I believe that it is very important that we do right for players like Stowers and Norby. I get and I’m sure they understand that there may not be a place for them on the Baltimore Orioles. But you can’t leave guys buried at AAA for years and never give them a chance, especially when we are talking about prime years. These guys only have so many years to make money by playing the game.

If you can’t use them, send them elsewhere. I have never been a big believer that you get rewarded by treating people (and that is what all the players actually are) wrong.

I believe the players think they can beat anyone in a short series as currently constructed.  Why wouldn’t they?   They’ve been doing it all season.  I don’t think they see things as we do or you do.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I believe the players think they can beat anyone in a short series as currently constructed.  Why wouldn’t they?   They’ve been doing it all season.  I don’t think they see things as we do or you do.

You may be right. But I am sure the players (most/hopefully all) can tell the difference between the chances you have with Povich/Irvin starting and with Skubal/Crochet/Scherzer starting (especially in the playoffs).

[Chromehill]

Elias should be aggressive.  I think last year, a lot of the players were happy to be there, win the AL East, best record in the AL, great season.  They have a window of 3 to 4 years, be aggressive, you never know what can happen.  Go into the postseason with just Burnes and Grayson as your stud starters and a bunch of question marks and make an early exit again...the players might not be too happy that Elias was not aggressiv.  That could impact their staying in Baltimore.  

One thing Ripken has said, it was great winning the World Series his second season, he thought he would get several more, never made it back there.  

Go after it while the opportunity is there.  

[adidasdoc]

Would you be open to trading Norby, Beavers, Horvath, Arias and Sosa if it meant you could add 2 starters that slot more as a 3 behind Corbin and Grayson for this year? Maybe take a flyer on Bassitt from Toronto, Efflin from Tampa, Freeland from Colorado and then find a reliever on the cheap with whoever you don't lose for them and possibly add some FSL players. You go for it this year and build a decent top 3 while also not losing anyone of true substance besides Norby

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You may be right. But I am sure the players (most/hopefully all) can tell the difference between the chances you have with Povich/Irvin starting and with Skubal/Crochet/Scherzer starting (especially in the playoffs).

With the caveat that we may have to trade some of their best friends to get those guys.  Do you regard Scherzer as a TOR pitcher you’d be happy getting as the top get?

[Bemorewins]

27 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

With the caveat that we may have to trade some of their best friends to get those guys.  Do you regard Scherzer as a TOR pitcher you’d be happy getting as the top get?

No, I do not.

They are professionals and I’m sure they can manage friendships if they choose to even if they are teammates.

[Just Regular]

I think Eflin v. Bassitt is an interesting compare-contrast if TOR-TBR deal 1.5 season guys, and the clubs get over their divisional angst.

Will the Rays do better than a Cowser or Kjerstad if they move Eflin?    I don't think Elias' guys a step down from them get them on a 1:1 basis.

[eddie83]

8 hours ago, CTBear said:

Unfortunately those players may not reach the Orioles if they’re claimed before us. Last year, I believe the Guardians claimed any pitchers of value and Renfroe was snagged by the Reds. 

Sure. I wasn’t trying to imply players would get to the Orioles. Just want to see if this happens again. 

[drjohnnyfever1]

7 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I understand the sentiment, IMO it's just the wrong situation.

Teams that are this good, young, and inexpensive should not cast their lot on "cash considerations" kinds of players.

We are arguably the best team in baseball with a very legit shot at a title (first in over 40 years). The waiver wire/players who are DFA's is not the way to go this year. Even if an opportunity arises where a useful player like Aaron Hicks becomes available (like he did last year), it is doubtful that we would be high enough in the peaking order to claim such a player (given how good our record is).

I don't think you should ever shut yourself off from any avenue of talent acquisition. But I'm curious why you think "the waiver wire"/"bargain bin"/"cash considerations" is the best way to improve the team? 

Fair enough.  I just feel like they are going to continue to "horde" young up-and-comers and maybe try to nurse this thru.  I do think it's more likely this year than last that they actually make a couple splashes in FA.

I also get winning now...  So it wouldn't shock me if they do something big before the deadline, but I just feel like it's not going to be as big as many seem to want.  And I think I appreciate that about Elias; to be completely honest.

[drjohnnyfever1]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Trading mid tier prospects is not in the cash considerations aisle.

I agree, but it's also not Holliday for name the guy, which I think is silly.  The point is I feel like they were in the main aisle in the offseason when they traded for Burnes; that might have been their splash for this year.  Certainly Kimbrel was a main aisle purchase...  I don't know they are in the main aisle anymore.