Cade Povich 2024

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

Yeah, his control is a lot better. Still need to work on pitch mix and command.

His fastball, believe it or not, is his most effective pitch in terms of outcome, i.e. lowest batting average (214) and lowest slugging (314). It does have a low strikeout rate, though.

His biggest growth needs to come from his curveball and cutter, to be honest. They're getting hit the hardest, by far. They also, when on, get the most whiffs and strikeouts. So this is probably both a command and pitch mix thing. 

He has a pretty large arsenal: 4 seamer, curve, sweeper, cutter, changeup, sinker. 

I'm very curious what his pitch mix is going to shape up as. It's encouraging to me that his 4 seamer is effective even with the velocity he has. Probably means he's got some good spin on it. 

But right now, his curveball and cutter are getting crushed. And that's not great because he's throwing his curveball the second most (behind the 4 seamer). 

He’s completely scrapped the cutter since getting sent down to AAA midseason and doesn’t throw it at all anymore, instead shifting towards throwing sweepers to righties instead - which I think was a good decision. But he didn’t do that last night, for whatever reason.

Povich’s four seam fastball has been great at getting whiffs against AAA hitters, but it’s clear it doesn’t against MLB hitters. Rather, it has been effective at getting a lot of pop ups and fly balls, which is why it has the good numbers (and why his xERA overall isn’t that bad, even with terrible K/BB rates).

That’s the main reason I haven’t given up on him, I do think his fastball is good enough even with the low velo. It may just be more of a soft contact than whiff pitch at the MLB level. The problem is if his fastball is not missing bats, he needs something else that will.

In Povich’s good starts, his curve has been excellent and the pitch that brings it all together. But he needs more out of his sweeper and changeup when he’s not got the curve working.

The profile reminds me a lot of Kremer, who had great K rates as a minor leaguer but has never had a go-to whiff pitch at the MLB level. He’s trying to make the splitter that pitch for him now, Povich similarly needs to find what it is going to be for him. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

I love that Hyde sent him out there for the 7th

[accinfo]

Was Cade Povich in the movie Road Trip?

 

Edited September 4 by accinfo

[oh-wee-ohs]

50 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I love that Hyde sent him out there for the 7th

I love the tidbit that Cade flew past him after the 7th and didn't give Hyde an opportunity to congratulate him. More of todays Cade, please. Gimme more Slim!

[Wavetrapper]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I love that Hyde sent him out there for the 7th

They should do that more often in similar situations so that the pitcher can a proper ovation from the home crowd 

[Dunk35]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I love that Hyde sent him out there for the 7th

Minor gripe. That was the 8th inning you sww him in...

[Bahama O's Fan]

Just now, Dunk35 said:

Minor gripe. That was the 8th inning you sww him in...

I posted this in the 7th. Even better when he sent him out for the 8th

[LookitsPuck]

Cade was excellent. Also, only 3 walks in 22 innings (4 starts) since coming back up. He’s thrown 2 gems (Red Sox, White Sox), 1 that was better than his stat line shows (Astros) and an absolute stinker (Dodgers).

[Frobby]

The thing about Povich is he’s capable of having very good command one game and very poor command the next.  I really can’t think of one non-competitive pitch he threw tonight.   In that Dodger gsme he must have thrown 15 pitches that were 6+ inches off the plate or 6+ inches high.   

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The thing about Povich is he’s capable of having very good command one game and very poor command the next.  I really can’t think of one non-competitive pitch he threw tonight.   In that Dodger gsme he must have thrown 15 pitches that were 6+ inches off the plate or 6+ inches high.   

I saw a couple pitches 4+ inches off the plate that Wendlestedt called strikes anyway 

 

I'm not sure why Wendlestedt thinks the White Sox need a handicap, but here we are.

Edited September 4 by Hallas

[Moose Milligan]

Glad to see him have a great start. He did what he should have done against the worst team ever.  To @Frobby’s point, the non-competitive pitches were absent. 

[sportsfan8703]

On 8/30/2024 at 4:33 PM, CaptainRedbeard said:

He’s completely scrapped the cutter since getting sent down to AAA midseason and doesn’t throw it at all anymore, instead shifting towards throwing sweepers to righties instead - which I think was a good decision. But he didn’t do that last night, for whatever reason.

Povich’s four seam fastball has been great at getting whiffs against AAA hitters, but it’s clear it doesn’t against MLB hitters. Rather, it has been effective at getting a lot of pop ups and fly balls, which is why it has the good numbers (and why his xERA overall isn’t that bad, even with terrible K/BB rates).

That’s the main reason I haven’t given up on him, I do think his fastball is good enough even with the low velo. It may just be more of a soft contact than whiff pitch at the MLB level. The problem is if his fastball is not missing bats, he needs something else that will.

In Povich’s good starts, his curve has been excellent and the pitch that brings it all together. But he needs more out of his sweeper and changeup when he’s not got the curve working.

The profile reminds me a lot of Kremer, who had great K rates as a minor leaguer but has never had a go-to whiff pitch at the MLB level. He’s trying to make the splitter that pitch for him now, Povich similarly needs to find what it is going to be for him. 

Good analysis. Certain guys can get by with the cutter. Even if only for a short time period, but certain guys can’t get by with it. 

I wouldn’t give up on any player in their first year or two. Especially a pitcher. 

[interloper]

On 8/30/2024 at 4:33 PM, CaptainRedbeard said:

He’s completely scrapped the cutter since getting sent down to AAA midseason and doesn’t throw it at all anymore, instead shifting towards throwing sweepers to righties instead - which I think was a good decision. But he didn’t do that last night, for whatever reason.

Povich’s four seam fastball has been great at getting whiffs against AAA hitters, but it’s clear it doesn’t against MLB hitters. Rather, it has been effective at getting a lot of pop ups and fly balls, which is why it has the good numbers (and why his xERA overall isn’t that bad, even with terrible K/BB rates).

That’s the main reason I haven’t given up on him, I do think his fastball is good enough even with the low velo. It may just be more of a soft contact than whiff pitch at the MLB level. The problem is if his fastball is not missing bats, he needs something else that will.

In Povich’s good starts, his curve has been excellent and the pitch that brings it all together. But he needs more out of his sweeper and changeup when he’s not got the curve working.

The profile reminds me a lot of Kremer, who had great K rates as a minor leaguer but has never had a go-to whiff pitch at the MLB level. He’s trying to make the splitter that pitch for him now, Povich similarly needs to find what it is going to be for him. 

Always happy to see a bad cutter get punted into the sun. 

I agree his fastball is plenty good enough if he can command, especially in to righties. That's what Akin does and he has success. That's what Bedard was able to do. 92-94 will absolutely play as a lefty as long as he commands. 

Edited September 4 by interloper

[Just Regular]

Povich's big game got him to meet a 20 innings pitched in the Last 30 Days filter.    

PitchingBot's ERA estimator for the rolling 30 goes:

3.71 Burnes

4.29 Eflin

4.36 Povich

4.80 Suarez

4.85 Kremer

The 4.36 is 72nd of today's 120 MLB Arms meeting that filter, near Charlie Morton and Carlos Rodon.     

Ryan Pepiot who we will see this weekend is the AL's top readout on that sort, fueled by an excellent changeup rating that Colton Cowser definitely won't swing and miss at like 6 times in 3 plate appearances.    Put the Trajekt pitching machine on the Pepiot changeup during the off day tomorrow please.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Great start from Povich. Wish it had come against a better lineup so we could draw more conclusions against it, but he dominated and that’s all you can ask for.  The seemingly newfound strike throwing and lack of walks is phenomenal.

He pitches well off the high fastball and the curve when he can locate the curve. That’s his bread and butter. Two things I’d like to see more of that would allow him to take the next step with his other pitches:

-Locating the sweeper glove side down and in off the plate to righties (and same location to lefties). He’s good at landing it in-zone, but I don’t think he’s comfortable consistently hitting that spot just off the plate, but that’s where he should be able to get whiffs.

-More changeups off the plate outside to righties. This is something he does well already but should just go there more often. Seems like he gets a lot of chase on that pitch since it looks like the fastball but enticing coming in thigh high rather than at the belt. I don’t think his change is that great (because it doesn’t have a lot of movement or velo differential) and risks getting crushed in zone, but it’s been good at inducing chase when fading off the plate away to righties if locating where it looks competitive out of his hand.