Loewen unimpressive again

[justD]

You might be able to see him without being there, to help with the debate...for those who are semi-local, at any rate. Comcast will be broadcasting the game Saturday night on CN8.

Baysox news

I know Williams did a rehab start last night, but Anderson did pitch, so I think the regular rotation is intact - JJ tonight, Adam tomorrow night.

~d.

edit: Oh...right...it's going to be rained out tomorrow...

edit#2: If it's *not* rained out, it will be a double-header of tonight's suspended game plus tomorrow's scheduled game, 7 innings each. !

[Sports Guy]

Mikezpen..So, Loewen's K rate, HR rate and gb/fb ratio from last year do not excite you?

[mikezpen]

Loewen's stats are impressive, but let's remember who they were compiled aganst.

Last year, he walked 5.45 per game in Class A ball; career-wise in the minors, it's 5.64. Last year's AFL, it was 5 per game.He can get away with this against low-minors talent,and roll up some impressive stats. But if he's that wild down there, what's he going to be like against Major League hitters who are far more selective? He'll get shelled.

I've heard people counter by saying that Daniel Cabrera was also wild and he made it. He was never as wild as Loewen is; his minor league walk average was 4.81, and only 3.95 in the few games he had at Bowie before being called up. Plus, he is far more overpowering than Loewen is. He can get away with more fat pitches throwing 97 than Loewen can, throwing 90 or 91. And BTW, after watching Daniel's adventures this season, can we be really sure that he HAS made it?

Look, I hope you're right and Loewen comes up next year and shines. I think you'll get the chance to see him, because the Orioles simply sit around and do nothing most of the time. Trading him would require a level of forward thinking/pro-activeness and guts that is non-existant in Orioleland.

[Ruzious]

Loewen's stats are impressive, but let's remember who they were compiled aganst.

Last year, he walked 5.45 per game in Class A ball; career-wise in the minors, it's 5.64. Last year's AFL, it was 5 per game.He can get away with this against low-minors talent,and roll up some impressive stats. But if he's that wild down there, what's he going to be like against Major League hitters who are far more selective? He'll get shelled.

I've heard people counter by saying that Daniel Cabrera was also wild and he made it. He was never as wild as Loewen is; his minor league walk average was 4.81, and only 3.95 in the few games he had at Bowie before being called up. Plus, he is far more overpowering than Loewen is. He can get away with more fat pitches throwing 97 than Loewen can, throwing 90 or 91. And BTW, after watching Daniel's adventures this season, can we be really sure that he HAS made it?

Look, I hope you're right and Loewen comes up next year and shines. I think you'll get the chance to see him, because the Orioles simply sit around and do nothing most of the time. Trading him would require a level of forward thinking/pro-activeness and guts that is non-existant in Orioleland.

Excellent post - except for that last sentence. The walks are a legit concern that some people here choose to ignore. However, he still has outstanding potential, and you do not look to trade away players with that kind potential.

[Frobby]

I've heard people counter by saying that Daniel Cabrera was also wild and he made it. He was never as wild as Loewen is; his minor league walk average was 4.81, and only 3.95 in the few games he had at Bowie before being called up. Plus, he is far more overpowering than Loewen is. He can get away with more fat pitches throwing 97 than Loewen can, throwing 90 or 91. And BTW, after watching Daniel's adventures this season, can we be really sure that he HAS made it?

Let me say first that it is an open question whether Loewen can improve his command, and it is absolutely necessary that he do so if he is to be successful in the majors. And personally, I'm still waiting for Daniel Cabrera to do so. The road is littered with pitchers with "great stuff" who never became successful because they couldn't thow strikes or put the ball in the right spots.

I think your statistical comparison of Loewen and Cabrera is a bit misleading, though. Loewen just turned 22 two weeks ago, and he is at Bowie. Cabrera was at Delmarva when he turned 22, and he was getting pounded. He picked up the pace in the 2nd half, but still ended the year at 5-9, 4.24 ERA, and a walk rate of 5.60/9 IP. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/daniel-cabrera.shtml By comparison, last year at age 21 Loewen was already at Frederick and was 10-8, 4.13 with a walk rate of 5.45. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/daniel-cabrera.shtml Somewhat comparable numbers, but Loewen was a year younger and playing at one level higher.

I know Cabrera throws harder, but for whatever reason, Loewen is very hard to hit when he's not walking batters. For his career, he is averaging 7.90 H/9, compared to 8.03 H/9 for Cabrera in the minors. Last year, Loewen's GB/FB rate and K rate at Frederick were almost exactly waht DCab's were in Baltimore. Both are very tall, both have control issues, both are wildly inconsistent from one start to the next, so the comparisons are natural.

[JimPalmerJr]

I disagree a bit. The best case scenario for a top HS pitching prospect is something like Hayden Penn or Scott Kazmir, who were both in AA at the age of 20. Although Loewen was drafted out of HS, he actually didn't sign until after one year of JC. Still, I think the progress that was hoped for would have at least gotten him to Bowie by age 21. It's not even the level so much. It's more of the incosistency and troubling signs, such as the control problems he's had up until now. Even if there were no contract issue, I think we'd be having very similar discussions regarding him.

Johnson & Penn don't generate anywhere near the discussion on this board that Loewen does. It is ALL about that contract that forces him to be in the majors next year. Hopefully Angelos has learned his lesson that deferring money just for the sake of deferring it is a mistake. The only one bigger is telling a high schooler he will be in the majors in 3 years. I'd rather have the bet that a high school pitcher getting that kind of deal will only be a fringe major leaguer at best by age 27. If you're truly good enough, you will get promoted - see Penn/Markakis.

Something happened to Loewen since that first appearance in an exhibition game where he basically walked everybody. Since then the velocity is down and he lacks consistent control. "Gaz" doesn't recognize his throwing motion.

Where would Loewen be drafted if he were coming out of college today ?

Who would you be most willing to give up in a trade ?

- Penn, Liz, Erbe, or Loewen

Personally, I don't think Loewen brings much more than a borderline prospect (say Fio) in a trade. He basically projects to being a Rule V / 12th man for the bullpen next year. Hopefully he will improve from there.

[Sports Guy]

Johnson & Penn don't generate anywhere near the discussion on this board that Loewen does. It is ALL about that contract that forces him to be in the majors next year. Hopefully Angelos has learned his lesson that deferring money just for the sake of deferring it is a mistake. The only one bigger is telling a high schooler he will be in the majors in 3 years. I'd rather have the bet that a high school pitcher getting that kind of deal will only be a fringe major leaguer at best by age 27. If you're truly good enough, you will get promoted - see Penn/Markakis.

Something happened to Loewen since that first appearance in an exhibition game where he basically walked everybody. Since then the velocity is down and he lacks consistent control. "Gaz" doesn't recognize his throwing motion.

Where would Loewen be drafted if he were coming out of college today ?

Who would you be most willing to give up in a trade ?

- Penn, Liz, Erbe, or Loewen

Personally, I don't think Loewen brings much more than a borderline prospect (say Fio) in a trade. He basically projects to being a Rule V / 12th man for the bullpen next year. Hopefully he will improve from there.

LOL...That is a very humorous thing to say.

[JimPalmerJr]

Did I really have to spell out "a player from another organization similar in status to Jeff Fiorentino, but better than Ramon Nivar" ?

Bottom line you need TO DEAL with a GM on the level of Bowden or Thrift to get anything of value for Loewen right now.

[Fairfax Bird]

Bottom line you need a GM on the level of Bowden or Thrift to get anything of value for Loewen right now.

Eh?:002_sconfused: Are you serious?

[Grady]

and what did Bowden and Thrift ever win?

[Mackus]

and what did Bowden and Thrift ever win?

I think you're interpreting what JPJ is saying backwards.

[JimPalmerJr]

I think you're interpreting what JPJ is saying backwards.

Thanks. Edited the original for others.

[Sports Guy]

Did I really have to spell out "a player from another organization similar in status to Jeff Fiorentino, but better than Ramon Nivar" ?

Bottom line you need TO DEAL with a GM on the level of Bowden or Thrift to get anything of value for Loewen right now.

That is just ridiculous but your opinion of Loewen is low because of his contract, so it is not even worth discussing with you.

[JimPalmerJr]

That is just ridiculous but your opinion of Loewen is low because of his contract, so it is not even worth discussing with you.

I wish you would discuss the meat of the topic, such as:

1.) The loss of velocity since his draft.

2.) Would he be a 1st round pick with the lack of velocity and control if he were coming out this year ?

3.) Forget potential, but if your future as a GM was tied to picking 3 pitchers in the O's system that will realize major league success, would Loewen be one of them, and who would be the other 2 ?

4.) Has he earned his promotions, or is he being pushed by the contract ?

5.) What would you trade to acquire him if he was in another organization ?

While it is for different reasons than what short circuited Matt Riley's "career", I'm not the only one who sees the same career arc for Loewen. I hope it doesn't work out that way, but don't all the warning flags concern you ?

[Sports Guy]

I wish you would discuss the meat of the topic, such as:

1.) The loss of velocity since his draft.

2.) Would he be a 1st round pick with the lack of velocity and control if he were coming out this year ?

3.) Forget potential, but if your future as a GM was tied to picking 3 pitchers in the O's system that will realize major league success, would Loewen be one of them, and who would be the other 2 ?

4.) Has he earned his promotions, or is he being pushed by the contract ?

5.) What would you trade to acquire him if he was in another organization ?

While it is for different reasons than what short circuited Matt Riley's "career", I'm not the only one who sees the same career arc for Loewen. I hope it doesn't work out that way, but don't all the warning flags concern you ?

1)The loss is occuring now..LEt's see where he is in JUne.

2) No he wouldn't but so what? He also wouldn't have extremely impressive peripheral stats, a great AFL and a good showing in the WBC.

3) I would take Loewen, Penn and JJ Johnson.

4) Definitely earned them. Has not been rushed one bit.

5) That depends. Was my pitching deep? What areas am i strong in? What areas am i weak in. If he was on another team, i would want him as part of the package for Tejada(for example).

You act as if he is a failure. He is a top 50 prospect in all of baseball. Now, i am worried about his velocity but again, let me see how he is throwing in 4-6 weeks.