I sort of don't get Elias's plan

[LookitsPuck]

14 hours ago, waroriole said:

But counting on Irvin or Wells to contribute to the rotation in the off-season was not the type of move you make if you’re trying to win a WS. It’s great Suarez has been a contributor, but I could see that running its course very soon. He knew Bradish and Means were unlikely to be healthy for long. I get there were payroll limitations with previous ownership, but I don’t believe he was so hamstrung he couldn’t bring in depth for the pitching staff. Plenty of guys got 1-2 year deals and we showed no interest. Stroman, Gibson, Wacha, Lorenzen, just to name a few. 

Gibson was signed before Bradish was hurt.

Same for Wacha.

Same for Stroman.

[oriolediehard]

1 minute ago, accinfo said:

Who are you going to take off the team to add Mayo?  I am guessing the general answer here will be Urias.  He is a veteran who plays good defense.  He would have to be DFA’d.  I don’t think they are ready to do that.  Maybe after a trade they will create room.  The team is in first place 81 games into the season.  They have made good decisions so far.

So you think the O's should get rid of Mayo? You would rather keep Mateo or Urias instead?  You think if there is decision to be made "Do Nothing"?

[LookitsPuck]

5 hours ago, waroriole said:

They wouldn’t have been the 6/7 SP. They would’ve been in the OD rotation because he knew Bradish and Means weren’t gonna be in the OD rotation. 

Your options post-Bradish injury were very limited. That said, I’m on record saying Montgomery or Lorenzen would have been great contingent plans because you can’t rely on Means or Wells as a rotation arm. But maybe Elias didn’t think they were materially better than the minor league depth, Suarez, or Irvin. I disagree, but that’s that.

[accinfo]

1 minute ago, oriolediehard said:

So you think the O's should get rid of Mayo? You would rather keep Mateo or Urias instead?  You think if there is decision to be made "Do Nothing"?

I never said they should get rid of Mayo.  I hope he is a great Oriole but if he is called up tomorrow or in a month I will leave that up to Mike Elias.  If the team wasn’t succeeding then there could be an argument but right now they are and he has his reasons to keep Mateo or Urias.  

[e16bball]

21 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Your options post-Bradish injury were very limited. That said, I’m on record saying Montgomery or Lorenzen would have been great contingent plans because you can’t rely on Means or Wells as a rotation arm. But maybe Elias didn’t think they were materially better than the minor league depth, Suarez, or Irvin. I disagree, but that’s that.

We do have the benefit of almost a half-season of data at this point to give us a little insight.

ARI is paying Montgomery $25M, and he’s been one of the 5-10 most damaging pitchers in baseball thus far. Got torn apart again tonight. That one’s looking pretty good for Elias so far. 

Lorenzen has been better, at least by ERA. Everything else suggests that a collapse is coming any day now — but even a half-season of quality results would have been nice for the price. Give you the edge on this one at the moment.

[24fps]

16 hours ago, waroriole said:

But counting on Irvin or Wells to contribute to the rotation in the off-season was not the type of move you make if you’re trying to win a WS. It’s great Suarez has been a contributor, but I could see that running its course very soon. He knew Bradish and Means were unlikely to be healthy for long. I get there were payroll limitations with previous ownership, but I don’t believe he was so hamstrung he couldn’t bring in depth for the pitching staff. Plenty of guys got 1-2 year deals and we showed no interest. Stroman, Gibson, Wacha, Lorenzen, just to name a few. 

It wasn't just a payroll cap, which looks like it was pegged at $100 million, but there obviously was a prohibition against long term contracts too.  The only guaranteed contract for 2025 is $1 million for Bautista.  Elias worked in some club options for 2025 elsewhere but incurred no guaranteed payroll obligations beyond what was promised Bautista quite a while earlier.  It's clear that Angelos and Rubenstein froze a sizeable financial variable in place while tying up the rest of the terms for the sale which makes complete sense.

Does anyone really believe that Elias took a principled stand against multi-year contracts during the 2023-2024 offseason after a 101-win season?  Elias was not only hamstrung, but hogtied and locked in the trunk for most of last offseason.

Edited Friday at 03:32 by 24fps

[Cuellar35]

I almost choked when I saw the title of this post.  Elias in my humble opinion is the best GM in baseball.  He turned a laughingstock into one of the 5 best teams in the MLB.  He can't sell high?  What about the Jorge Lopez trade that netted Cano and Povich?  The Bundy trade that netted Bradish?  Weve been hit by the injury bug but we've weathered it better than Atlanta.  As opposed to us their top prospects were pitchers.  And they are relatively struggling.  Goodness the memories on this board are short.  Enjoy this. 

One last thing...who is this "ace" pitcher we can trade for?  It's easy to speak in generalities.  Who is this mysterious pitcher that will "save" our season?

[Frobby]

On 6/26/2024 at 2:20 PM, Bemorewins said:

I didn't say everything. I said a good bit.

Can you think of in your lifetime a single player who is a no-doubt about it HOF like Kershaw who has come up so small in big moments consistently? It defies logic.

 

Certainly not any big time pitchers in my lifetime have done poorly in the postseason as often as Kershaw, whose post-season ERA is a full two runs worse than his regular season ERA.   I found a few guys with a gap of 0.6 - 0.7, but that’s about it.  

[DrungoHazewood]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Certainly not any big time pitchers in my lifetime have done poorly in the postseason as often as Kershaw, whose post-season ERA is a full two runs worse than his regular season ERA.   I found a few guys with a gap of 0.6 - 0.7, but that’s about it.  

I'll guarantee you that if you ran a 150-year MLB simulation you'd find players like Kershaw even if you didn't include any code in the sim for clutch or non-clutchiness. Just like you'd find a few Eddie Murrays who'd hit 60 points of OPS higher in high leverage situations compared to low.

[bluedog]

On 6/26/2024 at 6:26 AM, gtman55 said:

First of all, I'm talking about his plan for the Orioles moving forward. I get what the front office was doing early on. Turning around a very bad team by drafting high, picking high upside college hitters the might quickly improve the club. And he's done a helluva job drafting positional talent. But I never understood his reluctance to draft top end college pitching talent.

So what we have is a minor league system system of super talented hitters who are blocked from making the bigs because there's literally too many of them. On the flip side there's little to no major league quality pitching talent at all.

Fast forward to this off-season. Elias knew damn well the odds of Means and Bradish missing significant time was pretty much 100%. We already had lost Felix for the upcoming season and Wells has a long injury history.  He also had to know Cano wasn't the heir apparent at closer or even a high leverage guy.

So what does he do? He brings in an aging Kimbrel to close. And we get Burnes. And believe me, I like Burnes but that wasn't nearly enough for a team with World Series aspirations.

And now in late June, it's coming unglued. The pitching injuries are mounting. Guys like Irvin and Suarez are showing they just don't have what it takes. We choose our best minor league arm and it's Cade Povich. I like the kid but he's a fifth starter at best.

I guess my main question in this is whether or not Elias realizes how mediocre the pitching staff currently is. And he needs to make moves ASAP because I can see things unraveling. We have the biggest surplus of trade bait in the MLB. At a minimum we need a top end starter and a top notch reliever. Time is ticking 

 

 

 

If being tied for division lead in the toughest division in baseball, leading the league in runs scored, being on pace for 100+ wins and being second in the league in run differential, while having the strongest minor league farm system in the majors is "coming unglued", then sign me up for lots more unglueing.

[bluedog]

23 hours ago, gtman55 said:

That was essentially my point in the first post. Our plan with offense has been great. I questioned Elias's pitching plan knowing Means and Bradish had elbows,Wells was unreliable  and no Felix. I just don't think Suarez off the trash heap and an aging Kimbrel plus Burnes (who is great) was enough for a WS contender. A very short sighted plan.

I'm pretty stunned that any Orioles fan would call the most successful GM in the majors (and likely in the history of the Orioles) short sighted in the middle of one of the franchises best seasons ever. The O's have PLENTY of time to address any issues with the rotation and absolutely zero reason to rush and make a foolish mistake.

The Rangers won the world series last year in large page due to trade deadline deals where they got top tier starters having strong years who solidified their rotation down the stretch. Elias is sitting in exactly that position right now but with far more prospects and useful major league players (Urias, Mateo, Hays) to work with.

I'd much prefer that Elias acquire someone pitching well at the deadline by eating a big chunk of salary to reduce the prospect cost than to have rolled the dice on FA starters this off-season and locking up large chunks of budget space we should use to extend our young players instead.

There is a reason that GMs wait until the last minute before the deadline to trade for pitching. Every day that you wait incrementally reduces the risk of an injury to the player you trade for, reduces the salary left on the pitcher's contract and gives you more data about your own teams needs and about the pitchers you are considering trading for.

And if you think Elias wasn't working on bringing in top tier starters via trades this off-season, then you weren't paying attention (Burnes!). 

How about we give Elias the benefit of the doubt and based on the mountain of evidence in front of us, assume he's competently doing his job?

Edited Friday at 12:43 by bluedog

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, bluedog said:

I'm pretty stunned that any Orioles fan would call the most successful GM in the majors (and likely in the history of the Orioles) short sighted in the middle of one of the franchises best seasons ever. The O's have PLENTY of time to address any issues with the rotation and absolutely zero reason to rush and make a foolish mistake.

The Rangers won the world series last year in large page due to trade deadline deals where they got top tier starters having strong years who solidified their rotation down the stretch. Elias is sitting in exactly that position right now but with far more prospects and useful major league players (Urias, Mateo, Hays) to work with.

I'd much prefer that Elias acquire someone pitching well at the deadline by eating a big chunk of salary to reduce the prospect cost than to have rolled the dice on FA starters this off-season and locking up large chunks of budget space we should use to extend our young players instead.

There is a reason that GMs wait until the last minute before the deadline to trade for pitching. Every day that you wait incrementally reduces the risk of an injury to the player you trade for, reduces the salary left on the pitcher's contract and gives you more data about your own teams needs and about the pitchers you are considering trading for.

And if you think Elias wasn't working on bringing in top tier starters via trades this off-season, then you weren't paying attention (Burnes!). 

How about we give Elias the benefit of the doubt and based on the mountain of evidence in front of us, assume he's competently doing his job?

I don't think Paul Richards gets the respect he deserves.

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think Paul Richards gets the respect he deserves.

I’m old and I don’t even remember the Paul Richard’s days.  Frankly, when I was 9-12 I had no idea who the GM was and that was Harry Dalton who was no slouch either.

[Too Tall]

I'm older and I remember. The days of the $5,000. bonus babies. Built the Baby Birds of the late 50's. Foundation for 60's and 70's. Different time all together. I think Elias is at least in their company and probably had a harder pull to get from '18 to now. Elias has my total respect.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m old and I don’t even remember the Paul Richard’s days.  Frankly, when I was 9-12 I had no idea who the GM was and that was Harry Dalton who was no slouch either.

But we can read.  (Yes I know these are all sadly out of print and expensive and no, I haven't read the first one)

https://www.amazon.com/Modern-Baseball-Strategy-Paul-Richard/dp/B000OM8WTK

https://www.amazon.com/Wizard-Waxahachie-Richards-Baseball-American/dp/0870745565

 

Project Muse version of the second title.

https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/17/article/214478/pdf

 

Edited Friday at 13:11 by Can_of_corn