Trading for Tarik Skubal

[Keygans]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think you’re close but I don’t think the Tigers do it without a better #2 piece.  I don’t think a Basallo package with the #2 piece being Norby, Bradfield, or whoever gets it done.  
 

I do think the Red Sox could make a run with Mayer, Anthony, and Teel but I don’t think they will.   
 

 

I think the Red Sox might be involved too, but not sure they part with Mayer and Anthony. . . All comes down to which prospects the Tigers like more.       Honestly I don’t think there’s any chance they move him, so this is all just an exercise in futility and fun. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Keygans said:

I think the Red Sox might be involved too, but not sure they part with Mayer and Anthony. . . All comes down to which prospects the Tigers like more.       Honestly I don’t think there’s any chance they move him, so this is all just an exercise in futility and fun. 

If I’m the Tigers I want players who play premium positions.  If they see Holliday as a capable SS and Basallo as a future C, those would be my top two asks.   With the Red Sox top 3, you have a SS, maybe CF, and a catcher.

[e16bball]

Would love to see the Red Sox offload 2/3 of that Mayer, Teel, Anthony group (plus more) to bring in an already-arb SP.

Skubal is awesome, but Boston is the competitor that I think is best-positioned to do what we’ve done: develop and deploy a core of elite young position player talents that will carry the team for years. Those three guys plus Casas and maybe Rafaela (plus other MiL guys like Kristian Campbell and Miguel Bleis) make up a pretty formidable group of young talent — and then you add in Duran and Devers, who are both stars at the age of 27. 

That’s an extremely imposing core of talent, so I think it would be great if they went all Preller on some current superstar and blew a few big holes in that grim picture of the future.

[GoldGlove21]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

That’s fine.  Doesn’t change my point.  No way the Tigers trade Skubal for one prospect even if his name is Jackson Holliday.

GM's can't make that deal because if a single prospect falters (no matter how highly regarded they were) it is a huge failure. If he gets Holliday plus three others, he distributes the risk a bit. The top guy can fail and they can still make it in the long run. That is why the Orioles shouldn't make the deal, IMO. Why do we have to overpay because our prospects are so good? If the Yankees start a package with Spencer for example, that is their #2 prospect who is like 67th overall. This would be like the Orioles have used Joey Ortiz as a trade package headliner last year. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

The Tigers can’t risk getting just one great prospect.   That’s why you see “they would need to be blown away” to trade Skubal.   No way Holliday gets Skubal straight up.  You might not have to include Basallo or Mayo but I’d expect 2 or 3 other really good prospects and even 1-2 lotto tickets.

If anyone want two of the big-3 than I can understand Elias going in a different direction. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, GoldGlove21 said:

GM's can't make that deal because if a single prospect falters (no matter how highly regarded they were) it is a huge failure. If he gets Holliday plus three others, he distributes the risk a bit. The top guy can fail and they can still make it in the long run. That is why the Orioles shouldn't make the deal, IMO. Why do we have to overpay because our prospects are so good? If the Yankees start a package with Spencer for example, that is their #2 prospect who is like 67th overall. This would be like the Orioles have used Joey Ortiz as a trade package headliner last year. 

The Tigers aren’t stupid, hopefully.    They’d be idiots to take a deal headlined by Spencer.   Heck, I wouldn’t want him as the #2.   A Yankee package would have to include Dominguez and 2-3 of their best pitching prospects.   Arias, another overrated Yankee prospect, is probably more desirable as the #2.  He’s only striking out 30% in A ball.  Lol

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, GoldGlove21 said:

GM's can't make that deal because if a single prospect falters (no matter how highly regarded they were) it is a huge failure. If he gets Holliday plus three others, he distributes the risk a bit. The top guy can fail and they can still make it in the long run. That is why the Orioles shouldn't make the deal, IMO. Why do we have to overpay because our prospects are so good? If the Yankees start a package with Spencer for example, that is their #2 prospect who is like 67th overall. This would be like the Orioles have used Joey Ortiz as a trade package headliner last year. 

I also think people are over estimating our farm system. Once you get outside of the Big-3, Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg the system takes a nose dive for prospect/young player value (assuming Gunnar and Adley are untouchable). I've been trying to say this to anyone who will listen that the well is running drier then people think. Now maybe this draft brings in another impact guy, but there are no additional impact prospects in the system right now unless one of the lottery International guys suddenly pop. 

This is why we have to hope Detroit will take someone like Basallo and maybe Stower/Norby along with Povich/Baumiester kind of trade for Skubel. Two and half years of Skubel is extremely valuable but not two or 3 Big-3 valuable.

[OriolesMagic83]

31 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I also think people are over estimating our farm system. Once you get outside of the Big-3, Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg the system takes a nose dive for prospect/young player value (assuming Gunnar and Adley are untouchable). I've been trying to say this to anyone who will listen that the well is running drier then people think. Now maybe this draft brings in another impact guy, but there are no additional impact prospects in the system right now unless one of the lottery International guys suddenly pop. 

This is why we have to hope Detroit will take someone like Basallo and maybe Stower/Norby along with Povich/Baumiester kind of trade for Skubel. Two and half years of Skubel is extremely valuable but not two or 3 Big-3 valuable.

I think that even with the best farm system, sustained success is extremely hard w/o either trading away vets w/ control or spending large amounts of cash.  I guess we'll find out if Rubenstein spends major cash this offseason.  Buying an ace every offseason with prospects is not really sustainable.  If the O's trade for Skubal or Crochet or another ace, they need to sign them to a long term deal.  It's extra money, but it's also preserving prospect capital.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

If anyone want two of the big-3 than I can understand Elias going in a different direction. 

I can understand a GM asking …it depends what happens when they here No.

[GoldGlove21]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I also think people are over estimating our farm system. Once you get outside of the Big-3, Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg the system takes a nose dive for prospect/young player value (assuming Gunnar and Adley are untouchable). I've been trying to say this to anyone who will listen that the well is running drier then people think. Now maybe this draft brings in another impact guy, but there are no additional impact prospects in the system right now unless one of the lottery International guys suddenly pop. 

This is why we have to hope Detroit will take someone like Basallo and maybe Stower/Norby along with Povich/Baumiester kind of trade for Skubel. Two and half years of Skubel is extremely valuable but not two or 3 Big-3 valuable.

The fact that we need upgrades at 2B, 3B, RP, RF, SP, and possibly 1B in 2025 might be reason not trade Mayo, Basallo, or Holliday if you are Mike Elias. I don't know what we are going to do, but we will probably destroy our minor league depth if we get Skubal+. I hope we get him, but I also kind of hope that we do not in terms of the capital we would need to give up.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I also think people are over estimating our farm system. Once you get outside of the Big-3, Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg the system takes a nose dive for prospect/young player value (assuming Gunnar and Adley are untouchable). I've been trying to say this to anyone who will listen that the well is running drier then people think. Now maybe this draft brings in another impact guy, but there are no additional impact prospects in the system right now unless one of the lottery International guys suddenly pop. 

This is why we have to hope Detroit will take someone like Basallo and maybe Stower/Norby along with Povich/Baumiester kind of trade for Skubel. Two and half years of Skubel is extremely valuable but not two or 3 Big-3 valuable.

I THINK you are right but I have heard some other prospect evaluators talk about the system being deep. I think the preception of the system’s depth is better than you think it is (I happen to agree with your take)

And as I have said, I think a big key is how do teams view Povich.

Either way, the Os clearly have enough to acquire most of the talent that is available and that’s what is important.

[sportsfan8703]

20 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I want to get my 2 cents in before it's too late. All this talk and suggestions of trading Basallo, Mayo, Kjersted, or Holliday for Skubal makes me thing those people are out of their dang minds.

We traded less hyped/ranked (although proving to be successful) prospects to get a far superior pitcher in Corbin Burnes. There is absolutely no reason to give up the farm for a Pitcher who happens to be the most recent flavor of the month for fans of trade rumors like they did for Dylan Cease.

There comes a point when the price becomes too much, and you've got to know where that line is and stick to it. Skuball is a career 3.5 ERA pitcher. He might be having a great season, but he's a #3 in our rotation and we are should not act desperate.

Gotta love comping Skubal to Cease and then Cease throwing a no hitter.  

[Billy F-Face3]

19 hours ago, KojiSplit said:

Yet, this is the time of the year where some GM’s get desperate, especially AJ Preller and make terrible decisions as they look to do anything to keep their hopes alive of winning the World Series.

Skubal happens to be the “shiniest object” for sale but just like the last “must want” toy available in inventory  on Christmas Eve, the price will always be very high. Someone may do anything to get their prize but a smarter shopper may say hey I’ll be able to get Bassitt and Snell for cheaper than one Skubal.

We shall see what happens soon enough.

I agree with this 100%. This is better said to the point I am trying to get across.

[Billy F-Face3]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You do realize that was because Burnes was in the last year of contract and Skubel has two more years of control after this playoff run. So the Orioles get Skubel for three post seasons vs one so he's going to cost more. 

At the end of the day, this is about winning a World Series. Skubel makes this team more of a World Series contender than Holliday, Mayo or Basallo does. 

None of us want to trade the big-3, but the Orioles need an impact pitcher. Now maybe they will find one that doesn't cost them one of the Big-3, but they will be a rental and then next year the Orioles will be going into the offseason with just Grayson and Kremer penciled into the rotation in 2025.

Trading top teir (young young young) MLB prospects for a pitcher in who has only gone over 119 Innings once in his 4 years when he has exceeded that this already season is a recipe for disaster. The moment he gets traded, something will happen that slows him down.

You get desperate and you make bad decisions.

Even if Skubal was a reigning Cy Young winner that you can feel confident about, he only affects one half game (5 innings) every 5 days. He will have no affect on the outcome of the remaining 4 game out of 5.

He is not worth selling the farm for. That it just desperate.

[EddeeEddee]

5 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Trading top teir (young young young) MLB prospects for a pitcher in who has only gone over 119 Innings once in his 4 years when he has exceeded that this already season is a recipe for disaster. The moment he gets traded, something will happen that slows him down.

You get desperate and you make bad decisions.

Even if Skubal was a reigning Cy Young winner that you can feel confident about, he only affects one half game (5 innings) every 5 days. He will have no affect on the outcome of the remaining 4 game out of 5.

He is not worth selling the farm for. That it just desperate.

Skubal may not be the guy, but your suggestion that great starting pitching can be shrugged off -- because they only play every 5 days -- is ludicrous.  It's like saying any spare part can be plugged in for Corbin Burnes when he walks after the season is over.  I could say Gunnar Henderson is not that important because he only comprises one ninth of the offense.

Great Oriole teams were stuffed with great starters.  Bad Orioles teams may have good hitting but had starting rotations assembled of spare parts.  Pretty much true across the league.