Trading for Tarik Skubal

[Allan Bryant]

26 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

He's healthy and at peak value. Waiting only limits what they will get from here. AND they are not going to be in a position to seriously compete with him on the roster this season, next season or in 26'. Their offense is terrible and their best position player prospect is 19 at A ball. And the kid they just took in the draft - the same. 

Again, they are a ways away IMO from being the best version of themselves in the foreseeable future. And that team most probably does not include Tarik Skubal.

BE , agree with your point about the Tigers’ chances of winning this year, 2025 or 2026 . One thing I thinking about is…….maybe Tigers might use “we want to extend him and him a career Tiger “ as an excuse. Just a thought 

[terpoh]

To everyone thinking we should, or may have to, give up multiple top 15 prospects for Skubal- please read this article:

https://www.milb.com/news/toolshed-10-biggest-prospect-trades-of-the-decade-301375392

Basically outlines the biggest "prospect for stud" trades from 2008 to 2018. There is not any case of any team giving up more than one top 10 prospect in a trade, and for guys who, at the time, were more successful than Skubal. Giving up Multiple of Basallo/Holliday/Mayo would be unheard of- and a big overpay. The trades in the article align pretty well with a package of:

Basallo

Choice of Fabian/Beavers/Bradfield/Norby

Choice of Povich/McDermott/Johnson

Plus Lower level, high potential type of player or 2.

 

 

Some notable trades for pitchers from the article:

- Chris Sale for #1, #67, two unranked guys. Chris Sale was also a 5 time all star at the time and had finished in the top 5 in Cy Young Voting for 5 consecutive years.

- Shelby Miller plus for #10, #61, and unranked guy

- Jose Quintana for #5, #58 and two unranked guys

- Cole Hamels plus for #51, #55, #59 plus

- James Shields plus for #3, #30, 2 unranked guys

 

I think that we would be offering more than enough with Basallo and a number of other good prospect options (Not Mayo/Holliday/Kjerstad) based on previous these trades. You could argue we would have to include Kjerstad or Cowser, but that would also limit what we offer in addition.

Edited July 17 by terpoh

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Keygans said:

You are right.  But, we have a lot of the pieces, and I think it is time to roll the dice.   Every pitcher breaks, and hopefully since he has broken twice already, we can avoid the third time with him.  And ... if he breaks again, at least we took the shot and went for the title... and it hasn't bled the system entirely dry. 

Everything you say here makes sense..but do you roll the dice with elite prospects when you can get someone else and build your pen up and not trade those guys?

[HowAboutThat]

20 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Can you name all of those “several teams” besides the O’s?

I haven’t looked, but the Dodgers certainly have a deep system. Don’t know of any others. But if the Orioles are the only team that could meet that price, that means the tigers would have to deal with us or nobody, which means they’d have to lower their price, because if they are insisting something that only one team can pay, and the team declines to pay it, either take a smaller return or keep the asset.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Fedde, Eflin and Bassitt are all under control for 1.5 years. Eflin and Bassitt are $18m and $21m next year, which will bring down their trade value - Fedde still pretty cheap at $7.5m. I’d much rather hold onto the top 4 prospects and get one of these guys, even if they still come fairly expensive in prospect capital.

Kikuchi is a pure rental, as is Flaherty. I don’t want to pay what Flaherty will cost, but both are adequate playoff starters this year.

Littell and Quantril are 1.5 year guys but more #4 starters. But more SPs may shake loose from the Rangers, Cubs or others, and MIA and LAA should be open for business with some more controllable arms as well. 

Skubal or Crochet are a huge risk, and their price is going to be very high because they’re also controllable on cheap contracts. But the Orioles should have phenomenal payroll flexibility, particularly if they keep their top 4 prospects, so I don’t like the idea of paying a premium for cheap controlled SP years. I’m all for seeing if they can get a reasonable price for Skubal or Crochet, but I don’t expect those teams to be reasonable in their asks. If not the Orioles are better off bolster this year’s team with rentals and future teams by boosting the payroll. 

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Boston could do it. They are the one team I could see saying F it, we are pushing in all of our chips.

Their offense isn't championship level IMO. Even if they add Skubal, I don't see them winning a World Series. 

But I will give you Boston as being the one other team. But the poster said several teams.

[clapdiddy]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Everything you say here makes sense..but do you roll the dice with elite prospects when you can get someone else and build your pen up and not trade those guys?

Been thinking about what I said earlier (going in for Skubal) and I think you may be right.   If you can add a guy like Fedde and a couple of very good BP arms, that might actually help this team more.

[sportsfan8703]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Boston could do it. They are the one team I could see saying F it, we are pushing in all of our chips.

And that is the scary thing with Skubal.  It's not only a matter of what if we don't trade for him?  It's what if the Yankees/Red Sox/Astros do?  

I mean we spent all offseason thinking that it was Cease or bust.  Elias got Burnes for much less than what any of us had really imagined.  

It's going to be an interesting two weeks for sure.  

[Rbiggs2525]

3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Fedde, Eflin and Bassitt are all under control for 1.5 years. Eflin and Bassitt are $18m and $21m next year, which will bring down their trade value - Fedde still pretty cheap at $7.5m. I’d much rather hold onto the top 4 prospects and get one of these guys, even if they still come fairly expensive in prospect capital.

Kikuchi is a pure rental, as is Flaherty. I don’t want to pay what Flaherty will cost, but both are adequate playoff starters this year.

Littell and Quantril are 1.5 year guys but more #4 starters. But more SPs may shake loose from the Rangers, Cubs or others, and MIA and LAA should be open for business with some more controllable arms as well. 

Skubal or Crochet are a huge risk, and their price is going to be very high because they’re also controllable on cheap contracts. But the Orioles should have phenomenal payroll flexibility, particularly if they keep their top 4 prospects, so I don’t like the idea of paying a premium for cheap controlled SP years. I’m all for seeing if they can get a reasonable price for Skubal or Crochet, but I don’t expect those teams to be reasonable in their asks. If not the Orioles are better off bolster this year’s team with rentals and future teams by boosting the payroll. 

Couldn’t have said it better. If it’s Chris Sale back when Boston traded for him or even Corbin Burnes with 2.5 years of control. I’d do it and not think twice about it. These guys have tremendous risk involved and little track record. 

[terpoh]

6 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Fedde, Eflin and Bassitt are all under control for 1.5 years. Eflin and Bassitt are $18m and $21m next year, which will bring down their trade value - Fedde still pretty cheap at $7.5m. I’d much rather hold onto the top 4 prospects and get one of these guys, even if they still come fairly expensive in prospect capital.

Kikuchi is a pure rental, as is Flaherty. I don’t want to pay what Flaherty will cost, but both are adequate playoff starters this year.

Littell and Quantril are 1.5 year guys but more #4 starters. But more SPs may shake loose from the Rangers, Cubs or others, and MIA and LAA should be open for business with some more controllable arms as well. 

Skubal or Crochet are a huge risk, and their price is going to be very high because they’re also controllable on cheap contracts. But the Orioles should have phenomenal payroll flexibility, particularly if they keep their top 4 prospects, so I don’t like the idea of paying a premium for cheap controlled SP years. I’m all for seeing if they can get a reasonable price for Skubal or Crochet, but I don’t expect those teams to be reasonable in their asks. If not the Orioles are better off bolster this year’s team with rentals and future teams by boosting the payroll. 

Would you rather have Bassitt for 1.5 years or Berrios/Gausman for 2.5?

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

BE , agree with your point about the Tigers’ chances of winning this year, 2025 or 2026 . One thing I thinking about is…….maybe Tigers might use “we want to extend him and him a career Tiger “ as an excuse. Just a thought 

That could be. But would be equally egregious and potentially franchise damaging IMO. He is nowhere near accomplished enough to view in that light. And he is a pitcher, meaning the likelihood of injury is very high. Investing long term with any pitcher is not a great proposition in terms of value. The competitive teams/contenders are more apt to live with that risk given the potential rewards that can be reaped.

The Tigers on the other hand need offense in droves as their current one is not very good. Again I think they would be foolish to hang out to a player for sentimental value instead of trying to invest in the possibility of their competitive future.

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, terpoh said:

Would you rather have Bassitt for 1.5 years or Berrios/Gausman for 2.5?

Berrios is really good.  Evidenced by his two dominant starts versus us.  If he were available, I'd have to put him above Skubal.  

This is what we need to happen.  Having more pitchers hit the market.  

[Rbiggs2525]

3 minutes ago, terpoh said:

Would you rather have Bassitt for 1.5 years or Berrios/Gausman for 2.5?

Toronto could be a lame duck situation like we did back with Duquette and Buck. 

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, terpoh said:

To everyone thinking we should, or may have to, give up multiple top 15 prospects for Skubal- please read this article:

https://www.milb.com/news/toolshed-10-biggest-prospect-trades-of-the-decade-301375392

Basically outlines the biggest "prospect for stud" trades from 2008 to 2018. There is not any case of any team giving up more than one top 10 prospect in a trade, and for guys who, at the time, were more successful than Skubal. Giving up Multiple of Basallo/Holliday/Mayo would be unheard of- and a big overpay. The trades in the article align pretty well with a package of:

Basallo

Choice of Fabian/Beavers/Bradfield/Norby

Choice of Povich/McDermott/Johnson

Plus Lower level, high potential type of player or 2.

 

 

Some notable trades for pitchers from the article:

- Chris Sale for #1, #67, two unranked guys. Chris Sale was also a 5 time all star at the time and had finished in the top 5 in Cy Young Voting for 5 consecutive years.

- Shelby Miller plus for #10, #61, and unranked guy

- Jose Quintana for #5, #58 and two unranked guys

- Cole Hamels plus for #51, #55, #59 plus

- James Shields plus for #3, #30, 2 unranked guys

 

I think that we would be offering more than enough with Basallo and a number of other good prospect options (Not Mayo/Holliday/Kjerstad) based on previous these trades. You could argue we would have to include Kjerstad or Cowser, but that would also limit what we offer in addition.

Thank you for taking the time to provide historical context with facts providing a realistic expectation of return.

I hope that this proves that their is no scenario where a Skubal acquisition nukes our future by forcing us to give up "the entire farm".

[CaptainRedbeard]

3 minutes ago, terpoh said:

Would you rather have Bassitt for 1.5 years or Berrios/Gausman for 2.5?

All of the above, but I don’t think Toronto will trade Berrios/Gausman. They want to be competitive next year, they may not even trade Bassitt - only reason I think they may consider Bassitt is because that would free up his $21m salary for this offseason.