Trading for Tarik Skubal

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, GoldGlove21 said:

People who are offering up trades like Mayo/Holliday and Basallo are just silly. A pitcher is currently the odds of favor to win a CY Young this late in the season has never been traded as far as I know. That trade would suck because we are paying more for what he has done before potentially joining our team. We are ignoring the risk that comes with him and that, like Burnes, he will probably be too expensive for us to extend in 2.5 years. And the price for that is more in prospect capital than any other team has ever paid for a starting pitcher. People just do not understand that the Yankees Spencer Jones (haven't seen any trade proposals that include Dominguez and Jones) is not anywhere near the prospect that Holliday, Mayo, or Basallo is at this point. Basically Spencer Jones is Joey Ortiz as far as rankings were concerned. If the trade packages were Dominguez/Jones vs. Mayo/Basallo for example, our package would trump theirs. But it is breaking news that the Yankees would consider moving Jones for Skubal, lol.

This Spencer Jones stuff is killing me.  We think Basallo, at 19, is having a disappointing year with a .782 OPS.   Spencer Jones, at 23, is hitting .243, .729 OPS and striking out 37% of the time.    If he was an Oriole prospect we’d be writing him off.   

[Sports Guy]

Bowden’s latest Q&A for The Athletic:

I’d love for the Orioles to acquire Tarik Skubal, even if it means dealing Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo with other talent. But is it realistic to expect the Tigers to trade a young ace like Skubal? — Eric L.

I think if the Orioles offered a package that included Heston Kjerstad or Colton Cowser, Mayo and Cade Povich, it would be hard for the Tigers to turn down based on where they are in their rebuilding process. (If I’m the Orioles, I’m not trading my top two prospects, Jackson Holliday or Basallo, in that package.) It would be a steep price to pay for Baltimore, but worth it to be able to have a postseason rotation of Corbin Burnes, Skubal and Grayson Rodriguez.

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Bowden’s latest Q&A for The Athletic:

I’d love for the Orioles to acquire Tarik Skubal, even if it means dealing Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo with other talent. But is it realistic to expect the Tigers to trade a young ace like Skubal? — Eric L.

I think if the Orioles offered a package that included Heston Kjerstad or Colton Cowser, Mayo and Cade Povich, it would be hard for the Tigers to turn down based on where they are in their rebuilding process. (If I’m the Orioles, I’m not trading my top two prospects, Jackson Holliday or Basallo, in that package.) It would be a steep price to pay for Baltimore, but worth it to be able to have a postseason rotation of Corbin Burnes, Skubal and Grayson Rodriguez.

I don’t think the Tigers would go for a Kjerstad + Mayo package because of the lack of defensive value.   Cowser and Mayo makes a little more sense for the Tigers.   Each is a hefty price and still might not be enough as I think they’ll insist on Holliday.

[SouthRider]

I would rather have 6 years of Holliday/Mayo and  5 years of Kjerstad/Cowser/Povich than 2.5 years of Skubal.   Like Burnes, Skubal is a Boras client.  We have enough of Boras' clients we won't be able to pay.  

I get that Skubal makes us close favorites for the remainder of this season.  What if they still lay an egg like the favored Ravens did last season?  They already lost one all-star level talent in Ortiz.  I get the risk/reward on the Burnes trade at the time. 

Trade for a Flaherty type for this season and deal with pitching woes in the offseason. 

 

[webbrick2010]

2 minutes ago, SouthRider said:

I would rather have 6 years of Holliday/Mayo and  5 years of Kjerstad/Cowser/Povich than 2.5 years of Skubal.   Like Burnes, Skubal is a Boras client.  We have enough of Boras' clients we won't be able to pay.  

I get that Skubal makes us close favorites for the remainder of this season.  What if they still lay an egg like the favored Ravens did last season?  They already lost one all-star level talent in Ortiz.  I get the risk/reward on the Burnes trade at the time. 

Trade for a Flaherty type for this season and deal with pitching woes in the offseason. 

 

It's always wait until next year

meanwhile the value of our blocked prospects declines, as well as our reasonable cost veterans (Mullin, Mountcastle, Urias, etc).

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

It's always wait until next year

meanwhile the value of our blocked prospects declines, as well as our reasonable cost veterans (Mullin, Mountcastle, Urias, etc).

You know the old saying, Slow and steady gets bounced in the first round.

[Hank Scorpio]

You don't trade Ortiz & Hall for 1 year of Burnes if you're not all in. 

I would be surprised if Elias didn't take a legit stab at this.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Hank Scorpio said:

You don't trade Ortiz & Hall for 1 year of Burnes if you're not all in. 

I would be surprised if Elias didn't take a legit stab at this.

You don't stop at picking up 2024 Kimbrel if you are all in.

The Burnes move was great but he traded surplus for an expiring contract.  That's not an all in move.  That's more of a call than an all in.

[e16bball]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's be clear here, until they came to Baltimore, they didn't ship off or trade anyone. They were not in anything other than advisory positions to the GM who made the trades in the other organizations. Saying that, I do think Sig is on record as saying he's a hoarder of minor league talent.

Sure, totally agree with you there. But they were definitely contributors to the thinktank there, and they assuredly have taken a lot from Luhnow and the rest of the gang there. 

And we now have over half a decade of data from Baltimore. If we were back in the year 2020, I would say “not enough information, we don’t know yet what they’ll do or how they’ll operate separate from the rest of that group.” But it’s been a while now, and I just haven’t seen anything that leads me to believe they’ll trade one or more players that they have drafted and developed into an elite prospect. Have you? I’m not asking to be a jerk, I’m honestly curious if you’ve seen anything different that leads you to believe that is something they’d do. 

If they have a major flaw as a group, I think it’s that they’re more than a little rigid. This last draft really hammered home the point that they know what they think is the best approach and they’re not going to diverge from that path, regardless of the circumstances (or the momentary needs of the organization). I think this makes them frustrating at times, but also very easy to predict. 

The common thread in every major buy-side trade they’ve been a part of in 17 years is buying low on proven assets. The Cardinals grabbed Holliday in that weird period where the A’s had gotten him but ended up not wanting to keep him. The Astros picked up Carlos Gomez in the middle of an injury-plagued year where he’d taken a step back from his previous all-star status. They snagged Verlander at the August deadline when his fastball was down and his ERA was up. They stole Cole when he was coming off a down year and approaching FA. And the O’s nabbed Burnes in a similar posture.

Skubal is the opposite of all those guys. He’s not quite as proven (or durable) as their typical trade target, and he’s at the absolute highest point of his value right now. I just don’t see them talking themselves into “buying high” on a guy, especially when the cost is so astronomical.

If I was trying to make an educated guess about who fits their usual mold, someone like Sandy Alcantara in the offseason would make a lot of sense. But right now…maybe Luis Castillo? His numbers are down across the board, he’s sliding down the rotation in Seattle (from ace to maybe #4 now?), but he’s also a proven commodity who is a pretty sure bet to give you almost 200 innings every year. Could they work a deal involving some MLB offensive pieces (in addition to prospect value of course) to pry Castillo loose? That would be a pretty Elias/Sig move.

Edited July 24 by e16bball

[Rbiggs2525]

Imagine the Tigers fans drooling over trading us Skubal for a haul and signing Burnes or Fried in offseason.

[e16bball]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

This Spencer Jones stuff is killing me.  We think Basallo, at 19, is having a disappointing year with a .782 OPS.   Spencer Jones, at 23, is hitting .243, .729 OPS and striking out 37% of the time.    If he was an Oriole prospect we’d be writing him off.   

I was going through some old prospect rankings as it related to Elias/Sig trades last night. 

One thing that stood out so very glaringly was with regard to the deal where the Astros got Brian McCann from the Yankees. They traded Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman to NYY. 

At the time of the deal, neither guy was on the prospect ranking radar at all. But after joining NYY, they both quickly became top 100 prospects. Yes, they both had good seasons in 2017 — but it was just another example of how the sun shines a little more brightly (and a lot more quickly) on NYY prospects who show anything in the minors.

[Just Regular]

17 minutes ago, SouthRider said:

I would rather have 6 years of Holliday/Mayo and  5 years of Kjerstad/Cowser/Povich than 2.5 years of Skubal.   Like Burnes, Skubal is a Boras client.  We have enough of Boras' clients we won't be able to pay.  

I am hoping for 6.3 years of Holliday/Mayo starting July 31st in the Toronto series finale.    One source gives Kikuchi as the TOR probable that day, but if he pitches that day it is maybe as likely for us as for them.

All the posturing will be over.    Maybe demand for bats and creativity results in a Mullins, O'Hearn or Mountcastle deal from the top of the deck, never mind Urias.

One week from today it isn't impossible a lineup could be:

SS Gunnar, C Adley, RF Santander, 1B O'Hearn, 3B Westburg, LF Kjerstad, DH Mayo, CF Cowser, 2B Holliday

Granted It would be an unprecedented simultaneous rookie integration tax but however thorough SIGBOT's models are, the differences between AAA and MLB play I believe make it unclear how good Mayo/Holliday could be this October without data like that.

You could always do like Cowser in July-August 2023 and option them back to Norfolk after 36-44 service days if they don't look promising. 

[Just Regular]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't stop at picking up 2024 Kimbrel if you are all in.

The Burnes move was great but he traded surplus for an expiring contract.  That's not an all in move.  That's more of a call than an all in.

When was Elias hired - November 2018?    A tight aggressive check-raise move has been almost 6 years in the making.

Scott and Puk with Skubal and Crochet are a strong quartet of the world's best LHP this season.    It probably entails some equity loss to yield them all to other championship contenders.

It'd be asking a lot of Gunnar Henderson to drag the roster past all those guys in various postseason rounds.    He looked kinda feeble against Puk last night.

[sportsfan8703]

14 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

One week from today it isn't impossible a lineup could be:

SS Gunnar, C Adley, RF Santander, 1B O'Hearn, 3B Westburg, LF Kjerstad, DH Mayo, CF Cowser, 2B Holliday

This could be our lineup post deadline if we don't get Skubal.  I'm not in a hurry to get the marginal prospect return that Mullins and Mountcastle would bring.  Isn't everyone tired of selling???  I mean theoretically we could hit the Straight Flush and trade Mounty/Mullins for Woo, but look up the odds on a Straight Flush.  

Deadlines make deals.  Unless we get Skubal, this thing is going down to the wire.  I just hope things break right for us.  

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

This could be our lineup post deadline if we don't get Skubal.  I'm not in a hurry to get the marginal prospect return that Mullins and Mountcastle would bring.  Isn't everyone tired of selling???  I mean theoretically we could hit the Straight Flush and trade Mounty/Mullins for Woo, but look up the odds on a Straight Flush.  

Deadlines make deals.  Unless we get Skubal, this thing is going down to the wire.  I just hope things break right for us.  

It could be our post deadline lineup if we do get Skubal as well with presumably Basallo anchoring.   If I'm Elias I am pushing for Casey Mize too should Basallo be made available.

Or, protecting all of the Big 3, is Kjerstad, EBJ, Povich and McDermott a deal Getz or Harris would pass up?