AL playoff picture

[Hey now]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

First off, welcome to the Hangout.

It's hard to see this team doing anything in the playoffs as they've pretty much imploded this September when we hoped they would turn it back on.

I mean, we never know, but unless a miracle turn around occurs, whoever gets the Orioles in the first round is going to have it fairly easy.

Thanks for the welcome.  I am praying for a miracle that they turn it around, but I am not holding my breath.

[Moose Milligan]

baseball reference has the playoff odds for us at 98.2% today.

[Sports Guy]

I love this whole concept that we are playing bad and can’t win a series…are you guys seeing what’s happening in KC and Minnesota?

[turtlebowl]

I am sure that the struggles and playoff anxiety is working hand in hand with this collapse.  The team lost its youthful exuberance somewhere in the second 1/2 and they just can't find themselves. 

Saying that, the pitching has been solid recently and all they need to do is win a few games to limp into the playoffs.   I'm hoping at that point they can take a deep breath and get back to that loose arrogance they had.  I think in this case being young may help them reset for the playoffs.  

[Spakman]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I love this whole concept that we are playing bad and can’t win a series…are you guys seeing what’s happening in KC and Minnesota?

Yeah, people are acting like the other wildcard teams are doing so amazing. Certain aspects of the collapse are humorous but some of these people are delusional and thinking we’re not gonna make the playoffs. Win three games you’re in

[JR Oriole]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I love this whole concept that we are playing bad and can’t win a series…are you guys seeing what’s happening in KC and Minnesota?

Those teams are struggling as well, no doubt.  But in the last 12 games, they have scored 53 and 52 runs respectively while we have scored 24 runs, which is 18 fewer than the Cardinals in 29th place at 42 runs.  So other teams may be having challenges, but no team has put as much pressure on their pitching staff as we have with an offense that has completely fallen apart. I've been following the Os for 40 years, and I have never seen an offense struggle this much just to plate a few runs.  Even our awful teams could hang 8 spots on other teams down the stretch every once in awhile. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, JR Oriole said:

Those teams are struggling as well, no doubt.  But in the last 12 games, they have scored 53 and 52 runs respectively while we have scored 24 runs, which is 18 fewer than the Cardinals in 29th place at 42 runs.  So other teams may be having challenges, but no team has put as much pressure on their pitching staff as we have with an offense that has completely fallen apart. I've been following the Os for 40 years, and I have never seen an offense struggle this much just to plate a few runs.  Even our awful teams could hang 8 spots on other teams down the stretch every once in awhile. 

They also have a 235 BABiP in that time frame…which is way below average and 16 points less than the 29th ranked team.

They have just had a lot of bad luck in the second half of this season.

[bpilktree67]

3 hours ago, Warehouse said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-tiebreaker-rules

This says third tiebreaker is effectively intra-league league, which we can still lose to the Twins.

Yeah it looks like it goes to the entire league not just opposite division.  We will hold the tie breaker over either the Twins or Tigers with 2 wins though if we take two out of three vs the Tigers that will make us 3-3 vs them or a win vs the Twins or the Yankees.  

[LookitsPuck]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They also have a 235 BABiP in that time frame…which is way below average and 16 points less than the 29th ranked team.

They have just had a lot of bad luck in the second half of this season.

I'm actually less impressed with the luck designation here. While I definitely think they've had *some* bad luck, for example: Gunnar's 3 run dinger robbed by Jose Siri, this club doesn't really drive the ball well enough that BABIP is much of an indicator for them. It'd be different, say, if this team 1-9 had their regulars, but they are starting guys who are just hitting things weakly which would mean a lower BABIP but not indicative of "bad luck".

Luck doesn't explain how abysmal this team has been over the last 30+ days. 

They are 26th in OBP. That isn't luck.

They are 21st in stolen bases. Not luck. Just not a dynamic team here.

They are 29th in batting average with THE GIANTS 28th. Some luck here, sure, but not this bad.

They are 28th in OPS. Some luck here, sure, but not this bad.

They are 28th in slugging. Some luck here, sure, but not this bad.

I think we just need to say it. This is a bad offensive team. O'Hearn exposed as a regular, Mayo and Holliday are overmatched, Eloy turned back into a pumpkin, Slater as well.

Point be told, while there might be some bad luck with guys like Adley or Gunnar, there's not much of an excuse for guys like Mullins weakly popping up, or Tony continuing to roll over things, or half the lineup being AAAA players this year.

It's a bad offensive team mostly due to injuries and the rookies being abysmal. That's it. No mystery to it. 

[Greenpastures23]

You really should have to finish in first place to make the playoffs. If the divisions were large from back in the day then I could understand having 2nd place teams make it. It was such an accomplishment back then. We can all agree 3rd place teams making it is a joke. 

[Too Tall]

At this stage, I don't care how we get in - just get in. As been said on here a zillion times, the playoffs are a crap shoot. As bad as it seems right now - WHY NOT?

[Aristotelian]

Assuming we make the playoffs - and Fangraphs assures me it is still 98.8% certain - do we deserve a champagne-and-goggles celebration this year? Feels like instead they should be making a group apology to the fans for making it close. 

[Big Mac]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

They also have a 235 BABiP in that time frame…which is way below average and 16 points less than the 29th ranked team.

They have just had a lot of bad luck in the second half of this season.

Right.  I also get that things look bleak offensively right now but to act like because we've averaged 2 runs per game the past 12 games means that we will continue to do so the remaining 10 games isn't really logical. 

[SilverRocket]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Assuming we make the playoffs - and Fangraphs assures me it is still 98.8% certain - do we deserve a champagne-and-goggles celebration this year? Feels like instead they should be making a group apology to the fans for making it close. 

The team needs to loosen up and if the celebration helps then go for it.

[CTBear]

12 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

The team needs to loosen up and if the celebration helps then go for it.

Yeah I don’t think they necessarily spray champagne and beer everywhere, but you probably do what the Astros did after clinching the division last season. Having some drinks together in the clubhouse and exhaling a bit would ease the tension and help guys laugh about the elephant in the room (that they’ve been horrendous) rather than continuing to be frustrated about it. Every win feels like a miracle right now though so I just hope we get to find our answer. 

Edited 5 hours ago by CTBear