AL playoff picture

[JR Oriole]

I watched the inning where the Tigers scored their 2 runs.  Our friend Meadows had two check swings that easily could have been called strikes, but instead he walked to load the bases.  Carpenter popped out but then Perez had an insane at-bat where he fouled off a ton of pitches, wasn't fooled by anything, and then delivered a bases loaded double which proved to be the difference. Our guys would likely have whiffed on just about every pitch in those at-bats, but their guys have a crazy amount of confidence right now and it has served them very well.  

I do think they have a good chance of winning out and ending with 88 just based on who they play, which means we have to go 3-3 this week or we are out of the 4 spot.  Hopefully their luck will finally run out against us (assuming we can win enough to get in), but if it doesn't, I would love to see them knock out the Yankees.

[Just Regular]

Getting to hear Jason Benetti, Carlos Pena and Kirk Gibson some of the afternoon was a treat.

It was new to me earlier this year Gibson is still broadcasting almost a decade after his Parkinson's diagnosis...good for him.

Benetti dumping the White Sox for the Tigers gives me some Miller to San Francisco vibes...he is excellent.

Baseball as entertainment - it is wonderful that Carlos Pena, literally the player pushed aside so Scott Hatteberg could play offense more efficiently, has become a strong SABR-oriented analyst.

[Safelykept]

36 minutes ago, SteveA said:

They are playing well.   But this is the game we fans always seem to play in our heads.   We see a hot team and assume they will stay hot, and a cold team and assume they will stay cold.   Hot streaks and cold streaks all end.

I think their Hot streak comes to end in the ALWC series

[Spy Fox]

Though they are one of the teams chasing us, is it in our best interest for Minnesota to do well vs Miami? 

I don't think KC/Det will burn Ragans & Skubal on Sunday if the only distinction is seed 5 or 6. But they will if the distinction is in or out. 

[Fiver6565]

41 minutes ago, SteveA said:

They are playing well.   But this is the game we fans always seem to play in our heads.   We see a hot team and assume they will stay hot, and a cold team and assume they will stay cold.   Hot streaks and cold streaks all end.

I don't disagree.  But my feeling on the Tigers has more to do w/ their competition next 5 games, than the idea that their hot streak will continue - the schedule certainly should make it easier to keep the streak going.

Keeping it going into next week though, that's a different story.  But they will probably have Skubal for game 1 against whomever (I don't think they'll need him vs the White Sox for a clincher).

[rm5678]

52 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

BTW that dude Brieske about to get a multi-inning save in a two run game.  The way they've developed and managed this BP is really impressive.  Doesn't seem to be a lot of established roles - just go out there and deal with Hinch tells you to.  And they typically do deal.

Brieske does well as a closer and also as an opener. Yes, the Tigers' pitching staff is quite impressive, especially since most of their pitchers are basically no-names.

[Fiver6565]

30 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Getting to hear Jason Benetti, Carlos Pena and Kirk Gibson some of the afternoon was a treat.

It was new to me earlier this year Gibson is still broadcasting almost a decade after his Parkinson's diagnosis...good for him.

Benetti dumping the White Sox for the Tigers gives me some Miller to San Francisco vibes...he is excellent.

Baseball as entertainment - it is wonderful that Carlos Pena, literally the player pushed aside so Scott Hatteberg could play offense more efficiently, has become a strong SABR-oriented analyst.

Yeah Benetti is good, and those guys (whoever is with him game to game) are definitely having a good time and feeling the good vibes from that team, as they should be.  Its a fun watch if you can set aside that...they aren't the O's, and that you wish the O's would get half as hot.  LOL.

[Fiver6565]

1 minute ago, rm5678 said:

Brieske does well as a closer and also as an opener. Yes, the Tigers' pitching staff is quite impressive, especially since most of their pitchers are basically no-names.

I don't think I could name half their staff right now, and that's after watching all 6 games we played them in the last 10 days!

[Spy Fox]

6 minutes ago, rm5678 said:

Brieske does well as a closer and also as an opener. Yes, the Tigers' pitching staff is quite impressive, especially since most of their pitchers are basically no-names.

Many of them are no-names who weren't even doing well in AAA. 

The inverse of some of our bats who crush AAA and can't hit the side of a barn in the big leagues. 

[bpilktree67]

The Tigers winning out or going 5-1 is not the worst thing for getting in the playoffs .  If the Tigers go  5-1 or 6-0 the rest of the way our magic number is 1 with the Twins.  If the Twins lose tonight the only way we wouldn’t make playoffs is if the Tigers went 3-2 the rest of the way the Royals went 5-1 or better and we go 0-6.  The Twins need to tie the Tigers if not the magic number is in theory 1.  

[Just Regular]

Brian Kenny was positively giddy yesterday they were going "bullpen, attack!" like in his book.

The SP5 and even SP4 roles continue to shrink.    Jay Jaffe had a question in his chat this afternoon highlighting that Ohtani/Yamamoto have nearly never pitched on 5 days rest, and I would guess Roki Sasaki hasn't either.    

The contrast Sunday between that and leaving Suarez up there after the Urias-Westburg rally was rough.

If the DET-BAL matchup occurs, one thing that might help is the idea the longer teams play each other, the more bats get to know the arm barn people.   Corey Seager getting Paul Sewald all figured out was kind of the conspicuous example during the 2023 World Series.

[Just Regular]

Connor Norby batting 2nd and Kyle Stowers batting 6th against the Twins tonight.

Sitting here in NoVa, rain is hanging in there for Cole Ragans game with the Nationals.

[SteveA]

7 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

The Tigers winning out or going 5-1 is not the worst thing for getting in the playoffs .  If the Tigers go  5-1 or 6-0 the rest of the way our magic number is 1 with the Twins.  If the Twins lose tonight the only way we wouldn’t make playoffs is if the Tigers went 3-2 the rest of the way the Royals went 5-1 or better and we go 0-6.  The Twins need to tie the Tigers if not the magic number is in theory 1.  

Just to be technical, there is ONE other way way miss the playoffs even if that happens.   If we lost out, Det and KC both  finish ahead of us, and we tie the Twins, AND Seattle wins out -- we are in a 3 way tie for the last wild card spot with Seattle and the Twins.  We went 4-2 vs Seattle, Minnesota went 5-2 vs Seattle, and we would have gone 3-3 vs Seattle.   So Minnesota would get the last wild card spot on the basis of a 8-5 record among the tied teams, vs our 7-5 record, and Seattle's 4-9 record.   (That would only happen if Seattle didn't win the division by winning out, which means Houston would win at least 2 of 3 from Cleveland over the weekend).

[SteveA]

15 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Just to be technical, there is ONE other way way miss the playoffs even if that happens.   If we lost out, Det and KC both  finish ahead of us, and we tie the Twins, AND Seattle wins out -- we are in a 3 way tie for the last wild card spot with Seattle and the Twins.  We went 4-2 vs Seattle, Minnesota went 5-2 vs Seattle, and we would have gone 3-3 vs Seattle.   So Minnesota would get the last wild card spot on the basis of a 8-5 record among the tied teams, vs our 7-5 record, and Seattle's 4-9 record.   (That would only happen if Seattle didn't win the division by winning out, which means Houston would win at least 2 of 3 from Cleveland over the weekend).

And there's one other scenario where we miss out on a 3 way tiebreak:  we lose out and finish 86-76.   Detroit and KC win at least 87 each.  Minnesota goes 2-1 vs Miami and sweeps us and finishes tied with us at 86.  Seattle wins out and finishes 86-76.   Houston wins 1 of 3 from Cleveland and finishes 86-76.   Then Seattle gets the AL West on the tiebreak with Houston.   We are in a 3 way tie with Minnesota and Houston for the last wild card spot, which goes to Minnesota (4-2 vs Hou, 3-3 vs Balt = 7-5) over Houston (5-2 vs Balt, 2-4 vs Minn = 7-6) and us (2-5 vs Hou, 3-3 vs Minn = 5-8).