Grade the Eflin Trade

[emmett16]

Eflin @ 18MM tells me the FO really likes him. 

[survivedc]

35 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I hear you, but what does the #1 prospect ranking really mean? We all follow baseball pretty closely.

It’s a slam dunk for me to same that James Wood is the better prospect than Jackson Holliday. 

I would even rate our big 3 as Basallo up top with Holliday - Mayo equal in value. But that’s my opinions. 

Point being… that #1 ranking stuff doesn’t really matter. Holliday is one of 10-15 really elite prospects in the game. A ranking takes into account draft status, int’l signing bonus, being ranked previously, hype, stats vs state, a lot of subjective stuff. 

So would we trade one of the 10-15 elite prospects in the game for Skubal, who is favored to win the AL CYA currently?  I think Elias waits to see how this team plays the next few games. Only we can seemingly afford to acquire Skubal.

It's a slam dunk? Really? How Sway?

[Three Run Homer]

4 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I wonder how people would feel if Eflin’s ERA this season started with a 3 - like every single more predictive measure (3.37 xERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 3.92 SIERA) - instead of being a ghastly 4.09. 

For those hoping for somebody better - who exactly do you think is better who is potentially available other than Skubal and Crochet?

Fedde has been better this year, but last year he was in Korea and Eflin had a 4.7 fWAR season with a 3.50 ERA. I’d still take Eflin over him going forward, even if it’s close. More importantly, he’s also owed only $7.5M next year to Eflin’s $18M, so the trade price will be MUCH higher and every single team looking for pitching can afford him next year and is competing for him. Taking Eflin’s salary lowered the competition and the prospect capital and is EXACTLY the type of deal the Orioles should be doing with their payroll flexibility.

Snell was horrible this year, then hurt, and now maybe himself again. Even if you think he’s good going forward now, he’s a rental with the anchor of a potential $31M salary next year if he gets injured or starts struggling again. 

Bassitt is good, but by all predictive measures other than ERA still worse than Eflin this year, but he’s 35 and owed even more next year ($21M). And the reports are he’s not even available. 

Taillon is fine, but not better than Eflin - everything in his profile is pointing to a 4+ ERA much more than Eflin. Rangers are not trading Eovaldi or Scherzer now. Luzardo maybe, but he’s hurt and MIA may not be trading him either. 

Am I missing anybody? I’d love to add any of these guys too and don’t think the Orioles should stop here. But Eflin was arguably the best available, and definitely the best fit in terms of the balance of prospect capital vs. taking on salary. To boot they also added added to a rotation next year that right now only has Grayson and Kremer. 

I can understand wanting a more impressive high K, ace SP type in theory, but with all of this context I don’t know how you could think anything other than loving this deal. 

This is a good analysis.  I did notice from BB-Ref that Eflin consistently has had better FIP than ERA each of the last 5 years, so it's not clear to me that we should expect Eflin to pitch better than his current ERA going forward.    I agree that Eflin is better than most of the options out there and we didn't give up any of our best prospects to get him, which makes this a good trade.  But I'd be happier with it if we got Fedde or Snell before the deadline, who I think are better bets to pitch at a playoff level the rest of this season.  

[e16bball]

45 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Point being… that #1 ranking stuff doesn’t really matter. Holliday is one of 10-15 really elite prospects in the game. A ranking takes into account draft status, int’l signing bonus, being ranked previously, hype, stats vs state, a lot of subjective stuff. 

I don’t think I can get on board with this logic. Holliday is number one, but he’s really just one of the top 10-15? Is it just random coincidence that he’s consistently rated ahead of all the rest of his fellow top 10-15?

I’m absolutely fine with the notion that there’s no magic associated with the #1 spot specifically. If you want to say there’s no significant difference between Holliday and James Wood just because Jackson is (or has been) #1 over him, I’m fine with that. 

But you’re taking that concept and running a mile with it, by extending that interchangeability from the top couple guys to the top 10-15. There is a significant difference in value/projection between Holliday and guys like Max Clark, Colson Montgomery, Brooks Lee, Carson Williams, and (yes) our two guys in the 15 range. They rank them — instead of just creating large general tiers — for a reason. 

It doesn’t mean he’ll be better than all those guys, just because he was ranked higher based on all the factors you listed out. But it does make him a more valuable bet than them, so you don’t sell him for the same price. At the moment, among the guys still in the minors, I don’t think anyone is on the same tier as Holliday — I think the only young players with comparable value to him are already in the big leagues. There certainly are not 10-15 comps currently in the minor leagues.

 

NOTE: Now that I think about it…are you including those guys as the “really elite prospects”? Very young MLB rookie types like Skenes, Langford, Chourio, Merrill, Wood, Colt Keith, etc.? In that case, I would retract my argument, because there probably are 10-15 very young (and as-yet-unproven) players in the world with trade value comparable to Jackson — I just don’t think any of them are still in the minors or still eligible for “prospect” status. 

[Orioles0615]

Is Eflin the first player Elias has acquired with a guaranteed contract the next year?

[Just Regular]

10 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Is Eflin the first player Elias has acquired with a guaranteed contract the next year?

James "buy-side" McCann I believe got there first.

Multi-year pitcher commitment though...check!

[e16bball]

10 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I did notice from BB-Ref that Eflin consistently has had better FIP than ERA each of the last 5 years, so it's not clear to me that we should expect Eflin to pitch better than his current ERA going forward.

I also noted this, and really it’s true of all of his advanced metrics, to include xFIP, xERA, and SIERA as well. 

If I was a gambling man, I’d wager that the relatively low K rate may make him more prone to what I would loosely refer to as bad sequencing luck — as in teams being able to string together a few hits at a time or push across those runs with a man on 3rd, etc. The strikeout (much like the sack in football) disrupts rallies and extinguishes threats, so if you aren’t the type of pitcher to be able to reach back for a K when you need one, that makes things a bit tougher. 

One thing that stands out in his profile is a pretty low strand rate (around 70%). The majority of the pitchers who have consistently struggled to strand runners in recent years appear to have similarly pedestrian K rates, so it seems like that could be a factor. And every single SP (14 in total) with a strand rate equal to or worse than Eflin’s since 2022 has also underperformed their metrics in that span. 

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Eflin @ 18MM tells me the FO really likes him. 

What’s the saying, “there are no bad 1yr contracts.”  Unclear where Elias/Rubs will establish budget for next season, but there is enough optionality to easily cover the cost (Kimbrel, Santander, Hays+Mullins) before even considering Burnes.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Say O! said:

What’s the saying, “there are no bad 1yr contracts.”  Unclear where Elias/Rubs will establish budget for next season, but there is enough optionality to easily cover the cost (Kimbrel, Santander, Hays+Mullins) before even considering Burnes.

Tillman's 2018 deal.

Yea it was only 3M but a blind man could have seen that one coming.

Edited July 27 by Can_of_corn