O's acquire LHP Trevor Rogers from Marlins

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Agreed.  Rogers with his increased Sinker usage should benefit from our Infield defense.  Also, the big LF and Wall.  Who knows, if we tinker with his pitch usage with our pitching lab.  

Do we know if there’s any hope with his velocity and stuff? Obviously he showed out in 2021, strikeouts and all. Only time may tell, but not sure if the lat injury he had = this is who he is now v. 2021? 

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Eflin was certainly about 24 and while he's not Skubel, he's a solid #2 or #3 depending on how he's pitching. Obviously we did not get that impact starter (Unless Eflin becomes super motivated on a playoff bound team and pulls a 1987 Doyle Alexander) or reliever unless Domínguez or Soto suddenly get more consistent with a fresh start on a playoff bound team.

But, I believe the team is better than it was before the deadline.

Rogers is better than Suarez, Povich or McDermott as the 5th starter and it allows Suarez to move to relief which is like adding another solid bullpen arm.

Yep, agree.

And also, did anyone get an impact starter? You could argue the Dodgers did with Flaherty, but he's had two cortisone shots in his lower back recently. And I'm not super interested in making the case for Fedde over Eflin. Pretty similar, and I'll take Eflin's experience. Skubal, Crochet, Snell, Luzardo, and Woo weren't traded. I'm sure I'm missing someone, but... 

Edited July 31 by interloper

[Tony-OH]

One thing to remember about statcast info, some pitchers just outperform them.

Here's john Means statcast info for his 4 brief starts this year where he pitched to a 2.60 ERA.

Here are Trevor Rogers this year:

I'm not saying he's John Means after surgery, but he does have a similar repertoire with his change being his best pitch, low velocity fastball that requires command, and a below average slider. The thing is, Rogers commands his below average moving slider well enough that it doesn't get creamed. 

At the end of the day, he's better than Cole Irvin:

And Suarez now can go to the pen and maybe end up the closer or impact 8th guy.

 

[glenn__davis]

Yeah - I like the Statcast data as well but sometimes it's relied on too heavily.

If it was as easy as looking at Statcast and seeing who has more red and who has more blue, any of us could be a GM.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Yeah - I like the Statcast data as well but sometimes it's relied on too heavily.

If it was as easy as looking at Statcast and seeing who has more red and who has more blue, any of us could be a GM.

Statcast is a tool to be used, but not the be all end all to evaluations. I've seen pitches with way above average movement and velocity have bad pitch values because of command. I've seen below average pitch movement pitches play up because of great command of them. 

Sometimes I think many of us, including me, get too caught up on spin rates, movement, extension, etc but don't put enough emphasis on command, which is hard to define. Swing/take is a nice tool to use to get an idea of command.

 

When Rogers is on the shadow of the zone, he's most effective, which is probably true for most pitchers, but the key to most of the good pitchers is getting guys to swing at chase pitches. That tells you your stuff fools hitters. Rogers throws 3% more chase pitches than MLB avg, but gets 7% less swings which is why he's -18 runs in that area. It seems if he get more of those pitches to land in the shadow zone. he would have more success.


 

[CaptainRedbeard]

17 hours ago, Since1984 said:

I’m surprised at the volume of descent so far on this thread. Is it because we didn’t add a #1 ceiling?

Rogers has a higher ceiling and better floor than Kremer and we have a LHP SP for 2 years. Injuries will define this trades value, but it is worth the risk to have two more years of #3 ceiling 

Rogers definitely has a higher ceiling than Kremer but I think his floor is lower. Even if both of their floors are around 4.50 ERA guys, Kremer has been very durable and Rogers has been the opposite. 

I’m not even confident Rogers is healthy right now or will get through the rest of this season healthy. His velocity has been down to 91 mph for 3 consecutive starts. He’s at 105 IP after barely pitching last year, only 107 IP in 2022, and his career high 133 IP in 2021. 

If Rogers can just get through the rest of this year healthy, give the Orioles an off-season and Spring Training for some pitching lab time to tinker with him, I think there’s upside. But for the rest of this season I think this trade was just about plugging someone into the rotation who can move Suarez to the pen and give us a better chance to win games right now than Povich or McDermott. 

[wildcard]

Stowers batting 3rd for the Marlins today.

[Since1984]

6 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Rogers definitely has a higher ceiling than Kremer but I think his floor is lower. Even if both of their floors are around 4.50 ERA guys, Kremer has been very durable and Rogers has been the opposite. 

I’m not even confident Rogers is healthy right now or will get through the rest of this season healthy. His velocity has been down to 91 mph for 3 consecutive starts. He’s at 105 IP after barely pitching last year, only 107 IP in 2022, and his career high 133 IP in 2021. 

If Rogers can just get through the rest of this year healthy, give the Orioles an off-season and Spring Training for some pitching lab time to tinker with him, I think there’s upside. But for the rest of this season I think this trade was just about plugging someone into the rotation who can move Suarez to the pen and give us a better chance to win games right now than Povich or McDermott. 

This is similar to what Flaherty was going through last year with the O’s. Hope we can balance his load successfully the rest of this year.

[baltimoriole]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Stowers batting 3rd for the Marlins today.

With a golden sombrero. Oy vey. I’d love for him to just feast.

[LA2]

On 7/31/2024 at 3:14 AM, gamiliel said:

Who said we were getting Skubal for those two? No one said that

That was the point of the joke.

[KojiSplit]

9 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Rogers definitely has a higher ceiling than Kremer but I think his floor is lower. Even if both of their floors are around 4.50 ERA guys, Kremer has been very durable and Rogers has been the opposite. 

I’m not even confident Rogers is healthy right now or will get through the rest of this season healthy. His velocity has been down to 91 mph for 3 consecutive starts. He’s at 105 IP after barely pitching last year, only 107 IP in 2022, and his career high 133 IP in 2021. 

If Rogers can just get through the rest of this year healthy, give the Orioles an off-season and Spring Training for some pitching lab time to tinker with him, I think there’s upside. But for the rest of this season I think this trade was just about plugging someone into the rotation who can move Suarez to the pen and give us a better chance to win games right now than Povich or McDermott. 

Well written and thanks for posting the mph on his non blazing fastball as I also looked at his last few gamecast logs and wasn’t impressed with the low velocity.

I understand the price of pitching skyrocketed after the Kikuchi trade (plus it was the last day to make a deal so high cost for everyone) but I would have liked to see the O’s acquire someone a bit more impactful than someone who hasn’t been the same pitcher since 2021.

I’ll add this note though; there seems to have been a bidding war for Rogers and I read this morning the Mets were in on him heavy so maybe teams besides the O’s really believe they can make some mechanical tweaks and get him closer to 2021 or at least glimpses of it.

With all that being said the drop in velocity is definitely a concern but whenever he makes his O’s debut I’ll be cheering on the squad and hope he silences me and everyone else even if it’s just for one start.

[Malike]

There are a ton of examples of guys who throw 91/92 that are extremely successful. Nola, Suarez, Steele and on and on. You don't have to throw hard to get guys out and be an effective pitcher.

Having not seen much if anything of Rogers, I'm going to reserve judgment until he throws some games for us. I'm happier that they've added velocity and swing and miss to the pen which we needed.

[KojiSplit]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

There are a ton of examples of guys who throw 91/92 that are extremely successful. Nola, Suarez, Steele and on and on. You don't have to throw hard to get guys out and be an effective pitcher.

Having not seen much if anything of Rogers, I'm going to reserve judgment until he throws some games for us. I'm happier that they've added velocity and swing and miss to the pen which we needed.

Fully agree; Kyle Hendricks immediately comes to mind as well as someone who doesn’t throw heat and until recently has had a good career.

With that being said Rogers was most effective when he was throwing 94-95. Anyway, hope the staff can work on some things and I’ll hope for the best.

[interloper]

In his scrum with reporters, Elias mentioned that Rogers has had a couple of lat injuries, one on each side. This was said after a reporter asked about his up and down performance of late. 

 

 

[Billy F-Face3]

Who's going to keep giving me crap now for saying this was a bad trade? The guy is a dime a dozen pitcher and couldn't even make it 5 innings without giving up 5 runs in his 1st start. Say short sample size all you want but his career ERA shows he's at best, average. He's definitely not any better than Dean Kremer or Albert Suarez. He's the equivalent of a pitcher like Cole Irvin but at least Irvin could give you some innings.