Vance Honeycutt

[OriolesMagic83]

I just looked up Gallo's career stats.  38% career K rate.  .195/.321/.457 career slash line.  I guess if you draw some walks and play good defense, you can actually have a career w/ a 35+% K rate. 

[Chromehill]

17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think some of this is also an understanding that teams don’t value the same things they did 15+ years ago..had to be some adjusting made to the new way of things.

Hitting 220 isn’t considered a big problem anymore..even if it should be.

When the league average is .244, having a guy hit .220 who draws walks, has some power, runs well and plays good defense....you can probably live with that player in your lineup.  Sad, but true in today's baseball.

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, OsFanInOhio said:

I thought something similar. Except either comparing to a cf version of Jorge Mateo with 30hr power, or somewhere in the realm of Giancarlo Stanton if he could play defense and steal bases. He’s had a ops+ of 112, 86 and 121 the last 3 years despite striking out 30% of the time (quite a bit more than Santander). If Vance puts up 100-110 ops+ then plays elite cf defense and can steal 20+ bases, a k rate that high can still play. At least in theory. 

Of course Giancarlo Stanton was slashing .262/.356/.537/.893 with a 140 OPS+ at the MAJOR LEAUGE level at the same age as Honeycutt, so we probably have to cool the jets on that comparison.

Right now they have to let Honeycutt go play. They'll give him things to work on in the offseason and we'll see if he can come back next year with a good offseason and spring training under his belt and perform well in Aberdeen. If he can be playing in AA for half the season next year and hold his own he'll be on track.

 

[Tony-OH]

On 9/3/2024 at 10:15 AM, Warehouse said:

Below is my rough mental model (completely gut feel) for Honeycutt outcomes.  These estimates represents peak performance so variability in consistency and health would dilute aggregate WAR over control years to varying degrees.

Even when you consider effects from health/consistency, this paints a rosy picture of outcomes vs. the stats shared by Skanar.  So I might be overly optimistic here. On the other hand, college outfielders probably have better outcomes than other profiles, teams have likely improved evaluation since the early 90s, 22 is better than 21-30, and Elias may be a better evaluator than average.

 

Percentile	WAR/525 PAs	Comps
95th	5+	Brent Rooker bat, Kevin Kiermaier glove, Bobby Witt baserunning
90th	3.5-4.5	Luis Robert Jr or Byron Buxton without the injuries
75th	2.5-3.5	Jose Siri
60th	~2	Drew Stubbs
50th	1-2	Some version of Michael A. Taylor, Brett Phillips, or Keon Broxton with more power but also more Ks
40th	0-1	Sam Hilliard, Bradley Zimmer
30th	<0	Christian Pache, Daz Cameron, Arismendy Alcantera, Drew Robinson
≤ 20th	Never make majors	Jeren Kendall

Drew Stubbs as a hitter is a great comp for Honeycutt, nice job. He'll probably be a much better CF defender though, not that Stubbs was terrible.

[OsFanInOhio]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Of course Giancarlo Stanton was slashing .262/.356/.537/.893 with a 140 OPS+ at the MAJOR LEAUGE level at the same age as Honeycutt, so we probably have to cool the jets on that comparison.

Right now they have to let Honeycutt go play. They'll give him things to work on in the offseason and we'll see if he can come back next year with a good offseason and spring training under his belt and perform well in Aberdeen. If he can be playing in AA for half the season next year and hold his own he'll be on track.

 

I’m in no way saying Vance will be Stanton. More showing an example of how over a 3 or 4 year stretch (the last few years specifically) a player can be an above average offensive player even striking out at a 30% clip. If he can even be an average mlb hitter (much like folks have said about Mateo for years) then Vance will be a good big leaguer. 

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If the O's get Joey Gallo out of Honeycutt we should be happy?

I’d absolutely say yes.  

[DocJJ]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d absolutely say yes.  

I'd vote no on this...

 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I'd vote no on this...

 

I'll sign up for some 2-4 win seasons while under team control.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I'd vote no on this...

 

Your expectations are wildly off on what you think a draft pick should become.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I'd vote no on this...

 

Gallo had some pretty good years.  Obviously he is/was a flawed player.  Still, he had seasons of 4.2, 3.1, 2.9 and 2.4 rWAR, was an all star twice, has won two Gold Gloves.  

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your expectations are wildly off on what you think a draft pick should become.

How ironic.

”Again, barring injury, I think if Bradfield only finishes the season in AA, that should be considered a disappointment.”

[doccat]

0-3 with 3K’s tonight.  

[sportsfan8703]

12 hours ago, RZNJ said:

How ironic.

”Again, barring injury, I think if Bradfield only finishes the season in AA, that should be considered a disappointment.”

We all need a little more slack on the minors board than the main board. 

Remember when a lot of us wanted Lawlar/Mayer over Cowser?  Or Austin Martin over Kjerstad?  Or Druw Jones over Holliday?

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We all need a little more slack on the minors board than the main board. 

Remember when a lot of us wanted Lawlar/Mayer over Cowser?  Or Austin Martin over Kjerstad?  Or Druw Jones over Holliday?

Sure do.    0-4 with 3 strikeouts last night.   Honeycutt is headed for the worst debut of any Elias 1st round pick ever.   He could become an all-star and turn out to be a great pick.   But ………….

 

Let me add in a controversial possibility.   People talk about his floor being a 4th outfielder, platoon CF.    This guy might be Zach Watson II and top out at AA.  

Edited September 5 by RZNJ

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Sure do.    0-4 with 3 strikeouts last night.   Honeycutt is headed for the worst debut of any Elias 1st round pick ever.   He could become an all-star and turn out to be a great pick.   But ………….

 

Let me add in a controversial possibility.   People talk about his floor being a 4th outfielder, platoon CF.    This guy might be Zach Watson II and top out at AA.  

We writing guys off in their draft year now?