The injuries "excuse."

[SteveA]

Everything is a factor.   The injuries are a factor, of course,   a huge one.

We have players with a track record underperforming, both on offense, defense, and on the mound.

Elias didn't do a good job putting together a bullpen before the season or at the deadline.

Hyde makes too many pitching changes and is often shorthanded in the bullpen.

It's fair to question coaching as well, given some bad defense we have seen.    We have two hitting coaches and an offensive strategy coach and it's hard to judge what value they are adding.

Trying to look at the big picture:   We are still 19 games over .500 despite the injuries.   Mostly that is a credit to the fantastic start that the team had, obviously we haven't played at that level in a long time.   But we have to give Hyde/Elias/players credit for what they did for the first 2.5 months of the season EVERY bit as much as we blame them for what they are doing now.

There are a couple problems with these "what is to blame the most" discussions:

1. If you emphasize one thing as the problems (injury, Hyde, bullpen) people will come out of the woodwork to point out why the OTHER factors are important too, or more important.   When of course the truth is that ALL the things are factors.
2. People with agendas will naturally gravitate to supporting the factor that supports their preconceived bias.   You don't like Hyde and want him fired, of course you will point to his management of the bullpen.   You love Hyde, of course you will point to the injuries, or point to Elias not giving Hyde enough to work with.   You think Elias is great, you will point to players underperforming; you don't like Elias, you will point to players he acquired that didn't work out.
3. Finally, almost all these discussions devolve into silly arguments.   Person 1:  we're losing because of the hitting.   Person 2 shows hitting stats being decent and says we are losing becuase of the pitching.   And on and on.   What are they actually arguing about?   We are losing because the sum total of everything put together -- Elias' team construction, Hyde's management, injuries, performance of hitters, performance of pitchers, performance on defense, umpire calls, lucky/unlucky bounces, opposing teams quality of play against us -- is adding up to a team that is about 5 games under .500 for the past two months.   Trying to isolate one factor is just a futile effort.   Better to try to figure out what we can improve moving forward.

 

[Orioles0615]

Injuries mixed with a coaching problem. 

[LookitsPuck]

I mean, clearly it’s hurting the team because they have a full rotation and arguably their two best bullpen arms on the IL. Elias went for quantity instead of quality at the deadline. So he is to blame for both only picking up Kimbrel before the season started while putting faith in Tate, Akin, Baumann as mainstays as well as is to blame for thinking Means, Wells (both often injured) would be mainstays in the rotation and/or pen after Bradish went down.

Soto isn’t good. Rogers is atrocious. Seranthony is serviceable. But nobody in that bullpen is excellent. They’re all average arms this year. It’s a major blind spot and wasn’t properly addressed in the offseason nor the trade deadline.

Eflin was awesome. Eloy and Slater were decent role pickups. But boy howdy that trade deadline is really looking mediocre.

That said, there’s no excuse that this team can’t hit a lick consistently especially against mediocre pitchers. The occasional offensive outburst is skewing the numbers. And no, the offense being terrible isn’t because of injuries. They’ve only lost Westburg and Mateo and it’s only been a few weeks.

Gunnar was good for a week, but has been really mediocre lately. Santander only hits dingers but has fallen off everywhere else. Mounty has no power. O’Hearn is a platoon player who isn’t hitting right now and shouldn’t be in the field. Holliday is a rookie and is understandably inconsistent, and so is Cowser. Adley has fallen off a cliff and might be playing hurt. And what recent performance you’re getting out of backups like Mullins and Urias isn’t enough. The top of the lineup isn’t doing anything.

And Burnes has been god awful this month. 

So, yeah. A lot of this is on Elias, a lot is on injuries, and a lot of is on underperforming players. It’s all bad. There’s not a single bright spot on this team right now. Mediocre might be a nice way to put this club. 

[HowAboutThat]

38 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Everything is a factor.   The injuries are a factor, of course,   a huge one.

We have players with a track record underperforming, both on offense, defense, and on the mound.

Elias didn't do a good job putting together a bullpen before the season or at the deadline.

Hyde makes too many pitching changes and is often shorthanded in the bullpen.

It's fair to question coaching as well, given some bad defense we have seen.    We have two hitting coaches and an offensive strategy coach and it's hard to judge what value they are adding.

Trying to look at the big picture:   We are still 19 games over .500 despite the injuries.   Mostly that is a credit to the fantastic start that the team had, obviously we haven't played at that level in a long time.   But we have to give Hyde/Elias/players credit for what they did for the first 2.5 months of the season EVERY bit as much as we blame them for what they are doing now.

There are a couple problems with these "what is to blame the most" discussions:

1. If you emphasize one thing as the problems (injury, Hyde, bullpen) people will come out of the woodwork to point out why the OTHER factors are important too, or more important.   When of course the truth is that ALL the things are factors.
2. People with agendas will naturally gravitate to supporting the factor that supports their preconceived bias.   You don't like Hyde and want him fired, of course you will point to his management of the bullpen.   You love Hyde, of course you will point to the injuries, or point to Elias not giving Hyde enough to work with.   You think Elias is great, you will point to players underperforming; you don't like Elias, you will point to players he acquired that didn't work out.
3. Finally, almost all these discussions devolve into silly arguments.   Person 1:  we're losing because of the hitting.   Person 2 shows hitting stats being decent and says we are losing becuase of the pitching.   And on and on.   What are they actually arguing about?   We are losing because the sum total of everything put together -- Elias' team construction, Hyde's management, injuries, performance of hitters, performance of pitchers, performance on defense, umpire calls, lucky/unlucky bounces, opposing teams quality of play against us -- is adding up to a team that is about 5 games under .500 for the past two months.   Trying to isolate one factor is just a futile effort.   Better to try to figure out what we can improve moving forward.

 

Excellent post, but the question is about the MAIN problem, and the MAIN problem is sloppy play in all aspects of the game. Everything mentioned plays a part, big or small, in that, but what’s the main problem?

But the folks who say this is just a rough patch, or a slump are mistaken.

This is currently a bad team, and only 30+ games to find a solution.

Edited August 23 by HowAboutThat

[SilverRocket]

There was never really a time when I felt like the depth was lacking. The injuries are well beyond what has happened in previous years, and the depth players are underperforming compared to the successful depth pieces of past years. I do think this is a different team once Eflin, GRod, and Westburg are back, though the loss of Mateo, Bradish, Means, and Wells will continue to hurt. In an ideal world, Suarez and Wells would be pitching leverage situations out of the pen.

What does worry me is the defensive development in the minors. New callups are looking sloppy to a degree they didn't in past eras. I don't know if they've added defensive analytics the way they have with pitching and hitting... but either way it has not been working that well. The pitching hasn't been great but the defense also hasn't been helping.

[Alasdaire]

Fans always overestimate how much their team is cursed when the reality is that injuries are ubiquitous.

But precisely because injuries are omnipresent, it's incumbent on a front office to construct their roster to account for their inevitability. To borrow from football, the Ravens have redundancies everywhere because they know that injuries are a matter of when and not if.

I also think that if your roster is a few injuries away from being knocked out of contention entirely, you were always living on the knife's edge anyway. Part of the reason why I never supported the idea of going "all in" on this season or last is because we would have needed everything to go right to win it all--including avoiding injuries entirely, which is not a bet worth making.

[LookitsPuck]

I do want to address the injury part, because while it doesn't really explain why the offense has been mediocre, it certainly explains the rotation and to an extent the bullpen.

Look at the injuries in 2023 vs. 2024 from key players:

• 2023
  • John Means (carry over from 2022)
  • Dillon Tate (flexor straight in November 2022)
  • Felix Bautista went down on 8/26
  • Mychal Givens (prior to the season knee inflammation)
  • Bradish hurt his foot, but was back pretty quickly
  • Mullins groin strain, brought in Aaron Hicks, Mullins came back later (and got hurt again, too)
  • Keegan Akin back issues
  • Perez, McCann, Urias, Mountcastle, Voth, Coulombe missed some time here/there, but really nothing significant

The 2023 was tremendously lucky in the sense that the only regular they lost that was a huge part of the team was Bautista since he was out for September and the playoffs. Mullins definitely missed some time, but honestly they were incredibly healthy. Now let's compare it to 2024.

• 2024
  • John Means - season ending
  • Tyler Wells - season ending
  • Kyle Bradish - season ending
  • Jorge Mateo - season ending
  • Zach Eflin - TBD
  • Grayson Rodriguez - TBD
  • Jordan Westburg - could be season ending
  • Danny Coulombe - out months
  • Jacob Webb
  • Heston Kjerstad - concussion but was hitting very well until then, now in the minors

That is an entire rotation and 2 key bullpen arms (potentially a 3rd key bullpen arm if Wells was relegated to it if Means/Bradish were healthy).

They've been decently lucky with the offense not being too injured, tbh. So there's really no excuse for how lackluster they're been. But it does explain some of the defensive woes. Doesn't explain how bad catching has been, though.

[Sports Guy]

The injuries are a contributing factor and I’m not even including Bradish, Means or Wells. I’m specifically talking about Westburg, DC, GRod and now Eflin, although it’s only one missed start so far for Eflin, so that doesn’t mean much yet.

 

[btdart20]

I think it's mostly SP injuries. 

Going into the season with Burnes and Grayson is 2 legit TOR SPs.  Bradish and (to a much lesser extent) Means as the upside hopefuls.  Kremer, Wells, Irvin, and Suarez is the rotation depth.   Plus Povich and McD developing as more depth.  That's 10 deep opening the season.  We traded for the best non-Flaherty SP who moved at the deadline in Eflin.  And added more depth in Rogers.  That's 12 SPs.  5 of which form a solid playoff IL rotation.  I'd be willing to guess our best stretch was when Burnes, Bradish, and Grayson were all healthy giving the leverage arms in the BP some rest.  I struggle with putting any blame on Elias regarding the rotation (unless trading a a top 10ish prospect is on the trade for a tier above Eflin).

Pitching lab chasing spin and velo does impact health.  It also increases the odds of outs.  I wouldn’t be shocked if we see another Lyles/Gibson type for 2025.

BP plays a role.  Another arm in the offseason may have helped.  That's the angle I would put on Elias.  I'm even OK with targeting Kimbrel and Dominguez.

I like how the positional roster has been built and used in general. I am curious the monthly OPS for each batting spot though.

It's tough to break ahead of the peloton. 

[LookitsPuck]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I think it's mostly SP injuries. 

Going into the season with Burnes and Grayson is 2 legit TOR SPs.  Bradish and (to a much lesser extent) Means as the upside hopefuls.  Kremer, Wells, Irvin, and Suarez is the rotation depth.   Plus Povich and McD developing as more depth.  That's 10 deep opening the season.  We traded for the best non-Flaherty SP who moved at the deadline in Eflin.  And added more depth in Rogers.  That's 12 SPs.  5 of which form a solid playoff IL rotation.  I'd be willing to guess our best stretch was when Burnes, Bradish, and Grayson were all healthy giving the leverage arms in the BP some rest.  I struggle with putting any blame on Elias regarding the rotation (unless trading a a top 10ish prospect is on the trade for a tier above Eflin).

Pitching lab chasing spin and velo does impact health.  It also increases the odds of outs.  I wouldn’t be shocked if we see another Lyles/Gibson type for 2025.

BP plays a role.  Another arm in the offseason may have helped.  That's the angle I would put on Elias.  I'm even OK with targeting Kimbrel and Dominguez.

I like how the positional roster has been built and used in general. I am curious the monthly OPS for each batting spot though.

It's tough to break ahead of the peloton. 

Dominguez has a team option for $8m next year. I could see Elias picking that up. Kimbrel, not so much. Money much better spent elsewhere. 

[HowAboutThat]

Thought from TradeRumors chat:

 

 

[Three Run Homer]

I voted for "the middle".  Injuries have hurt the team, no doubt.  Bautista, Bradish, Coulombe, GrayRod and Westburg would all be among the best players on the team.  Having any of them around would have led to more wins.  

But the team should have built a better bullpen over the offseason.  We knew that Bautista would be gone.  We knew that the bullpen was top-heavy last year, without much beyond Bautista, Cano and Coulombe.   We should have known that Kimbrel was a risky bet.  Instead of signing upgrades, we kept rolling with guys like Baker, Akin, Baumann, Webb and Perez, all of whom were mediocre at best last season.  

You could also argue that Bradish and Means' availability were suspect over the offseason and that the organization should have added more quality starting pitching depth--someone like Mike Lorenzen.   

The real debate is not whether the Orioles needed to do more in the offseason.  The debate is whether the weak offseason is Elias' fault or John Angelos' fault.  We'd better hope it was the latter.  

[LookitsPuck]

W-L record for the bullpen 2024: 23-18 (56%)

Last year? 44-21 (nearly 68%)

That's a 12% difference in win rate from the relievers. 

To me that's the biggest difference here. It's a bunch of average arms and nobody that is excellent (that is currently healthy, that is). 

I mean, just look at it like this: last year 2/3 of the time the bullpen would lock it up. This year? It's almost 50/50. That's pretty dramatic. 

Even 2022 had a near 60% winning percentage for the relievers. 

Edited August 23 by LookitsPuck

[Feinbird]

I bought myself a new Os hat in late June. Things haven’t been the same since. 

It could also be the injuries…

[Roy Firestone]

6 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

When this much of your team is injured, it's no longer the real team. That we're still hanging around and near the best record in the league says a lot about the quality of the depth Elias has built up and acquired. 

I'm part of the "gotta tread water for another 4 weeks" club. We'll see how we look when we get our guys back. 

Im not sure that EVEN if we get the injured players back that they will automatically transform themselves back to effective performers. And more than that, I think at the end of four weeks we may be out of contention even for a wild card berth.I'd love to say"we'll be fine", but I don't think we will be.We might need some sort of miracle run, but with Burnes now pitching poorly, and Elfin out, I don't see that happening.