Most disappointing prospects of 2024?

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In the case of both Honeycutt and Holliday, I wouldn't pick them because my personal expectations weren't as high as other people's.   I'm certainly disappointed in both but I don't think my long-run expectation has been affected a lot by this year's performance.   In Beavers' case, I had some hopes he'd deserve a top 5 prospect rating once all the Norfolk prospects graduated.   I probably bought into last year's Bowie numbers a little too much.

If you take Beavers and Tavera’s expectations and then look at the results, it’s a no contest win for Braylin Tavera.     

[Warehouse]

Biggest disappointments:

Jackson Holliday

Dylan Beavers

Vance Honeycutt 

Braylin Tavera

Luis Almeyda

Joshua Liranzo (somewhat SSS)

Luis De Leon

Carter Baumler

Trace Bright

Francisco Morao

 

 

Injury disappointments:

Keifer Lord

Teddy Sharkey

Jean Pinto

Max Wagner

Reese Trimble (not in terms of wiping out year but in terms of here we go again)

Noah Denoyer

Edited September 11 by Warehouse

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If you take Beavers and Tavera’s expectations and then look at the results, it’s a no contest win for Braylin Tavera.     

I just have vastly higher error bars for a 19-year old prospect in low A than I do for a guy returning to AA after a successful first couple of months there.   

Anyway, everyone is entitled to their own opinion on a question like this.   

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Biggest disappointments:

Jackson Holliday

Dylan Beavers

Vance Honeycutt 

Braylin Tavera

Luis Almeyda

Joshua Liranzo (somewhat SSS)

Luis De Leon

Carter Baumler

Trace Bright

Francisco Mora

Just curious - why Bright?   What were your expectations for him?

[Warehouse]

4 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Biggest disappointments:

Jackson Holliday

Dylan Beavers

Vance Honeycutt 

Braylin Tavera

Luis Almeyda

Joshua Liranzo (somewhat SSS)

Luis De Leon

Carter Baumler

Trace Bright

Francisco Morao

 

 

Injury disappointments:

Keifer Lord

Teddy Sharkey

Jean Pinto

Max Wagner

Reese Trimble (not in terms of wiping out year but in terms of here we go again)

Noah Denoyer

To pick one, I would probably go with Holliday.  This is despite him still being better than all our other prospects.  However, while I think Jackson will be a very good player, I’m not sure sure he is going to be a star.  For instance, I’d probably take Merrill or Chourio over him now.  
 

The drop off in value in wins or dollars from going from a 70 FV to 60 FV is larger than the overall expected value of a 50 FV prospect.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Just curious - why Bright?   What were your expectations for him?

I'm shocked that anyone still had expectations for Carter Baumler beyond him missing time to injury.

[Warehouse]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm shocked that anyone still had expectations for Carter Baumler beyond him missing time to injury.

32% K rate in Arizona Fall League messed with my expectations.

[Warehouse]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just curious - why Bright?   What were your expectations for him?

K% more in line with last year (35% in Aberdeen in ‘23, 28% in Bowie in ‘23, 24.7% on Bowie in ‘24).  More progress with command.

[jabba72]

Have to go with Jackson Holliday for most disappointing prospect. .543 OPS in 177 PA's shows he's having a rough year. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, jabba72 said:

Have to go with Jackson Holliday for most disappointing prospect. .543 OPS in 177 PA's shows he's having a rough year. 

Yeah, but to put things into perspective he's like only a year older than guys like Alymeda, Maikol Hernandez, or Tavera, all that have flopped in A ball.  

I think Beavers is the winner for most disappointing.  Bowie is a hitter friendly environment.  He's been a low average/low power guy there.  Also, the fact that he's the player that hasn't gone in any trades should tell us all something.  

[Aglets]

Has to be Holliday or Mayo to me.  Both were so highly touted and were /are expected to really help us chase a pennant.  

To have BOTH of them struggling so badly (Holliday at a .543 OPS, Mayo at .310) when we need them the most is really dispiriting.

[wildcard]

On Holliday I say.....He's 20!.    He put up a 908 OPS at AAA.   That he had some trouble in the majors.....He's 20!    Give the young man a break.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

On Holliday I say.....He's 20!.    He put up a 908 OPS at AAA.   That he had some trouble in the majors.....He's 20!    Give the young man a break.

 

No one here is calling him a bust or saying anything harsher than him having a disappointing season.  Do you think he's disappointed with how he has played?

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No one here is calling him a bust or saying anything harsher than him having a disappointing season.  Do you think he's disappointed with how he has played?

The question is who is the O's  most disappointing prospect?   No.   I don't find him the most disappointing at 20.    I'm pretty sure he is pretty confident he will grow into an important major leaguer.  If asked I think he will say he learned a lot.

[Aglets]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

On Holliday I say.....He's 20!.    He put up a 908 OPS at AAA.   That he had some trouble in the majors.....He's 20!    Give the young man a break.

 

And so is Jackson Chourio.

I can't think of anyone who has disappointed me more in 2024.  Doesn't mean he's a bust or a bum.  Just that he has had the biggest gap in terms of expectations vs results.   If you have an alternative answer I'd be curious to listen.