AM, Penn/Andino and Eaton

[Why Not?]

This is pretty much my position. But let's put it this way. I won't say Penn has "zero" upside, but whatever upside he has is sufficiently remote (in the judgment of the Orioles) that it doesn't outweigh the probability that Eaton is the better pitcher now.

Let's say the odds that Eaton is on the Orioles in 2010 are 0, and the odds that Penn is on the Orioles in 2010 are 2.5%. And the odds that Eaton is better than Penn right now are 75%. Do you keep the guy who is likely the worse pitcher in 2009 because of a fairly miniscule chance that he not only will be better than Eaton, but good enough to stick around next year?

Now I am not saying these are the actual odds, but if that is how the Orioles saw it, would you still criticize the decision?

That's too much math for my small brain to digest.

I think it's enough that Eaton is the better choice RIGHT NOW. As you say, the chances that Penn might eventually contribute are pretty low. Whatever we were hoping to milk out of Penn down the line, I think we could find that from another source. Guys like that are flushed out of other systems pretty regularly. In fact, I would not be at all surprised if Penn is available again this season.

In the end the last couple of guys on the staff aren't going to make or break any team.

[Orioles West]

Saying Penn has zero upside is a very uneducated sounding opinion.

Unless of course, he never shows any upside.

Ultimately, I want to agree with you, because I liked Penn a bunch, but a team can't wait forever for potential to blossom.

I think the question for the Orioles was, "Would we rather lose games with Penn on the mound or somebody else (i.e., Eaton and Simon) out there?"

The bottom line is, until Penn proves otherwise, he was just as much a placeholder as Eaton.

-Don (still hopes Penn shows that upside)

[Beltwayman]

Now, on Eaton....:

1) Had discussed Eaton with the Phils all offseason....They actually were targeting him.

3) Mentioned that he felt he threw the ball well in ST and that he had 19 starts last year..10 of which were QS.

First of all, it tells me that the idea of stat analysis and things like that were totally ignored in the case of Adam Eaton.

While your comparing AM's targeting Eaton vs releasing Penn, here's another one for you.

Compare Daniel Cabrera's numbers with Eaton. Why even get Eaton? Why not just keep the guy who will give greater relief to your bull pen.

[Sports Guy]

While your comparing AM's targeting Eaton vs releasing Penn, here's another one for you.

Compare Daniel Cabrera's numbers with Eaton. Why even get Eaton? Why not just keep the guy who will give greater relief to your bull pen.

Yep..Totally agree.

Now, I was for getting rid of Danny C but that was with the provision that we would actually upgrade from him...we didn't.

[crawdad]

Saying Penn has zero upside is a very uneducated sounding opinion.

Correct, just like saying Eaton does not provide the team with some measure of value.

[Sports Guy]

Correct, just like saying Eaton does not provide the team with some measure of value.

Nah...He provides nothing except a placeholder and I would rather have the younger placeholder there.

[Mackus]

Saying Penn has zero upside is a very uneducated sounding opinion.

I just don't think he has any upside left. I don't think he's ever going to amount to anything.

I realize he's young and used to be very highly thought of. I don't think he currently has the stuff, command, control, and poise needed to be a MLB pitcher. And I don't think he'll get it back.

I'm not saying he'll definitely never play any meaningful time in the big leagues, just that I don't think he will. So the hope of him making it eventually is not incentive enough for me to keep him around when he wouldn't be helping us this year at all.

[crawdad]

Nah...He provides nothing except a placeholder and I would rather have the younger placeholder there.

A placeholder is value. I would have preferred a younger placeholder as well. There is good sound reason why someone would choose Eaton. It is not the choice I would make. It is not the choice you would make. But, it is certainly defensible.

[Mackus]

Nah...He provides nothing except a placeholder and I would rather have the younger placeholder there.

I'd rather have the better placeholder now, which I think is Eaton, unless I thought Penn had some long term potential for us, which I no longer do.

Neither answer is definitively right. You can't say that there is obviously a correct way to go in this case. If you like Penn and think he's got some future and think he'd only be a bit worse than Eaton, then go with Penn, fine. If you think Penn is cooked, and Eaton will be better this year, go with Eaton. Both opinions have merit. Acting as if one does and the other doesn't is the only way to get this question wrong.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I just don't think he has any upside left. I don't think he's ever going to amount to anything.

I realize he's young and used to be very highly thought of. I don't think he currently has the stuff, command, control, and poise needed to be a MLB pitcher. And I don't think he'll get it back.

I'm not saying he'll definitely never play any meaningful time in the big leagues, just that I don't think he will. So the hope of him making it eventually is not incentive enough for me to keep him around when he wouldn't be helping us this year at all.

Woudl you rather have him in the rotation right now or Eaton?

[amateurfan]

A placeholder is value. I would have preferred a younger placeholder as well. There is good sound reason why someone would choose Eaton. It is not the choice I would make. It is not the choice you would make. But, it is certainly defensible.

I agree that in our situation, it is defensible, but there's one big stipulation to that: not trying to win this year. Eaton has value only to a losing team as a placeholder.

[Sports Guy]

A placeholder is value. I would have preferred a younger placeholder as well. There is good sound reason why someone would choose Eaton. It is not the choice I would make. It is not the choice you would make. But, it is certainly defensible.

In case I wasn't clear(which definitely may be the case), I don't see Eaton having value in the context that we have younger placeholders with more uspide.

If those guys didn't exist in our organization and we didn't want to "rush the young pitchers", then Eaton would make more sense.

[Mackus]

Woudl you rather have him in the rotation right now or Eaton?

Eaton. I think Penn would be even worse than Eaton is going to be.

Although honestly, I don't think either will be better than the 5.75 ERA, 5-5.5 IP/GS mark that I think the team is hoping to get out of their last rotation spot, so they'll be forced to cut bait and bring up a younger arm earlier than they want to. I don't think we would see either of these guys get more than 5-6 starts at most before we dump them.

[LookinUp]

I agree that in our situation, it is defensible, but there's one big stipulation to that: not trying to win this year. Eaton has value only to a losing team as a placeholder.

To state the obvious...Penn, Pauley and Waters don't have value to a team trying to win this year either.

[crawdad]

I agree that in our situation, it is defensible, but there's one big stipulation to that: not trying to win this year. Eaton has value only to a losing team as a placeholder.

I agree. We are not trying to win. Not sure how we would be in the position to win this upcoming season. We are looking at 74 wins right now. Now find 20 more. That would be about 80MM more on the free agent market if you do your best. 4 top tier players. We have to have enough young quality talent in place in order to usefully supplement talent with free agents. Signing a guy now, so he can sit around collecting paychecks for a team not bound for the playoffs is a waste of money.