A well-kept secret: the O’s rotation has the 6th best ERA in baseball

[Frobby]

I heard Kevin Brown say this on yesterday’s broadcast, and it’s amazing but it’s true: the Orioles’ starting pitchers have a 3.79 ERA, 6th-best in MLB.

We lost Wells, Means and Bradish.  Rodriquez and Kremer have missed time.  Povich has been hit or miss, largely miss.  Irvin pitched his way off the team.  Eflin has been excellent but missed several starts.  Burnes suddenly forgot how to pitch for all of August.  We traded for Trevor Rogers and he lasted 3 starts before we shipped him to AAA.

And yet, here we are, with the 6th best starter ERA in baseball.   

The irony is, our three months of mediocre play started when the rotation faltered.  It was a big reason why the team floundered from late June to mid-August.  Here’s a breakdown of our starters’ season:

March 28 - June 19 (73 games): 3.02 ERA, 5.56 IP/start.  (Offense averaged 5.11 runs per game, team went 48-25.)

June 20 - August 16 (50 games): 5.12 ERA, 5.31 IP/start.  (Offense averaged 5.04 runs per game; team went 24-26.)

August 17 - September 15 (27 games): 3.53 ERA, 5.57 IP/start.  (Offense averaged 3.77 runs/game; team went 12-15.)

You can clearly see here that both the offense and the starting pitching were big reasons for the team’s hot start; starting pitching was then a huge problem for nearly two months but the offense allowed the team to hang in there; and now the starting pitching has been back on track for nearly a month but the offense has sputtered badly during that time and the team hasn’t been able to take advantage of the greatly improved starting pitching.

So I’m trying lo look at this way: The starting pitching faltered badly, largely due to injuries, but eventually regained its balance and is pitching well enough to win now   The offense is now the sputtering component, largely due to injuries.   If the pitching can turn around, who’s to say the offense can’t regain its footing?   I’m not saying it will, but I won’t be that surprised if it does, either.  We’ll see.

Edited Tuesday at 01:59 by Frobby

[higgybaby]

So what are the biggest factors to the offense falling off of a cliff in your view?

[Spy Fox]

32 minutes ago, higgybaby said:

So what are the biggest factors to the offense falling off of a cliff in your view?

The third segment is the only one with 0 plate appearances from Westburg and Mateo, and only a handful of plate appearances from Urias and Mountcastle. The guys soaking up those guys’ playing time have been unable to replicate their production. 

You’ve got a couple other guys slumping but choose any chunk of any season and you’ll find some slumpers. I think losing a complete infield of solid MLB infielders is the #1 suspect. 

[now]

I imagine there's a big increase in errors on defense that coincides with our struggles in the second half.  And not just by second-string players replacing injured starters. (cough*cough*Gunnar)

[sportsfan8703]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I heard Kevin Brown say this on yesterday’s broadcast, and it’s amazing but it’s true: the Orioles’ starting pitchers have a 3.79 ERA, 6th-best in MLB.

We lost Wells, Means and Bradish.  Rodriquez and Kremer have missed time.  Povich has been hit or miss, largely miss.  Irvin pitched his way off the team.  Eflin has been excellent but missed several starts.  Burnes suddenly forgot how to pitch for all of August.  We traded for Trevor Rogers and he lasted 3 starts before we shipped him to AAA.

And yet, here we are, with the 6th best starter ERA in baseball.   

The irony is, our three months of mediocre play started when the rotation faltered.  It was a big reason why the team floundered from late June to mid-August.  Here’s a breakdown of our starters’ season:

March 28 - June 19 (73 games): 3.02 ERA, 5.56 IP/start.  (Offense averaged 5.11 runs per game, team went 48-25.)

June 20 - August 16 (50 games): 5.12 ERA, 5.31 IP/start.  (Offense averaged 5.04 runs per game; team went 24-26.)

August 17 - September 15 (27 games): 3.53 ERA, 5.57 IP/start.  (Offense averaged 3.77 runs/game; team went 12-15.)

You can clearly see here that both the offense and the starting pitching were big reasons for the team’s hot start; starting pitching was then a huge problem for nearly two months but the offense allowed the team to hang in there; and now the starting pitching has been back on track for nearly a month but the offense has sputtered badly during that time and the team hasn’t been able to take advantage of the greatly improved starting pitching.

So I’m trying lo look at this way: The starting pitching faltered badly, largely due to injuries, but eventually regained its balance and is pitching well enough to win now   The offense is now the sputtering component, largely due to injuries.   If the pitching can turn around, who’s to say the offense can’t regain its footing?   I’m not saying it will, but I won’t be that surprised if it does, either.  We’ll see.

Give the pitching coach a raise, fire the hitting coaches. 

[Spakman]

6 hours ago, higgybaby said:

So what are the biggest factors to the offense falling off of a cliff in your view?

Approach

[foxfield]

6 hours ago, higgybaby said:

So what are the biggest factors to the offense falling off of a cliff in your view?

Mountcastle, Hays, Mateo, Westburg, Kjerstad Urias gone.  Replacements not as good and rookie taxes still being paid on Holiday and Mayo.  Add to that Adley and Gunnar either pressing or wearing down or in Adley's case, playing through injury and the reasons for offense falling off isn't hard to see.

 

[Orioles0615]

6 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

The third segment is the only one with 0 plate appearances from Westburg and Mateo, and only a handful of plate appearances from Urias and Mountcastle. The guys soaking up those guys’ playing time have been unable to replicate their production. 

You’ve got a couple other guys slumping but choose any chunk of any season and you’ll find some slumpers. I think losing a complete infield of solid MLB infielders is the #1 suspect. 

Mountcastle hasn’t hit since June and Mateo can’t hit at all 

[Sports Guy]

The problem is, will the returning offensive players (and pitchers) have enough time to rehab and play in real games to get their timing back in time to be factors in the playoffs?

[MCO'sFan]

7 hours ago, now said:

I imagine there's a big increase in errors on defense that coincides with our struggles in the second half.  And not just by second-string players replacing injured starters. (cough*cough*Gunnar)

I don't understand why he started fielding everything one handed and on the run and then throwing on the run. He used to shuffle-shuffle-throw. But then he went to what I can run and gun. It's weird to me. 

[dzorange]

8 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

The third segment is the only one with 0 plate appearances from Westburg and Mateo, and only a handful of plate appearances from Urias and Mountcastle. The guys soaking up those guys’ playing time have been unable to replicate their production. 

You’ve got a couple other guys slumping but choose any chunk of any season and you’ll find some slumpers. I think losing a complete infield of solid MLB infielders is the #1 suspect. 

Jimenez, Rivera, Soto and Slater are getting playing time out of necessity. Mayo, Holliday and Kjerstad have not added anything. There is no more Mountcastle/O'Hearn platoon, there is no depth in the infield (Urias, Westburg, Mateo) and Adley has struggled.

The starters have been very solid, and there's reason to believe that the bullpen and lineup will shape up a bit as we head into the playoffs with these guys coming back from injury. Just hope there's enough time. I'm also not sure what's going to happen with Gray-Rod.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, higgybaby said:

So what are the biggest factors to the offense falling off of a cliff in your view?

It’s not any one thing.  It’s a collective slump.   In the 27-game period referenced above:

Cowser .677

Rutschman .571

O’Hearn .430

Jimenez .404

Holliday .378

RISP hitting also has been poor.   

Point is, these guys can break out if it.  I’m not saying they will, but they’re definitely capable of it.  And if they do, the starting pitching is capable of supporting them. 

Now go do it!

 

[Spy Fox]

3 hours ago, Orioles0615 said:

Mountcastle hasn’t hit since June and Mateo can’t hit at all 

Fair on its own, but the guys filling in for them have hit far worse. Mountcastle since June: .679 OPS. Mateo overall: .668. Getting those mediocre production levels from the likes of Eloy, Mayo, Holliday, and post-expanded-role O'Hearn, would still qualify as a huge improvement. 

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, MCO'sFan said:

I don't understand why he started fielding everything one handed and on the run and then throwing on the run. He used to shuffle-shuffle-throw. But then he went to what I can run and gun. It's weird to me. 

Success, Ala hot dog.Hope I'm  wrong , starting to get a Manny Machado Vibe. Gunner is way better in the field than the last 3 months.

[MCO'sFan]

28 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Success, Ala hot dog.Hope I'm  wrong , starting to get a Manny Machado Vibe. Gunner is way better in the field than the last 3 months.

Your not wrong about the Manny vibe. His body language and facial expressions are not the best. He looks a little like our youngest son and so he is my wife's favorite player and I can't criticize him in front of her, so I can do it here.