Hyde Hot Seat

[Spy Fox]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Lol, I just looked it up, Mayo is already at -0.7 rWAR.  in 37 at bats.

Holliday is at -0.3 rWAR.

Me, @Frobbyand @Sports Guy have provided more value to the Orioles this year.  

Yet Tony refuses to include you in the prospect power rankings!

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Dodgers 

They've also got Ohtani.  And Betts who's at 4.7 rWAR this year despite missing time.  Freeman is at 4.4rWAR despite missing a little time. Yamamoto has made more starts this year than Means, Bradish and Wells combined.  Glasnow still gave them 22 starts.  No Kershaw, but I think they knew that was a possibility headed into the season.

I won't deny that they've had their share of injuries but I do believe their overall talent level is better to begin with.  And it's also not like they've been a machine all year, too.  

[bpilktree67]

1 hour ago, LGOrioles said:

Even with those injuries though, they shouldn’t be nearly as bad as they have been. Sure, they are going to affect the team as a whole, but they’re 35-42 in their last 77 games. Only Colorado, Washington, LAA, Miami, and CHW have a worse record in that time frame. Their minus 52 run differential in those 77 games pro rates to minus 109 over a full season. Only LAA, Miami, Colorado, and CHW are on pace for a run differential that low on the season. Nobody is saying they should still be on pace for 100 wins with the injuries they have had, but they have been just about a bottom 5 team in the MLB the last 3 months. There’s zero excuse for them to be this bad.

The offensive excuses are again also extremely over blown. Mountcastle had a .680 OPS his last 334 PA’s when healthy and has missed less than a month. Urias had a .673 OPS on August 8th and was worth 0 WAR up to that point - he also has only missed a few weeks. Westburg clearly hurts, but Rivera has arguably been their best hitter since he was acquired and Slater has been an above average producer as well. They’ve been bad because after that series in NY, Gunnar went from an 11 WAR superstar to a 6 WAR all star, Rutschman went from a 6 WAR catcher to replacement level, O’Hearn went from a 130 wRC+ hitter to a 90 wRC+ hitter, Mountcastle went from a 126 wRC+ to a 75 wRC+ when healthy, and Westburg went from a 137 wRC+ to a 111 wRC+ when healthy too. Gunnar, Adley, O’Hearn, and Mountcastle were on pace for roughly 23 WAR through that NYY series and have paced at about 8 WAR since. That difference alone is equal to the difference between the Diamondbacks position player WAR (tops in the MLB) and SFG’s (18th).

Injuries have certainly been a factor, but for a drop off this bad, they’re an excuse not the reason. 

Mountcastle had an OPS of .680 which isn’t great but what is the OPS from first base since he has been injured probably close  to .400-.500 That’s like going from a .900 guy to a .600 guy.  How about Urias who was playing great at the time with OPS over .900 the last two months.  They had to replace him with Rivera and Mayo who are Opsing about .600.   They replaced Westburg who has OPS over .800 with Holliday who has OPS of about .500.  So there having to replace 3 positions in the lineup with each one being .200-.300 OPS points worse but nope not the injuries.  We also had to move O’Hearn from DH to 1st and he isn’t hitting like he did prior to the move.  Which opened a hole at DH.  I would put him back at DH honestly and let Santander, Rivera, Mayo try to cover 1st at this point to see if that helps him.  As I have said before you can handle a guy or 2 struggling you can’t have 4 or 5.  1st, 2nd, 3rd, DH, and even catcher are giving us nothing.  

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Yet Tony refuses to include you in the prospect power rankings!

Just shows Tony’s prospect bias. 

[LGOrioles]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I didn't say it was all injuries.  But, fine.  Let's pretend it's just the injuries.

Bradish

Means

G-Rod

Wells

DC

Mateo

Urias

Mountcastle

Westburg

Bradish made 8 starts.  Let's be conservative and say that he would have made 30 starts, that's the same amount he made last year.  A starter that's healthy for a full season makes anywhere from 32-34 starts, but for argument's sake, let's be conservative like I said.

Means made 4 starts.  Let's be conservative and say he would have only made 25.  

G-Rod made 20 starts.  Let's be conservative and say he'd have only made 30.

Wells made 3 starts, let's say be conservative again and say if healthy, he'd have matched the 20 games started last year.  But that doesn't really tell the whole story on him as he could have been effective out of the bullpen, too.

That's 70 starts on the IL.  You can dice those numbers up anyway, you want.  Feel free to knock off 10 or 20 starts off that number if you think I'm being too aggressive, that's still about 1/3 of a season of good starters on the shelf.

DC got into 61 games last year, 29 this year.  Let's say he would have matched that this year.  That's 32 appearances out of the bullpen gone from one of our best relievers.

Westburg has a 2.4 WAR so far this season, he was averaging just under 104 plate appearances per month.  Missed all of August, and will miss probably 2/3 of of September if we're lucky.  That's about 166 plate appearances right there.

Mateo was at 208 plate appearances this year, 350 last year.  Replace that with Holliday who's an absolute zero.  

I don't think I have to keep going, but I think you understand the point.  Add on top of this that Mayo has been a complete zero, Cowser is an automatic strikeout and had a .714 OPS last month and a .666 so far for this month.  

You made the claim that other teams have dealt with injuries much better than the Orioles have, well, I'd be curious to find out if anyone has replaced 70 starts like we have and replaced a minimum of 308 at bats (Westburg and Mateo only, this isn't including Mounty and Urias) with absolute zeros at the plate from our farm system, and ~30 apperances from a key bullpen member.

Oh, and I'm not including Bautista because we knew about him headed into the season.

So, yeah.  Find me a team that's dealt with this many injuries this year and has done as well as Hyde has.  

 

I’m with you on Bradish. For my money, he’s better than Burnes and would have been their ace. They didn’t need to replace 70 starts though. If you give Burnes, Kremer, Eflin, and Suarez both 2 more starts, that gives you 89 between those 4 and then 109 with Rodriguez. Bradish, Wells, and Means started a combined 15 games, so that’s 124 between that group. So that’s 38 starts from lower quality pitchers. 

I just posted that the Yankees missed Judge last year for 56 games (about 250 PA’s that are much more valuable than what the O’s have missed this year) and their fall off was much less dramatic. I’m also not even saying it’s on Hyde, I’m saying it’s on the players to figure it out. The injuries obviously do play a part, but you don’t go from a .636 W% from last year through 6/20 of this year, and a .662 W% the first 74 games of this year, to a .455 W% (and near bottom 5 team in the MLB) the last 77 games due to the injuries you mentioned. Coulombe and Bradish were the only ones who missed that whole time chunk too (while being major contributors the first few months), they started struggling with Rodriguez, Westburg, Mountcastle, Mateo, Urias, and Webb still healthy. 

[dtk9119]

The sleepwalking and body language of this team STARTS with the manager. Therefore, my heart says to put him on the hotseat. But knowing Mr. Analytical, he'll keep Hyde around. Long term, I still maintain Hyde is not the one to take this team to a WS. Bochy showed that in the playoffs last year completely outmanaging Hyde in the 3 game sweep.

[bpilktree67]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

They've also got Ohtani.  And Betts who's at 4.7 rWAR this year despite missing time.  Freeman is at 4.4rWAR despite missing a little time. Yamamoto has made more starts this year than Means, Bradish and Wells combined.  Glasnow still gave them 22 starts.  No Kershaw, but I think they knew that was a possibility headed into the season.

I won't deny that they've had their share of injuries but I do believe their overall talent level is better to begin with.  And it's also not like they've been a machine all year, too.  

Yeah they are only 5 games better than us too.  I think I saw other day they were 25 games over .500 with Betts in lineup and 4 games over without him in lineup.  

[Too Tall]

From 2018 to 2022 the Orioles under Elias tanked to rebuild this system. Even started and enhanced an international presence. Hyde endured those years and led the team to 101 wins last year and the Eastern Division Crown. Was named Manager of The Year. IMO, for Elias to now fire Hyde, he'd have to think and show this year was Hyde's fault. I don't see any way that happens and if he would, I would start a fire Elias thread because he would have shown a side I don't think he has. Because to me, this year is more on Elias than Hyde and Elias isn't going anywhere either. Now, after this season, it will get interesting on both fronts

[LGOrioles]

6 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Yeah they are only 5 games better than us too.  I think I saw other day they were 25 games over .500 with Betts in lineup and 4 games over without him in lineup.  

They also missed Muncy for about 90 games, who has been worth 2 WAR in 60 games.

The injuries are clearly a factor for the O’s, they’re just not the main reason they’re this bad. Imagine the Dodgers injuries, but Ohtani having his OPS drop by .100 points, Will Smith turning into a replacement level catcher, and Teoscar Hernandez having his wRC+ drop by 30+ points. That’s pretty much what happened to the O’s.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

They also missed Muncy for about 90 games, who has been worth 2 WAR in 60 games.

The injuries are clearly a factor for the O’s, they’re just not the main reason they’re this bad. Imagine the Dodgers injuries, but Ohtani having his OPS drop by .100 points, Will Smith turning into a replacement level catcher, and Teoscar Hernandez having his wRC+ drop by 30+ points. That’s pretty much what happened to the O’s.

Yea they are the main reason..nothing is close.

[LGOrioles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea they are the main reason..nothing is close.

I don’t think they’re a playoff team without the injuries with this current iteration of Gunnar, Adley, O’Hearn, and Mountcastle (based off his previous 3 months when healthy). They’d be a lot better than they are right now though. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

I don’t think they’re a playoff team without the injuries with this current iteration of Gunnar, Adley, O’Hearn, and Mountcastle (based off his previous 3 months when healthy). They’d be a lot better than they are right now though. 

There is so much wrong with this, it’s hard to know where to begin:

1) How much value would the guys who are hurt be bringing to the team?

2) If those guys are here and the scrubs aren’t and they are performing, is as much pressure put on the rest of the team?

3) How much better would the defense be?

4) Would the pen have been even stronger at protecting leads?

5) would Grayson’s presence push Guys to the pen and make that stronger?

6) How many players playing too much would be fresher and better?  How many would be less exposed?

 

To name a few.

[Spy Fox]

8 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

I don’t think they’re a playoff team without the injuries with this current iteration of Gunnar, Adley, O’Hearn, and Mountcastle (based off his previous 3 months when healthy). They’d be a lot better than they are right now though. 

Huh? They're about to be a playoff team even with all the injuries and with the current iteration of those guys. 

[Fuzzball22]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I didn't say it was all injuries.  But, fine.  Let's pretend it's just the injuries.

Bradish

Means

G-Rod

Wells

DC

Mateo

Urias

Mountcastle

Westburg

Bradish made 8 starts.  Let's be conservative and say that he would have made 30 starts, that's the same amount he made last year.  A starter that's healthy for a full season makes anywhere from 32-34 starts, but for argument's sake, let's be conservative like I said.

Means made 4 starts.  Let's be conservative and say he would have only made 25.  

G-Rod made 20 starts.  Let's be conservative and say he'd have only made 30.

Wells made 3 starts, let's say be conservative again and say if healthy, he'd have matched the 20 games started last year.  But that doesn't really tell the whole story on him as he could have been effective out of the bullpen, too.

That's 70 starts on the IL.  You can dice those numbers up anyway you want.  Feel free to knock off 10 or 20 starts off that number if you think I'm being too aggressive, that's still about 1/3 of a season of good starters on the shelf.

DC got into 61 games last year, 29 this year.  Let's say he would have matched that this year.  That's 32 appearances out of the bullpen gone from one of our best relievers.

Westburg has a 2.4 WAR so far this season, he was averaging just under 104 plate appearances per month.  Missed all of August, and will miss probably 2/3 of of September if we're lucky.  That's about 166 plate appearances right there.

Mateo was at 208 plate appearances this year, 350 last year.  Replace that with Holliday who's an absolute zero.  

I don't think I have to keep going, but I think you understand the point.  Add on top of this that Mayo has been a complete zero, Cowser is an automatic strikeout and had a .714 OPS last month and a .666 so far for this month.  

You made the claim that other teams have dealt with injuries much better than the Orioles have, well, I'd be curious to find out if anyone has replaced 70 starts like we have and replaced a minimum of 308 at bats (Westburg and Mateo only, this isn't including Mounty and Urias) with absolute zeros at the plate from our farm system, and ~30 apperances from a key bullpen member.

Oh, and I'm not including Bautista because we knew about him headed into the season.

So, yeah.  Find me a team that's dealt with this many injuries this year and has done as well as Hyde has.  

 

Just to add on to this, what makes it worse is that we are losing these players at the same time. if we lose Mounty for 6 weeks at the start and Westburg a couple weeks after Mountcastle is back the impact of the injuries is not as bad. When we have all these players out at the same time it just amplifies the impact on the team. We are playing scrubs and rookies who have not lived up to expectations.

[dystopia]

Has there been any reports of a team meeting being called? If not, why not?