Orioles vs Tigers/KC (Wild Card series)

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, e16bball said:

Don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything quite like this. Detroit’s most used hitters and pitchers since August 1:

 

Of their 7 most utilized hitters, the lowest BABIP is .328. All 7 of those marks would rank in the top 25 in baseball over the course of the full season, and 5 of them would be squarely in the top 10.

Predictably, they’re mostly getting vastly better results than their contact quality would expect. Comparing expected stats to actual, you have Vierling (actual BA 27 points higher than xBA), McKinstry (+26), Meadows (+20), Carpenter (+19), and Torkelson (+10) all hitting at least 10 points better than their expected average. That is, as one might be inclined to say, outrageous fortune.

On top of that, all 8 of their most used pitchers are also (roughly) outpitching their peripherals. Brieske, Hanifee, Holton, and even Foley are all getting results that massively exceed what the metrics expect their performance has warranted. 

In short, this is a team that is playing pretty well, but they’re also getting extremely lucky. In theory, that should be a good thing for us, as their likely opponent next week. But there’s no real reason why this remarkable run of charmed results would just instantly stop because the playoffs have started — so I guess it’s in the eye of the beholder.

Sounds too much like the 2014 Royals for my liking. 

[Uli2001]

7 hours ago, OrioleintheATL said:

100% Detroit.  I laugh at anyone who wants to see KC instead.   Anyone saying they'd rather play KC can only be becuase Detroit has been hot since the All-star break.  That's it.  But.....if you choose that as your argument, then you are excusing them or sucking for ALL of their play before the ASB.  

 

So help me here, if you want KC instead, what part of KC looks weaker:

KC team batting avg  for an entire season is .250.  Detroit's is .235 for the season so...........

KC has hit more HR's, KC team OPS is .714, Detroit is .686; KC better slugging, KC averages more runs, KC has stolen 85% more bases so..........

Detroit has a slightly better team ERA and a slightly better team WHIP.  KC has two STUD starters, Detroit has one and then smoke and mirrors, opener/bulk pitcher clown show that will catch up with them in the playofs or really in any game where they don't get completely fortunate and have it work perfectly (rarely).

Yes, they beat us 4 out of the recent six games but having watched every minute of all of them, it easily could have been 4-2 or better in our favor.   KC has alot more talent and is defintely the tougher out.

 

 

Now do since the ASB. Detroit has been the best team in the AL since then.

[eddie83]

So does McCann get a start vs Skubal? With Adley at DH.
 

Not sure it would be better with Adley catching and someone else at DH.  
 

Mountcastle 1B

Westy 2B

Gunnar SS

Urias 3B 

Slater LF

Cowser/Mullins CF

Santander RF

Bench 

Rivera 

Holliday 

O’Hearn 

Kjerstad 

Mayo?

Depends on number of P’s carrying  

 

[Warehouse]

What is our best lineup vs Skubal?
 

Below is xwOBA vs LHP this year:

Player	2024	Aug/Sep
Mounty	.377	.262
Adley	.352	.284
Westy	.344	.190*
Ramon	.334	.454
Silent J	.333*	.350*
Tony	.326	.266
McCann	.320	.566*
Gunnar	.318	.336
Rivera	.315	.351
Milkman	.297	.218
Slater	.294	.316
Ced	.256	.327

*small sample size of <20 PAs

Adley and Tony’s slumps from the right side plus Mounty’s absence had really hurt us vs LHP the last few months.

I think best lineup is possibly:

1. Westburg 2B

2. Adley DH

3. Mountcastle 1B

4. Gunnar SS

5. Santander RF

6. Ramon 3B

7. McCann C

8. Slater LF

9. Mullins CF

 

I don’t think Cowser matches up well against Skubal so I’d go with Mullins and Slater with the latter replaced by Cowser when Skubal is done.

The challenge with this lineup McCann ends up locked in at C the whole game unless we are willing to lose the DH.

Alternate options:

   -  Adley as catcher, DH Kjerstad or Rivera

   -  Adley starts on bench and replaces McCann when Skubal is done; DH Kjerstad or Rivera

[HowAboutThat]

This is an excerpt from Jayson Stark’s MLB Awards article at the Athletic, about AL Cy Young Heir Apparent Tarik Skubal. The section on Skubal is pretty impressive, but this is the sobering part:

 

“He’s(Skubal)not even hittable in the strike zone — Skubal’s manager, A.J. Hinch, told me earlier this year: “I love the way Tarik has dominated the strike zone.” Do we pay enough attention to that? I’d vote no. It’s telling us all we need to know that, according to Statcast, Skubal has …

• The best rate of pitches in the strike zone of any AL pitcher (56.6 percent)

• The AL’s second-highest swing-and-miss rate on pitches in the zone (19.9 percent)

So he’s filling up the strike zone and still not getting hit (.200 opponent average, 0.70 HR per nine innings). That’s what Cy Youngs do, my friends.

He overpowers hitters with all five pitches — I wrote about this two months ago in my midseason awards column. It’s worth repeating. How often do you run across a starter who throws five pitches — and hitters have a batting average of .207 or less against four of them?

Does that seem good? Well, how about this: None of those four are even his best pitch! That’s his changeup, which has a ridiculous 47 percent whiff rate (82 strikeouts, 49 hits against one of this sport’s most untouchable invisi-balls).

But also … Opposing cleanup hitters are hitting .159/.214/.220 against this guy (with three extra-base hits all season). That computes to an OPS+ of 20! … He’s faced 196 hitters leading off an inning. He’s walked only six — and struck out 60. … He’s faced 129 hitters with men in scoring position. He’s walked two — and struck out 47. Which is also their OPS+ in those situations — 47!”

It is equally sobering that all five “finalists” for the award are on playoff teams, and two of them, Ragans and Lugo, play for the Royals.

What Fun!

Seriously, how does Cowser make it into the lineup against this guy, when breaking balls are his Achilles heel?

[JR Oriole]

8 hours ago, Uli2001 said:

Now do since the ASB. Detroit has been the best team in the AL since then.

I think overall they are 31-11 in their last 42.  That is scary. Regardless of their on paper talent, I never discount the unique threat of playing a "hot" team that truly believes they will win every game and believes every break will go their way.  If you watch Meadows' at-bats, he has a plate presence and confidence that is rare for a rookie. In fact, all of their hitters seem to be locked in during key situations. And they know all they need is 4 runs because somehow every pitcher on their team other than Skubal has become as good as Skubal. I don't even know if they have a second "starting" pitcher because they keep doing this bulk game crap that makes it extremely hard to game plan. And everyone they have can somehow throw 2 - 3 innings every day.  

I remember the 2007 Rockies were 76-72.  They went 13-1 to close the regular season, won a one game playoff against San Diego, swept Philadelphia, and swept Arizona. A 21-1 run over 22 games to get to the World Series. The 2021 Braves were 56-56 and went 32-17 to win the division, then beat Milwaukee, LA, and Houston to win the World Series.  Those infamous 2014 Royals that still give us nightmares......we lost that ALCS 4 games to 0 even though we were only outscored by 6 total runs. So the idea that we played Detroit very close in our 4 losses this month (when we never even saw Skubal) does not make me feel any better. The current Royals (2024) were just like the Tigers for a stretch in August when they caught Cleveland.  Then, when Vinnie P got injured, their mojo fell apart.  

At the very least, I am glad that we don't seem to be heading into the postseason like we did last year. I think Boston starters in that last 4-game series held us to 1 run in 25 innings.  I know the games didn't mean much at the very end, but we went in with very cold bats. 

We may have a more talented and experienced overall roster than Detroit, but we spent most of the last three months looking like we expected bad things to happen.  They have spent the last 7 weeks extremely confident that everything will work out for them. And a supremely confident team is a very dangerous team.

[Warehouse]

18 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

Seriously, how does Cowser make it into the lineup against this guy, when breaking balls are his Achilles heel?

He doesn’t, unless Hyde makes an unforced error.  Slater and Mullins give us a better chance.

[Too Tall]

If it's the Royals, it's payback time. The Tigers are much more worrisome. And, I have a lot of respect for what they have and are building. They have had a bad streatch of losing over the last decade and have come out blazing over the last two months. Like the 2022 O's, they were not suspose to be here. If we draw the Royals and lose, I'll be pissed. If we draw the Tigers and lose, I'll tip my hat to them and root they go all the way. Either series is going to be tough.

[HowAboutThat]

8 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

He doesn’t, unless Hyde makes an unforced error.  Slater and Mullins give us a better chance.

Let’s see…

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Warehouse said:

What is our best lineup vs Skubal?
 

Below is xwOBA vs LHP this year:

Player	2024	Aug/Sep
Mounty	.377	.262
Adley	.352	.284
Westy	.344	.190*
Ramon	.334	.454
Silent J	.333*	.350*
Tony	.326	.266
McCann	.320	.566*
Gunnar	.318	.336
Rivera	.315	.351
Milkman	.297	.218
Slater	.294	.316
Ced	.256	.327

*small sample size of <20 PAs

Adley and Tony’s slumps from the right side plus Mounty’s absence had really hurt us vs LHP the last few months.

I think best lineup is possibly:

1. Westburg 2B

2. Adley DH

3. Mountcastle 1B

4. Gunnar SS

5. Santander RF

6. Ramon 3B

7. McCann C

8. Slater LF

9. Mullins CF

 

I don’t think Cowser matches up well against Skubal so I’d go with Mullins and Slater with the latter replaced by Cowser when Skubal is done.

The challenge with this lineup McCann ends up locked in at C the whole game unless we are willing to lose the DH.

Alternate options:

   -  Adley as catcher, DH Kjerstad or Rivera

   -  Adley starts on bench and replaces McCann when Skubal is done; DH Kjerstad or Rivera

Slater has been garbage against LHP this year. Way worse than Cowser, who you’ve inexplicably excluded. Rivera should be the DH and we don’t need to see McCann. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I hate the Skubal matchup. But, at least we have three RHB’s back and Burnes on the mound opposite.

It does suck though, it feels like the tigers are playing with house money. Almost like the D backs last year.

We should have been playing with house money last year too until the rangers punched us in the mouth.

Hoping we can pay it forward. 

Edited 7 minutes ago by Grt 2BA FL Gator

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

This is also a funny story line. We talk about revenge against the Royals. Tigers looking to avenge their 2014 loss to us.

Three clubs that have been poor in the 21st century having to wait 10 years to avenge playoff losses. 

Edited 4 minutes ago by Grt 2BA FL Gator