Jump to content

Observations at the end of the regular season....

Sanity Check

By Sanity Check
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

Sanity Check Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Sanity Check

Posted
Posted

1. If the Orioles had signed Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo and Chris Sale to bolster our pitching staff last off-season, this place would have gone ballistic, and not in a good way.

2.  The Orioles ended the regular season last year flat as a pancake, and it carried into the offseason.  This year, while under the pressure of trying to keep up with the Yankees, the team struggled mightily to find consistent offense and any overall consistency.  Once that pressure waned with us knowing our destiny, guys seemed to loosen up, and we saw the offense come back.  I thought that might happen.  However, my question is, after laying an egg in the playoffs last year and recent struggles despite the last two series, does the pressure of the postseason put us back in the funk we saw throughout most of August and September?

3.  I've seen a consistent theme in this forum over the past week or two which is this:  "All we have to do is get hot at the right time, like Texas did last year."  While I agree that's true, and want us to be that team this year, isn't that statement kind of an admission that without getting hot, we're not good enough on our own merits to persevere in the tournament?  And before I get crucified for saying that, I'll point to what everyone has witnessed in recent months:  Bad/inconsistent bullpen, inconsistent offense, questions about our starting pitching, defensive lapses and being prone to not showing up offensively.  And please, let's not act like some, or all of these, don't exist.  

That all being said, Go O's!!!!!  Let's get hot!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BRobinsonfan All-Star

BRobinsonfan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Sanity Check said:

1. If the Orioles had signed Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo and Chris Sale to bolster our pitching staff last off-season, this place would have gone ballistic, and not in a good way.

2.  The Orioles ended the regular season last year flat as a pancake, and it carried into the offseason.  This year, while under the pressure of trying to keep up with the Yankees, the team struggled mightily to find consistent offense and any overall consistency.  Once that pressure waned with us knowing our destiny, guys seemed to loosen up, and we saw the offense come back.  I thought that might happen.  However, my question is, after laying an egg in the playoffs last year and recent struggles despite the last two series, does the pressure of the postseason put us back in the funk we saw throughout most of August and September?

3.  I've seen a consistent theme in this forum over the past week or two which is this:  "All we have to do is get hot at the right time, like Texas did last year."  While I agree that's true, and want us to be that team this year, isn't that statement kind of an admission that without getting hot, we're not good enough on our own merits to persevere in the tournament?  And before I get crucified for saying that, I'll point to what everyone has witnessed in recent months:  Bad/inconsistent bullpen, inconsistent offense, questions about our starting pitching, defensive lapses and being prone to not showing up offensively.  And please, let's not act like some, or all of these, don't exist.  

That all being said, Go O's!!!!!  Let's get hot!!

I think the "offense coming back" had more to do with the offense coming back (from injuries) and less to do about them "knowing their destiny and loosening up."  

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Sanity Check said:

isn't that statement kind of an admission that without getting hot, we're not good enough on our own merits to persevere in the tournament? 

I don’t think so, any more than usual.  I think the team that wins is usually a team that is playing above its average level at the time.  There was no super team in baseball this year - they all had their ups and downs.   So we’ll see who picks the right time to play well.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted

1. It's not too hard to cherry pick guys who had success in hindsight. The problem is picking those guys in advance. Not sure what your point is here. Yes, it would suck losing to a pitcher like Lugo but maybe Danny Coulombe gets some big outs or Ramon Urias is the series MVP. 

2. Last year we choked. Hope it's different this year. Also let's not forget the opponent matters. Sometimes you run into a buzzsaw, it happens. 

3. We have all the pieces necessary to win a championship but there are 11 other teams and it's hard to win the WS. Yes, we have weaknesses. If I had to guess, we will beat KC but fall short of the championship. Whatever happens, go O's. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spy Fox Hangout Veteran Council

Spy Fox

Posted
Posted

Other than having to get through the WC round, I think this roster is situated equally or better than last year's to make a run. Yes they won 10 fewer games but when you look at talent going into October, this year's team is just as capable. 

Reflecting on this season, I think the two greatest differences from last year are 1) the in-season injuries, 2) not having Bautista. With many of our injured guys back, Eflin filling in for one of the injured SP spots, and Bautista missing last year's postseason anyways, those two things aren't differences in October. 

So, I think the "maybe we can go on a run like Texas" emphasis comes from watching the team struggle for two months. Not because they are only good enough if they get get hot. I think on top to bottom talent it is still them and the Yankees as the two best teams in the AL. NYY, Cleveland, and Houston will not be happy if Baltimore shows up on their schedule and will be relieved if KC gets through. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Spy Fox
      Observations at the end of the regular season....

      By Spy Fox · Posted

      Other than having to get through the WC round, I think this roster is situated equally or better than last year's to make a run. Yes they won 10 fewer games but when you look at talent going into October, this year's team is just as capable.  Reflecting on this season, I think the two greatest differences from last year are 1) the in-season injuries, 2) not having Bautista. With many of our injured guys back, Eflin filling in for one of the injured SP spots, and Bautista missing last year's postseason anyways, those two things aren't differences in October.  So, I think the "maybe we can go on a run like Texas" emphasis comes from watching the team struggle for two months. Not because they are only good enough if they get get hot. I think on top to bottom talent it is still them and the Yankees as the two best teams in the AL. NYY, Cleveland, and Houston will not be happy if Baltimore shows up on their schedule and will be relieved if KC gets through. 
    • Frobby
      Can Cowser still win Rookie of The Year over Gil/Wells ?

      By Frobby · Posted

      DRS is part of dWAR, the part that’s unadjusted for difficulty of position, and expressed in runs, not wins.   If I wanted to know how good Cowser was as a LF, I’d never look at dWAR, I’d look at his DRS as a LF (he also played CF).   Honestly, I kind of wish BB-ref wouldn’t even publish dWAR, since it’s misinterpreted so often.  You could calculate the Fsbgraphs equivalent of dWAR, but they don’t publish it, so nobody ever mentions it.   But anyway, I agree that the best approach is to look at all the metrics and not adhere slavishly to any one of them.  And, I agree completely with your sssessment of Cowser.  I love his range, and he gets excellent jumps, but I hope he spends a lot of time this winter working on the accuracy of his throws, which is quite subpar.     
    • Sports Guy
      Jackson Holliday 2024

      By Sports Guy · Posted

      It’s possible but I think he is also your Mateo pinch runner guy. In other words, I think they will save him until the end of the game just in case they need his speed.
    • Just Regular
      Jackson Holliday 2024

      By Just Regular · Posted

      Will he get 1 PA in the ALWC series? To put flesh on the bones, say against Lucas Erceg on for a Save at James McCann's spot in the lineup. He is behind all of O'Hearn, Mountcastle and Kjerstad probably on the depth chart, but if you get Ragans out by the 5th or 6th they could all be used before the endgame.
    • Spy Fox
      Can Cowser still win Rookie of The Year over Gil/Wells ?

      By Spy Fox · Posted

      The race is close enough that the run environment should be a factor. In the steroid era or bouncy ball 2019, 15 W/3.50 ERA might be a much better performance than a .242 AVG/24 HR/good defense. Which is more impressive in light-hitting 2024? The whole league hit .243 this year, tied with 2022 as the lowest since... 1968.  I'd probably vote for Gil but I kinda feel like Cowser will win it in a close race. And I'm not sure NY bias is a thing in awards voting anymore with the more online media landscape and more stat-educated voters. When's the last time a NY player won an end of season award they didn't deserve? 
    • Tony-OH
      Can Cowser still win Rookie of The Year over Gil/Wells ?

      By Tony-OH · Posted

      All of what you posted is why you have to take both dWAR and fWAR with a grain of salt when it comes to valuing defense.  OAA strictly gives you how good a player is at his position vs other players at his position. There is no guessing involved. Now could OAA receive some tweaking, especially with infielders, I think so. I don't think OAA is perfect by any means, but let's say Santana did save his team 12 runs and let's say a SS was at 0 runs saved. Why should he be penalized for playing a less stressful position? In the end he did save runs vs a SS that didn't save or lose runs. I guess in the end you look at all the defensive metrics (OAA, dWAR, DRS) and then make your opinion based off them. I also use my scouting eye and watching most of the games, I'd say Cowser is an above average defensive outfielder with plus arm strength and way below average accuracy.
    • Just Regular
      A well-kept secret: the O’s rotation has the 6th best ERA in baseball

      By Just Regular · Posted

      Burnes and Eflin were fantastic keeping the team moving forward in a year Felix, Bradish and Grayson were mostly gone. It is fuzzy for me if you combine Elias' team's results in the cases of Albert Suarez and Trevor Rogers if that's a good job or a bad job. Some talk about people like Pivetta, but I don't see a ton of April/May/June demand.     Eflin, Grayson, Kremer, Povich and Suarez leave Rogers, McDermott and Young 6/7/8 already.    Are those guys ever going to pitch? Povich and Suarez showed enough in September it seems worth it to see April. We rarely see a decision Elias doesn't like to defer, and the first half of 2025 will give information how the roster needs to be managed.    How strong is Felix?    What setbacks do Bradish and Wells have?    Can Grayson hold up more than 2 straight months? Elias is building a body of work he'll win the bids for Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin when necessary, but I don't think this winter is one of those times.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...