Jump to content

Is Matt Wieters >Adley?


bub668

Recommended Posts

I do feel like Adley is out of shape or at least has gotten more out of shape than usual. That’s part of the reason I think he’s hurt…not working out as much.

If he is healthy and the slump is this bad, I’m ok questioning whether or not the new GF(ie the distraction) is part of it. Is he putting everything into the game that he should?  

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Adley has been in a horrible almost 4 month slump. Before that, he was the WAY BETTER offensive player.

But I pose this question: What does it matter if Rutschman turns out to be worse than Wieters?

Matt Wieters was drafted almost TWENTY YEARS AGO. No one in this org had anything to do with him being on our roster. HEck none of our current front office was even here for his entire Orioles' career.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wieters' bWAR was 13.3 through his first 4 seasons (2009 - 2012).  It ended at 18.3 after his last season in 2020, so he was basically ineffective for the last 8 years of his career. Adley's bWAR is 13.1 through his first 3 seasons.

So it isn't like Wieters didn't have a strong start to his career just like Adley did.  I think the concern that folks have is that the rest of Adley's career will play out like the rest of Wieters' career.  It seemed very unlikely halfway through this year, but this has been one hell of a drop-off.  

And after Wieters never lived up to expectations, it is definitely a fear that we may be reliving this again.  Let's hope this second half was just an aberration. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

Wieters' bWAR was 13.3 through his first 4 seasons (2009 - 2012).  It ended at 18.3 after his last season in 2020, so he was basically ineffective for the last 8 years of his career. Adley's bWAR is 13.1 through his first 3 seasons.

So it isn't like Wieters didn't have a strong start to his career just like Adley did.  I think the concern that folks have is that the rest of Adley's career will play out like the rest of Wieters' career.  It seemed very unlikely halfway through this year, but this has been one hell of a drop-off.  

And after Wieters never lived up to expectations, it is definitely a fear that we may be reliving this again.  Let's hope this second half was just an aberration. 

 

Allowing a bad half a season, without having the info of why, to totally change your view and expectations of a player is foolish…especially when that player was the best at his position prior to that slump.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I do feel like Adley is out of shape or at least has gotten more out of shape than usual. That’s part of the reason I think he’s hurt…not working out as much.

If he is healthy and the slump is this bad, I’m ok questioning whether or not the new GF(ie the distraction) is part of it. Is he putting everything into the game that he should?  

Questioning whether or not the new GF is a distraction is one of your sillier takes, SG.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Questioning whether or not the new GF is a distraction is one of your sillier takes, SG.

 

 

Why is that silly?  You don’t think off field distractions happen to athletes?

It’s one thing to have a slump. It’s another thing to be bad for a while because of injury.

But if he is just bad for this long, with no reason behind it, it’s entirely fair to wonder if there are things outside the lines that are bothering or distracting him.

A relationship can obviously be one of those things.

Edited by Sports Guy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Posts

    • Any chance Holliday gets the start today? I would assume no…but he did have a good last game and came in for Gunnar and drew another walk.  Urias is 7-29 since coming back and one of those hits was a gift double yesterday.  To be clear, I’m not saying they should start Holliday, just wondering if they would consider it.
    • They are a better match up on paper than Ragans, but I don't think that's really the issue here. This offense has a puckered sphincter problem. They tense up at the slightest of pressure. The matchups probably don't matter at this point until someone will give them a lead and take off some of the pressure. Anytime this team gets behind they pucker up because the pressure is on. If they can get a lead early, it will take some of that pressure off and maybe, they can win the game. If they get behind though they are done.
    • He was very good.  Really hope to see him get a chance again this year.
    • He didn't carry us?  He pitched 8 innings of 1-run ball.  And newsflash - if he'd pitched 8 shutout innings, we very possibly would have still lost.  Was he supposed to also hit a home run to tie the game?  Talking about the starter not carrying us when he pitched 8 and we lost 1-0 is a wild take.
    • It’s 100% fair to wonder if players can calm themselves down and get their heart beat down.    I think Westburg can do this.
    • The key decision is (a) Mounty at 1B and O’Hearn at DH, or (b) O’Hearn at 1B and Kjerstad at DH. Weighing all of the considerations, I would go with (b). If the decision were just Mounty or O’Hearn at first base with the other on the bench, I think the clear choice would be O’Hearn.  Mounty is perhaps 15 runs better on defense over a full season than O’Hearn, though gap may have narrowed some with O’Hearn getting more reps over the last month.  To offset that, his wOBA needs to be ~30 points higher.  Since 2023, O’Hearn’s wOBA vs. RHP has been .47 better than Mounty and his xwOBA has been .41 better.     For Kjerstad, it becomes the same question - do you think his bat today will be in the neighborhood of .30 wOBA points than Mounty.  It’s a tougher question to answer given Kjerstad’s lighter track record.  However, when you factor in Lugo’s platoon splits, the Wall, and Mounty’s prospects against a pitcher with a 9-pitch arsenal, I’m inclined to go with O’Hearn/Kjerstad.   Further, I would prioritize getting momentum on offense - it’s really important to score early and there is a high likelihood that there isn’t a defensive play that Mounty would make and O’Hearn wouldn’t (I know there was one yesterday).  Additionally, Mounty off the bench provides more pinch-hitting flexibility.
    • The Os only have 32 at bats vs Lugo but they have been successful. No one than 6 PA vs him. Slater is the one with 6 at bats and he has 3 hits vs him. Mountcastle, Mullins and Westburg each have 2 hits vs him. Cowser and Westburg have a homer and Westy and Santander each have a triple.  Cowser has the only walk. The Os scored 4 runs, had 9 hits, 1 BB and only struck out once when they faced him in April. So again, like the one Ragans start, they had a lot of hits and a good approach…but can they carry that over?   Lugo had one bad start in September, vs Detroit. The rest of the month, he pitched 23 innings and gave up 3 runs. He shut down the Giants, Yankees and Cleveland. His last outing was 2 innings vs Atlanta and they didn’t store off of him.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...