Would you say that the Tigers rebuild is more successful than the O's?

[e16bball]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The current approach of getting really lucky?  Their BABiP are off the charts good and have been for a few months. That isn’t sustainable.

This whole make contact and hope for the best approach isn’t a good approach.

100% correct, except that they don’t even make contact.

Even from 8/15 to the end of the season — their highest point and our lowest — they had a substantially higher whiff rate than the O’s did. DET swung and missed on 26.6% of their swings during that span (26th in the league) and their K rate was 27.1% (27th in the league). Those numbers have remained the same (actually a tick worse) in the playoffs. By comparison, the Orioles were at a 22.9% whiff rate (12th in the league) and a 23.4% K rate (15th in the league).

Folks are trying awfully hard to make the Tigers make sense. They just really don’t. They’re a mediocre team on a remarkable heater right now. Fun story, but no one really wants us to become like the actual Tigers, unless there’s some way to bottle this incredible good fortune they’re having.

Edited 3 hours ago by e16bball

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

It’s the current approach, not what they did all year, that I was talking about. 

You can't take your May stats to the batter's box in October.  We found that out.  

You could make the argument that they're in a better position than us long term just because of their division.  Who spends in that division?  Also, even our low spending team like the Rays just missed out on the post season for the first time in like 15 years.  

I just want us to win, and actually be in a playoff series.  I think we're all on the same page as that.  Elias doesn't need to do anything drastic, but we do need some moves this offseason.  If anything, just to keep up with our division.  The Red Sox might not be less frugal forever.  The Rays will be back, they always are.  The Jays have a heck of a SP staff.  It's not doom and gloom for us, but we need some tinkering.  

[Tony-OH]

On 10/10/2024 at 11:10 AM, Sports Guy said:

Would you trade their roster and farm system for ours?

I'd trade where they are in the post season compared to where the Orioles are at currently.

Having a great farm system and winning 90+ games two years in a row means absolutely nothing when you can't win a single playoff games. 

NOT A SINGLE PLAYOFF GAME! 

People can talk about the randomness of the playoffs all they want, but this squad with this core has won ZERO playoff games against two wildcard teams that were struggling before they played the Orioles.

It's not like the Orioles didn't win a series. They haven't won a game. They scored an absolutely embarrassing one run in two games this year after getting embarrassed last year against the Rangers. Oh by the way, 4 of the 5 losses were at HOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So say what you want about how the organizations "health" is, the Tigers are one game away from being in the ALCS.

Meanwhile, the Orioles "#1 prospect in all of baseball" hit and fielded like a pitcher and couldn't even start in a playoff game. Having a "great farm system" means nothing if you can't win playoff baseball games. 

[Tony-OH]

52 minutes ago, e16bball said:

100% correct, except that they don’t even make contact.

Even from 8/15 to the end of the season — their highest point and our lowest — they had a substantially higher whiff rate than the O’s did. DET swung and missed on 26.6% of their swings during that span (26th in the league) and their K rate was 27.1% (27th in the league). Those numbers have remained the same (actually a tick worse) in the playoffs. By comparison, the Orioles were at a 22.9% whiff rate (12th in the league) and a 23.4% K rate (15th in the league).

Folks are trying awfully hard to make the Tigers make sense. They just really don’t. They’re a mediocre team on a remarkable heater right now. Fun story, but no one really wants us to become like the actual Tigers, unless there’s some way to bottle this incredible good fortune they’re having.

I'd argue folks are trying awfully hard to downplay teams that play well in the playoffs as "lucky." 

Tell you what, sign me up for some "luck." 

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd argue folks are trying awfully hard to downplay teams that play well in the playoffs as "lucky." 

Tell you what, sign me up for some "luck." 

 

Luck is always a major part of winning in the playoffs.

[SteveA]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Luck is always a major part of winning in the playoffs.

And there are also ways of measuring luck.   Hard hit balls that are right at someone, etc.

Now I haven't done the research, but I suspect that if you look at our 5 playoff losses and evaluated things like hard hit balls, you would not find that we were particularly unlucky.   We weren't hitting line drives all over the park that just happened to be right at people for the most part.   A lot of weak flyouts and groundouts.   So that is less attributable to bad luck as it is to just having shitty at bats.

 

[JR Oriole]

25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd trade where they are in the post season compared to where the Orioles are at currently.

Having a great farm system and winning 90+ games two years in a row means absolutely nothing when you can't win a single playoff games. 

NOT A SINGLE PLAYOFF GAME! 

People can talk about the randomness of the playoffs all they want, but this squad with this core has won ZERO playoff games against two wildcard teams that were struggling before they played the Orioles.

It's not like the Orioles didn't win a series. They haven't won a game. They scored an absolutely embarrassing one run in two games this year after getting embarrassed last year against the Rangers. Oh by the way, 4 of the 5 losses were at HOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So say what you want about how the organizations "health" is, the Tigers are one game away from being in the ALCS.

Meanwhile, the Orioles "#1 prospect in all of baseball" hit and fielded like a pitcher and couldn't even start in a playoff game. Having a "great farm system" means nothing if you can't win playoff baseball games. 

I think this is spot on in every way.  But I think the fanbase is somewhat divided on how important playoff success is. Put another way, for you, me, and a lot of folks, the playoffs mean a ton.  41 years with no championship or even a pennant is a real long time, and the narrative of the Orioles since 1983 has gotten extremely old. Even the narrative of this winless recent edition of the Os has gotten old. For other fans, the regular season means much more and winning/losing in the playoffs doesn't carry much weight because of the nature of the tournament.  

There is no right or wrong way to be a fan of a team. But I can say that if you told me the next 10 years would involve 9 seasons where we lose 90+ games and 1 season where we win the World Series, I will gladly sign up for that.  I am definitely at that point where that title means everything to me and yes 29 teams go home without the ring each year, but 1 team does get it and that needs to be us. And if we get "lucky" like the Tigers on the path there, then bring it on! If the playoffs are a crapshoot, I am tired of that crapshoot rewarding everyone else.

[glenn__davis]

2 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

I think this is spot on in every way.  But I think the fanbase is somewhat divided on how important playoff success is. Put another way, for you, me, and a lot of folks, the playoffs mean a ton.  41 years with no championship or even a pennant is a real long time, and the narrative of the Orioles since 1983 has gotten extremely old. Even the narrative of this winless recent edition of the Os has gotten old. For other fans, the regular season means much more and winning/losing in the playoffs doesn't carry much weight because of the nature of the tournament.  

There is no right or wrong way to be a fan of a team. But I can say that if you told me the next 10 years would involve 9 seasons where we lose 90+ games and 1 season where we win the World Series, I will gladly sign up for that.  I am definitely at that point where that title means everything to me and yes 29 teams go home without the ring each year, but 1 team does get it and that needs to be us. And if we get "lucky" like the Tigers on the path there, then bring it on! If the playoffs are a crapshoot, I am tired of that crapshoot rewarding everyone else.

I'm not sure that's quite it.  Well, more importantly, I'm not sure that's quite it for me.

I absolutely want to win more in the playoffs.  At this point there's no question that for me I'd live through some lousy seasons if it guaranteed a World Series trophy.  I'd give up a lot for that.

But unfortunately it's the weird paradox, especially in baseball, where the games that mean so much in terms of perception actually mean very little.  

Just look at some the threads posted on this board in recent weeks.

"Do the Orioles need more experience"?  (studies have shown this is not the case)

"Maybe they need a certain type of hitter/approach!" (no, studies have shown that's not it either)

"They must need to build their bullpen a certain way." (nope)

"Well you have to be playing well in September to have a chance in October!"  (very much not true)

"It must be those nice white boys need somebody to be a jerk" (OK, no real way to quantify that one :))

The Astros must have the secret sauce, they went to the ALCS a lot of times in a row!  Oh, they lost in the 1st round this year.

Study after study after study shows that there is no pattern.  There is no "right" way to do it.  There's no way to predict from year to year which teams will or will not go on the run.

If for that crazy 8-9th inning on the day after the season the Mets may not have even made the playoffs.  Now they're the example of guys that can "get it done".

It's not an excuse, and frankly it's not really my opinion.  It's reality.

I do 100% agree with your last 2 sentences.  I don't know what we've done to so displease the baseball gods.

[Sports Guy]

43 minutes ago, SteveA said:

And there are also ways of measuring luck.   Hard hit balls that are right at someone, etc.

Now I haven't done the research, but I suspect that if you look at our 5 playoff losses and evaluated things like hard hit balls, you would not find that we were particularly unlucky.   We weren't hitting line drives all over the park that just happened to be right at people for the most part.   A lot of weak flyouts and groundouts.   So that is less attributable to bad luck as it is to just having shitty at bats.

 

I mean Adley’s attempted hit vs Witt is a good example. Adley hit it harder…but missed for a few feet. That happens.

But even softly hit balls find green…the Os aren’t..others are…like Detroit..like KC vs us.

They win on an IF hit, Westburg’s ball is a homer in 28 of 30 parks. 
 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd trade where they are in the post season compared to where the Orioles are at currently.

Having a great farm system and winning 90+ games two years in a row means absolutely nothing when you can't win a single playoff games. 

NOT A SINGLE PLAYOFF GAME! 

People can talk about the randomness of the playoffs all they want, but this squad with this core has won ZERO playoff games against two wildcard teams that were struggling before they played the Orioles.

It's not like the Orioles didn't win a series. They haven't won a game. They scored an absolutely embarrassing one run in two games this year after getting embarrassed last year against the Rangers. Oh by the way, 4 of the 5 losses were at HOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So say what you want about how the organizations "health" is, the Tigers are one game away from being in the ALCS.

Meanwhile, the Orioles "#1 prospect in all of baseball" hit and fielded like a pitcher and couldn't even start in a playoff game. Having a "great farm system" means nothing if you can't win playoff baseball games. 

I'm here for, like, 75% of the emotion behind this post.

The playoffs are random though and what matters is who gets hot at the right time.  Last year, I'm not sure if the time off helped us go cold...but what I do know is that the Rangers caught fire at the right time.  

This year, we were limping to the finish line and limped right through the KC series.  It obviously wasn't our time.

That said, I am exhausted of the constant circle jerk around here in regard to the "talent."  And how important our "talent" is.  And what great "talent" we have.  So far, the "talent" hasn't translated to anything meaningful in October. Right now, we're looking more like the Blue Jays of a few years ago who apparently had so much "talent" and how they were going to be a force to be reckoned with for years in the AL East.  

So I'll say the "talent" is great to have "on paper."  But if it meant trading our "talent" and our "system" for where the Tigers "actually" are right now, I'm leaning towards making that trade.  Not 100% there, but constantly congratulating each other on our "talent" and our prospect rankings and things that sound really nice but really don't mean much in October is - like I said above - exhausting.

[glenn__davis]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

So I'll say the "talent" is great to have "on paper."  But if it meant trading our "talent" and our "system" for where the Tigers "actually" are right now, I'm leaning towards making that trade.  Not 100% there, but constantly congratulating each other on our "talent" and our prospect rankings and things that sound really nice but really don't mean much in October is - like I said above - exhausting.

I think people are mixing 2 different ideas here.

Listen, if the Tigers luck their way to a WS championship, by all means sign me up for that.  I didn't begrudge TEX winning it last year and I won't begrudge DET winning it this year.  Saying a team is having good luck isn't an insult, it's just the way it is.

But which team do I think has a greater chance of making the playoffs again next year?  Ours, and it's not very close.

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd argue folks are trying awfully hard to downplay teams that play well in the playoffs as "lucky." 

Tell you what, sign me up for some "luck." 

 

Sign me up too.

I realize “luck” is a loaded term. Maybe something like “great timing” or “excellent sequencing” or “finding the holes when it really counts” would sound better. Either way, that’s what’s happening. I’m all ears for a different explanation that demonstrates how the Tigers suddenly became a top 4-8 team in MLB, but I don’t think one exists.

This is a team that led MLB in ERA (2.75) from 8/15 on, outpitching their xFIP (3.83) by over a run. They likely did so by ranking extremely high in each of the major indicators of unsustainable pitching success: .249 BABIP (2nd in MLB), 77.1% strand rate (4th in MLB), 8.9% HR/FB rate (3rd in MLB). 

They actually didn’t really hit that well during that span (15th in wRC+ and 15th in runs), but even those mediocre outcomes were inflated by their good “timing” and “aim.” They had a .315 BABIP (3rd in MLB), despite not hitting the ball hard (21st in HH% and 25th in barrels). They had the aforementioned sky-high whiff (26th) and K (27th) rates. They didn’t really hurt you on the basepaths (27th in SBs, 14th in BsR). What they were pretty good at (surprise, surprise) was hitting with runners on base and in scoring position. We know all too well how sustainable that is.

What they are, really, is akin to the 2012 Orioles. A few genuinely really good players, some up-and-coming talents — and a bunch of nobodies playing out of their minds filling in the gaps. Fun story, good group of guys. They had more playoff success than this current team has had. But no one who knows talent would trade the 2023-24 Orioles for the 2012 team. And the same is true of trading the Orioles roster for the Tigers. Talent is what matters in the long haul, not short term heaters or slumps.

EDIT: Sorry, just circle-jerking over here about the “talent.”

Edited 1 hour ago by e16bball

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd trade where they are in the post season compared to where the Orioles are at currently.

Having a great farm system and winning 90+ games two years in a row means absolutely nothing when you can't win a single playoff games. 

NOT A SINGLE PLAYOFF GAME! 

People can talk about the randomness of the playoffs all they want, but this squad with this core has won ZERO playoff games against two wildcard teams that were struggling before they played the Orioles.

It's not like the Orioles didn't win a series. They haven't won a game. They scored an absolutely embarrassing one run in two games this year after getting embarrassed last year against the Rangers. Oh by the way, 4 of the 5 losses were at HOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So say what you want about how the organizations "health" is, the Tigers are one game away from being in the ALCS.

Meanwhile, the Orioles "#1 prospect in all of baseball" hit and fielded like a pitcher and couldn't even start in a playoff game. Having a "great farm system" means nothing if you can't win playoff baseball games. 

struggling teams? KC  had their Pitching one two lined up for us. Texas ? you might want to check that at the front door, they made a mess of Tampa before us. Do realy believe Tampa was embarrassed having scored one run butgave up 11? It's called closure. Thats what happened to us that last 2 years. So we did not win any games the last 2 years, so what? you would rather lose like we lost in '79?

I do absolutly agree with on JH andthe unspoken Mayo. Nothing short of a disaster.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I think people are mixing 2 different ideas here.

Listen, if the Tigers luck their way to a WS championship, by all means sign me up for that.  I didn't begrudge TEX winning it last year and I won't begrudge DET winning it this year.  Saying a team is having good luck isn't an insult, it's just the way it is.

But which team do I think has a greater chance of making the playoffs again next year?  Ours, and it's not very close.

No, it's not an insult.  I don't take it that way.  

In regard to your final statement...I can see that, too.  I mean, it'll be us and the Yankees and I think Boston can be good again next year, too.  The AL Central between the Tigers, Royals and Guardians will be tough, for sure.  

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

100% correct, except that they don’t even make contact.

Even from 8/15 to the end of the season — their highest point and our lowest — they had a substantially higher whiff rate than the O’s did. DET swung and missed on 26.6% of their swings during that span (26th in the league) and their K rate was 27.1% (27th in the league). Those numbers have remained the same (actually a tick worse) in the playoffs. By comparison, the Orioles were at a 22.9% whiff rate (12th in the league) and a 23.4% K rate (15th in the league).

Folks are trying awfully hard to make the Tigers make sense. They just really don’t. They’re a mediocre team on a remarkable heater right now. Fun story, but no one really wants us to become like the actual Tigers, unless there’s some way to bottle this incredible good fortune they’re having.

It's really simple why the Tigers are really good. Their starting pitching and "Chaos" opening/bulk relievers is elite, their relievers are amazing, they have excellent defense, and they have an offense that, while not scary on paper, has come through when it mattered. 

Also, probably not the best to look at entire year offensive numbers when a number of their key players weren't even playing for a good part of the season. They're a big reason for their resurgence. Parker Meadows only played half the season, Greene missed a few weeks, Carpenter missed ~2.5 months.