After Two Weeks of Pie...

[larrytt]

He also wrote about 5 times that he wasn't positive he'd never be more than a 4th OF, but that he thought that was a fair projection. I thought that once he'd written that a few times, it would be clear to folks that these other sentences were shorthand for his projection of Montanez to save time. My mistake.

BTW, the last sentence is nearly the same as the first two.

That's because he was repeating the same type statements. That's why I jumped in. His more positive postings about Montanez came after I jumped in.

-Larrytt

[Fan4Life]

I think Montanez's success the last 2 years makes it less likely he's still only a 4th OF. It's still likely though. If his defense had been good to stellar last season when he was brought up, he'd likely still be on the roster. I get Larry's point in the big picture and think Lou has done enough to play everyday. But, say has Pie. Who has done more and several years younger. So the issue is that MLB doesn't allow 4 OF to play at the same time. Maybe we can petition to play under softball rules?

[BmoreRaven]

Partially true, though very few AAA players would put up triple crown numbers at AA. But regardless of your age, if you are in AA, and are the best hitter in AA, and in fact are the only person to win the league's triple crown in 27 years, and are arguably the best hitter there in 23 years, then just what does he have to do to prove himself? You can't do better than be the best in the league. And as I've shown, many players don't reach their peak until around age 27 or later. There's no guarantee Montanez will be successful, but he's drastically increased the odds by his hitting at AA, AAA so far this year, and at the major league level last year.

-Larrytt

He has to prove that it wasn't a fluke season and he can continue to do well aganst better competition. So far he hasn't done that for a long enough time. He has played AAA in parts of two seasons and put up below 700 OPS both times. Last season (his AA triple crown season) when he was with the big league club, he didn't exactly light it up. Granted, it is a small sample and he wasn't playing frequently, but he at least showed that there is still may need to show he can hit well against good competition. In addition, Trembley and the coaches seemed to indicate his defense was poor and below average.

He is smoking the ball in AAA when looking at his numbers but it is still a small sample to know for sure whether this is just a hot streak or proof that he may be legitimate with his bat.

[larrytt]

So, Montanez gets a pass for all of his output EXCEPT last year and we're supposed to use avg OPS for these other guys? Yeh, that seems fair

I don't think I'm missing anything. I think you need to study MiL comps to the majors a bit more closely if you think Montanez would have been putting up comparable numbers to these last six guys at the same age if in the majors. It just isn't so. You really should study the links I posted if you believe what you're saying IMO.

Look, you obviously believe that last year's results by Montanez negate all his previous evidence. You've gone so far as saying that he "is a good bet" to be more than a 4th outfielder. If you think those comps are valid, I don't think we're ever going to see eye-to-eye. And to be quite honest, I can't think of a single projection system that would even marginally agree with what you're trying to sell here. Not a single one.

I hope Montanez does turn out to be a late bloomer who becomes a starter for this team. I really do. But I think your assertion that it is likely (or even money even) is way over the top and just not so.

We're going to have to disagree on much of this. Remember, all those links are mostly to stars or players who are better than 4th outfielders, and we're arguing over whether he's favored to be better than a 4th outfielder! We're looking at a unique situation - a 27-year-old who suddenly becomes the best hitter in the AA league, arguably the best hitter there in 33 years, the last time someone there won a triple crown - but you are comparing it to conventional paths to the majors, which simply aren't comparable.

-Larrytt

[larrytt]

So, Montanez gets a pass for all of his output EXCEPT last year and we're supposed to use avg OPS for these other guys? Yeh, that seems fair

In some cases, yes. When Mora began hitting well after age 30, they went by how he WAS hitting, not how he'd been hitting in the many years leading up to that. The same is true of the other late bloomers I cited, who were judged on their improved hitting, not the years that led up to it. In this rather unique case, he didn't just start hitting; he started tearing the ball off the cover to a .986 OPS and the first triple crown in 33 years in the league. That's an outlier, and you can't use conventional examples to project his path.

-Larrytt

[Mackus]

In some cases, yes. When Mora began hitting well after age 30, they went by how he WAS hitting, not how he'd been hitting in the many years leading up to that. The same is true of the other late bloomers I cited, who were judged on their improved hitting, not the years that led up to it. In this rather unique case, he didn't just start hitting; he started tearing the ball off the cover to a .986 OPS and the first triple crown in 33 years in the league. That's an outlier, and you can't use conventional examples to project his path.

-Larrytt

And when Mora starting killing the ball, he did it at the MLB level. If he had started putting up super high numbers in AA as a 30 y/o, nobody would have cared, and rightly so.

Montanez' season last year put him back on the map in terms of having an MLB future, but it doesn't put him back on the map in terms of being a guy you expect to be an above average player. He's gonna have to repeat that (not win the TC, but be good) at AAA before people really take him seriously.

Its like comparing a guys numbers at a great baseball college to a guy from D-III.

[olehippi]

I find myself actually feeling some pity towards Pie. I have to believe he is a much better player than what we have seen in the last two weeks, but it's become obvious that he is lost, both in the field and at the plate. Maybe it's the result of the pressure -- learning a new position and being thrust into a "do it now or else" situation has to be tough on the psyche. Or maybe it's that Pie is just another player that's just not quite good enough to cut it at the ML level.

The natives are growing restless. And although the Orioles have declared their willingness to give Pie every opportunity to win the position, I think even they must realize the immense pressure on him.....and perhaps more importantly, see the deficiencies in his game.

Behind Pie at Norfolk we have two players, Montanez and Reimold, who are knocking the cover off the ball and who also deserve a shot to prove themselves worthy. Montanez already has to some extent. One, and maybe both if Freel is released, would definitely strengthen the offensive side of the Orioles bench.......and IMO, wouldn't weaken it significantly defensively

At this point, I believe if Pie is waived, that he might clear waivers because he has no options left. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see a ML team out there who would be willing to claim him and keep him at the ML level.

[BmoreRaven]

We're going to have to disagree on much of this. Remember, all those links are mostly to stars or players who are better than 4th outfielders, and we're arguing over whether he's favored to be better than a 4th outfielder! We're looking at a unique situation - a 27-year-old who suddenly becomes the best hitter in the AA league, arguably the best hitter there in 33 years, the last time someone there won a triple crown - but you are comparing it to conventional paths to the majors, which simply aren't comparable.

-Larrytt

The triple crown is also an award that factors in the other players in the league. There are other players that have put up great seasons in AA before having his breakout performance.

In 1998 for Bowie, Calvin Pickering had 488 ABs in AA Bowie. He hit .309 avg/.434 OBP/.566 SLG/ 1000 OPS. He hit 31 homers with 114 RBIs.

I think those numbers compare favorably to Montanez's triple crown season and is a better season than Lou's. He also did it at a younger age and that was the first time he was in AA. Montanez has hit in 3 previous stints in AA with less success.

I know there may be many factors why Pickering did not do well in the majors such as being given more time in the majors but he was an easy example because he was in the O's system. This example at least shows that there are guys that have had better AA seasons without winning the triple crown and did not necessarily make it in the majors as even average players. I'm sure there may be other examples of players in other organizations.

[larrytt]

And when Mora starting killing the ball, he did it at the MLB level. If he had started putting up super high numbers in AA as a 30 y/o, nobody would have cared, and rightly so.

But when Montanez did it at a 27-year-old, people did notice, which is why he was in the majors for 112 AB last year (and hit pretty well), and why he's now in AAA. The question we disagree on is whether he now projects as anything better than a 4th outfielder, which is why I jumped into this discussion.

-Larrytt

[BmoreRaven]

But when Montanez did it at a 27-year-old, people did notice, which is why he was in the majors for 112 AB last year (and hit pretty well), and why he's now in AAA. The question we disagree on is whether he now projects as anything better than a 4th outfielder, which is why I jumped into this discussion.

-Larrytt

He had a 762 OPS. Granted that is in a small sample, but it is okay hitting stat. You also have to factor that the coaches, particularly Trembley has said his defense in OF was below average to poor.

I think that still projects him to being a 4th outfielder. He could be a late bloomer and surpass that projection but based on his past, it is much more likely he is a 4th outfielder than beyond that.

[larrytt]

The triple crown is also an award that factors in the other players in the league. There are other players that have put up great seasons in AA before having his breakout performance.

In 1998 for Bowie, Calvin Pickering had 488 ABs in AA Bowie. He hit .309 avg/.434 OBP/.566 SLG/ 1000 OPS. He hit 31 homers with 114 RBIs.

I think those numbers compare favorably to Montanez's triple crown season and is a better season than Lou's. He also did it at a younger age and that was the first time he was in AA. Montanez has hit in 3 previous stints in AA with less success.

I know there may be many factors why Pickering did not do well in the majors such as being given more time in the majors but he was an easy example because he was in the O's system. This example at least shows that there are guys that have had better AA seasons without winning the triple crown and did not necessarily make it in the majors as even average players. I'm sure there may be other examples of players in other organizations.

You can always find someone who had a better year but didn't do well in the majors. You can also find many who didn't do as well but went on to have nice major league careers. It's all a matter of averages. The ones who have .986 OPS at AA, and do well in their first 112 AB in the majors, tend to do better than those who do worse. Age matters, but there's a point where a player can't do better than be the best in the league, and then it's time to give that person a shot at a higher level, as is now happening with Montanez. So far, he's raking it at AAA as well. Does all this project better than a 4th outfielder, as I've argued? We'll see.

-Larrytt

[larrytt]

He had a 762 OPS. Granted that is in a small sample, but it is okay hitting stat. You also have to factor that the coaches, particularly Trembley has said his defense in OF was below average to poor.

I think that still projects him to being a 4th outfielder. He could be a late bloomer and surpass that projection but based on his past, it is much more likely he is a 4th outfielder than beyond that.

How many major league hitters do better than a .762 OPS in their first 112 AB? Very few, including Markakis, Jones, and most of the others I cited in a recent posting. We won't know how he'll do in a larger sampling until he's given the chance, which still may be iffy because of Pie and Reinold. But I agree it's his defense that's most likely to hold him back, not his hitting. However, I've heard it's improved.

-Larrytt

[larrytt]

I would love to see the statistics textbooks that describes how you take an "outlier" and use it, rather than the normative stats that standard deviation doesn't throw out, to predict the future. I've taken A LOT of statistics courses in my life (I'm a black belt) and I've never heard of this thing which you speak about. Can you point me to this theory / concept?

"Outliers" in the context I'm using it is a general concept, not a specific math term. As to statistics, I have a bachelor's in math, and if I hadn't gotten sidetracked by a professional coaching career (in a different sport), and later a writing career, I would have become a math professor. (I was going to study for my Ph.D at Univ. of NC under Dr. Harold Reiter, who I co-wrote a paper with in a math journal as an undergraduate.)

-Larrytt

[OrioleWay27]

I just hope all the Pie bashers are consistent. If Reimold comes up, struggles at the plate, and has some mental errors in left, I really hope you guys only give him 13 days before you pass judgment on him.

I will give him more leeway than Pie. The reason is that Pie has failed to hit major league pitching on multiple occasions. He was hyped as a prospect and then his own team gave up on him. His results, while not as an everyday player, show that he can't hit major league pitching. He has done nothing but re-affirm this with his spring training and regular season at bats this season.

I will give Reimold more time to adjust to major league pitching than Pie because he has truly never faced it during the regular season. Furthermore, not only did Reimold hit major league pitching better than Pie did in spring training (short term results favoring Reimold), but Pie has already struggled against ML pitching in the past (long term history contributing to my low tolerance for mistakes and poor performance with Pie).

At some point "tools" and "potential" have to be set aside in favor of results. Pie has been terrible in his time with the Orioles, and bad in his major league time with the Cubs. Reimold offers some potential as well - something which has won Pie lots of support on this board - but more importantly, Reimold's play has actually warranted a promotion. The team also has Montanez, who has done nothing but produce in the minors, as well as limited at bats in the majors. Merit should matter at some point, and winning is the bottom line. Letting go of Pie makes sense if this team is intent on actually winning games.

I would have no problem if Pie realizes his potential with another team. Productive OF's are easy to come by, but the runs Pie has cost us on both sides of the ball are potentially hurting the team in the win column, and it's unacceptable.

[Old#5fan]

I will give him more leeway than Pie. The reason is that Pie has failed to hit major league pitching on multiple occasions. He was hyped as a prospect and then his own team gave up on him. His results, while not as an everyday player, show that he can't hit major league pitching. He has done nothing but re-affirm this with his spring training and regular season at bats this season.

I will give Reimold more time to adjust to major league pitching than Pie because he has truly never faced it during the regular season. Furthermore, not only did Reimold hit major league pitching better than Pie did in spring training (short term results favoring Reimold), but Pie has already struggled against ML pitching in the past (long term history contributing to my low tolerance for mistakes and poor performance with Pie).

At some point "tools" and "potential" have to be set aside in favor of results. Pie has been terrible in his time with the Orioles, and bad in his major league time with the Cubs. Reimold offers some potential as well - something which has won Pie lots of support on this board - but more importantly, Reimold's play has actually warranted a promotion. The team also has Montanez, who has done nothing but produce in the minors, as well as limited at bats in the majors. Merit should matter at some point, and winning is the bottom line. Letting go of Pie makes sense if this team is intent on actually winning games.

I would have no problem if Pie realizes his potential with another team. Productive OF's are easy to come by, but the runs Pie has cost us on both sides of the ball are potentially hurting the team in the win column, and it's unacceptable.

Plus, it is a proven fact that you cannot "learn" how to play at position at the major league level. Obviously, Pie has not been groomed or polished nearly enough to be an adequate defensive major league outfielder, much less a good one.