The Top 54 Draft Picks For 2009

[Greg Pappas]

Allstar1579 and I are will provide brief scouting reports on the top fifty-four players available in this year's draft, as we were going to stop at fifty, but with the O's selecting 54th overall, well... you get the picture. We just have too little time this year to provide better. We would normally offer a more in-depth analysis at MLB-Draft.com, but again, we'll do our best. These reviews are based upon varied reports from leading amateur scouting websites, and used to form a "collective" view. This season has been difficult to get consensus after the top two, but we hope you find this helpful.

We'll update this OP as we add more players, adjusting their ranking as deemed necessary as we near the June 9th draft.

The 'notes/reports' on the players will not necessarily be in order... so look through both my and Allstar's posts to find them. Players who have been marked in bold have a report somewhere below.

*=Left-handed, #=Switch-hitter

UPDATED: 6/7/09

1 … Stephen Strasburg, RHSP, 6' 5-220, San Diego State, DOB-7/20/88 (20)

2 … *Dustin Ackley, CF/1B, 6' 1-185, UNC, DOB-2/26/88 (21)

3 … *Tyler Matzek, LHSP, 6' 3-195, HS (CA), DOB-10/19/90 (18)

4 … Aaron Crow, RHSP, 6' 2-205, Fort Worth Cats, DOB- 11/11/86 (22)

5 … Donovan Tate, CF, 6' 3-210, HS (GA), DOB- 9/27/90 (18)

6 … Jacob Turner, RHSP, 6' 5-210, HS (MO), DOB- 5/21/91 (18)

7 … *Matt Purke, LHSP, 6' 3-180, HS (TX), DOB- 7/17/90 (18)

8 … Shelby Miller, RHSP, 6' 3-195, HS (TX), DOB- 10/10/90 (18)

9 … Zack Wheeler, RHSP, 6' 4-175, HS (GA), DOB- 5/30/90 (19)

10 … Grant Green, SS, 6' 3-185, USC, DOB- 9/27/87 (21)

11 … #Bobby Borchering, 1B/3B, 6' 4-200, HS (FL), 8/26/90 (18)

12 … Mike Leake, RHSP, 6' 0-180, Arizona St., DOB- 11/12/87 (21)

13 … Alex White, RHSP, 6' 3-200, UNC, DOB- 8/29/88 (20)

14 … Tanner Scheppers, RHSP, 6' 4-200, St.Paul Saints, DOB- 1/17/87 (22)

15 … Chad Jenkins, RHSP, 6’ 4-225, Kennesaw St., DOB- 3/12/88 (21)

16 … *Tim Wheeler, CF, 6’ 4-205, Sacremento State, DOB- 1/11/88 (21)

17 … *Rex Brothers, LHSP, 6’ 1-205, Lipscomb, DOB- 12/18/87 (21)

18 … Kyle Gibson, RHSP, 6' 6-200, Missouri, DOB- 10/23/87 (21)

19 … Eric Arnett, RHSP, 6’ 5-225, Indiana, DOB- 1/25/88 (21)

20 … *Everett Williams, CF, 5’ 10-195, HS (TX) , DOB- 10/1/90 (18)

21 … Mike Trout, CF, 6’ 1-190, HS (NJ), DOB- 8/7/91 (17)

22 … Rich Poythress, 1B, 6’ 4-245, Georgia, DOB- 8/11/88 (20)

23 … *Andy Oliver, LHSP, 6’ 3-212, Oklahoma St., DOB- 12/3/87 (21)

24 … Max Stassi, C, 5’ 10-205, HS (CA), DOB- 3/15/91 (18)

25 … *Chad James, LHSP, 6’ 4-195, HS (OK), DOB- 1/23/91 (18)

26 … Tony Sanchez, C, 6’ 1-220, Boston College, DOB- 5/20/88 (21)

27 … Matt Davidson, 3B, 6' 3-215, HS (CA), DOB- 8/26/90 (18)

28 … Garrett Gould, RHSP, 6’ 3-195, HS (KS), DOB- 7/20/91 (17)

29 … *Jared Mitchell, OF, 6' 0-192, LSU, DOB- 10/13/88 (20)

30 … *Mike Minor, LHSP, 6’ 4-195, Vanderbilt, DOB- 12/26/87 (21)

31 … Drew Storen, RHRP, 6' 2-180, Stanford, DOB- 8/11/87 (21)

32 … A.J. Pollock, CF, 6’ 1-200, Notre Dame, DOB- 12/5/87 (21)

33 … *Tyler Skaggs, LHSP, 6' 5-185, HS (CA), DOB- 7/13/91 (17)

34 … Wil Myers, C, 6' 3-185, HS (NC), DOB- 12/10/90 (18)

35 … Sam Dyson, RHRP, 6’ 2-195, South Carolina, DOB- 5/7/88 (21)

36 … Matt Hobgood, RHSP, 6' 4-245, HS (CA), DOB- 8/3/90 (18)

37 … *LeVon Washington, CF, 5' 10-170, HS (FL), DOB- 7/26/91 (17)

38 … *James Paxton, LHSP, 6’ 4-215, Kentucky, DOB- 11/6/88 (20)

39 … #Nick Franklin, SS, 6' 1-180, HS (FL), DOB- 3/2/91 (18)

40 … Kyle Heckathorn, RHRP, 6' 6-240, Kennesaw St., DOB- 6/17/88 (21)

41 … *Brett Jackson, CF, 6' 2-210, California, DOB- 8/2/88 (20)

42 … Zack Von Rosenberg, RHSP, 6' 5-200, HS (LA), DOB- 9/24/90 (18)

43 … *Jeff Malm, 1B, 6' 2-225, HS (NV), DOB- 10/31/90 (18)

44 … Tommy Joseph, C/1B, 6' 1-210, HS (AZ), DOB- 7/16/91 (17)

45 … Jiovanni Mier, SS, 6' 2-175, HS (CA), DOB- 8/26/90 (18)

46 … *Reymond Fuentes, CF, 6' 0-160, HS (PR), DOB- 2/12/91 (18)

47 … *Slade Heathcott, OF, 6' 1-190, HS (AR), DOB- 9/28/90 (18)

48 … #Mychal Givens, RHSP/SS, 6' 2-185, HS (FL), DOB- 5/13/90 (19)

49 … *Marc Krauss, OF/1B, 6' 3-235, Ohio U., DOB- 10/5/87 (21)

50 … Todd Glaesman, OF. 6' 4-205, HS (TX), 10/24/90 (18)

51 … Jake Marisnick, OF, 6' 4-200, HS (CA), DOB- 3/30/91 (18)

52 … Madison Younginer, RHSP, 6' 4-195, HS (SC), DOB- 11/03/90 (18)

53 … Brody Colvin, RHSP, 6' 3-195, HS (LA) DOB- 8/14/90 (18)

54 … Keyvius Sampson, RHP, 6' 1-180, HS (FL), DOB- 1/6/91 (18)

Stephen Strasburg, RHSP, 6' 5-220, San Diego State, DOB-7/20/88 (20)

Strasburg is the best pitching prospect in the history of the draft. Period. The right-hander consistently hits triple digits on the radar gun and maintains it through the late innings, and has thoroughly dominated the college competition this season. He should be able to make the jump directly to the majors, and as long as he remains healthy, he could become an all-star ace starter.

*Dustin Ackley, CF/1B, 6' 1-185, UNC, DOB-2/26/88 (21)

Offensive talent just oozes from the lefty-swinging Ackley. Ackley is among the best hitting prospects in years and garners chat among scouts as a future batting champion. His position is in question, as he profiles as a CF'er, but an arm injury has had him manning 1B most often. Ackley possesses very good speed, and with the power he's shown this year, he profiles as a true offensive force. Think .330+ BA / 20-25 HR / 30+ SB's.

Donovan Tate, CF, 6' 3-210, HS (GA), DOB- 9/27/90 (18)

Tate is a supreme 5-tool talent, and while some have concerns about his ability to hit good pitching, many believe he's the top prep position player in this draft, and will make the required adjustments. The son of former UG star and NFL running back Lars Tate has the total package of skills, including plus/plus speed, good range and an above average arm in CF. He's a good and dangerous hitter with easy power and has scouts drooling over his potential.

*Tyler Matzek, LHSP, 6' 3-195, HS (CA), DOB-10/19/90 (18)

Matzek is perhaps the most polished high school pitcher in the draft, and illicits comparisons to our own Brian Matusz. Matzek has a good pitchers frame and may add a tick more velocity to his low 90's fastball. He has the ceiling of a four-pitch front of the rotation starter, with good command and poise. While Jacob Turner, Shelby Miller and others throw harder and may have a bit more upside, none are clearly better prospects than Matzek.

Grant Green, SS, 6' 3-185, USC, DOB- 9/27/87 (21)

Someone had to be fifth... Green has tools that scouts love, and is a potential 5-tool talent. He is a good hitter that had shown above average wood-bat power, but confounded scouts with just 4 HR's this year. Green did fight through a few minor injuries early and had a sore shoulder at the end of his Cape Cod season (in which he was the league's MVP). His defensive is shaky, but his arm and range are good and he should stick at SS. If one buys into his Cape Cod efforts more so that his uneven play this college season, he profiles as a solid defender at short with good speed and an above average bat at a prime position.

[WebLink21]

5. Grant Green, SS, 6' 3-185, USC, DOB- 9/27/87 (21)

Someone had to be fifth... Green has tools that scouts love, and is a potential 5-tool talent. He is a good hitter that had shown above average wood-bat power, but confounded scouts with just 3 HR's this year. Green did fight through a few minor injuries early and had a sore shoulder at the end of his Cape Cod season (in which he was the league's MVP). His defensive is shaky, but his arm and range are good and he should stick at SS. If one buys into his Cape Cod efforts more so that his uneven play this college season, he profiles as a solid defender at short with good speed and an above average bat at a prime position.

Greg, I think Green may have 4 HR's this year.

[Greg Pappas]

Greg, I think Green may have 4 HR's this year.

Thank ye.

[Moose Milligan]

Shaky defense at SS, huh? Remember how the OH liked the last good hitting/questionable fielding SS we had?

[Greg Pappas]

Shaky defense at SS, huh? Remember how the OH liked the last good hitting/questionable fielding SS we had?

That's a fair comment, although Green's issues are not range related. Green is certainly a risk...

[allstar1579]

Kyle Gibson RHSP, 6' 6-200, Missouri, DOB- 10/23/87 (21)

Solid, yet unspectacular pretty much sums up Gibson. Taking the reins from Crow, he has put up very solid numbers this year at Mizzou 10-3, 3.47era, 123k 18bb in 98.2 innings. Gibson has a good fastball, with a plus slider he uses as an out-pitch, and a change that is below average but coming around. Has good command, and average life on the fastball which sits around 90-92, but spots it well on both sides of the plate. Part of Gibson’s appeal is his large frame which could easily hold a few more pounds of muscle which may increase his velocity a bit, considered about as safe of a pick as you can get for a pitcher.

Tanner Scheppers, RHSP, 6' 4-200, St.Paul Saints, DOB- 1/17/87 (22)

You know the story, hot shot pitching prospect gets hurt, team takes a flier in the 2nd round on a top-10 pick, doesn’t sign him, goes to the Indy leagues to prove he’s healthy and comes back to be a top-10 pick all over again. Well, questions abound, mostly about that shoulder of his, no one knows what the official injury was, conflicting stories last year coupled with not releasing medical reports this year have created more questions than answered, and while he is looking healthy and hitting 96mph regularly, do you take high risk/high reward? The O’s drafted him out of high school in 2006 and didn’t sign him, the Pirates took him last year in the 2nd and didn’t sign him,(and were denied permission to draft him again) now the two teams are picking 4th and 5th and I’m sure they have not forgotten the tools this kid has.

Aaron Crow, RHSP, 6' 2-205, Fort Worth Cats, DOB- 11/11/86 (22)

Talked about thoroughly last season as one of the top two pitching prospects in a hitter-rich first round, Crow famously did not sign with the Nats and is now pitching for the Ft. Worth Cats in the Indy leagues. Crow still has a bit of a hiccup in his delivery which is cause for injury concern, however he has been healthy and pitching the way he always has, including picking up a bit more of a “swagger” than he had previously. Hitting 93-94 and dialing up to 98 when he needs to with the same out-pitch slider he showed at Mizzou, Crow is ready to go in the top 10, should be an easy sign after the mess last year.

Zack Wheeler, RHSP, 6' 4-175, HS (GA), DOB- 5/30/90 (19)

As far as projectable HS pitchers go, this kid is what you look for. He has plenty of room for added bulk which could add a few mph to his 90-93 fastball (he can hit 95), has good sink on the ball, and throws from a ¾ arm slot that helps against righties. His curve is a plus pitch, but like many HS pitchers does not throw it enough, while his change is a work in progress and should be an average pitch. Where each of the HS pitchers have their pros and cons, Wheeler is no different, but with a bit more consistency on the curve, and command, he could be a real steal for someone this year.

Shelby Miller, RHSP, 6’3-195, Brownwood (TX) HS, DOB- 10/10/90 (18)

Yet another in the long line of Texas HS power pitchers, Miller has a verbal agreement to Texas A&M but has recently said he doesn’t care who takes him or when, he just wants to get started on his career. Miller sits comfortably around 93-96 and can reach 98 when he wants to. He’s got the makings of a plus curve, but underutilizes it due to the natural sink he gets on his fastball, which is a very heavy pitch that pushes back bats. Doesn’t have a change up so to speak, which is what keeps him towards the end of the top 10 in the rankings here.

[Pruke]

Greg - just out of curiosity, which top pitching prospect is the 'least' risk in terms of an injury?

(Great posts!)

[Greg Pappas]

Greg - just out of curiosity, which top pitching prospect is the 'least' risk in terms of an injury?

(Great posts!)

That's an interesting question and rather difficult to surmise with any certainty... but I'll take a shot.

Kyle Gibson, then Tyler Matzek.

Gibson is about as safe as it gets, with sound mechanics and no real injury history or overuse.

Matzek has fairly clean mechanics and a healthy history... however, younger pitchers have a few years to avoid injuries just to get to the collegians age. Edge? Gibson.

Matzek would place second in my view, but may have more upside than Gibson.

Perhaps Stotle, Lier, etc... can chime in with a more specific mechanic analysis.

[QBsILLEST1]

That's an interesting question and rather difficult to surmise with any certainty... but I'll take a shot.

Kyle Gibson, then Tyler Matzek.

Gibson is about as safe as it gets, with sound mechanics and no real injury history or overuse.

Matzek has fairly clean mechanics and a healthy history... however, younger pitchers have a few years to avoid injuries just to get to the collegians age. Edge? Gibson.

Matzek would place second in my view, but may have more upside than Gibson.

Perhaps Stotle, Lier, etc... can chime in with a more specific mechanic analysis.

Those are the 2 which I have heard had the cleanest mechanics. The biggest knock I have heard on Matzek is that he lands on a stiff front leg sometimes, but not all the time-Just like what we heard about Matusz last year. This hiccup though is not very serious and very fixable, he is definately the 2nd safest injury-wise pitcher in the top 10. If I remember right there were a few college guys in the 10-20 range who had clean mechanics as well.....

[Greg Pappas]

Jacob Turner, RHSP, 6' 5-210, HS (MO), DOB- 5/21/91 (18)

High School phenom Turner is a highly-touted Scott Boras client, and looking for big money by all accounts. Turner is another in a series of outstanding Missouri prep hurlers and has the tools of a front-of-the-rotation starter. He uses a nearly ideal pitching (6’ 5-210) frame and repeatable delivery to fire low to mid 90’s fastballs... said to reach 98. Turner has shown a solid curve and a potential above average change as well… and just turned 18. When all is said and done, Turner may looked back upon as the best HS arm from this draft.

Alex White, RHSP, 6' 3-200, UNC, DOB- 8/29/88 (20)

White has been viewed as the odds-on favorite to go #2 overall since the end of the ’08 season…but inconsistent command of his three plus pitches has scouts a bit concerned as the draft approached. His mechanics have been somewhat out-of-whack, but many believe with pro coaching he will regain consistency of a hard 96mph FB, nasty split-fingered FB, and slider. Some scouts like him better as a closer… as he excelled working out of the bullpen during the CWS. White is a solid athlete, and tough competitor with the ceiling of a solid staff anchor.

Mike Leake, RHSP, 6' 0-180, Arizona St., DOB- 11/12/87 (21)

While college baseball’s second most dominant starter this season, Leake is a far different pitcher than Stephen Strasburg. Leake has been simply brilliant, utilizing great command of an average FB that sits 89-91 and can touch 94, an above-average cutter and slider, and an oft-times plus change. A bulldog mentality belies his smallish frame (6’-180), but his athleticism, quality stuff and expert ability to hit his spots (think Greg Maddux) foreshadow a good ML starter.

*Matt Purke, LHSP, 6' 3-180, HS (TX), DOB- 7/17/90 (18)

Purke has not been quite as dominant this season as expected, but still, not much separates him from his fellow top HS arms. Purke features a low-90’s FB that reaches mid-90’s and already shows what is perhaps the best slider in the prep class. Purke has great makeup and serious upside, but his delivery has more effort than is preferred and his signability has also come into question. While considered a bit more risky than some of his contemporaries from this class, there are those that believe Purke will be the best of the prep bunch.

*Rex Brothers, LHSP, 6’ 1-205, Lipscomb, DOB- 12/18/87 (21)

While Vanderbilt lefty Mike Minor came into the season as the state of Tennessee’s top pitcher (and likely 1st rounder), it has been the unheralded Mr. Brothers from Lipscomb that has supplanted him in most scouts eyes. Brothers’ body and stuff has drawn comps to former ML closer Randy Myers, as he features two plus offerings in a mid-90’s FB that can reach 97, and a down-right filthy slider, when it’s on. Some see him as a great reliever, but he has maintained his velocity well into the latter innings. If he can develop a third offering, he may become a very good ML starter or may just shine in a ML pen.

[WebLink21]

Great work guys!

[allstar1579]

Great work guys!

Thanks! I'll have 16-20 either tonight or tomorrow morning, depending on when the kid goes to sleep

[Duke2010]

I'm interested to see if guys like Austin Maddox, Jeff Malm, Andrew Susac, Nick Franklin, David Renfroe, and Ian Krol make your list, and where they would rank. I'm a fan of some of the high school talents after the first round, and I would love to have a chance at getting Maddox and Malm in rounds 2 and 3 (I love young power bats, even though Maddox may have questions defensively at C.) Perhaps Ian Krol will also fall in the 3-5 range due to his suspension and college commitment...can't wait for the 9th!

[LookinUp]

But seriously, what are the Rex brother's first names, and how are they rated the same?

[allstar1579]

*Tim Wheeler, CF, 6’ 4-205, Sacremento State, DOB- 1/11/88 (21)

Wheeler is a big, fast CF with an average arm, good defense and tons of speed. He is great on the bases and should be a big time base stealer in the pros. Wheeler’s big drawback is his lack of power. Scouts hope he will add a bit more to his frame and develop a little more pop as a 3-HR game earlier this year showed potential for. Looks like a prototypical lead-off hitter.

Eric Arnett, RHSP, 6’ 5-225, Indiana, DOB- 1/25/88 (21)

Arnett is a big kid who has been a late riser up many draft boards. He added a few mph to his fastball this past season which now sits 91-93 and can touch 96. His slider has plus potential if he can stay on top of it, but has been generally inconsistent with that and throwing strikes. He is not afraid to pitch to contact and induce ground balls, and if he can work out his problems with the change up he used to throw, he could be a real workhorse.

*James Paxton, LHSP, 6’ 4-215, Kentucky, DOB- 11/6/88 (20)

Another late riser, Paxton is a big strong kid with a lively fastball that has been seen anywhere from 92-98. His slider is sharp and hard and also seen as a potential plus pitch, while his changeup exists but hasn’t been seen very often. Paxton’s largest problem is his control, which is average and is worse when throwing across his body to the 3B side of the plate. If a team feels like he can improve a 3rd pitch and remain a starter, he could move up a few draft boards, however if not, he could have a real future as a power closer.

Rich Poythress, 1B, 6’ 4-245, Georgia, DOB- 8/11/88 (20)

Every year there are a few guys that only have one tool, but when that tool is plus-plus raw power, it can still get you drafted in the first round. Poythress has fairly slow bat speed, no running speed to speak of, and is adequate at best defensively, but can hit it out of any part of the park. Poythress might be best suited as a DH for some American League team, but there are questions about how his bat speed will play at advanced levels that will have to be answered first. Putting up great numbers in the SEC should be enough to get him drafted, but the real adventure will start when he sees some real advanced pitching. Could he be the next Ryan Howard or the next Matt Lacroy?

#Bobby Borchering, 1B, 6' 4-200, HS (FL), 8/26/90 (18)

Borchering looks like a bit of a tweener. He’s got horrible range and is a little awkward defensively at third, so a move to first base is fairly likely, what is going to carry him is going to be his bat. He is a switch hitter with two different swings from each side of the plate and has pop from both sides. He has enough pop to play at third, but there is a question of if he has enough pop to play at 1B where some might want a little more power. The bat plays, and the plus-plus bat speed helps that, a lot the question is just going to be what position he is going to end up. He has drawn comparisons to Chipper Jones.