BA's 2009 Mock Draft (v2.0)

[jamesenoch]

Where do you get 3 plus pitches for Leake? I don't have him having any plus pitches. He's close to plus with his change, but it's not really there either. His control is amazing, but his curve is average, his slider is above average but not plus and his fastball sits around 91-92.

Scouting report from BA :

Leake pounds the strike zone with a fastball that sits 88-92 mph. He can dial it up to 94, but prefers to work at lower speeds to get more movement. Throwing from a lower three-quarters arm slot, he gets a lot of armside run and sink on his fastball that results in a lot of groundballs. He also throws a changeup, slider and cutter that grade out as above-average offerings. Leake is a smart pitcher with a bulldog mentality on the mound.

[Stotle]

Excerpt from scouting report from CD:

Nick's Notes (draft at 1:5?):

While Leake lacks true front-end projection or plus stuff, he has produced about as well in 2009 as any college pitcher not named Strasburg. He is in the top 5 among Division I pitchers in wins (1st - 13), Strike Outs (5th - 116) and hits allowed per 9 IP (5th – 5.23). His ERA of 1.35 is second only to Strasburg’s 1.34. Still, he’s a bit of a reach at 1:5. His offerings are all Major League average pitches right now, though none constitute a true put-away pitch. His command, poise and approach should help him provide good mid-rotation value for someone in the second-half of the first round, though he could go as early as 1:10 to Washington if they are looking for an easier sign. As an aside, Coach Murphy has done nothing but gush about Leake as a person and a player, noting he may be the best all around athlete on the team. In a television interview, he mused that Leake could be the team’s best shortstop if they didn’t have to worry about risking his health by running him out there every day. He’s one of the best stories in the 2009 season and should be a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award.

Grading Out (as of date written):

Motion - 60

Fastball - 50

Curveball - 50/55

Change-up - 50

Slider - 50

Command - 55/60

[section18]

We have plenty of pitchers. Where are we going put all of them. Guthrie, Bergesen, Berkin, Hill, Hernandez for now. If Hill falters Uehara will take his spot. I like Hill and think he can win for the Orioles but if he fails we have Uehara waiting to come back. Kojji will eventually end up in the pen unless he can prove he has the ability to stretch it out and go 7 or 8 innings in a game. If Guthrie gets traded we will probably bring up Patton or Tillman. We still have Arrieta and Matusz. 5 starter spots that's it.

We need to start loading up with top hitters. I still think we could get either Green or Ackley if Seattle goes for a pitcher which is being talked about. I think Crow makes the most sense for them as he can start in 2010 for them. The Padres need everyting and supposedly like Green for SS and several of the pitchers. The Pirates cannot afford to deal with Boras.

If Green and Ackley are there who do you take? I like Green but I think you have to go with the best hitter. Either one would be super.

[jcroemer]

We have plenty of pitchers. Where are we going put all of them. Guthrie, Bergesen, Berkin, Hill, Hernandez for now. If Hill falters Uehara will take his spot. I like Hill and think he can win for the Orioles but if he fails we have Uehara waiting to come back. Kojji will eventually end up in the pen unless he can prove he has the ability to stretch it out and go 7 or 8 innings in a game. If Guthrie gets traded we will probably bring up Patton or Tillman. We still have Arrieta and Matusz. 5 starter spots that's it.

We need to start loading up with top hitters. I still think we could get either Green or Ackley if Seattle goes for a pitcher which is being talked about. I think Crow makes the most sense for them as he can start in 2010 for them. The Padres need everyting and supposedly like Green for SS and several of the pitchers. The Pirates cannot afford to deal with Boras.

If Green and Ackley are there who do you take? I like Green but I think you have to go with the best hitter. Either one would be super.

Grow arms, buy bats.

[allstar1579]

Best player available, regardless of position/pitcher.

[QBsILLEST1]

We have plenty of pitchers. Where are we going put all of them. Guthrie, Bergesen, Berkin, Hill, Hernandez for now. If Hill falters Uehara will take his spot. I like Hill and think he can win for the Orioles but if he fails we have Uehara waiting to come back. Kojji will eventually end up in the pen unless he can prove he has the ability to stretch it out and go 7 or 8 innings in a game. If Guthrie gets traded we will probably bring up Patton or Tillman. We still have Arrieta and Matusz. 5 starter spots that's it.

We need to start loading up with top hitters. I still think we could get either Green or Ackley if Seattle goes for a pitcher which is being talked about. I think Crow makes the most sense for them as he can start in 2010 for them. The Padres need everyting and supposedly like Green for SS and several of the pitchers. The Pirates cannot afford to deal with Boras.

If Green and Ackley are there who do you take? I like Green but I think you have to go with the best hitter. Either one would be super.

The problem is is that there are not going to be any really good "top" hitters available in the draft at 1:5. Atleast none that are worth the 5th pick in this years draft, take BPA which in this case will be an arm unless the extremely unlikely happens and Ackley falls to us.

If we take Green, then IMO we are taking positional need too much into value, but JJ Im sure would have his own reasoning for choosing Green over some of the other arms if he does so....Green is a good player, and a good hitter, I am just not convinced he is worth more at 1:5 then Crow, Matzek, Scheppers, Wheeler, Purke, or even Turner.....

And if Green and Ackley are there at 1:5, then its no question, consensus Ackley.......I would think.....

[Obando]

Personally, I hope the O's take one of the following 3 pitchers: Gibson, Matzek, or Wheeler. From everything I've read about these guys and studying the statistics, they are 3 of the most well-rounded pitchers that still have projectability. I like when a pitcher already has a good feel for pitching in high school but still has room to grow and improve. The guys who usually end up as busts are the ones that have 1 dominant pitch, like a 98 MPH fastball, but lack command and solid secondary pitches.

It seems like Joe Jordan prefers pitchers who not only have "pitchability" but also "projectability." Matusz was a college pitcher who had 4 pitches he could throw for strikes but still had some projectability left, despite being as polished as he was. To me, Gibson is as close as you can get to Matusz but the difference is he's a RHP. He is poised and polished but still has room to grow in his 6'6, 210 frame. And to me, he has one of the higher floors, which is important to look at when selecting a player in the top 10. His bust factor is much less than many other pitchers even though he may not have the most talent among the pitchers. Matusz was similar in that regard.

Among high school pitchers, Matzek and Wheeler seem to have the best combo of pitchability & projectability and therefore I think the O's are, or at least should be based on Jordan's history, high on them. They are both talented and have higher floors than many of the other top HS pitchers, at least based on the reports I've read.

As for guys like Crow & Scheppers, they are both obviously very talented but I've become leery of guys who hold out for more money and then pitch in an independent league. For some reason, they don't seem to pan out as well as when they come straight from college (at least not the pitchers). I haven't done any studies on this, but one example I can think of is Luke Hochevar, who held out and pitched for Fort Worth, then was the #1 pick of the Royals and doesn't look like he's going to live up to the hype & status. If the O's pick either Crow or Scheppers I won't be disappointed, but I just won't feel as good about them as I would Gibson, Matzek, or Wheeler.

[crawdad]

Personally, I hope the O's take one of the following 3 pitchers: Gibson, Matzek, or Wheeler. From everything I've read about these guys and studying the statistics, they are 3 of the most well-rounded pitchers that still have projectability. I like when a pitcher already has a good feel for pitching in high school but still has room to grow and improve. The guys who usually end up as busts are the ones that have 1 dominant pitch, like a 98 MPH fastball, but lack command and solid secondary pitches.

It seems like Joe Jordan prefers pitchers who not only have "pitchability" but also "projectability." Matusz was a college pitcher who had 4 pitches he could throw for strikes but still had some projectability left, despite being as polished as he was. To me, Gibson is as close as you can get to Matusz but the difference is he's a RHP. He is poised and polished but still has room to grow in his 6'6, 210 frame. And to me, he has one of the higher floors, which is important to look at when selecting a player in the top 10. His bust factor is much less than many other pitchers even though he may not have the most talent among the pitchers. Matusz was similar in that regard.

Among high school pitchers, Matzek and Wheeler seem to have the best combo of pitchability & projectability and therefore I think the O's are, or at least should be based on Jordan's history, high on them. They are both talented and have higher floors than many of the other top HS pitchers, at least based on the reports I've read.

As for guys like Crow & Scheppers, they are both obviously very talented but I've become leery of guys who hold out for more money and then pitch in an independent league. For some reason, they don't seem to pan out as well as when they come straight from college (at least not the pitchers). I haven't done any studies on this, but one example I can think of is Luke Hochevar, who held out and pitched for Fort Worth, then was the #1 pick of the Royals and doesn't look like he's going to live up to the hype & status. If the O's pick either Crow or Scheppers I won't be disappointed, but I just won't feel as good about them as I would Gibson, Matzek, or Wheeler.

This is not really how I would define projectability. Projectability I read as meaning that we have a good idea where this guy is headed. Pitchability I read as a player who is "polished" with not much to say about how good his break or speed is. Does that make sense?

So, in conclusion I would say that Jordan might look for pitchers who are projectable, but also have potential to improve. I think that statement is probably true for almost every organization out there.

[QBsILLEST1]

Personally, I hope the O's take one of the following 3 pitchers: Gibson, Matzek, or Wheeler. From everything I've read about these guys and studying the statistics, they are 3 of the most well-rounded pitchers that still have projectability. I like when a pitcher already has a good feel for pitching in high school but still has room to grow and improve. The guys who usually end up as busts are the ones that have 1 dominant pitch, like a 98 MPH fastball, but lack command and solid secondary pitches.

It seems like Joe Jordan prefers pitchers who not only have "pitchability" but also "projectability." Matusz was a college pitcher who had 4 pitches he could throw for strikes but still had some projectability left, despite being as polished as he was. To me, Gibson is as close as you can get to Matusz but the difference is he's a RHP. He is poised and polished but still has room to grow in his 6'6, 210 frame. And to me, he has one of the higher floors, which is important to look at when selecting a player in the top 10. His bust factor is much less than many other pitchers even though he may not have the most talent among the pitchers. Matusz was similar in that regard.

Among high school pitchers, Matzek and Wheeler seem to have the best combo of pitchability & projectability and therefore I think the O's are, or at least should be based on Jordan's history, high on them. They are both talented and have higher floors than many of the other top HS pitchers, at least based on the reports I've read.

As for guys like Crow & Scheppers, they are both obviously very talented but I've become leery of guys who hold out for more money and then pitch in an independent league. For some reason, they don't seem to pan out as well as when they come straight from college (at least not the pitchers). I haven't done any studies on this, but one example I can think of is Luke Hochevar, who held out and pitched for Fort Worth, then was the #1 pick of the Royals and doesn't look like he's going to live up to the hype & status. If the O's pick either Crow or Scheppers I won't be disappointed, but I just won't feel as good about them as I would Gibson, Matzek, or Wheeler.

Scheppers last year was a top 10 pick in a pretty loaded draft, but he got hurt and was drafted by the Pirates in the 2nd round, but wanted 1st round money. The pirates drafted him knowing that and intended on giving him this money, as long as his arm was healing and he was showing signs that he would fully recover from the injury to his preinjury days. Apparently, the Pirates didnt feel confident enough that he would come back for the amount of $$ on the table. So didnt ante up the money Scheppers felt he deserved. I myself may not have sold myself short either, you gotta remember, these players are people too and may have a family to feed.....

Crow's situation was botched by both sides. He would have signed for 4 mill last year, but the Nationals wouldnt negotiate with him. They had too much "pride" said some article I read last year about the situation. I do not believe that Crow and the Nats communicated throughout the days until the deadline very efficiently or often.

To me, neither of these guys are not the money hungry player trying to take advantage of teams just because they can. I look in this way at Alvarez who really jerked the Pirates around last year.....