Glaring Difference In Comparing Orioles to Angels and Yankees!

[Lucky Jim]

I think the point was a good one. Not sure why people derailed this thread so quickly. Our bullpen ultimately needs work. The quality and variety of arms that these playoff teams throw out there is a whole different league. Mick, JJ, Hernandez, Berken, Ray all have potential, so we're not too far off the mark. But we need a couple of big bullpen arms in addition to the more obvious needs (1B/3B/SP). I just wouldn't go too crazy with signing expensive FA relievers until we have addressed our need for 1B/3B (one being an impact right handed cleanup hitter), and our young starters have shown they can win games consistently. Trading for a quality reliever mid season isn't going to be as difficult as all the other positions.

So yes, our bullpen isn't what it will need to be to compete with the playoff teams. But until the starters and the offense can hold their ground, I wouldn't advocate going overboard with the pen. I think re-signing Hendrickson is a good move for 2010, but we have too many right handed short relief candidates (Uehara, Johnson, Mickolio, Ray, Meredith). Hernandez and Berken would be nice mid-long relievers, but again...both are right handed. Ideally, in whatever trades AM makes to address our other needs, he can include a guy like Meredith or Ray as added value. That makes room for Castillo or another lefty setup guy via FA or trade.

I think this is a pretty good estimation of where our BP stands. If you look at the Yankees pen, or the Sox pen, they're both comprised of guys who they developed. Mostly, converted starters. I'm confident that a pen of Uehara, Johnson, Mickolio, and Hernandez could handle a lot of the high-leverage innings going forward. And I'd rather not spend big on a closer, though I acknowledge JJ struggled some in the role. I'd like to think that Hernandez or Erbe could be converted, but that's far from a sure thing.

An edit to make clear my thoughts: I'd use Uehara as a floating high-leverage guy. Using him in long relief or in late innings, wherever. I think he could be excellent through 3 innings. I'd re-sign Hendrickson, who I thought was good out of the pen this year (but wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers spike up a bit - he's got volatility written all over him). I'd start the season with JJ at closer, though I'm not convinced he misses enough bats. I'd use Mickolio in the 7th and 8th. And I'd use Hernandez in the 7th and 8th. Ray is a wild card. I'd also make clear to Hernandez that the move wasn't necessarily permanent. I think there's a chance he can start at the MLB level, but his slider has to be there. And he has to use his change.

I disagree about your other designations. I think SS is a far more pressing problem over the long haul than 1B or 3B, and don't see SP as a "pressing" need, either - though I think we should kick the wheels of the SP FAs and see what's out there. I have no problem spending money, but our priority has to be a long-term SS answer. We don't have anything resembling a solution to that problem, and whatever resources in trade we're thinking about using - and this could certainly be a young arm, if we feel we've reached a surplus status - need to be bartered into a SS.

Perhaps I'm higher on Bell and Snyder than others. Snyder's defense has improved significantly. And, as I've noted repeatedly on here, his numbers at Norfolk were resolutely unlucky. His OPS, normalized for luck, was .770. Not fantastic, but surely no failure for an introduction to AAA at 22. I think Snyder is going to be a .280-.310/.350-.360/.450-.500 guy at the MLB level with 20+ HR power. If he's at the bottom of that range, then we'll need to upgrade. If he's at the top of that range - and there's no information out there leading me to believe that he won't be or can't be - then he's enough stick for 1B, if Nick, AJ, Reimold and Wieters are all healthy and performing. Bell's splits concern me, but not his raw power, or the substantial strides he's made defensively and in controlling the strike zone.

I think our line-up in two years looks like this:

Roberts 2B (.280/.360/.440)

Markakis RF (.300/.380/.500)

Wieters C (.300/.400/.500+)

Reimold LF/DH (.270/.360/.500+)

Jones CF (.280/.350/.500)

Snyder 1B (.280/.340/.480)

Bell 3B (.280/.360/.480)

Pie/____ LF/DH (?)

SS (?)

I don't think that's particularly overly-optimistic. And it would score a lot of runs. A scary amount of runs.

I should also be clear that this is the plan, but we have a ton of resources to throw at the issue if (i) there's a good match that makes sense for us in the short-term (i.e., a huge 1B bat) or (ii) one or more of the uncertainties in the line-up falters and we decide to buy to replace (i.e., the way the Sox will kick the tires on slugging corner IFers in part due to Lars Anderson's struggles this year).

Making sense in the short-term means not over-spending to pry a big stick from someone if we're not a good bet to keep him longer than a couple of years.

[Old#5fan]

I think this is a pretty good estimation of where our BP stands. If you look at the Yankees pen, or the Sox pen, they're both comprised of guys who they developed. Mostly, converted starters. I'm confident that a pen of Uehara, Johnson, Mickolio, and Hernandez could handle a lot of the high-leverage innings going forward. And I'd rather not spend big on a closer, though I acknowledge JJ struggled some in the role. I'd like to think that Hernandez or Erbe could be converted, but that's far from a sure thing.

An edit to make clear my thoughts: I'd use Uehara as a floating high-leverage guy. Using him in long relief or in late innings, wherever. I think he could be excellent through 3 innings. I'd re-sign Hendrickson, who I thought was good out of the pen this year (but wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers spike up a bit - he's got volatility written all over him). I'd start the season with JJ at closer, though I'm not convinced he misses enough bats. I'd use Mickolio in the 7th and 8th. And I'd use Hernandez in the 7th and 8th. Ray is a wild card. I'd also make clear to Hernandez that the move wasn't necessarily permanent. I think there's a chance he can start at the MLB level, but his slider has to be there. And he has to use his change.

I disagree about your other designations. I think SS is a far more pressing problem over the long haul than 1B or 3B, and don't see SP as a "pressing" need, either - though I think we should kick the wheels of the SP FAs and see what's out there. I have no problem spending money, but our priority has to be a long-term SS answer. We don't have anything resembling a solution to that problem, and whatever resources in trade we're thinking about using - and this could certainly be a young arm, if we feel we've reached a surplus status - need to be bartered into a SS.

Perhaps I'm higher on Bell and Snyder than others. Snyder's defense has improved significantly. And, as I've noted repeatedly on here, his numbers at Norfolk were resolutely unlucky. His OPS, normalized for luck, was .770. Not fantastic, but surely no failure for an introduction to AAA at 22. I think Snyder is going to be a .280-.310/.350-.360/.450-.500 guy at the MLB level with 20+ HR power. If he's at the bottom of that range, then we'll need to upgrade. If he's at the top of that range - and there's no information out there leading me to believe that he won't be or can't be - then he's enough stick for 1B, if Nick, AJ, Reimold and Wieters are all healthy and performing. Bell's splits concern me, but not his raw power, or the substantial strides he's made defensively and in controlling the strike zone.

I guess my point is that when watching these two teams I don't see the Orioles anywhere realistically close to even beginning to match these teams. If phase I is over than it is a dismal failure as there are really no signs of any improvement at all for example in the bullpen. The only area I see signes of potential is the starting pitching which will be simply undone if the bullpen doesn't improve dramatically and soon as in next year.

I didn't address offense in this thread but again realistically I see only two current Orioles who would even start start for the Yankees and that would be one of either Adam Jones or Nick Markakis as they are both better than Melky Cabrera. However, man for man every Yankee position player is way better than any Orioles as are their starting pitchers and bullpen. So when every frigging player is clearly better this shows that the entire Oriole team needs to be upgraded to realistically stand a ghost of chances of competing. That is my point, and I cannot see where it has even come close to happening yet.

[UMDTerrapins]

I disagree about your other designations. I think SS is a far more pressing problem over the long haul than 1B or 3B, and don't see SP as a "pressing" need, either - though I think we should kick the wheels of the SP FAs and see what's out there. I have no problem spending money, but our priority has to be a long-term SS answer. We don't have anything resembling a solution to that problem, and whatever resources in trade we're thinking about using - and this could certainly be a young arm, if we feel we've reached a surplus status - need to be bartered into a SS.

Perhaps I'm higher on Bell and Snyder than others.

I consider both Bell and Snyder as good prospects, but I'm not ready to consider them long term answers yet. They still have a lot to prove and this lineup needs a brute in the middle. Short of landing Hanley Ramirez, I don't see a SS out there who can be the impact bat we need. (I seem to be obsessing about how much a guy like Holliday would improve our production...why can't he be a 1B?). At some point, at some position, we need to step up and get our guy. If that means spending $$$$$ or trading prospects for a vet, that's what will be needed. AM will need to throw his weight behind something big this winter. Bullpen-wise, I think we're on the same page.

[Lucky Jim]

I guess my point is that when watching these two teams I don't see the Orioles anywhere realistically close to even beginning to match these teams. If phase I is over than it is a dismal failure as there are really no signs of any improvement at all for example in the bullpen. The only area I see signes of potential is the starting pitching which will be simply undone if the bullpen doesn't improve dramatically and soon as in next year.

I didn't address offense in this thread but again realistically I see only two current Orioles who would even start start for the Yankees and that would be one of either Adam Jones or Nick Markakis as they are both better than Melky Cabrera. However, man for man every Yankee position player is way better than any Orioles as are their starting pitchers and bullpen. So when every frigging player is clearly better this shows that the entire Oriole team needs to be upgraded to realistically stand a ghost of chances of competing. That is my point, and I cannot see where it has even come close to happening yet.

I consider both Bell and Snyder as good prospects, but I'm not ready to consider them long term answers yet. They still have a lot to prove and this lineup needs a brute in the middle. Short of landing Hanley Ramirez, I don't see a SS out there who can be the impact bat we need. (I seem to be obsessing about how much a guy like Holliday would improve our production...why can't he be a 1B?). At some point, at some position, we need to step up and get our guy. If that means spending $$$$$ or trading prospects for a vet, that's what will be needed. AM will need to throw his weight behind something big this winter. Bullpen-wise, I think we're on the same page.

I understand both positions. O5F, I don't care about matching up right now, because it's irrelevant. Any number of Reimold, Markakis, Wieters, or Jones could be good enough to start for the Yankees in two years. I elaborated on my post in the meantime to explain where I stand w/r/t the line-up.

I don't see the need for a "brute" in the middle of the line-up, and I think the line-up as I've constructed it is easily good enough to compete with the Yankees and Sox, provided we match up okay elsewhere. I don't see the point in AM making a big move - at a high cost - this winter to address 1B or 3B. I'm not saying he shouldn't, if there's a good opportunity or match. But making it a "at all costs" kind-of priority is a sure way to end up on the bad side of a bargain.

The SS doesn't need to be Hanley Ramirez. It needs to be a guy who is going to offer something like a yearly UZR of between 6 and 12 who can put up a .750 OPS.

[UMDTerrapins]

I didn't address offense in this thread but again realistically I see only two current Orioles who would even start start for the Yankees and that would be one of either Adam Jones or Nick Markakis as they are both better than Melky Cabrera. However, man for man every Yankee position player is way better than any Orioles as are their starting pitchers and bullpen. So when every frigging player is clearly better this shows that the entire Oriole team needs to be upgraded to realistically stand a ghost of chances of competing. That is my point, and I cannot see where it has even come close to happening yet.

Blanket statements are a dangerous thing on this board

A solid argument that given age and likely production going forward, Jones, Markakis, Reimold, Wieters are superior to their Yankeee counterparts. Roberts/Cano is debatable. And no team out there (Yankees included) wouldn't love to have Bergesen and/or Matusz in their rotation at the expense of someone else. We're not as far away as it appears...though still not close.

[El Gordo]

I don't see SS as nearly the probem that 1B/3B is. Our offense lacks power in the middle and these are the two positions where that can be supplied. SS is not a power position. Unless we can land Tulo or HanRam, we are not going to upgrade our offense significantly without sacrificing defense at a crucial defensive position. Izturis or SS like him, can be found and the team cam win with that quality of defense, as long as you are getting the production you need from 3B/1B.

[Sports Guy]

I don't see SS as nearly the probem that 1B/3B is. Our offense lacks power in the middle and these are the two positions where that can be supplied. SS is not a power position. Unless we can land Tulo or HanRam, we are not going to upgrade our offense significantly without sacrificing defense at a crucial defensive position. Izturis or SS like him, can be found and the team cam win with that quality of defense, as long as you are getting the production you need from 3B/1B.

We have nothing at SS, either on the ML team or in the system.

We are going to get offense from CF, 2nd and C, where a lot of teams don't.

The Orioles just need better players, period but SS is the biggest hole in the organization.

[Lucky Jim]

I don't see SS as nearly the probem that 1B/3B is. Our offense lacks power in the middle and these are the two positions where that can be supplied. SS is not a power position. Unless we can land Tulo or HanRam, we are not going to upgrade our offense significantly without sacrificing defense at a crucial defensive position. Izturis or SS like him, can be found and the team cam win with that quality of defense, as long as you are getting the production you need from 3B/1B.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I'm fine with Izturis, but having him at SS only places pressure on other parts of the offense. His defense is excellent, but it's unknown for how long.

I've made my points about what I think we need from 1B and 3B. It's okay by me if folks don't agree, of course.

[El Gordo]

We'll have to agree to disagree. I'm fine with Izturis, but having him at SS only places pressure on other parts of the offense. His defense is excellent, but it's unknown for how long.

I've made my points about what I think we need from 1B and 3B. It's okay by me if folks don't agree, of course.

Unless you sign a Tulo etc. you are only going to get at best about a .750 OPS at SS or less, if you want to maintain his level of defense. That would be nice, but when you aren't getting .700 OPS at either 1B or 3B, it not a main concern IMO. Who are these great young SS we should be running out and signing/trading for? If they were out there, Boston would be after them, they are in the same situation we are at that position. In fact I'm pretty sure they would have been happy to have had Itzuris over what they had there, this season.

[Lucky Jim]

Unless you sign a Tulo etc. you are only going to get at best about a .750 OPS at SS or less, if you want to maintain his level of defense. That would be nice, but when you aren't getting .700 OPS at either 1B or 3B, it not a main concern IMO. Who are these great young SS we should be running out and signing/trading for? If they were out there, Boston would be after them, they are in the same situation we are at that position. In fact I'm pretty sure they would have been happy to have had Itzuris over what they had there, this season.

If you read my whole post - and I'm guessing by your response that you didn't (no big deal) - I said that the SS that I want is a .750 OPS with a yearly UZRish defense of around 8.

I don't see our future as having less than .700 OPS at 1B and 3B w/ Snyder and Bell. My point was that you use your resources now to find a long-term SS and, if in a year it looks as if Bell/Snyder can't give you somewhere between an .800 and .900 OPS, then you apply resources to 1B or 3B (whichever failed).

[RShack]

MSK is exaggaerating I am sure but his point does remain the same...There is a tone on this board, at times, that AM is doing what it takes to get us to where we need to go...That this crop of young pitchers will finally come through for us.

End of the day, where the Orioles stand is very simple...They have a lot of young talent but they clearly do not have the horses to contend in this division on a consistent basis.

So, to do this, AM MUST make several more moves, spend money and make trades.

That's what you always say. No matter what the situation, you think the solution is deals, deals, deals. And more deals. Which is nuts. Some things just take time. You can't bake a cake that requires 45 minutes in 20 minutes. You just can't. While the outcome is uncertain, so far AM is fixing things as fast as is humanly possible. There are zero counter-examples of anybody rebuilding an entire franchise from top to bottom at a faster pace. None. Zero. Zilch. If we get 5 years out and the O's aren't serious contenders, then people might well have a point. Until then, it's just fast-food thinking.

If he does this faster than 5 years, he's setting a new world's record. So far, it looks like he might do it in 4, we'll see in 2011. As long as the team is decent in 2010, not good but decent, then he's on track for that. So far, he's improving the team by 2 key players per year, which is hard to maintain, but it's what it will take. We'll see if he can keep it up. I think he can, but the proof is in the pudding.

[El Gordo]

If you read my whole post - and I'm guessing by your response that you didn't (no big deal) - I said that the SS that I want is a .750 OPS with a yearly UZRish defense of around 8.

I don't see our future as having less than .700 OPS at 1B and 3B w/ Snyder and Bell. My point was that you use your resources now to find a long-term SS and, if in a year it looks as if Bell/Snyder can't give you somewhere between an .800 and .900 OPS, then you apply resources to 1B or 3B (whichever failed).

You need to lower your defensive expectations. There is only one SS in all of MLB who fits that description. Erick Aybar, with a 7.8 UZR and a .776 OPS. The next is Drew at a .748 OPS and a 3.7 UZR. You just don't find that combination of offense and defense at that position. You have to choose one or the other, and I choose defense, because it is more important to a team built around pitching, and it's much cheaper and easier to find.

[Lucky Jim]

You need to lower your defensive expectations. Ther is only one SS in all of MLB who fis that description. Erick Aybar, with a 7.8 UZR and a .776 OPS. The next is Drew at a .748 OPSand a 3.7 UZR. You just don't find that combination of offense and defense at that position. You have to choose one or the other, and I choose defense, bcause it is more important to a team built around pitching, and it's much cheaper and easier to find.

Well, you'll note that I said average. There's enough volatility that when I originally stated it I said a UZR between 6 and 12 year in and year out. But I get your point. For me, the baseline is a .750 OPS and a UZR of around 8. In theory, for every bit above 8 that we get in UZR, you can subtract some OPS. And for every bit of OPS above .750 you get, you can subtract some UZR.

That said, I should restate it and say that I'd be pretty happy with an average - year in and out - of something like 6. (Which would still be exceptional.)

But you're right. I got greedy. So, substitute 6 for 8 in the above.

This is why Hardy is such an intriguing option.

[El Gordo]

Well, you'll note that I said average. There's enough volatility that when I originally stated it I said a UZR between 6 and 12 year in and year out. But I get your point. For me, the baseline is a .750 OPS and a UZR of around 8. In theory, for every bit above 8 that we get in UZR, you can subtract some OPS. And for every bit of OPS above .750 you get, you can subtract some UZR.

That said, I should restate it and say that I'd be pretty happy with an average - year in and out - of something like 6. (Which would still be exceptional.)

But you're right. I got greedy. So, substitute 6 for 8 in the above.

This is why Hardy is such an intriguing option.

Average of 6 isn't going to help you much. It allows you to have Alex Gonzalez, Hardy, Jeter, and Ryan Theroit. After that you get Drew at 3.7 or worse. Hey, Jeter's a FA after next season?:mwahaha:

[Sports Guy]

That's what you always say. No matter what the situation, you think the solution is deals, deals, deals. And more deals. Which is nuts. Some things just take time. You can't bake a cake that requires 45 minutes in 20 minutes. You just can't. While the outcome is uncertain, so far AM is fixing things as fast as is humanly possible. There are zero counter-examples of anybody rebuilding an entire franchise from top to bottom at a faster pace. None. Zero. Zilch. If we get 5 years out and the O's aren't serious contenders, then people might well have a point. Until then, it's just fast-food thinking.

If he does this faster than 5 years, he's setting a new world's record. So far, it looks like he might do it in 4, we'll see in 2011. As long as the team is decent in 2010, not good but decent, then he's on track for that. So far, he's improving the team by 2 key players per year, which is hard to maintain, but it's what it will take. We'll see if he can keep it up. I think he can, but the proof is in the pudding.

Saying it should take 5 years is absurd, especially since he had some good talent when he came in.

That is just your AM hero worship clouding any common sense.

This team should be a 500 or better team next year and a contender the year after.

Barring major injuries or just poor development of the young talent we already have, there is no excuse for those things not to happen.