Time to trade Felix Pie

[birdman57]

Trading Pie right now would be the biggest mistake this organization has made in ten years, and yes, that's saying something. I fully believe that within two years Felix will be a more valuable player than Markakis, Reimold, or Adam Jones.

Are you his father???

[Satyr3206]

When I read posts like this, it really makes me wonder what some of you are watching.

Baseball. And I've been watching for over 40 years. If he develops and becomes an All Star I'll admit I was wrong. I just don't think that's in the cards.

[Lucky Jim]

Baseball. And I've been watching for over 40 years. If he develops and becomes an All Star I'll admit I was wrong. I just don't think that's in the cards.

You've made two empirical claims: (i) weak arm; (ii) noy much power.

"Watching baseball for 40 years" isn't support for either empirical claim, unless you're O5F. And then you're grandfathered in from the pre-empirical era.

So, you really claim that you saw a player with a weak arm and no power? Because if you did, then you really shouldn't trust your eyes.

[RShack]

Jones and it's not close.

That's probably right if you're talking about a trade right now. But if you're talking about how it's all gonna shake out in the end, well, there's no way to know yet. Probably safe to say that AJ is the more marketable character, in terms of personality and his wholesome-seeming All-American-ness, but when it comes to the actual baseball part, we don't really know.

People refer to Pie as a 5 tool player. Well he doesn't hit for much power, has a weak arm, and doesn't steal even though he's fast. Doesn't sound like 5 tool to me. I'm not totally down on him, I just think some massively overrate him.

His arm is fine and better than most (including AJ so far, when it comes to knowing exactly where the ball is going). Having speed as a tool doesn't just mean you can steal bases. No way to know if he can learn to do that. As for power, he can hit line drives over the fence just fine. I think your assessment is more down on him than you seem to think it is. When comparing him to AJ, their profiles are very similar in lots of ways, it could go either way... which is why it'd be dumb to trade him for what he would bring back now, which likely would be not much. Better to wait and see how good he can be. AM's not risking beans by keeping him now, but trading him now for not much could turn out to be a major catastrophe.

[Satyr3206]

That's probably right if you're talking about a trade right now. But if you're talking about how it's all gonna shake out in the end, well, there's no way to know yet. Probably safe to say that AJ is the more marketable character, in terms of personality and his wholesome-seeming All-American-ness, but when it comes to the actual baseball part, we don't really know.

His arm is fine and better than most (including AJ so far, when it comes to knowing exactly where the ball is going). Having speed as a tool doesn't just mean you can steal bases. No way to know if he can learn to do that. As for power, he can hit line drives over the fence just fine. I think your assessment is more down on him than you seem to think it is. When comparing him to AJ, their profiles are very similar in lots of ways, it could go either way... which is why it'd be dumb to trade him for what he would bring back now, which likely would be not much. Better to wait and see how good he can be. AM's not risking beans by keeping him now, but trading him now for not much could turn out to be a major catastrophe.

Actually I think Pie fills a valuable role right now. I'm not advocating letting him go for a bag of peanuts either. I just see more holes in his game than I do in Jones. And Jones' issues are easier to solve.

[Stotle]

Jones and it's not close. People refer to Pie as a 5 tool player. Well he doesn't hit for much power, has a weak arm, and doesn't steal even though he's fast. Doesn't sound like 5 tool to me. I'm not totally down on him, I just think some massively overrate him.

You can't make statements like the bolded and expect your opinion to be taken seriously. That's not meant to be snotty, but Pie has routinely been clocked at right field arm strength. He has a hose.

Further, Pie's 5-tool upside is just upside. Last year was an encouraging to some that he may still be able to reach a very valuable level of performance, if not necessarily the ceiling everyone saw for him back in 2007.

To answer the posed question, Jones has more value and is a safer bet to provide quality ML production. Both can be above-average center fielders. Pie may ultimately have a higher ceiling, but it seems unlikely he passes Jones when all is said and done.

EDIT -- I looked past the power comment. As Lucky Jim points out, Pie has good raw power. His bat speed is held in very high regard, and he produces hard contact with 20+ HR potential. To state another way, he has all the pieces you'd look for in identifying a future homerun hitter, but those pieces haven't yet come together for a full Major League season.

[Satyr3206]

You can't make statements like the bolded and expect your opinion to be taken seriously. That's not meant to be snotty, but Pie has routinely been clocked at right field arm strength. He has a hose.

Further, Pie's 5-tool upside is just upside. Last year was an encouraging to some that he may still be able to reach a very valuable level of performance, if not necessarily the ceiling everyone saw for him back in 2007.

To answer the posed question, Jones has more value and is a safer bet to provide quality ML production. Both can be above-average center fielders. Pie may ultimately have a higher ceiling, but it seems unlikely he passes Jones when all is said and done.

EDIT -- I looked past the power comment. As Lucky Jim points out, Pie has good raw power. His bat speed is held in very high regard, and he produces hard contact with 20+ HR potential. To state another way, he has all the pieces you'd look for in identifying a future homerun hitter, but those pieces haven't yet come together for a full Major League season.

I've had Extra Innings for years and I watch a lot of games. I've never seen Pie throw comparable to Markakis, Vlad, or any of the power arms in RF. Maybe I missed those games.

I have my opinion and others have theirs. Only time will tell who's right.

And don't worry about the snotty thing, my wife has that market covered.

[Sports Guy]

Actually I think Pie fills a valuable role right now. I'm not advocating letting him go for a bag of peanuts either. I just see more holes in his game than I do in Jones. And Jones' issues are easier to solve.

This is a much different argument than saying he has a weak arm and no power.

[Satyr3206]

This is a much different argument than saying he has a weak arm and no power.

I'll rephrase to below average arm and power. All of those "trade Jones" and "make Pie the CF starter" may have gotten to me.

[Stotle]

I've had Extra Innings for years and I watch a lot of games. I've never seen Pie throw comparable to Markakis, Vlad, or any of the power arms in RF. Maybe I missed those games.

I have my opinion and others have theirs. Only time will tell who's right.

And don't worry about the snotty thing, my wife has that market covered.

I am not talking about eyeballing. I'm talking about scouting, which utilizes radar readings. He has consistently shown right field arm strength, and is above-average for a center fielder and well above-average for a left fielder. It's probably a case of your eyes not being able to gauge correctly. Could be because of the difference in how you view carry on the ball, or something like that. But he has plus, to plus-plus arm strength depending on the day.

[olehippi]

Despite the fact it "appears" that the O's have been shopping Pie around a little, I think it's more to get a feel for what he might be worth, not an intent to trade him. IMO, the O's potentially have one of the best outfields in MLB, including Pie as a roving 4th OF'er. If anything, Luke Scott is the odd man out, and unless they make a trade, I think he is destined for a 1B/DH much like last year, which I think is great run production-wise.

[RShack]

Despite the fact it "appears" that the O's have been shopping Pie around a little...

Not sure why it's a fact that it "appears" that they are. Just because some bargain hunters ask AM about him, and he tells them a non-bargain price they don't like, that doesn't mean the O's are shopping him any more or less than they're shopping anybody else...

[Lucky Jim]

I'll rephrase to below average arm and power. All of those "trade Jones" and "make Pie the CF starter" may have gotten to me.

It's still not true. In fact, "wildly inaccurate" is applicable.

[RShack]

I'll rephrase to below average arm and power.

How old is your TV? ;-)

[Stotle]

As another aside regarding Pie, a fair number of scouts fully anticipated that it would take Pie upwards of three ML seasons to develop his game and become an impact player (not necessarily scouts in the Cubs system). I would avoid moving him for another season or two unless he's is bringing back a solution where there is currently a big hole. He could be really special, and I think is a fair bet to be an above-average contributor if given the chance.