Time to trade Felix Pie

[Satyr3206]

I am not talking about eyeballing. I'm talking about scouting, which utilizes radar readings. He has consistently shown right field arm strength, and is above-average for a center fielder and well above-average for a left fielder. It's probably a case of your eyes not being able to gauge correctly. Could be because of the difference in how you view carry on the ball, or something like that. But he has plus, to plus-plus arm strength depending on the day.

I'm going to try to come up this year and maybe seeing him in person could alter my opinion.

I've never been big on radar guns except to spot declines in velocity and fastball / changeup difference. I want to see command and control, mound presence, and ability to change speeds.

Another possibility is that I need a new prescription for my glasses.:laughlol:

[Sports Guy]

I'll rephrase to below average arm and power. All of those "trade Jones" and "make Pie the CF starter" may have gotten to me.

And you would still be way wrong.

The people saying to trade Jones are saying that his value is very high and since we have a good replacement for him, who has less value, then you can deal Jones for a position of need(ace or first baseman) and put Pie in CF.

[Satyr3206]

How old is your TV? ;-)

It has vacuum tubes. Does that help?:laughlol:

[Satyr3206]

And you would still be way wrong.

The people saying to trade Jones are saying that his value is very high and since we have a good replacement for him, who has less value, then you can deal Jones for a position of need(ace or first baseman) and put Pie in CF.

I could be wrong. It has happened before. But I'll take the AllStar with the Gold Glove.

I understand the trade Jones argument. I just think it would be pretty dumb to do before Pie has proven anything.

[Stotle]

I'm going to try to come up this year and maybe seeing him in person could alter my opinion.

I've never been big on radar guns except to spot declines in velocity and fastball / changeup difference. I want to see command and control, mound presence, and ability to change speeds.

Another possibility is that I need a new prescription for my glasses.:laughlol:

Haha. I understand -- and to be honest one of my biggest "wow" moments with regards to Pie's arm strength was watching him warm-up at Yankee stadium before the game. So maybe it will change your mind.

This past year was my first using my own radar gun rather consistently (Stalker Pro II) and it has helped a lot in clearing up some of my views on players' skill sets. I'm more easily able to discern, for example, whether a shortstop is relying on a quick release or pure arm strength. From the outfield, it helps me to discern between two comparble arms (what's the max velocity on the flight path? is someone getting similar velocity but with less carry? etc.). I'd look for low- to mid-90s velocity from the OF and good release and carry to consider someone as a possible RF arm at the pro level.

[TyCobb]

I disagree with this. It may take a few season to get a good statistical handle on comparable value of a player's defense. However, I think you can get pretty close, or in other words a "good idea", of a player's defensive capabilities in much less time.

To be clear, I agree that you probably need a few seasons if you are talking about nailing down the comparative value of players using defensive metrics.

Ok. You have watched Pie and consider yourself a scout. How many runs better do you think Pie is in LF and CF (separately because I don't think Pie stays a O's very long) over the next few years?

My WOW moment was in Camden yards and AJ threw the ball from the CF wall to homeplate on a fly. Blew my mind.

[jdmyprez]

I tend to view the situation this way. Scouts all over baseball believed that Pie was a monster in the making and almost all critics agree that Pie was not handled correctly during his time in Chicago. Obviously AM was very high on bring Pie here because he saw what all the other scouts were seeing. With hard work and patience, Pie turned in an all star quality second half of the season and there is no reason to believe that he cannot carry this over to spring training and beyond. I say we hold into him and see what happens. I am a very firm believer that we are going to see Pie blossom into a future hall of famer.

[Stotle]

Ok. You have watched Pie and consider yourself a scout. How many runs better do you think Pie is in LF and CF (separately because I don't think Pie stays a O's very long) over the next few years?

My WOW moment was in Camden yards and AJ threw the ball from the CF wall to homeplate on a fly. Blew my mind.

First, I've actually gone out of my way to say numerous times that I do NOT consider myself a scout. I haven't been formally trained and do not hold my opinion above anyone else's well reasoned opinion. I have some rudimentary knowledge about the art of scouting and have been fortunate enough to get some instruction from some people with good credentials. But my opinion is certainly not a substitute for the opinion of a true "scout".

Based on whay I've seen of Pie, he has above-average to well above-average arm strength for LF/CF and easily enough footspeed to cover the gaps. His routes are inconsistent, but he actually tracks well, helping him to make up for his sometimes poor first step/direction.

I think he is potentially an above-average to well above-average defender at either position with positive value. I don't know how to quantify that with a number of runs saved. But I think a pro scout can look at Pie solely based on last season and adequately determine whether or not Pie can be below-average, average or above-average. My best guess would be that the tools easily add up to an above-average defender with more reps.

[Frobby]

Ok. You have watched Pie and consider yourself a scout. How many runs better do you think Pie is in LF and CF (separately because I don't think Pie stays a O's very long) over the next few years?

My WOW moment was in Camden yards and AJ threw the ball from the CF wall to homeplate on a fly. Blew my mind.

Jones has a very strong arm, but his accuracy is kind of erratic. He makes a lot of throws where he doesn't get himself into proper position to make his strongest, most accurate throw. Still, his hold rate and his kill rate in CF were well above league average. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01-field.shtml

Pie was basically league average on hold rate and kill rate when playing CF. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/piefe01-field.shtml

I think both players have the tools to be above average defensively in CF. Jones was better in 2008 than in 2009 in terms of ball-chasing. I'm not sure if this was due to the added weight he put on, or because of nagging injuries that slowed him a bit.

[TyCobb]

Crawford is the gold standard in LF. Saves 13.1 runs per 150 games over the past 3 years.

Gutierrez is a freak of nature so we won't use him.

BJ Uption saved 9.7 runs per 150 games in CF for the past 3 years.

Would you put Pie in that level/ lower/ maybe higher?

[TyCobb]

Jones has a very strong arm, but his accuracy is kind of erratic. He makes a lot of throws where he doesn't get himself into proper position to make his strongest, most accurate throw. His hold rate and his kill rate in CF were slightly below league average. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01-field.shtml

Pie was basically league average on hold rate and kill rate when playing CF. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/piefe01-field.shtml

I think both players have the tools to be above average defensively in CF. Jones was better in 2008 than in 2009 in terms of ball-chasing. I'm not sure if this was due to the added weight he put on, or because of nagging injuries that slowed him a bit.

AJ has one of (if not the) the strongest OF arm in baseball.

UZR gives Jones a 7.3 ARM. Double anyone else in CF and that is a counting stat. So he could have scored even better with more innings.

[Stotle]

Crawford is the gold standard in LF. Saves 13.1 runs per 150 games over the past 3 years.

Gutierrez is a freak of nature so we won't use him.

BJ Uption saved 9.7 runs per 150 games in CF for the past 3 years.

Would you put Pie in that level/ lower/ maybe higher?

In CF, I think Pie could be similar to a Michael Bourn, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, eventually. But he'll need continued reps to improve his routes. If he simply can't improve his routes (can't read the ball off the bat at the same level as other top tier defenders) I think he can still be above-average because of his footspeed/arm, but not elite.

I'd put Jones in the same category, though I think he is more refined in his routes than is Pie, but can less afford mistakes because he doesn't have quite the footspeed. I'll be interested to see how much ground Jones covers in 2010 -- if he bounces back I think he's in the discussion for Top 5 defensive CF in the game. I fully expect his tracking to improve with reps, and I think he will improve his accuracy as he does a better job of setting himself up and repeating a smooth release.

I think both are comparable players with differing floor/ceiling deltas but similar likely end-points.

[Frobby]

AJ has one of (if not the) the strongest OF arm in baseball.

UZR gives Jones a 7.3 ARM. Double anyone else in CF and that is a counting stat. So he could have scored even better with more innings.

I misread the data on BB-Ref and I have edited my post. Jones was well above league average in hold rate and kill rate, and better than Pie in both categories.

Hold rate: Jones 53.8%, Pie 45.3%

Kill rate: Jones 2.0%, Pie 1.9%

[TyCobb]

I am a big fan of Gomez. I think he is at the top of the second tier class of CFers (Gutierrez is in the top tier all by himself). I would be trilled if AJ turns out to be in that class of fielder (my guess is he is in the 5-8 run range)

Granderson had 2 great years and they have dropped off.

[TyCobb]

I misread the data on BB-Ref and I have edited my post. Jones was well above league average in hold rate and kill rate, and better than Pie in both categories.

Hold rate: Jones 53.8%, Pie 45.3%

Kill rate: Jones 2.0%, Pie 1.9%

I am not surprised because I looked at that link and had no idea what all those columns are about.

Jones is a very well respected OF. I would be surprised if runners took chances on AJ arm.