Orioles Interested In Ryan Shealy

[AgentOrange]

But the are and they do.

If you're driving around in a classic Benz, I'm not going to pay top dollar for the '99 Infiniti sitting in your garage.

I understand what you are trying to say with your analogy, but it doesn't make sense. I guess I will take a stab at it though... If you are driving a Ford Escort, the infinity is an upgrade even though I have the benz. Just because I don't drive it, doesn't mean its not a good car, or at least a lot better than what you have.

I think you are rating Olsen a bit too high. This is why you don't feel like its a good deal.

I would stick to Davearm's opinion on this one, only reason being is because we tend to have a halo effect with our prospects and I think Olsen is replaceable.

[Sports Guy]

I wonder why the Rockies have moved him up the ladder so slowly. A season of rookie ball at age 23, A+ at 24, AA at 25, AAA at 26. His stats are very good, but something smells fishy to me.

I know they tried him in the OF and it didn't work out...Not sure if that hurt his development or not though.

Guys, this does have a little Jack Cust feeling...Which is not a bad thing but even me, a big Cust supporter, wouldn't have dealt Olson for him.

Now, Shealy seems to have power but nonetheless, they are similar players.

[ejf1025]

Olson might be better than JJ. He might be a lot better. But IMO, this just goes to show how perceptions work. Johnson was 21 last year and was the Carolina League pitcher of the year. He was also a top ten prospect. He has struggled this year a little at AA, and his stock has dropped. But he's only 22, the same age as Olson. We don't know what Olson will do at AA. And yet, Johnson is a consensus tradeable and Olson is considered off limits by most. Olson's stock might drop too.

Very true.

I guess I just think it's that very unknown that makes Olson more appealing.

I'd use that exact same argument to convince the Rockies to take Johnson: "Hey, he was Carolina League pitcher of the year. He'll turn it around." :002_sbiggrin:

[Sports Guy]

I understand what you are trying to say with your analogy, but it doesn't make sense.

I think you are rating Olsen a bit too high. This is why you don't feel like its a good deal.

I would stick to Davearm's opinion on this one, only reason being is because we tend to have a halo effect with our prospects and I think Olsen is replaceable.

Let's not forget that Tony and BB have both said they have been told that Olson may be better than Penn or Loewen...Would you deal either of them for Shealy?

I am nto opposed to trading Olson but if i do, he is the second pitcher in a deal for Crawford...It is not to get a soon to be 27 y/o DH.

[AgentOrange]

Let's not forget that Tony and BB have both said they have been told that Olson may be better than Penn or Loewen...Would you deal either of them for Shealy?

I am nto opposed to trading Olson but if i do, he is the second pitcher in a deal for Crawford...It is not to get a soon to be 27 y/o DH.

Sure, he may be better, but there are also reports out there that he is nothing more than a BP arm.

[Just Regular]

Here's Tracy Ringolsby on Shealy from the Baseball America chat on Colorado's top 10 prospects this past offseason:

Q: Jason from Boston, Mass. asks:

Can you tell me a little more about the career prospects of Ryan Shealy? I know that a lot of teams -- including my Red Sox -- have been interested in him. What kind of numbers do you think we'd se if he were playing every day this year? Are the Rockies really serious about using him as an outfielder in the long-term? What's the chance he gets traded this year, and now that the Rockies found a catcher and presumably don't need Kelly Shoppach, is there any chance he'd still end up in Boston?

A: Moderator: Shealy has big time power potential and shows a decent hitting disicpline. He will have to adjust to the ball inside because teams will try to crowd him. He did a solid job at first. For the Rockies to be able to keep him he has to be a right-handed back up to Brad Hawpe in right field and to his credit he has taken the challenge seriously enough that he has lost 20 some pounds to try and become more agile in the outfield and to take pressure off his knees. He could be dealt but he won't be given away.

[Sports Guy]

Sure, he may be better, but there are also reports out there that he is nothing more than a BP arm.

No, there was one report from an isolated scout who may not have much credibility.

Big difference.

[SilentJames]

I say go for it

[ejf1025]

I understand what you are trying to say with your analogy, but it doesn't make sense. I guess I will take a stab at it though... If you are driving a Ford Escort, the infinity is an upgrade even though I have the benz. Just because I don't drive it, doesn't mean its not a good car, or at least a lot better than what you have.

I think you are rating Olsen a bit too high. This is why you don't feel like its a good deal.

I would stick to Davearm's opinion on this one, only reason being is because we tend to have a halo effect with our prospects and I think Olsen is replaceable.

Yeah, but if you're moving out of state to a penthouse apartment and need cash...and I have the luxury of knowing that I'm going to be stuck in my double-wide for a bit. I'm guessing you'll budge before I do.

This analogy is starting to get a tad ridiculous, I know.

Still, as SG pointed out, I think many overrate the market for Shealy, I doubt the Rockies would have waited this long to trade him if people were beating down the door...

[Frobby]

Did you see the thread on the minor league board where some unidentified NL scout was characterizing Olson as a two-pitch bullpen guy who couldn't go through a lineup twice? I wonder if it was some Rockies scout trying to get him devalued for this trade!

From BA:

We caught up with a veteran scout from a National League club to give us his assessment on the O's lefty.

"I just don't see it," the scout said. "I just don't see anything much to get excited about. He has decent life on all his pitches--except the changeup--but he's just not being utilized in the right way in my opinion. But that life is best early, then it drops off.

"I was a little generous in my report on him, just because he was such a high-round pick. I made him a reliever as a situational lefthander out of the pen. That's where I see his stuff being utilized the right way. And where I see him having the most success quickly. Even if he has the aptitude to develop a changeup, that's going to take a while and I see him being best using that running fastball and that hard breaking ball--that's it. He's a two-pitch guy who doesn't need a changeup. He needs to further hone his fastball and his breaking ball. The addition of working in a changeup in this situation only stunts him and limits him from what he really is.

"As a starter, he just doesn't have enough umph on his stuff to go through the lineup more than one time. Developing a changeup would help him in that type of role, but now, this guy goes through the lineup twice and guys have him figured out."

[AgentOrange]

No, there was one report from an isolated scout who may not have much credibility.

Big difference.

You don't know, so its not fair to discredit, or use as the main crux to an argument...

We will see.

It was interesting that he got smacked around in the 6th inning though...

[AgentOrange]

Did you see the thread on the minor league board where some unidentified NL scout was characterizing Olson as a two-pitch bullpen guy who couldn't go through a lineup twice? I wonder if it was some Rockies scout trying to get him devalued for this trade!

From BA:

Wow, I never thought about that, but that is too funny to ignore.

[Sports Guy]

You don't know, so its not fair to discredit, or use as the main crux to an argument...

We will see.

It was interesting that he got smacked around in the 6th inning though...

Basing that off of what Tony speculated, that's all....Besides, that was one scout...Some Orioles scouts think he could be better than Penn, so even if he is somewhere in the middle, he is a middle of the rotation guy and that is not worth a soon to be 27 y/o DH.

[NoVaO]

Just for comparison:

Cust is 27, Shealy is 26. Shealy is just 8 months younger.

I am going to start the comparisons from each player's first year in AA.

Shealy, 25, AA - .318/.411/.584/.995, 469 ABs, 123 K's, 32 doubles, 29 HR's

Cust, 21, AA - .293/.440/.526/.966, 447 ABs, 150 K's, 32 doubles, 27 HR's

Shealy, 26, AAA - .328/.393/.601/.994, 411 ABs, 81 K's, 30 doubles, 26 HR's

Shealy, 26, AAA - .284/.357/.593/.950, 162 ABs, 26 K's, 12 doubles, 12 HR's

Cust, 22, AAA - .278/.416/.525/.941, 442 ABs, 160 K's, 24 doubles, 23 HR's

Cust, 23, AAA - .265/.407/.524/.931, 359 ABs, 121 K's, 24 doubles, 23 HR's

Cust, 24, AAA (in Ottawa) - .285/.422/.426/.848, 333 ABs, 94 K's, 9 HR's

Cust, 25, AAA - .235/.358/.433/.791, 344 ABs, 127 K's, 17 HR's

What do these numbers suggest?

Shealy has consistently hit for a high average. Beginning his junior year in college, the lowest he has hit in the minors is .299 in high-A ball. Cust did hit .334 in high-A ball, but never recorded an average of higher than .293 afterwards.

Shealy doesn't have quite the eye as Cust, but of course Cust had too good of an eye, waiting for the perfect pitch, which caused his K rate to soar.

Which leads me to Cust's ridiculously high K rate. A K rate that never improved and probably worsened. Shealy had a poor K rate in AA, but it was never as bad as Cust. Also, Shealy improved his K rate in AAA last year, and so far this year.

Also, Cust's best year in AA or above in terms of slugging % would still be 60 points behind Shealy's second best year.

Basically, Cust and Shealy, while similar in styles, are not all that similar in terms of talent and production. Shealy is clearly better.

To me, he seems to project to a .270 - .285 BA, .330 - .350 OBP, .470 - .500 slugging along with 30 doubles and 20 - 25 home runs.

Is trading him for Olsen a fair deal? Yes it is. Whether one does that deal is a different story.

Personally, I would like to see a Javy and JJ Johnson for Shealy deal, but if I had to, I would be willing to deal Olsen for Shealy.

[Sports Guy]

Just for comparison:

Cust is 27, Shealy is 26. Shealy is just 8 months younger.

I am going to start the comparisons from each player's first year in AA.

Shealy, 25, AA - .318/.411/.584/.995, 469 ABs, 123 K's, 32 doubles, 29 HR's

Cust, 21, AA - .293/.440/.526/.966, 447 ABs, 150 K's, 32 doubles, 27 HR's

Shealy, 26, AAA - .328/.393/.601/.994, 411 ABs, 81 K's, 30 doubles, 26 HR's

Shealy, 26, AAA - .284/.357/.593/.950, 162 ABs, 26 K's, 12 doubles, 12 HR's

Cust, 22, AAA - .278/.416/.525/.941, 442 ABs, 160 K's, 24 doubles, 23 HR's

Cust, 23, AAA - .265/.407/.524/.931, 359 ABs, 121 K's, 24 doubles, 23 HR's

Cust, 24, AAA (in Ottawa) - .285/.422/.426/.848, 333 ABs, 94 K's, 9 HR's

Cust, 25, AAA - .235/.358/.433/.791, 344 ABs, 127 K's, 17 HR's

What do these numbers suggest?

Shealy has consistently hit for a high average. Beginning his junior year in college, the lowest he has hit in the minors is .299 in high-A ball. Cust did hit .334 in high-A ball, but never recorded an average of higher than .293 afterwards.

Shealy doesn't have quite the eye as Cust, but of course Cust had too good of an eye, waiting for the perfect pitch, which caused his K rate to soar.

Which leads me to Cust's ridiculously high K rate. A K rate that never improved and probably worsened. Shealy had a poor K rate in AA, but it was never as bad as Cust. Also, Shealy improved his K rate in AAA last year, and so far this year.

Also, Cust's best year in AA or above in terms of slugging % would still be 60 points behind Shealy's second best year.

Basically, Cust and Shealy, while similar in styles, are not all that similar in terms of talent and production. Shealy is clearly better.

To me, he seems to project to a .270 - .285 BA, .330 - .350 OBP, .470 - .500 slugging along with 30 doubles and 20 - 25 home runs.

Is trading him for Olsen a fair deal? Yes it is. Whether one does that deal is a different story.

Personally, I would like to see a Javy and JJ Johnson for Shealy deal, but if I had to, I would be willing to deal Olsen for Shealy.

Nice post..Thanks for the stats.