The team's situation next winter will be very different

[Frobby]

I've been thinking about what the team's situation will be like next winter, and what challenges they will be facing.

Pitching

Millwood: hopefully he will have done well enough in 2010 to earn Type A status, and the team can offer him arbitration and either retain him or get draft picks.

Guthrie: if he has a pretty strong rebound, he'll be two years away from free agency and pretty attractive trade bait, especially if enough of the younger pitchers have come through.

Matusz/Tillman/Bergesen: hopefully they leave no doubt that they belong in the rotation and those are three spots we can just penciil in for the following 5 seasons.

Hernandez/Berken: you hope they settle in as useful bullpen pieces, and/or prove capable of earning a back of the rotation spot if someone else is injured or falters.

Arrieta/Erbe: by the end of the year, their minor league apprenticeships are over, and perhaps (especially in Arrieta's case) they've had some chance to show what they can do at the major league level.

Britton: you hope he has a successful AA campaign, perhaps earning a promotion to Norfolk at mid-season or a little later, making him a candidate to contribute at the major league level some time in 2011.

Patton: he has either come back stronger, in whcih case he could have a major league role sometime in 2010, or he really hasn't progressed much, in which case you can pretty much write him off as a significant asset after the 2010 season.

That is a ton of information we are going to have by the end of 2010, and we could be in a true position of strength by season's end, able to trade some pitching for other needs. I wouldn't have dealt any pitching this offseason, but next winter we may well be in a position to do so. Note I didn't address the pure bullpen guys, including Uehara. Certainly their seasons have an impact on next offseason, too, but I don't think it's as dramatic.

Hitting

Jones: Does he stay healthy and continue improving at a good rate? If so, do we extend him next offseason?

Pie/Reimold: How much playing time do each of them get? Do they both build on what they accomplished in 2009, or do they regress? If both of them have good showings and Jones does as well, do we move one of them next winter?

Scott: can he avoid the steakiness that has plagued him? Will he be on the roster next October? He's probably the biggest candidate for a trade before then.

Shortstop: what are we doing here? Can we trade for a young, long term piece, or find a veteran with a solid glove but a much better bat than Izzy?

Bell/Snyder: much like Arrieta and Erbe, by the end of 2010 their minor league apprenticeships are over, hopefully they have gotten some significant major league exposure and the team needs to decide whether to commit to giving them major playing time in 2011.

Atkins: does he do enough in 2010 to justify exercising his option? Is he trade bait? Has he done enough to cause doubt whether he deserves to start in 2011 over either Snyder or Bell?

Again, that's a lot of information to take in. I should add that the minor league performances of Joseph, Waring, and Florimon also bear watching.

I think you will see the O's have a very active winter next year. I could see one or two pretty major trades going down, with real talent flowing both directions so the O's can eliminate some surpluses and shore up their weaknesses. I think the O's will be in a much better position to make those kinds of moves next winter, when a lot of the questions posed above are answered.

[jerios55]

Scott: can he avoid the steakiness that has plagued him? Will he be on the roster next October? He's probably the biggest candidate for a trade before then.

Is that what causes his up and down seasons? No wonder he's such a beefy man

I am hopeful to see all that pitching stuff come true, but it's probably a bit much to think all those guys will pitch well. There is a good chance at least 1-2 of those guys will need longer (or in Berken/Patton's case probably never). Hopefully, they can come in together and learn together, but challenge each other as well.

[Frobby]

I am hopeful to see all that pitching stuff come true, but it's probably a bit much to think all those guys will pitch well. There is a good chance at least 1-2 of those guys will need longer (or in Berken/Patton's case probably never).

I agree with you. My point is that by next winter the situation will be a lot less iffy. It will be apparent whether we have certain rotation spots that have been locked down, and whether we have several more qualified, major league-ready candidates for the remaining spots than we have spots. And that dictates our willingness to trade pitching.

[mikezpen]

Next winter, we'll probably have the same c%#p from the Orioles. More second and third-rate signings and the usual excuses for not signing any really good ones.

[ChaosLex]

I think you will see the O's have a very active winter next year. I could see one or two pretty major trades going down, with real talent flowing both directions so the O's can eliminate some surpluses and shore up their weaknesses. I think the O's will be in a much better position to make those kinds of moves next winter, when a lot of the questions posed above are answered.

I have my doubts about this. I hope you're right though.

I'll be the first to admit that it makes me jealous seeing other teams sign and/or trade for superstars, while we... well, don't. Not that there was anyone particularly worthwhile pursuing this offseason! At least, not for this team in the state it's in. Still, as an O's fan, just once I'd like to see us add a "major piece."

[Stotle]

If there aren't a few major moves by this time next year then BAL is in serious trouble. The clock is now running on AM. He has a year, but there's enough info right now to at least start targeting opportunities to bring in pieces. Next off-season he'll NEED to make moves, rather than just keeping his eye out for the opportunity to make a big move.

[Frobby]

If there aren't a few major moves by this time next year then BAL is in serious trouble. The clock is now running on AM. He has a year, but there's enough info right now to at least start targeting opportunities to bring in pieces. Next off-season he'll NEED to make moves, rather than just keeping his eye out for the opportunity to make a big move.

Yes, I'd say I agree with this. Of course, we'll need to see exactly what the landscape is, i.e. whether it appears there are good in-house long term solutions everywhere except SS, or whether it has become apparent that some of our other in-house solutions aren't panning out as well as we hoped, or are further away than hoped.

[Stotle]

Yes, I'd say I agree with this. Of course, we'll need to see exactly what the landscape is, i.e. whether it appears there are good in-house long term solutions everywhere except SS, or whether it has become apparent that some of our other in-house solutions aren't panning out as well as we hoped, or are further away than hoped.

Absolutely. But if in-house solutions aren't panning out he still needs to bring in talent. Otherwise, you're now throwing away money on Roberts/Markakis and your're starting to squander your cheap years with Wieters/Matusz/Tillman (I understand they could be disappointing in your hypothetical).

[Sports Guy]

Same story, different year.

[ChaosLex]

Same story, different year.

Agreed. I've been hearing about this "next winter" for quite some time now. :scratchchinhmm:

[bird watcher]

I agree with you. My point is that by next winter the situation will be a lot less iffy. It will be apparent whether we have certain rotation spots that have been locked down, and whether we have several more qualified, major league-ready candidates for the remaining spots than we have spots. And that dictates our willingness to trade pitching.

I still say there is a chance that things become MORE "iffy". Look at Markakis and or Guthrie for example (especially Markakis). Who are they? They have been in the league for a while now and the significant dip they took last year leaves me wondering?

I don[t believe we will get definitive answers about most of the young guys next year. What if Tillman and Matusz pitch to a 4.90 ERA? Bust? Still young and learning? Do we have answers then?

How about if Jones hits to .770 OPS? Or Markakis .830? Those are the situations I fear. Middle of the road production where we are all left hoping for the breakout (think Daniel Cabrera).

Of course I hope they all breakout and or show that they absolutely have dominance in them most of the time.

[NJOriolesFan]

I think the onw thing that you will have hit on is that by October 2010 we will have a lot of questions answered to a point where we really know what is missing and what pieces we need.

RIGHT NOW, we don't know if Bell or Snyder will ever contribute. By October we will have a very good idea of how their AAA campaign and cup of coffee translate into long-term success.

The same can be said with Erbe, Arrietta and to a lesser degree Patton.

Many guys offensively will have their second or third years under their belt and we will have a good idea of whether they will progress or stagnate.

We may also be at a point where we can truly say that we have some surplus. RIGHT NOW, as much as we like what we saw out of Pie in the second half and Reimold in his rookie season, we can't really say with any degree of confidence that we have a surplus at OF/DH. As of now, there really is enough PT for all of them and there is no OFer pushing his way onto the Major League Roster.

I think Frobby is right. 2010 is all about understanding what we've got. That is why Atkins and Gonzalez and Millwood make sense and Delgado would make sense too. They are short term players that are only place holders for guys that we NEED 2010 to find out about at AAA. Because we will have injuries, as every team does, we will see Snyder and Bell and Patton and Arrietta and maybe Erbe at some point this year. Montanez will get his shot although he is more like an organizational guy than a prospect or anyone with real trade value.

We NEED to see start #40 in the Majors from Bergesen, Matusz and Tillman to get a good read on them. That will happen this year for all three of them. This is likely the most important season the Orioles will have had in the last 15 years to lay out the future of this franchise.

Maybe the Pickering, Minor, Ndungidi years or Matos, Bigbie, Majewski years had serious impact but the difference is that the guys we have now are not just the Orioles best prospects but they are some of baseball's best prospects. At least 10 or 11 (Matusz, Tillman, Arrietta, Erbe, Britton, Wieters, Snyder??, Bell, Pie, Jones, Reimold) of our players in Baltimore and Norfolk have appeared in some experts to 100 over the last two and a half years. That is significant. I don't think there is any point in the last 20 years we could have said that. And to go with that Roberts and Markakis are all-star caliber players. I'm very good with where things stand RIGHT NOW. And all Oriole fans should be.

When we had high hopes in the past we were only banking on the best our organization had to offer. Riley and Bedard were serious prospects. So was Markakis but not a lot of our other young guys were all that highly touted by the experts. I know experts aren't always right. But they are right more often than the fan of a specific team.

[bird watcher]

Same story, different year.

Yeah but next year it will literally come true!

We are bat shopping now baby!!!

[JTrea81]

I've been thinking about what the team's situation will be like next winter, and what challenges they will be facing.

Pitching

Millwood: hopefully he will have done well enough in 2010 to earn Type A status, and the team can offer him arbitration and either retain him or get draft picks.

Guthrie: if he has a pretty strong rebound, he'll be two years away from free agency and pretty attractive trade bait, especially if enough of the younger pitchers have come through.

Matusz/Tillman/Bergesen: hopefully they leave no doubt that they belong in the rotation and those are three spots we can just penciil in for the following 5 seasons.

Hernandez/Berken: you hope they settle in as useful bullpen pieces, and/or prove capable of earning a back of the rotation spot if someone else is injured or falters.

Arrieta/Erbe: by the end of the year, their minor league apprenticeships are over, and perhaps (especially in Arrieta's case) they've had some chance to show what they can do at the major league level.

Britton: you hope he has a successful AA campaign, perhaps earning a promotion to Norfolk at mid-season or a little later, making him a candidate to contribute at the major league level some time in 2011.

Patton: he has either come back stronger, in whcih case he could have a major league role sometime in 2010, or he really hasn't progressed much, in which case you can pretty much write him off as a significant asset after the 2010 season.

That is a ton of information we are going to have by the end of 2010, and we could be in a true position of strength by season's end, able to trade some pitching for other needs. I wouldn't have dealt any pitching this offseason, but next winter we may well be in a position to do so. Note I didn't address the pure bullpen guys, including Uehara. Certainly their seasons have an impact on next offseason, too, but I don't think it's as dramatic.

Hitting

Jones: Does he stay healthy and continue improving at a good rate? If so, do we extend him next offseason?

Pie/Reimold: How much playing time do each of them get? Do they both build on what they accomplished in 2009, or do they regress? If both of them have good showings and Jones does as well, do we move one of them next winter?

Scott: can he avoid the steakiness that has plagued him? Will he be on the roster next October? He's probably the biggest candidate for a trade before then.

Shortstop: what are we doing here? Can we trade for a young, long term piece, or find a veteran with a solid glove but a much better bat than Izzy?

Bell/Snyder: much like Arrieta and Erbe, by the end of 2010 their minor league apprenticeships are over, hopefully they have gotten some significant major league exposure and the team needs to decide whether to commit to giving them major playing time in 2011.

Atkins: does he do enough in 2010 to justify exercising his option? Is he trade bait? Has he done enough to cause doubt whether he deserves to start in 2011 over either Snyder or Bell?

Again, that's a lot of information to take in. I should add that the minor league performances of Joseph, Waring, and Florimon also bear watching.

I think you will see the O's have a very active winter next year. I could see one or two pretty major trades going down, with real talent flowing both directions so the O's can eliminate some surpluses and shore up their weaknesses. I think the O's will be in a much better position to make those kinds of moves next winter, when a lot of the questions posed above are answered.

IMO there will be fewer players available for trade because more teams will have payroll room and will be able to keep their players and also trade for salary dumps.

And players like Fielder, Gonzalez will be one year rentals if they haven't been traded by then and won't sign extensions because they are so close to FA.

And the FA class that wil be available to us for bats will consist of a declining 35 year old Lee and 33 year old Pena for which we wil have to surrender a 2nd or possible 1st round pick to sign and neither will make us competitive enough by themselves.

And you still won't know what you have with Bell and Snyder because they'll only get 3 months of ABs and will need another year before you can determine if they'll reach their potential.

If Andy doesn't do anything major this offseason it's likely no playoffs in 2011 barring a miracle...

[Sports Guy]

Agreed. I've been hearing about this "next winter" for quite some time now. :scratchchinhmm:

Don't get me wrong, the young talent this team has to have everyone excited and we should be in better position next offseason.

But these promises of next offseason being our offseason are false IMO.

Can we see them actually do something before we declare every offseason as "our offseason"!!!!?