The team's situation next winter will be very different

[Hank Scorpio]

If I were him I'd be coy, too. The error bars are probably +/- 10 wins (or more). The Mets were a serious contender last year, then they had, what, three potential HOFer miss significant parts of the year with injuries?

I'd say just what MacPhail has - he's building the best organization he can, as quickly as is prudent. Absolute proclamations set yourself up for failure.

But satiate message boards.

[Bradysburns]

I still say there is a chance that things become MORE "iffy". Look at Markakis and or Guthrie for example (especially Markakis). Who are they? They have been in the league for a while now and the significant dip they took last year leaves me wondering?

I don[t believe we will get definitive answers about most of the young guys next year. What if Tillman and Matusz pitch to a 4.90 ERA? Bust? Still young and learning? Do we have answers then?

How about if Jones hits to .770 OPS? Or Markakis .830? Those are the situations I fear. Middle of the road production where we are all left hoping for the breakout (think Daniel Cabrera).

Of course I hope they all breakout and or show that they absolutely have dominance in them most of the time.

I dunno. I am sure by some statistical measures Markakis had a "down year" - but playing under a high-pressure new contract, on a terrible team, he managed 100-plus RBIs. And like a .293 average? I would say that "who is he" would be answered by: "An excellent baseball player." His power numbers weren't horrible, actually. Although I would expect serious improvement this year... HRs in the 25-30 range.

[CSB Jack]

I believe he was pretty cavalier about his intention to be a bat shopper this offseason as well. Barring a major addition via trade, I will bet he regrets setting that expectation.

There's a difference between shopping and buying. And different styles of shopping. For instance, when some guys need a new suit they go to Brooks Brothers. Other guys might go to Men's Wearhouse, see what's available, look for the right combination of style, fit, and color and not worry too much about price, but don't completely ignore it either. Other guys are looking to see what's on sale at JC Penney's. The Yankees and Red Sox are in the first two categories. The Orioles at present seem to be in the latter. My hope is that AM is at least looking at Men's Wearhouse even if he's still trying to use his coupons and take advantage of sale prices. Sometimes you can shop without buying anything at all when you decide that there's nothing available that fits your requirements of quality, style, fit, and budget.

But with five weeks or so till ST I don't think that AM is finished shopping yet. He said he'd be shopping for bats, he didn't say he was going to buy the top of the line model or that price was irrelevant.

[Bradysburns]

Yes, I'd say I agree with this. Of course, we'll need to see exactly what the landscape is, i.e. whether it appears there are good in-house long term solutions everywhere except SS, or whether it has become apparent that some of our other in-house solutions aren't panning out as well as we hoped, or are further away than hoped.

At SS... what if Givens has a breakout year at low A ball? What if he jumps to Frederick this year, with success? Then you might be thinking about a stopgap for 2011! That'd be nice.

[El Gordo]

I've been thinking about what the team's situation will be like next winter, and what challenges they will be facing.

Pitching

Millwood: hopefully he will have done well enough in 2010 to earn Type A status, and the team can offer him arbitration and either retain him or get draft picks.

Guthrie: if he has a pretty strong rebound, he'll be two years away from free agency and pretty attractive trade bait, especially if enough of the younger pitchers have come through.

Matusz/Tillman/Bergesen: hopefully they leave no doubt that they belong in the rotation and those are three spots we can just penciil in for the following 5 seasons.

Hernandez/Berken: you hope they settle in as useful bullpen pieces, and/or prove capable of earning a back of the rotation spot if someone else is injured or falters.

Arrieta/Erbe: by the end of the year, their minor league apprenticeships are over, and perhaps (especially in Arrieta's case) they've had some chance to show what they can do at the major league level.

Britton: you hope he has a successful AA campaign, perhaps earning a promotion to Norfolk at mid-season or a little later, making him a candidate to contribute at the major league level some time in 2011.

Patton: he has either come back stronger, in whcih case he could have a major league role sometime in 2010, or he really hasn't progressed much, in which case you can pretty much write him off as a significant asset after the 2010 season.

That is a ton of information we are going to have by the end of 2010, and we could be in a true position of strength by season's end, able to trade some pitching for other needs. I wouldn't have dealt any pitching this offseason, but next winter we may well be in a position to do so. Note I didn't address the pure bullpen guys, including Uehara. Certainly their seasons have an impact on next offseason, too, but I don't think it's as dramatic.

Hitting

Jones: Does he stay healthy and continue improving at a good rate? If so, do we extend him next offseason?

Pie/Reimold: How much playing time do each of them get? Do they both build on what they accomplished in 2009, or do they regress? If both of them have good showings and Jones does as well, do we move one of them next winter?

Scott: can he avoid the steakiness that has plagued him? Will he be on the roster next October? He's probably the biggest candidate for a trade before then.

Shortstop: what are we doing here? Can we trade for a young, long term piece, or find a veteran with a solid glove but a much better bat than Izzy?

Bell/Snyder: much like Arrieta and Erbe, by the end of 2010 their minor league apprenticeships are over, hopefully they have gotten some significant major league exposure and the team needs to decide whether to commit to giving them major playing time in 2011.

Atkins: does he do enough in 2010 to justify exercising his option? Is he trade bait? Has he done enough to cause doubt whether he deserves to start in 2011 over either Snyder or Bell?

Again, that's a lot of information to take in. I should add that the minor league performances of Joseph, Waring, and Florimon also bear watching.

I think you will see the O's have a very active winter next year. I could see one or two pretty major trades going down, with real talent flowing both directions so the O's can eliminate some surpluses and shore up their weaknesses. I think the O's will be in a much better position to make those kinds of moves next winter, when a lot of the questions posed above are answered.

I completely agree. I think enough of our SP will progress, that we will be in a position to trade some of it for a SS and other pieces we may need. Also I think there's a good chance we have a surplus of OF bats that could be moved.

[El Gordo]

At SS... what if Givens has a breakout year at low A ball? What if he jumps to Frederick this year, with success? Then you might be thinking about a stopgap for 2011! That'd be nice.

I think you will be talking about a stop gap regardless. The only ML ready SS I see available in trade are Nelson and Brignac The better ones like Dee Gordon or Hak Ju Lee, are several years away.

[mikezpen]

They'd better make a trade or two. The free agent market's shot.

[olehippi]

IMO there will be fewer players available for trade because more teams will have payroll room and will be able to keep their players and also trade for salary dumps.

And players like Fielder, Gonzalez will be one year rentals if they haven't been traded by then and won't sign extensions because they are so close to FA.

And the FA class that wil be available to us for bats will consist of a declining 35 year old Lee and 33 year old Pena for which we wil have to surrender a 2nd or possible 1st round pick to sign and neither will make us competitive enough by themselves.

And you still won't know what you have with Bell and Snyder because they'll only get 3 months of ABs and will need another year before you can determine if they'll reach their potential.

If Andy doesn't do anything major this offseason it's likely no playoffs in 2011 barring a miracle...

You are so tuned into the negative that you wouldn't see the positive if it hit you in the face. You refuse to believe that building a contending team can't be done in one year, or to accept the fact that it takes more that a few years to do it the right way so it will last.

Do you honestly believe we are likely to be a playoff caliber team by 2011? It's possible, of course, but even if we spent all the money you have suggested, and signed all the players that you have proposed, it would still be very unlikely.

Why? Because the supporting cast of players like Weiters, Matusz, Tillman, Snyder, and Bell -- the guys we've growing down on the farm -- are still learning and likely won't have reached their full potential by 2011. Or are you proposing that we trade all of them for seasoned players so we can make a one year run at the playoffs and hope we get lucky?

What is a realistic hope IMO is that we improve enough over the next two years to make us legitimate contenders for 2012 and beyond.

[bird watcher]

That impact talents need to be brought in from outside to augment a probably average core. If Jones and Markakis and Reimold are just ok this year, then you bring in a star to help them, you're that much better off if some of them have a breakout in 2011.

You'll certainly know a lot more if Snyder and Bell have .730 OPSes in Norfolk, or if Arrieta blows out a UCL.

If the approach to finding out those guys are average is going to be bringing in impact talent then why wait? Couldn't you say the same thing now? "We will be that much better if they breakout in 2010"?

I do understand that AM felt like there hasn't been anything reasonable available this offseason. I just don't see that changing next year.

I agree that having injuries will give an absolute answer. But if we aren't going all in now because we are waiting for breakouts from younger guys then why would we go all in next year if we don't get that breakout do to injuries?

[Stotle]

At SS... what if Givens has a breakout year at low A ball? What if he jumps to Frederick this year, with success? Then you might be thinking about a stopgap for 2011! That'd be nice.

Maybe someone will walk into my office today and give me a check for $450,000! That'd be nice.

[hoosiers]

I appreciate the patience advocated by some (and the path AM appears to be taking), but at some point you have to start swimming in the adult pool - start signing better FAs and making trades.

IMO, this team needs a TOR pitcher (could be Bedard, but won't know that for a while) and two plus bats between 1B/3B/SS. Bell and Snyder could be up in May/June, but we are not going to compete solely from the farm.

My hope this offseason was, at a minimum, to obtain at least one above average LT solution at ToR SP, 1B, 3B and SS. Still waiting to see if that hope will come true.

[Frobby]

You are so tuned into the negative that you wouldn't see the positive if it hit you in the face. You refuse to believe that building a contending team can't be done in one year, or to accept the fact that it takes more that a few years to do it the right way so it will last.

Do you honestly believe we are likely to be a playoff caliber team by 2011? It's possible, of course, but even if we spent all the money you have suggested, and signed all the players that you have proposed, it would still be very unlikely.

Why? Because the supporting cast of players like Weiters, Matusz, Tillman, Snyder, and Bell -- the guys we've growing down on the farm -- are still learning and likely won't have reached their full potential by 2011. Or are you proposing that we trade all of them for seasoned players so we can make a one year run at the playoffs and hope we get lucky?

What is a realistic hope IMO is that we improve enough over the next two years to make us legitimate contenders for 2012 and beyond.

I think we should be aspiring to be a playoff contender in 2011, just not at the price of jeopardizing long-term success in 2012-15. But ask this question again after 2010 is over. If we've won 85 games at the end of this year, that's one thing; if we've won 75, that's something else.

[jmmarvel]

What he has been coy about is when specifically the fans can expect the Orioles to have a winning team.

Kind of hard to give an exact date for maturation. When you're stocked in the minors, it's pretty likely that you'll have some guys pan out. But to my recolection, there has yet to be an expert that can predict when a guy will mature enough to be a difference maker.

These "wait for development" years suck. I agree. No one in the stands or on this site enjoys watching us lose 98 games. But the fact of the matter is, we aren't going to be a contender without building a team from within. This means stockpiling prospects (done) and waiting to see which ones will produce in the majors (now). AM isn't going to give some arbitrary date for when we will be competitive. He can't. No one can. Until then, lets just enjoy our cheap seats and our ability to buy a ticket for any game, even 5 minutes before it starts

[DrungoHazewood]

You are so tuned into the negative that you wouldn't see the positive if it hit you in the face. You refuse to believe that building a contending team can't be done in one year, or to accept the fact that it takes more that a few years to do it the right way so it will last.

Do you honestly believe we are likely to be a playoff caliber team by 2011? It's possible, of course, but even if we spent all the money you have suggested, and signed all the players that you have proposed, it would still be very unlikely.

Why? Because the supporting cast of players like Weiters, Matusz, Tillman, Snyder, and Bell -- the guys we've growing down on the farm -- are still learning and likely won't have reached their full potential by 2011. Or are you proposing that we trade all of them for seasoned players so we can make a one year run at the playoffs and hope we get lucky?

What is a realistic hope IMO is that we improve enough over the next two years to make us legitimate contenders for 2012 and beyond.

If the O's aren't realistic contenders in 2011 I'll be disappointed. They probably won't be favorites, but something will have gone seriously wrong if they're going into 2011 projected to win 80 games.

[DrungoHazewood]

If the approach to finding out those guys are average is going to be bringing in impact talent then why wait? Couldn't you say the same thing now? "We will be that much better if they breakout in 2010"?

I do understand that AM felt like there hasn't been anything reasonable available this offseason. I just don't see that changing next year.

I agree that having injuries will give an absolute answer. But if we aren't going all in now because we are waiting for breakouts from younger guys then why would we go all in next year if we don't get that breakout do to injuries?

The difference is in timing. That BP article I quoted a few days ago spells it out - I'm paraphrasing, these numbers aren't exact, but recent free agent signings typically lose 10% or 15% of their value in year 2, but more like 50% by year three. Almost all free agents are in the midst of their post-30 decline years. If you sign a 30-year-old guy today to compete in 2-3 years you'll likely be disappointed. A large majority of free agents will never be better than the day you sign them.