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The Great Tillman Debate

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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Maybe everyone knows this, but I'm not seeing it in the general discussion. There is a chance that Tillman isn't going to ever be a command guy, and command isn't something that can always be "sorted out". It also isn't something that necessarily prevents a pitcher from being a successful Major Leaguer if the quality of stuff is there (which it is for Tillman).

Tillman's stuff is not so electric that he can get away with sketchy command. His fastball is a decent pitch, but it doesn't have a ton of run or sink so he needs to spot it well. His curveball is his best pitch but some have argued that batters pick it up well and if he's not getting over for strikes, they are ignoring it.

When a guy is not doing these things effectively, he should not be in the big leagues when there are better options. I'm a firm believer it's a lot easier to get a guy to work on some things in the minors then it is in the majors. Too much pressure to perform in the big leagues.

Either way, if Tillman was a throwing 96-97 MPH with an electric fastball but command was an issue it would be different. Tillman is a 91-94 guy with some run, but it's not an electric pitch. If he doesn't gain command, then he may have to be converted into a bullpen guy to see if he throws harder that way or his ceiling becomes a 4th/5th starter due to the fact his pitch counts will be high.

I believe players can gain more command as their body mature and I believe Tillman will one of those guys. He has the aptitude, he just needs more experience. As long as we're going with guys like David Hernandez instead of the Adam Eaton's of the world, I'm fine with Tillman learning that command in the minors.

Why eat up service time and arbitration clock time while you are still learning to pitch?

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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No, I just know what i am talking about...you don't.

He doesn't have excellent stuff right now..at least not consistently. I don't think you will find one person who agrees he consistently has excellent stuff.

BTW, I should be using the term great, not excellent..Ty used the term great.

Tillman's stuff isn't great..not yet at least.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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I don't see how Tillman will develop dominating AAA hitters again. He needs to be facing major league hitters.

My original response was to someone saying Guthrie has a proven track record of command while Tillman does not, I was pointing out that that isn't exactly true.

If Tillman was allowed to just go down to AAA and throw high fastballs and breaking balls in the dirt while having success then I would agree with you. But the fact is the Orioles have a very good pitching coach in Mike Griffin who had Tillman in Bowie and Norfolk, so I doubt they will just let him dominate AAA hitters with stuff that will not work in the big leagues.

They will work on very specific things and if Tillman starts to show his command has improved, I'm sure you will see him back in the big league soon enough.

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TyCobb Perennial All-Star

TyCobb

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No, I just know what i am talking about...you don't.

He doesn't have excellent stuff right now..at least not consistently. I don't think you will find one person who agrees he consistently has excellent stuff.

You actually believe you can judge stuff better than a PITCHf/x? I believe they are accurate under 1/2 inch to the exact location of the ball.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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If he doesn't gain command, then he may have to be converted into a bullpen guy to see if he throws harder that way or his ceiling becomes a 4th/5th starter due to the fact his pitch counts will be high.

Tillman needs to be traded long before this happens. I just hope we haven't missed or will miss our window to do so by waiting for him to develop.

MCab has shown us today that he was worth giving up Tillman for in a package if that could have ever been on the table...

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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Tillman needs to be traded long before this happens. I just hope we haven't missed or will miss our window to do so by waiting for him to develop.

MCab has shown us today that he was worth giving up Tillman for if that could have ever been on the table...

This thread was an excellent discussion until this tripe came along.

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Mackus Hangout Grand Counsel

Mackus

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Why eat up service time and arbitration clock time while you are still learning to pitch?
These concerns are fairly irrelevant when it comes to Tillman.

We would have to leave him down until the middle of June to gain an extra year of service (assuming he spends no more time in the minors in the future). The arbitration clock is of little concern, he won't be a Super-2 after his 2nd full year because he only had 68 days of service time.

While I'm usually a big proponent of optioning a guy to save on the arb and service time clocks, none of those borders are really in play when it comes to Tillman unless he spends over two months in the minors this year, which I don't think even the people who are for optioning him to AAA expect him to approach this year.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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You actually believe you can judge stuff better than a PITCHf/x? I believe they are accurate under 1/2 inch to the exact location of the ball.

I think myself, Tony and anyone else with the ability to see and evaluate a pitcher have a better understanding if PitchFX says his stuff, in its current fashion, is GREAT.

Either you aren't intepreting the data correctly, define great in a different way or pitchFX is very flawed...I am not sure which it is but it is definitely one of those.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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This thread was an excellent discussion until this tripe came along.

It's a valid concern. We've seen the Orioles hang onto too many pitching prospects waiting for them to blossom into the pitcher that they were hyped to be.

We expected Tillman to be in the rotation this ST and he proved he wasn't ready. There is a chance he might not make it back as that #2 starter candidate as Tony pointed out.

So we might need to sell high, or we could very well have missed our opportunity to do so.

Tillman isn't the first Orioles prospect at a young age to flash that kind of potential and as we well know many of those never ultimately reached theirs.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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Oh. I thought this was the year were the games mattered.

I would have thought they have given the 5 starting spots to the best 5 starters.

Tillman is going to embarrass AAA hitters until DT takes one of the 5 starters out of that role.

I just hope Tillman learns something in his time at AAA (at least they can manage his IP count so he hits 185 ips total). Unfortunately, I don't think Tillman is going to get anything in return from facing AAA talent.

I would disagree with you. Guys who can't throw strikes or command their pitches around the zone will not dominate AAA either. If Tillman start to "embarrass" hitters, that would probably mean his command has improved and he's ready to come back up. The Orioles did not see that this spring nor did they see that in most of his start last year in the big leagues.

Perhaps we should all be happy that we don't have to keep young guys with poor command because we have enough depth to allow them to continue to develop.

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TGO Hangout Grand Counsel

TGO

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You actually believe you can judge stuff better than a PITCHf/x? I believe they are accurate under 1/2 inch to the exact location of the ball.

I love Pitch f/x but the graphs you posted are meaningless without comparing them to something.

My own take is Tillman has outstanding over-the-top-type stuff, by that I mean he gets huge amounts of vertical movement. He has that big 12-6 curve and a "rising" fastball. But he doesn't get even an average amount of horizontal movement on either pitch. Look at the pitch type averages. He has a good change up by that measure---good movement in both planes and a good amount of velocity separation from the fastball.

I do not think he necessarily has to change anything about his stuff. Moving to a more 3/4 slot might hurt more than help. But he does have to figure out how to harness the stuff he has to a better degree.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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You brought up Lincecum. It isn't like that guy hits his spots every time out and he got 2 Cys. He actually won a CY Young with a 3.33 BB/9. His first year he had a 4.0 BB/9 and was still able to have a 3.63 FIP.

When your stuff is as good as Tillman you pretty much just need to work both sides of the plate and not go down the middle belt high.

Lincecum throws three lights out electric pitches. Tillman has an above average curveball, and a slightly above average fastball and improving change.

Lincecum to Tillman is like talking apples to oranges.

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