Time for Bergesen to go back down (update: Bergesen sent down)

[LookinUp]

I believe that going from rattle-proof to easily-rattled is a big part of what's happening. Yesterday, he went from getting 3 GB-outs in a row to having no composure, and it happened very rapidly. The idea that all of that is just about margin of error on his pitches is an idea I don't buy. You can buy it if you want, that's fine with me, but I don't...

Like you, I didn't see the start. However, I'm hearing from Tony and others that it wasn't a matter of him being good, then getting upset and turning bad. I'm hearing that his stuff and location hasn't been the same this year, and that because of the type of pitcher he is, he's not able to get away with his less than optimal arsenal.

[tvz1997]

Did anybody else think his back looked stiff last night? He kept rocking his upper body forward and back as he walked around the mound and the middle of his frame looked very rigid during his delivery.

[RShack]

It is his shoulder, he knows it. I think it is not something that a short disabled stint will fix. But we shall see. I think the emotion is him seeing it all come crashing down.

Yikes.

Say it ain't so, Joe...

[backwardsk]

Did anybody else think his back looked stiff last night? He kept rocking his upper body forward and back as he walked around the mound and the middle of his frame looked very rigid during his delivery.

I did notice him doing that a lot. I don't know if he was trying to get loose or if it was a nervous tendancy. I didn't turn on the game until the 3rd.

[Stotle]

I didn't say it was that simple. I swear, why does everybody insist on turning things into phony issues of black-and-white?

I think keeping things as vague as possible may allow you to pretty much meander from point-to-point without locking yourself in.

My post was that his slim margin for error led a good number of people to point out that he likely wasn't going to sustain his 2009 success. That post was responded to with a "So you predicted he'd have mental issues?" and you agreed with that statement, going on to state his issues are internal and not with his pitching and that he'd be fine.

Is that a fair summation?

[Stotle]

I believe that going from rattle-proof to easily-rattled is a big part of what's happening. Yesterday, he went from getting 3 GB-outs in a row to having no composure, and it happened very rapidly. The idea that all of that is just about margin of error on his pitches is an idea I don't buy. You can buy it if you want, that's fine with me, but I don't...

I don't see how this could possibly be disputed, but it seems like you're looking for a good story line and "Bergie's stuff just isn't that great" certainly doesn't fit into a good story line. So, you can buy into some psychological issue that mysteriously appeared, perhaps some some inner-demon unique to the "underdog athlete that defies all odds", and await his triumphant return to BAL.

I really think it's all worlds simpler. His stuff isn't great, and when he's off he'll get hit. He's off and his stuff is in the fat of the zone and not dancing and he's getting hit. BAL wants to utilize AAA (since he has the option years) to let him sort it out there to see if he can regain the command he had in 2009. I'm not sure what's "not to buy" about that, but again I understand that some fans and sportswriters can't help but look for a storyline.

[wickedwitch]

I don't see how this could possibly be disputed, but it seems like you're looking for a good story line and "Bergie's stuff just isn't that great" certainly doesn't fit into a good story line. So, you can buy into some psychological issue that mysteriously appeared, perhaps some some inner-demon unique to the "underdog athlete that defies all odds", and await his triumphant return to BAL.

I really think it's all worlds simpler. His stuff isn't great, and when he's off he'll get hit. He's off and his stuff is in the fat of the zone and not dancing and he's getting hit. BAL wants to utilize AAA (since he has the option years) to let him sort it out there to see if he can regain the command he had in 2009. I'm not sure what's "not to buy" about that, but again I understand that some fans and sportswriters can't help but look for a storyline.

So you don't think him losing his composure had any effect at all?

[Stotle]

So you don't think him losing his composure had any effect at all?

I don't think it matters what causes him to not execute. When he doesn't execute, he isn't going to get through 6 IP against Major League hitters. Period. It isn't like he is sailing through starts, hits a bump and gets upset, then the whole world comes crashing down. He hasn't hit spots all year.

Could he be worse when he loses his composure? Sure. But "composed Bergesen" isn't getting people out this year with his pitch location -- end of story.

[Frobby]

Like you, I didn't see the start. However, I'm hearing from Tony and others that it wasn't a matter of him being good, then getting upset and turning bad. I'm hearing that his stuff and location hasn't been the same this year, and that because of the type of pitcher he is, he's not able to get away with his less than optimal arsenal.

Just a couple of data points:

- 65% strikes last year, 63% this year

- 18% of K's last year were caught looking; didn't catch a single batter looking in his 3 starts this year.

- 1.02 GB/FB last year; 0.48 this year.

- K rate down from 12.5% to 8.6%, BB rate up from 6.2% to 10.3%.

It's only 3 starts, each of which was less than 5 innings, so this data is not that meaningful, but it does point to the fact that Bergy wasn't as sharp.

[Lucky Jim]

Last night's start:

Pitch Type  	Avg Sp. Max Sp. Avg H.  Avg V.   #  	Strikes / %  	Swinging%  	Nibble  Time to PlateFF (FourSeam)	89.93	91.3	-7.65	7.16	16	12 / 75.00%	1 / 6.25% 	4.00	0.425SL (Slider)	81.91	83.7	 0.97	0.71	11	3 / 27.27%	0 / 0.00% 	9.01	0.463FS (Splitter)	83.50	83.5	-9.43	4.31	1	0 / 0.00%	0 / 0.00% 	10.14	0.455FT (TwoSeam)	89.05	91.6	-10.45	3.95	26	12 / 46.15%	1 / 3.85% 	5.72	0.429

His 8IP June 6, 2009 start also against the Mariners.

Pitch Type    Avg.   Max.  Avg H. Avg V.  #     Strike%       Swing%     Nibble Time to Plate FF (FourSeam) 89.22  91.4  -9.21   4.71  31   18 / 58.06%   3 / 9.68%   5.99   0.420 CH (Changeup) 82.44  87    -6.27   0.45   7    7 / 100.00%  0 / 0.00%   3.33   0.451 SL (Slider)   81.35  83.3   3.28   0.51  26   20 / 76.92%   5 / 19.23%  5.25  0.461 CU (Curveball)79.53  80.1   3.54  -3.41   3    3 / 100.00%  0 / 0.00%   5.10     0.471 FT (TwoSeam)  89.07  89.9 -10.21   1.21  23   19 / 82.61%   4 / 17.39%  4.49  0.422 

[waroriole]

LOL..now you are going to play stupid?

You always jump on people on here or national people and complain about them coming to conclusions without enough evidence, which is exactly what you did.

Again, complete double standard...Too bad your head is too far in the sand to see it.

You mean like, www.goofymlbtraderumors.com. I think I've heard that a few times.

[orioole28]

LOL..now you are going to play stupid?

You always jump on people on here or national people and complain about them coming to conclusions without enough evidence, which is exactly what you did.

Again, complete double standard...Too bad your head is too far in the sand to see it.

Look who talking!!!:scratchchinhmm:

[RShack]

I think keeping things as vague as possible may allow you to pretty much meander from point-to-point without locking yourself in.

My post was that his slim margin for error led a good number of people to point out that he likely wasn't going to sustain his 2009 success. That post was responded to with a "So you predicted he'd have mental issues?" and you agreed with that statement, going on to state his issues are internal and not with his pitching and that he'd be fine.

Is that a fair summation?

Not quite. I never said, and I did not mean to convey, that I somehow think Bergy is a head case or that whatever is going on has nothing to do with how he's throwing. If I conveyed that, mea culpa, it's not at all what I meant.

My only point was that I do not believe what is happening now is reducible to simply confirming what people said last year about his peripherals, so I think people who are patting themselves on the back about that are missing something important. I think there is more going on than just that. What it is, I don't know. Even if I saw the game, I'm sure I wouldn't know. I don't know enough about pitching to do TV-diagnosis. But whatever it is, it's something more than just having a small margin of error. I see where weams says it's his shoulder, says that Bergy knows it, and says he thinks the composure thing is secondary to Bergy seeing his own wheels come off. I don't know what weams is privy to, but I do not blow off things that weams says (unless he's just goofing around, and this was not him just goofing around).

Whatever it is, I just hope it's fixable. I hope this not just for the O's but also for Bergy the man. I'm confident that he can fix the composure part. Based on what he did last year, I think the guy is a soldier. Whatever else it might be, I have no idea, nor do I know what it takes to fix it. I am quite sure that neither DT nor RK would treat the decision to send him down like a little thing. If they decided that's what's best, it's fine with me. I am 100% sure that they have more information and more knowledge than I do.

[Stotle]

Not quite. I never said, and I did not mean to convey, that I somehow think Bergy is a head case or that whatever is going on has nothing to do with how he's throwing. If I conveyed that, mea culpa, it's not at all what I meant.

My only point was that I do not believe what is happening now is reducible to simply confirming what people said last year about his peripherals, so I think people who are patting themselves on the back about that are missing something important. I think there is more going on than just that. What it is, I don't know. Even if I saw the game, I'm sure I wouldn't know. I don't know enough about pitching to do TV-diagnosis. But whatever it is, it's something more than just having a small margin of error. I see where weams says it's his shoulder, says that Bergy knows it, and says he thinks the composure thing is secondary to Bergy seeing his own wheels come off. I don't know what weams is privy to, but I do not blow off things that weams says (unless he's just goofing around, and this was not him just goofing around).

Whatever it is, I just hope it's fixable. I hope this not just for the O's but also for Bergy the man. I'm confident that he can fix the composure part. Based on what he did last year, I think the guy is a soldier. Whatever else it might be, I have no idea, nor do I know what it takes to fix it. I am quite sure that neither DT nor RK would treat the decision to send him down like a little thing. If they decided that's what's best, it's fine with me. I am 100% sure that they have more information and more knowledge than I do.

I think where you are missing my (and perhaps others') point is that the "margin for error" isn't the issue itself. Margin for error is what magnifies "the issue" to the point that mechanics, release point, command, etc. can cause him to quickly go from effective to ineffective. So, his small margin of error could mean that a shoulder issue (even one of just some discomfort or unfamiliarity) could potentially drastically affect his level of effectiveness.

Lincecum can struggle with release point and went through starts last year where he was all over the place. But the quality of his pure stuff is such that he could miss in the middle of the plate with a fastball, or inadvertently bury a curveball, and not get lit up. If Lincy throws a curve or change, then follows-up with a fastball he leaves up over the plate, he still stands a fair chance of simply throwing it by the guy. That isn't available to Bergie (generally speaking).

EDIT -- Also, it's not about "being right" last year, but there were a fair number of posters that went beyond blasting the more conservative Bergesen supporters for stating it would be tough long-term for him to maintain that level of effectiveness with his stuff. There were very measured critiques of Bergie that were met with over-the-top accusations of people playing "expert" and having no idea what they were talking about, and that happens way too much around here, particularly if you are saying anything negative about a board favorite (let alone a rookie board favorite -- look out! ).

[Frobby]

I think where you are missing my (and perhaps others') point is that the "margin for error" isn't the issue itself. Margin for error is what magnifies "the issue" to the point that mechanics, release point, command, etc. can cause him to quickly go from effective to ineffective. So, his small margin of error could mean that a shoulder issue (even one of just some discomfort or unfamiliarity) could potentially drastically affect his level of effectiveness.

Although I generally defer to you on all things relating to mechanics or scouting a pitcher's skills, I'm not sure if I agree with (or fully understand) what you are saying here. It's not that helpful to give an example using Tim Lincecum. There are an awful lot of pitchers who don't throw harder than 90-92 mph. Do you think Bergesen has less margin for error than most of these guys, and if so, why?

My view is that Bergesen isn't a little off his game so far, he's a lot off. I don't think there are many pitchers who would have success if their command was as far off as Bergy's is right now. It's one thing to make occasional mistakes, like Guthrie did last year; it's another when every other pitch is going somewhere other than where you intended. That's where Bergy is right now, IMO.