BA's Jim Callis perspective on Bedard

[davearm]

Assuming a return to full health give me your top 5 cy young candidates heading into 2008.

1. Josh Beckett

2. Johan Santana

3. C.C. Sabathia

4. Erik Bedard

5. John Lackey

Clearly, assuming health, he will be a legit pre-season candidate going into 2008 based on his last two years.

Now tell us which of those 5 guys you can safely assume full health with.

[TonySoprano]

Name the GMs you've heard question the work ethic and conditioning of ARam.

Just fill in the blanks for us.

GM #1: _____________

GM #2: _____________

GM #3: _____________

You can't talk this nonsensical junk without backing it up.

Show me a newspaper article that actually lists a name instead of e.g. a "national league executive" and then maybe your challenge could be met.

[davearm]

Show me a newspaper article that actually lists a name instead of e.g. a "national league executive" and then maybe your challenge could be met.

Newspapers? I don't recall hearing any mention of newspapers.

SG has "heard some GM's and scouts question the work ethic and conditioning of ARam."

I'm curious which GMs he's heard from.

[TonySoprano]

Newspapers? I don't recall hearing any mention of newspapers.

SG has "heard some GM's and scouts question the work ethic and conditioning of ARam."

I'm curious which GMs he's heard from.

You're being absurd in your challenge. He didn't say he talked to the GMs. It was questioned in the past and reported. I did a quick search and this came up

Manager Dusty Baker may have to work his motivational magic on Ramirez, whose work ethic has been questioned. In 2001, he batted .300 with 34 home runs and 112 RBIs, but he hasn't shown that kind of production since.

Source - Tribune, Jul 2003

If you search Aramis Ramirez, and work ethic it comes up in other places also.

[davearm]

You're being absurd in your challenge. He didn't say he talked to the GMs. It was questioned in the past and reported. I did a quick search and this came up

Source - Tribune, Jul 2003

If you search Aramis Ramirez, and work ethic it comes up in other places also.

LOL, so now we're citing articles that are over 4 years old, that reference statistics that are now 6 years old.

Since you apparently missed it, Ramirez has now "shown that kind of production" for 4 straight years.

And still no trace of an actual GM supporting this fecal matter.

[theobird]

LOL, so now we're citing articles that are over 4 years old, that reference statistics that are now 6 years old.

Since you apparently missed it, Ramirez has now "shown that kind of production" for 4 straight years.

And still no trace of an actual GM supporting this fecal matter.

Dave, obviously salivating to get Bedard in the fold of his beloved Cubbies, is now red faced and slathering over the qualifications of his superstar 3b he wants desperately to unload in an attempt to aquire Bedard. Yeah, your guys O.K. My guy is HOF bound. Lets trade!

[Sports Guy]

Wow, you're very high on Shields and Kazmir. Kazmir definitely has the stuff but he still has the problem that Bedard had a couple years ago. He has 100 pitches after 5 to 5 1/2 innings every other start it seems because he nibbles and doesn't attack enough. If he eliminates that issue, look out because his stuff is nasty. Shields is a good pitcher, but I don't think he is quite in that league. I'd put him at an adequate #2 starter as a projection.

Shields is pretty damn good.....THis year, he threw 215 innings and had a sub 4 ERA..He turns 26 in December.

His K rate was just under 8 but look at his BB and command rate!!! Walk rate of 1.5 and a command rate of 5.11!!! That is incredible...I wonder if any starter had a better command rate than him this year??(1970, i am sure you know).

The only downside to him is he gives up the homer...However, with a terrible defense behind him, he still managed to give up less than a hit per IP and with his great BB rate, he probably gives up a lot of solo homers.

He could stand to be more of a GB pitcher to reduce his homers...If he can do that, there is every reason to think he could be a top 10 pitcher.

[davearm]

Dave, obviously salivating to get Bedard in the fold of his beloved Cubbies, is now red faced and slathering over the qualifications of his superstar 3b he wants desperately to unload in an attempt to aquire Bedard. Yeah, your guys O.K. My guy is HOF bound. Lets trade!

LOL, you must be new here.

Suffice it to say I'm not on the Bedard bandwagon.

[TonySoprano]

LOL, so now we're citing articles that are over 4 years old, that reference statistics that are now 6 years old.

Since you apparently missed it, Ramirez has now "shown that kind of production" for 4 straight years.

And still no trace of an actual GM supporting this fecal matter.

I said it was a quick search, meaning I threw out the first article I found, literally in about two minutes. It wasn't intended to be the end to the argument. If I decided to spin my wheels and look for another article, you'd find a way to dismiss it because it wouldn't actually cite a GM's name, let alone five.

Here's a challenge for you, show me anything in writing where a GM, by name, openly criticizes another team's player, and I'm not talking about single game incidents.

[OrioleWay27]

You have to keep in mind that I'm not shy about making bold predictions.

Through about May I agreed with you, but Kazmir seemed to change his approach and/or learned how to consistently throw strikes.

I broke down his season into thirds of 11, 11, and 12 starts. Check out these progressions:

RA	K%	BB%	K/BB	IP/ ST	BF/ST	BF/IP	Str%	P / ST	P / IP	P / BF4.64	0.222	0.111	2.00	6.00	26.18	4.36	0.616	107.18	17.86	4.094.50	0.245	0.116	2.12	6.00	26.73	4.45	0.632	110.09	18.35	4.122.89	0.338	0.075	4.48	6.22	25.42	4.08	0.658	101.58	16.33	4.00

Check out the big improvement in RA over his last third.

The next three columns show his improvement in terms of Ks and BBs. His K% improved by over 50% while his BB% dropped by over 30% from the first third to the last third. Check out the improvement in K/BB as the season progressed.

So what was the result?

He was able to get more IP per start, while cutting down on the number of batters faced per start, and facing fewer batters per IP.

He threw a strike 66% of the time over the last third of the season (vice a league average of 63%). This helped lead to fewer pitches thrown per start, and fewer pitches per IP (keeping in mind he was now working longer in games).

It is generally accepted that pitchers with higher K-Rates will throw more pitches per batter faced than those with lower K-Rates. Comparing his first 1/3 with his last 1/3, Kazmir improved his K-Rate from 8.73 to 12.42 while actually lower his average number of pitches thrown per batter faced. That's a quite a feat.

That tells me he has cut back on the nibbling. One more piece of evidence on this. Last year he threw a strike on 0-2 counts 54% of the time. This year he threw an 0-2 strike 61% of the time. Unfortunately, there isn't a source that breaks this stat down by month or half that I'm aware. However, I have the first half pitch data strikes for all pitchers saved on my laptop. I'll do a comparison of his pitch data later if you'd like.

Provided his last 1/3 of a season wasn't a fluke, I'm really like Kazmir's chances of having a great year next year. I'll go on record right now: if they can build a decent bullpen, the 2008 Rays will be the 2006 Tigers (speaking of bold predictions).

Shields made me look good this year as I had pointed to him prior to the season as a good breakout candidate. I'm a big James Shields fan.

Great breakdown.

Kazmir is probably the only young lefty in all of baseball I would rather have than Erik Bedard. His dramatic improvement this year can be traced to when he made an adjustment to his windup right after the all-star break. If he can sustain anywhere near that kind of production for a whole season, he would be an absolute monster.

As for Shields, he's a solid pitcher, but I'm not as sold on him. He was great for about a 6-week stretch, but he was facing the weakest part of the Rays schedule. I'd like him a lot more if he didn't have to pitch in the East. vatech's assessment as a #2 being his ceiling is closer to where I stand.

LOL, you must be new here.

Suffice it to say I'm not on the Bedard bandwagon.

Suffice to say you don't know much about good pitching.

[davearm]

I said it was a quick search, meaning I threw out the first article I found, literally in about two minutes. It wasn't intended to be the end to the argument. If I decided to spin my wheels and look for another article, you'd find a way to dismiss it because it wouldn't actually cite a GM's name, let alone five.

Here's a challenge for you, show me anything in writing where a GM, by name, openly criticizes another team's player, and I'm not talking about single game incidents.

Is this the friggin' Twilight Zone?

Nowhere did I say, imply, suggest or intimate that GMs are openly critical of another team's player.

In fact that's the very notion that I'm taking issue with here. So why in the heck are you challenging me to find something that I don't believe exists?

SportsGuy is the one making the claim that he has "heard some GM's and scouts question the work ethic and conditioning of ARam."

If he's making the claim, then the challenge is for him to substantiate it. Obviously he can't.

[davearm]

Suffice to say you don't know much about good pitching.

LOL, so anyone like me that doesn't buy the monumental OH hype that says Bedard is an bonafide ace, the best lefty in the game, a perennial Cy Young favorite, and all the rest doesn't know much about good pitching?

Okay then.

[davearm]

I agree that it is over the top to say you don't know much about pitching, but unless people such as Buster Olney, Peter Gammons, Tim Kirkjian, Ken Rosenthal, and the BBTN crew are secretly members of OH, then us OH Bedard fans aren't the only ones who believe:

1) Bedard is a bonafide ace.

2) At worst, one of the four or five best lefties in the game off the top of my head (I don't agree with your assessment that the OH collectively views him as the best lefty in the game) (Side note: it truly is amazing how many good LH starting pitchers there are right now)

3) He was most definitely in the Cy Young race through early August

If you don't believe the above is true, then I'd love to see you refute them.

Here is Bedard, IMO.

* Outstanding when he's on his game.

* Terrific breaking pitch complemented by a fastball with enough gas that you have to be ready for it, making the breaking pitch that much better.

* Susceptible to running up pitch counts by nibbling more than attacking. This seems to be much improved in 2007.

* Susceptible to runs of 6, 8, 10 (or more) starts where he just isn't on his game, and is average at best. He didn't have one of these in 2007, but he has every other year.

* Susceptible to missing time with injuries. This struck again in 2007.

These various "susceptibles" have held him back in the past. If you think he's over them, then a sky-high evaluation is understandable, and terms like "bonafide ace" are warranted.

I'm apparently more skeptical than most that these various issues are dead and gone.

[TonySoprano]

Is this the friggin' Twilight Zone?

Nowhere did I say, imply, suggest or intimate that GMs are openly critical of another team's player.

In fact that's the very notion that I'm taking issue with here. So why in the heck are you challenging me to find something that I don't believe exists?

SportsGuy is the one making the claim that he has "heard some GM's and scouts question the work ethic and conditioning of ARam."

If he's making the claim, then the challenge is for him to substantiate it. Obviously he can't.

You're the one that demanded him to name names which was patently ridiculous. Had you asked for a simple reference without all the posturing, than I would respect your argument more.

[davearm]

You're the one that demanded him to name names which was patently ridiculous. Had you asked for a simple reference without all the posturing, than I would respect your argument more.

No, what was ridiculous was his suggestion that he had names to name.

I just called him on his BS.