Strasburg out for up to 2 years... what we can learn from it.

[THELTSHOW]

Based on the fact they could have also passed on Strasburg and drafted Harper and Taillon in this draft.

Now Ackley would have been the best pick in that draft but the Nats could have also passed and let Strasburg go into his senior year, where he likely would have blown out his arm, and taken the #1 and #2 picks of the 2010 draft. Not to mention they would have kept bonuses down as well because Strasburg would have never got his $15 million.

They would have taken a huge PR hit, but it would have been the best LT option for the franchise. Taillon isn't as much of an injury risk as Strasburg was.

I guarantee had the Nats passed on Strasburg, people would be saying it was an extremely smart move on their part this season and probably would recognize it would have been a move that would have helped baseball.

This is completely incorrect. The nationals are a struggling franchise as is with the luster of their new stadium wearing off. Strasburg has created instant revenue and greatly expanded interest in the team even in the short time that he was up. If you're an organization with a less than dedicated fan base, you cannot afford to let a number 1 pick walk away. The idea of letting a pick not sign simply to get another pick the following year leaves a lot to chance. Let's say they even decided to take the PR hit and chose not to sign Strasburg, I would be willing to bet that Strasburg, off of TJ surgery, which is down to an exact science now and has an incredibly high success rate among collegiate pitches, will have a better chance of making an impact on a major league team than a high school pitcher. While the Nationals are a newer franchise, they need players through their system that will make a show on the big club now, (Storen). An uneducated fan base, as shown in Washington, doesn't understand the concept of true rebuilding, so guys like Chris Marrero and others who are a few years away are rarely mentioned when discussing the organization.

If Ackley were the Nats choice instead of Strasburg, it is likely he would have been pushed through the minors more quickly than his skill level dictated. Judging by his current numbers, starting him higher would have been deadly.

Point of all this is that injuries happen. Strasburg didn't tear his labrum or rotator cuff, injuries that are proven to be more difficult to fix and lead more directly to a loss in velocity and arm stamina. He hurt his elbow. While taking a year off from baseball for rehab isn't desired by anyone, TJ isn't the end of the world. Today, some scouts mention TJ as a positive for those coming out of high school or college to the draft, as these players have gotten a major surgery out of the way.

[jcarm]

Harper and Taillon together cost what they gave Strasburg. The Nats would have had the money to sign both.

As Jim Callis of Baseball America has said numerous times-you do not punt draft picks till the next year. It is ridiculous to say they would have not sighned Srasburg with the express intent to sighn Taillon the next year. Also, what makes you so sure that Taillon will not get hurt. It is amazing how people try to use hindsight to justify their opinions.

[SilentJames]

They were definitely right to pick strasburg. To say they were wrong in making the pick is ludicrous.

Injuries happen, but this is just horrible.

[hatepaste]

This just in...

The Red Sox shouldn't have sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees.

[jcarm]

This just in...

The Red Sox shouldn't have sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees.

Very, Very Funny:rofl:

[DrungoHazewood]

Just remember, Trea's philosophy is built on never drafting a pitcher until the "lower rounds". Let's say that means the 4th or 5th round. Basically what he's saying is that the risk he'd build into all pitchers is about 90-95% of a first-rounder's value. He'd take a first round talent that the market would price at $10M, and puts a 5th round pricetag on him at maybe a few hundred thousand.

For that to be reasonable you'd have to assume that drafted pitchers succeed at a rate that's a tiny, tiny percentage of position players, which is clearly not the case. They obviously get hurt more often, but this kind of valuation might be off by as much as an order of magnitude.

[VTmook213]

I'm too confused to continue in this thread.

I can't even follow the logic.

That's because there isn't any.

I thought the rule of thumb with TJ surgery is that the pitcher comes back with even more (!) velocity. Really scary (100+) if true with Strasburg.

I think I've read before that the reason pitchers usually gain velocity is that their arm was weak before they actually go under the knife due to wear and tear (that eventually forces surgery). When they come back, their arm/elbow/ligaments/whatever is back to normal strength, so they gain velocity. Really it's more of ... before they're at negative velocity (from their norm), and then after surgery they're at normal velocity. But I could misremember that.

---

This is sad news. I'm no fan of the Nats, but I enjoy baseball in general and this kid was really something special and enjoyable to watch pitch. I hope he comes back.

[byrdz]

Teams once passed on Lincecum because of red flags.

[Going Underground]

BTW, I wonder if Dibble still thinks he's a wimp?

Dibble is taking a few days off from MASN. I wonder why.:laughlol:

[Guest rochester]

Such a shame for the Nats and Strasburg...but you had to see this coming...Its not surprising.

Hopefully he can come back from it and not be Mark Prior.

And no, he wasn't rushed at all.

Agree 100% - this is a loss for baseball as a whole...

Dibble? :cussing: but typical

[osfan83]

BTW here's more about the "inverted W" and if you look at the names of the pitchers and the injury histories they've had, you can see the correlation.

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/RethinkingPitching/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html

I think we should stay far away from potential pitching prospects that have this delivery, especially first round draft picks.

Interesting read..I had not see that before. BTW I think I have read some from Mike Marshall before. I know he pitched for the Dodgers and Expos, doesn't he advocate more of a submarine style as a way to minimize injury potential.

[Going Underground]

Strasburg also made the Nat's an extra 3 million when he pitched. He was the new face of the franchise and Washington was going to build around him. The Nat's averaged an extra 13,000 fans per start when he pitched. Why would you not draft him? You can't predict injuries. In two years he still might be the best pitcher in baseball.

[lint06]

I don't like that Strasburg got hurt because I hate to see a guy with his potential go down. However, I kind of think it is a good thing if this keeps future teams from paying astronomical amounts of cash for unproven players.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't like that Strasburg got hurt because I hate to see a guy with his potential go down. However, I kind of think it is a good thing if this keeps future teams from paying astronomical amounts of cash for unproven players.

What do you mean by astronomical and unproven? His entire bonus and six-year salary wouldn't have paid for a couple of years of a middling free agent, and what exactly do you need to prove beyond the ability to throw 100 mph and have a curveball that breaks two feet?

[KurtCDavidson]

Anyone that criticizes the Nats for picking him due to being an injury risk is guilty of confirmation bias. The guy has already been worth 2.6 WAR - good for about $10.5MM in value. Couple in the attendance boost, TV ratings, merchandise sales...I bet the guy has been worth to close to his $15.1MM contract even if he NEVER throws another pitch in the major leagues.