Strasburg out for up to 2 years... what we can learn from it.

[weams]

It doesn't matter how long his contract's for, they've got him for 6 years of service time. He'll get <1 for this year, and 1 for 2011. So he'll be at 1 and some change heading into 2012. Meaning he'll still be under control for 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. His contract was a 4-year deal, which means his salaries are already negotiated for 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Starting in 2013 he'll be arbitration eligible until he becomes a free agent, unless they sign an extension. So his arbitration price for 2013 will be based on how well he pitches when he comes back in 2012.

Good info. Thanks. He was not on a MLB contract? Like Loewen?

[Mackus]

Good info. Thanks. He was not on a MLB contract? Like Loewen?

He is on an MLB contract. But all players that are drafted the team will have 6 (or 6+) years of service time. The guaranteed contract just means that the player is added to the 40-man right away and starts burning up his options right away, and as such would need to be placed on the 25-man roster sooner or risk being exposed to waivers than guys that sign minor league deals. The player isn't an automatic FA once those deals are up, they still need to accrue 6 years of service for that.

Teixeira signed an MLB deal with Texas which ran out after 2005, but he didn't have enough service time for free agency, so he was still under club control through the 2008 season.

[weams]

He is on an MLB contract. But all players that are drafted the team will have 6 (or 6+) years of service time. The guaranteed contract just means that the player is added to the 40-man right away and starts burning up his options right away, and as such would need to be placed on the 25-man roster sooner or risk being exposed to waivers than guys that sign minor league deals. The player isn't an automatic FA once those deals are up, they still need to accrue 6 years of service for that.

Teixeira signed an MLB deal with Texas which ran out after 2005, but he didn't have enough service time for free agency, so he was still under club control through the 2008 season.

Again, excellent info. I thought the clock still rolled while on a MLB disabled list since the injury occurred while on a MLB contract. I thought his service time has been rolling since he came up and will until he is optioned at the end of his rehab.

[Mackus]

Again, excellent info. I thought the clock still rolled while on a MLB disabled list since the injury occurred while on a MLB contract. I thought his service time has been rolling since he came up and will until he is optioned at the end of his rehab.

Yeah, the service time keeps rolling while on the MLB disabled list. Which is why he'll be at 1 and change after 2011 even though he's not going to pitch next year, not just the change that he accumulated this year (120 days or so).

[waroriole]

Yeah, the service time keeps rolling while on the MLB disabled list. Which is why he'll be at 1 and change after 2011 even though he's not going to pitch next year, not just the change that he accumulated this year (120 days or so).

Any chance they could option him before he goes on the DL? It would save a year of service time that they won't get from him. Might sound shady, but that's what you have to do when you deal with Boras.

[weams]

Any chance they could option him before he goes on the DL? It would save a year of service time that they won't get from him. Might sound shady, but that's what you have to do when you deal with Boras.

Not if the injury occurs while on a MLB roster.

[weams]

Yeah, the service time keeps rolling while on the MLB disabled list. Which is why he'll be at 1 and change after 2011 even though he's not going to pitch next year, not just the change that he accumulated this year (120 days or so).

You really know your stuff. Thanks again.

[Stotle]

I haven't read this whole thread, but the odds are very good that Strasburg has already provided more value than the other 2009 draftees will provide between 2010 and 2011. If he comes back in 2012, he's still in excellent position to be by far the most valuable pick out of that draft. Even if he is delayed some, and even if he comes back at (hypo) 80% effectiveness, he will be well worth the money he was given to come to Washington.

[Avsfan]

Trea, this is a new highlight, even in your playbook...well done there Einstein.

[BRob51]

BTW here's more about the "inverted W" and if you look at the names of the pitchers and the injury histories they've had, you can see the correlation.

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/RethinkingPitching/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html

I think we should stay far away from potential pitching prospects that have this delivery, especially first round draft picks.

Yeah, inverted W is generally bad, but some starters get away with it, or at least get past the first surgery and succeed, sometimes because, at least with TJ, the repaired tendon can withstand more strain. It's not a big deal with RPs, and pitchers with unorthodox arm slots have to create an inverted W, though if you're a submariner you're probably an RP anyway.

[BRob51]

I think I've read before that the reason pitchers usually gain velocity is that their arm was weak before they actually go under the knife due to wear and tear (that eventually forces surgery). When they come back, their arm/elbow/ligaments/whatever is back to normal strength, so they gain velocity. Really it's more of ... before they're at negative velocity (from their norm), and then after surgery they're at normal velocity. But I could misremember that.

In addition to that, the new ligament can withstand more strain because it usually comes from the knee, which is a thicker ligament.

[Cal Jr. Jr.]

On another note, why is the "inverted W" not just called an "M" type delivery?

[BRob51]

On another note, why is the "inverted W" not just called an "M" type delivery?

inverted w sounds more sciencey

[Stotle]

BTW here's more about the "inverted W" and if you look at the names of the pitchers and the injury histories they've had, you can see the correlation.

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/RethinkingPitching/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html

I think we should stay far away from potential pitching prospects that have this delivery, especially first round draft picks.

This isn't new info, and it says something that organizations have not latched on to this as a be-all ding for high-priced items.

[lint06]

What do you mean by astronomical and unproven? His entire bonus and six-year salary wouldn't have paid for a couple of years of a middling free agent, and what exactly do you need to prove beyond the ability to throw 100 mph and have a curveball that breaks two feet?

15 MM for a dude who had never thrown a major league pitch? Of course, I think it's all too much money for kids who haven't done squat in the Majors.