The Redemption of Andy MacPhail

[Sports Guy]

So, you're saying that not offering arbitration was stupid because there was a chance Koji might walk without the Orioles being comped. I understand that thought process. But there was also a chance (a good chance) that Koji and Pieper would have jumped all over the arbitration number of like, what... $6MM?

So at that point, AM probably looked at all the factors in play, the grey area that we all tend to dismiss around here, and figured he had a pretty good shot at re-upping him on a 1 year deal given his age and fragility.

Annnnnd, it looks like that's coming to fruition for about half of what Koji would have likely cost in arbitration, plus possibly performance incentives.

I too get tired of the meticulous penny pinching that goes on in our front office. I was very annoyed when they didn't offer him arbitration, but I figured there was probably some kind of thought behind it.

Looks like AM played this one correctly, IMO.

I wouldn't have risked Koji walking elsewhere for a few million bucks.

This is a team that has a terrible offer on the table for a reliever that's not even all that good.

To me, the few million wasn't worth it.

Now, if Koji gave them a gentleman's agreement that he would sign here for less money, fine.

I said from the beginning that the Orioles should have had an offer, like the one they signed him for, on the table before the arbtiration decision. If they did that and he indicated that he would sign it(but small details had to be worked out), then fine..I am ok with not offering arbitration.

But that is a lot of promises that had to be made and that's assuming the Orioles had the deal on the table.

I am also not convinced Koji gets as much in arbitration as some think.

[mweb]

In terms of this off-season, he's done a great job so far imo. The majority of this board was pushing for 3 moves this off-season, and we've gotten two of them at a lower cost than anticipated and we still have a chance at the third. Plus, even though I and most of us disagreed with his decision to not offer Koji arb, it turned out for the best.

As far as doing what it takes to make us a contender, well maybe he's not the right guy for that. We'll see, but lets be realistic and acknowledge how difficult of a task that is given our division.

Now some say he needs to make a big move to push us into that status, well before this off-season the timing was not right for that imo and it's questionable if it's right now. Even if it is right, what moves are or were out there that make sense for us? Beltre? Werth? AGon? Fielder? Crawford? Cliff Lee? Greinke? I'd say none of those would make sense given the cost it would have taken.

Upton is a guy that made sense, but the demands were likely extremely high given the fact that he has since been taken off the market.

So it's easy to say that AM needs to make big moves to put us over the top, but having an opportunity that makes sense given the cost would be helpful.

[Stotle]

So, you're saying that not offering arbitration was stupid because there was a chance Koji might walk without the Orioles being comped. I understand that thought process. But there was also a chance (a good chance) that Koji and Pieper would have jumped all over the arbitration number of like, what... $6MM?

So at that point, AM probably looked at all the factors in play, the grey area that we all tend to dismiss around here, and figured he had a pretty good shot at re-upping him on a 1 year deal given his age and fragility.

Annnnnd, it looks like that's coming to fruition for about half of what Koji would have likely cost in arbitration, plus possibly performance incentives.

I too get tired of the meticulous penny pinching that goes on in our front office. I was very annoyed when they didn't offer him arbitration, but I figured there was probably some kind of thought behind it.

Looks like AM played this one correctly, IMO.

I keep going back and forth. Even if Koji accepts arbitration, BAL and Koji could have worked out this exact same deal. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think there is a vesting option, yes? If negotiations head south he would have gotten more money for the year but he also would have soured BAL on keeping him around anymore after that.

In all honesty, this looks like a close call but one in which AM made the most reasonable move provided he was almost certain Koji wanted to stay in BAL. As long as he had a strong lead in re-signing him, the safety net of arbitration isn't a huge deal. I think there are fine arguments as to why BAL should have offered arbitration, but seeing how things played out I don't think it's a big deal one way or the other.

[Sports Guy]

I keep going back and forth. Even if Koji accepts arbitration, BAL and Koji could have worked out this exact same deal. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think there is a vesting option, yes? If negotiations head south he would have gotten more money for the year but he also would have soured BAL on keeping him around anymore after that.

In all honesty, this looks like a close call but one in which AM made the most reasonable move provided he was almost certain Koji wanted to stay in BAL. As long as he had a strong lead in re-signing him, the safety net of arbitration isn't a huge deal. I think there are fine arguments as to why BAL should have offered arbitration, but seeing how things played out I don't think it's a big deal one way or the other.

And you can make the argument that if things soured and he performed very well again, that he may have been worth a pick or 2 next offseason...And he wouldn't have agreed to arbitration and maybe having that pick or 2 next offseason would be better than having him on the team.

[Sports Guy]

I keep going back and forth. Even if Koji accepts arbitration, BAL and Koji could have worked out this exact same deal. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think there is a vesting option, yes? If negotiations head south he would have gotten more money for the year but he also would have soured BAL on keeping him around anymore after that.

In all honesty, this looks like a close call but one in which AM made the most reasonable move provided he was almost certain Koji wanted to stay in BAL. As long as he had a strong lead in re-signing him, the safety net of arbitration isn't a huge deal. I think there are fine arguments as to why BAL should have offered arbitration, but seeing how things played out I don't think it's a big deal one way or the other.

Things played out well...AM probably had a good read on the situation BUT he also got lucky that no other team swooped in with a better offer.

That has nothing to do with him reading things properly..That's just lucky..We valued him more than other teams.

Oh and the Millwood decision looks poor IMO...and that really hurts AM, at least for me, for this offseason. I don't think there is a chance in hell Millwood would have accepted and even if he had, they are looking to add his clone anyway, so we could have just kept him.

[El Gordo]

In terms of this off-season, he's done a great job so far imo. The majority of this board was pushing for 3 moves this off-season, and we've gotten two of them at a lower cost than anticipated and we still have a chance at the third. Plus, even though I and most of us disagreed with his decision to not offer Koji arb, it turned out for the best.

As far as doing what it takes to make us a contender, well maybe he's not the right guy for that. We'll see, but lets be realistic and acknowledge how difficult of a task that is given our division.

Now some say he needs to make a big move to push us into that status, well before this off-season the timing was not right for that imo and it's questionable if it's right now. Even if it is right, what moves are or were out there that make sense for us? Beltre? Werth? AGon? Fielder? Crawford? Cliff Lee? Greinke? I'd say none of those would make sense given the cost it would have taken.

Upton is a guy that made sense, but the demands were likely extremely high given the fact that he has since been taken off the market.

So it's easy to say that AM needs to make big moves to put us over the top, but having an opportunity that makes sense given the cost would be helpful.

This is very true, but when you are playing fantasy baseball, as Jimminy Cricket says, "anything your heart desires will come to you".:laughlol:

[carolinaoriole]

Andy Macphail has done a good job this offseason. I think that some folks can not see his faults while others can not see any good in his performance.

If he were to get this team in the world series next year there are some who would say that he has not really shown what he can do until the Orioles win multiple pennants and a few championships. And there are some who really believe that they should be running the team, and are probably amazed that the rest of us do not agree with them.

For me I want the Orioles to beat the Red Sox and Yankees and win the World Series and then I would like to see the entire team and fan base go to Ken Rosenthals house and say NA-NA-NA-NA-NA WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS YOU WERE WRONG NA-NA-NA-NA-NA. Wow even I have my delusions of grandeur!!!!!!!:2yay-thumb::smile11:

[Stotle]

And you can make the argument that if things soured and he performed very well again, that he may have been worth a pick or 2 next offseason...And he wouldn't have agreed to arbitration and maybe having that pick or 2 next offseason would be better than having him on the team.

This comes back to his desire to stay in BAL. If it really is a strong desire (because of comfort and familiarity, or whatever) then I'm not sure he would turn down arbitration. There is just no way for any of us to know how strongly Koji wanted to stay in BAL -- only the people involved in the contract discussions would have a good idea.

Things played out well...AM probably had a good read on the situation BUT he also got lucky that no other team swooped in with a better offer.

That has nothing to do with him reading things properly..That's just lucky..We valued him more than other teams.

Oh and the Millwood decision looks poor IMO...and that really hurts AM, at least for me, for this offseason. I don't think there is a chance in hell Millwood would have accepted and even if he had, they are looking to add his clone anyway, so we could have just kept him.

See above -- as I said earlier I think it comes down to how certain AM was that Koji wanted to stay in Baltimore.

What has happened to lead you to believe Milwood would have declined? I honestly don't know one way or the other.

[Three Run Homer]

Care to name them so I can have a laugh?

I can name at least four impact players available this offseason: Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke.

Maybe you don't like one of these players, or maybe you don't like the idea of giving someone a 7-year contract or having to surrender a lot of young talent in a trade. But the fact is, you need impact players to win pennants. Right now the Orioles don't have enough of them. And there's no evidence that Andy MacPhail is willing to do what it takes to bring an established impact player into the organization.

[LookinUp]

Nor do I think we need to go "all-in" this off-season. If we make a couple of bad deals, either trades or FA contracts, and our core doesn't develop the way we hope, we're in worlds of trouble.

At least being conservative and not making any crazy moves at this point allows us some flexibility as we see how the current team develops.

Ultimately, this is AM's biggest "pro" IMO. He hasn't (yet) made the big move, but he also hasn't put us in financial hell with bad contracts or in talent hell with bad young for old trades.

When all is said and done, I feel like he may have built a nice foundation upon which a new GM, and hopefully owner, will come in and make those 3-4 moves to put us over the top.

Of course, if Roy's teaser post is true, maybe AM has always been willing to make the big move, but he's just biding his time. We can hope.

[LookinUp]

It's also fair to note that AM wasn't just bad last offseason, he was unluckly.

He went cheap at 1B and 3B and signed Atkins and Tejada because we had players in waiting at both positions (Bell and Snyder). Well, those players players in waiting weren't ready to produce when the stop gaps crapped the bed.

He had a nice bullpen setup until Gonzo crapped the bed and got injured, Koji got injured (again) and JJ got injured.

Reimold's serious personal issues took one of the most promising bats out of the lineup. Pie's injury further delayed any potential production we might see from him.

Bergesen's offseason injury obviously severly limited him for the first 1/2 season +. Tillman's inconsistency was perplexing and somewhat unexpected. Matusz had a couple of seriously weak months...and one of the seemingly legit cavalry arms (Erbe) suffered a major injury.

Millwood underperformed relative to expectations.

Other young/prime guys almost universally underperformed relative to REASONABLE expectations (Wieters, Jones, Markakis).

And Roberts missed most of the year.

The negatives so outweighed the positives (Scott/Ohman/Berken before labrum). Really, the O's luck last year was worse than their talent.

[El Gordo]

I can name at least four impact players available this offseason: Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke.

Maybe you don't like one of these players, or maybe you don't like the idea of giving someone a 7-year contract or having to surrender a lot of young talent in a trade. But the fact is, you need impact players to win pennants. Right now the Orioles don't have enough of them. And there's no evidence that Andy MacPhail is willing to do what it takes to bring an established impact player into the organization.

Do you honestly believe that even if we did give up half our core to trade for him, AGonzo would have agreed to an extension, even though he has yet to do so with Boston? Are you really ready to give Crawford the 8/160 it would take to get him to think about B''more?. 8/200M for C.Lee? Jones,Tillman, and Avery seems possible for Greinke, and I would like to see them do that. Otherwise you are holding AM up to an impossible standard IMO. It may well be that only a magician(or SG) can get the O's to contend in the AL East, but it's still not fair to blame AM for not being a magician (when only SG is).:laughlol:

[mweb]

I can name at least four impact players available this offseason: Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke.

Maybe you don't like one of these players, or maybe you don't like the idea of giving someone a 7-year contract or having to surrender a lot of young talent in a trade. But the fact is, you need impact players to win pennants. Right now the Orioles don't have enough of them. And there's no evidence that Andy MacPhail is willing to do what it takes to bring an established impact player into the organization.

We could not afford to give up the young talent to get AGon and then on top of that give him a huge deal. Greinke likely doesn't make sense for the same reasons.

And you are right that I don't care to give out 7/150 + deals to guys like Crawford and Lee, both of whom I actually like a lot.

I do think AM could be more aggressive with going after some players and less risk-adverse in general, but I'm glad he hasn't done what it would take to land any of those guys.

I also think AM and the O's in general need to do a better job getting the impact players from our own system meaning more scouts, more and better international signings, and having more draft picks. So there is plenty to harp on him for, but failing to pay an enormous cost to land the guys you just mentioned isn't among them imo.

[LookinUp]

Do you honestly believe that even if we did give up half our core to trade for him, he would have agreed to an extension even though he has yet to do so with Boston? Are you really ready to give Crawford the 8/160 it would take to get him to think about B''more?. 8200M for C.Lee? Jones,Tillman, and Avery seems possible for Greinke, and I would like to see them do that. Otherwise you are holding AM up to an impossible standard IMO. It may well be that only a magician(or SG) can get the O's to contend but it's still not fair to blame AM for not being a magician (when only SG is).:laughlol:

I don't speak for SG, and I know he doesn't want to go back and forth with you, but this is only an impossible standard if you look at things in the vaccuum of one offseason.

The reason more people are in now mode than before is because he didn't make upgrades at all of these positions before.

[Sports Guy]

This comes back to his desire to stay in BAL. If it really is a strong desire (because of comfort and familiarity, or whatever) then I'm not sure he would turn down arbitration. There is just no way for any of us to know how strongly Koji wanted to stay in BAL -- only the people involved in the contract discussions would have a good idea.

See above -- as I said earlier I think it comes down to how certain AM was that Koji wanted to stay in Baltimore.

What has happened to lead you to believe Milwood would have declined? I honestly don't know one way or the other.

Well first of all, he said he wants to win, so I think that has a lot to do with it.

However, players like him are not getting big contracts. On top of that, I read that a lot of teams are interested in him.