Blockbuster brewing???

[davearm]

1 hr per 30 ab's equals 20 for a season, so I'm not sure how that is very little power.

He very may well just end up as a utility IF, but there is a chance he can be a solid starting SS, I don't see how that possibility can be ignored. PECOTA has Cedeno becoming about a 4 win player, and I would guess that would go up a little when it's updated. Not that good, but good enough to start if need be. Here's the final line in the last quote you posted: "The worst case scenerio in Cedeno, the Cubs have a utility infielder. While the best case scenerio is that we have our starting shortstop for years to come."

I don't think Tejada is worth more than one elite prospect and a young SS who could become our SS or could end up as just a UTIL IF. If he's worth more, it's not by that much more. As you've said, I'd look to the Dodgers and hope they look at Tejada as A 3rd base option, if they do, LaRoche and Hu would be a great return for Tejada.

That analysis lost all credibility with the whole "didn't show much power in AAA" drivel.

Cedeno slugged over .500 in both of his AAA seasons. SLG is the gold standard for measuring power, and .500 is obviously well above average.

And to think this guy covets guys like Hu and Lillibridge, guys that have shown even less power than Cedeno in the upper minors. It's become comical, really.

[djp200]

That analysis lost all credibility with the whole "didn't show much power in AAA" drivel.

Cedeno slugged over .500 in both of his AAA seasons. SLG is the gold standard for measuring power, and .500 is obviously well above average.

And to think this guy covets guys like Hu and Lillibridge, guys that have shown even less power than Cedeno in the upper minors. It's become comical, really.

Just out of curiosity--why do you bother posting here? A fair chunk of your posts deride the value of O's players or prospects. Another fair chunk of posts mocks the value system of O's fans on an O's message board. Another fair chunk of posts criticize posters on this board for undervaluing Cubs assets.

I agree that some posts on OH tend to go overboard with lopsided trade proposals. But this is a forum for O's fans-- it's expected that posters here would be overenthusiastic. You're basically doing the same thing (overvaluing your organization's assets and undervaluing another organization's assets) as many here and you're criticizing posters for doing it.

Are you just that afraid that your team will foolishly make a trade you'd hate to see them make? It's one thing to play devil's advocate or to offer an objective opinion but quite another to mock or criticize posters for being delusional.

[Tomkingsize]

Just out of curiosity--why do you bother posting here? A fair chunk of your posts deride the value of O's players or prospects. Another fair chunk of posts mocks the value system of O's fans on an O's message board. Another fair chunk of posts criticize posters on this board for undervaluing Cubs assets.

I agree that some posts on OH tend to go overboard with lopsided trade proposals. But this is a forum for O's fans-- it's expected that posters here would be overenthusiastic. You're basically doing the same thing (overvaluing your organization's assets and undervaluing another organization's assets) as many here and you're criticizing posters for doing it.

Are you just that afraid that your team will foolishly make a trade you'd hate to see them make? It's one thing to play devil's advocate or to offer an objective opinion but quite another to mock or criticize posters for being delusional.

Right on, man! I've stirred up my share of controversy so I didn't want to start something but I'm glad you said something.

[Sports Guy]

Cedeno's slugging was driven by his BA in AAA....His BA in AAA was driven by a very lucky BABIP.

[Say O!]

davearm - weighing relative values of players is normally a good judgement on trade equality. HOWEVER, you must balance that against supply and demand.

This offseason, there is little to be had in the FA market, and probably even less in the trade market. Just due to scarcity, Tejada's and Ramon's value MUST go up. Whether you agree or disagree with the premium placed on them, that is how the overall "market" will treat them.

And this holds true for O's fans discounting Ramon's value off a bad year. So what, outside of Posada, Ramon is the biggest fish out there. With limited quantity, auction values rise.

So don't be surprised if Tejada and Ramon fetch quite the package out there on the market. McPhail knows this, and will be smart about moving both of them.

[davearm]

Just out of curiosity--why do you bother posting here? A fair chunk of your posts deride the value of O's players or prospects. Another fair chunk of posts mocks the value system of O's fans on an O's message board. Another fair chunk of posts criticize posters on this board for undervaluing Cubs assets.

I agree that some posts on OH tend to go overboard with lopsided trade proposals. But this is a forum for O's fans-- it's expected that posters here would be overenthusiastic. You're basically doing the same thing (overvaluing your organization's assets and undervaluing another organization's assets) as many here and you're criticizing posters for doing it.

Are you just that afraid that your team will foolishly make a trade you'd hate to see them make? It's one thing to play devil's advocate or to offer an objective opinion but quite another to mock or criticize posters for being delusional.

Sports Guy loves to berate and condescend everyone who doesn't agree with his opinion, so when responding to his posts, I like to talk in a language he'll understand.

I think if you looked, you'd find I'm far more civil with anyone who is respectful of me and others.

[sorrycharlie]

I like it when davearm comes on. I think he gives good insights to how our players are viewed around the rest of the league, which is something that we often (as a group) lose sight of. Additionally, he's not as much of a homer as many many people, so I am not sure how much he overvalues the Cubs assets. Either way, it's a different look, which is appreciated by me, at least.

[theobird]

So basically 3 players who once had very high prospect ratings and have lost their luster in the past year for 2 over their prime players who have a lot of baggage.

I for one am not interested in Mathis or Santana. Mathis is overrated and let's up a good number of SBs (80%+/-).

LOL. So which is it? three prospects who have lost their luster, or two over the hill players with baggage? I can't tell by your post where you stand. Are the three prospects too much to ask for? Or, are we not getting enough back for our baggage carriers? Please, take a stand.

[Sports Guy]

1 hr per 30 ab's equals 20 for a season, so I'm not sure how that is very little power.

Yes, it equals 20 homers in a 600 ab season in a league that is a notorious hitters league and in a park that favors hitters.

Wow, what an accomplishment! He did show more power in AAA than anywhere else but that has to be taken with a grain of salt when you look a the rest of his numbers in other leagues

Now, let's look at his homers per ab in every other league he has done(combined):

When you do that, he has averaged a homer every 88 ab's.

He is maybe a 10 homer guy at best...He may hit 25-30 doubles because of his speed but he is never going to be mistaken for a doubles hitter like BRob IMO.

He has never been a big doubles hitter, so its not like you can predict him out with power either.

[Delduck]

I like it when davearm comes on. I think he gives good insights to how our players are viewed around the rest of the league, which is something that we often (as a group) lose sight of. Additionally, he's not as much of a homer as many many people, so I am not sure how much he overvalues the Cubs assets. Either way, it's a different look, which is appreciated by me, at least.

I second that. I think any fan of any team will always have the tendency to over value their players. It is always good to have someone come in and give us a reality check. I am not saying he is always right and we are wrong, but sometimes it get plain old funny how much we over value some guys.

[davearm]

Still curious why you're doing all of these convoluted and unorthodox computations and not just looking at SLG. SLG = power.

Would it be because SLG tells the opposite story of the one you're trying to sell? Nah.

And doesn't it seem a little bit desperate to be digging back through minor league records from '02 and '03 to prove a point? That's 5 years ago now. In those days Cedeno was a scrawny 140 lb. teenager that couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper sack. He's still not a big guy, but he's clearly gotten bigger and stronger, and added power to his game since his A-ball days. He's never going to be confused with Mark McGwire, but what he was 5 years ago is irrelevant to today.

[theobird]

Sports Guy loves to berate and condescend everyone who doesn't agree with his opinion, so when responding to his posts, I like to talk in a language he'll understand.

I think if you looked, you'd find I'm far more civil with anyone who is respectful of me and others.

Dave, let me explain my perspective on all of this. I am a lifelong Oriole fan who grew up in suburban Chicago. My Father was from Baltimore and since he taught me how to play the game myself, I was an Oriole fan from jump street. But, I have also always pulled for the Cubbies in the NL. Kessinger, Beckert, Monday, Banks...I loved those guys. I still have a piece of me that will always pull for the Cubs....Until they play the O's.

Enough about that. Lets talk about valuation of these players. Pie is a very talented young player. No doubt. But his stock has fallen pretty hard based on his struggles at the ML level. The tools are quite obvious, but there have been a ton of "toolsy" guys who never made an impact at the ML level. I think Pie will do well, sooner than later. But he isn't the can't miss kid anymore, because up to now he has missed. That lessens his trade value quite a bit. Soto appears to have a bright future as a hitter, but his catching skills are no more than average. Still, he has at least equal value as Pie, IMO. Cedeno is nothing special. I don't think he has as much value as Theriot or even Fontenot. I would say his trade value is not much more than the birds Fiorentino. I would be happy with Theriot, Pie and Soto for Miggy and Hernandez and some Cash. But the risk is all on the O's.

I think it is a trade that should happen. Why? because it fits the needs of both teams. Adding Miggy and Hernandez makes the Cubs a legit WS contender immediately. I would love that. And the Orioles? They can afford to be patient with Pie, Theriot can take over at SS and play the solid defense the FO wants, and Soto can carry the load at Catcher until Weiters is ready. Then he can become a DH or 1b. What say U?

[Sports Guy]

I agree. We need more posters like DaveArm, not less.

You mean guys that claim a player has no value(Trax) and says one player has value(Moore) and then when they are traded for one another, try and tell us that it was a good trade for his team?

Yes, we need more posters like that.

[square634]

Still curious why you're doing all of these convoluted and unorthodox computations and not just looking at SLG. SLG = power.

Would it be because SLG tells the opposite story of the one you're trying to sell? Nah.

And doesn't it seem a little bit desperate to be digging back through minor league records from '02 and '03 to prove a point? That's 5 years ago now. In those days Cedeno was a scrawny 140 lb. teenager that couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper sack. He's still not a big guy, but he's clearly gotten bigger and stronger, and added power to his game since his A-ball days. He's never going to be confused with Mark McGwire, but what he was 5 years ago is irrelevant to today.

SLG does not equal power. It equals total bases. For example, in 2006, Tejada slugged .498, but that was largely driven by singles and a .330 batting average. A better estimate of power is ISO (which is SLG - AVG).

[davearm]

Dave, let me explain my perspective on all of this. I am a lifelong Oriole fan who grew up in suburban Chicago. My Father was from Baltimore and since he taught me how to play the game myself, I was an Oriole fan from jump street. But, I have also always pulled for the Cubbies in the NL. Kessinger, Beckert, Monday, Banks...I loved those guys. I still have a piece of me that will always pull for the Cubs....Until they play the O's.

Enough about that. Lets talk about valuation of these players. Pie is a very talented young player. No doubt. But his stock has fallen pretty hard based on his struggles at the ML level. The tools are quite obvious, but there have been a ton of "toolsy" guys who never made an impact at the ML level. I think Pie will do well, sooner than later. But he isn't the can't miss kid anymore, because up to now he has missed. That lessens his trade value quite a bit. Soto appears to have a bright future as a hitter, but his catching skills are no more than average. Still, he has at least equal value as Pie, IMO. Cedeno is nothing special. I don't think he has as much value as Theriot or even Fontenot. I would say his trade value is not much more than the birds Fiorentino. I would be happy with Theriot, Pie and Soto for Miggy and Hernandez and some Cash. But the risk is all on the O's.

I think it is a trade that should happen. Why? because it fits the needs of both teams. Adding Miggy and Hernandez makes the Cubs a legit WS contender immediately. I would love that. And the Orioles? They can afford to be patient with Pie, Theriot can take over at SS and play the solid defense the FO wants, and Soto can carry the load at Catcher until Weiters is ready. Then he can become a DH or 1b. What say U?

I disagree across the board with your opinions.

Pie has not lost value. He was given regular playing time in the bigleagues for about a month. Not nearly enough to form any reliable conclusions about his future. Look at how Markakis started out in April and May of 2006. Meanwhile Pie continued to improve this season at AAA, showing better plate discipline than he had in the past. The Cubs specifically focused him on this, and he improved. Continued improvement at AAA + poor production in limited MLB play = net change of roughly zero in status. Plus the guy's still only 22. You'd be an utter fool to downgrade him significantly after a few hundred ABs at his age.

Soto has above average defensive skills, and he always has. Hitting has been what's held him back, and the main question to be answered with him is whether or not his breakout in 2007 will be the norm or the exception. Defense is not the issue at all. He could have a long career as a Henry Blanco type if his hitting regresses.

Cedeno has the potential to be a solid everyday SS. Maybe even a very good everyday SS. Theriot really doesn't. He should be a utility guy (an excellent one at that). Theriot's 2007 is what you get -- solid defense, OK OBP, little power, great baserunning. Cedeno could easily eclipse Theriot as a hitter, and I think he will if he gets the chance. Defense is a wash -- Theriot is the unspectacular reliable type, Cedeno is the electric but error-prone type. Theriot is the better baserunner, easily.

Cedeno may or may not fulfill his potential, but he is the guy to take a chance on, not Theriot, IMO.

Fontenot is a fringe, replacement level player. Guys like him come and go all the time with nobody really noticing. You can have him for free.