Blockbuster brewing???

[davearm]

SLG does not equal power. It equals total bases. For example, in 2006, Tejada slugged .498, but that was largely driven by singles and a .330 batting average. A better estimate of power is ISO (which is SLG - AVG).

IsoP is definitely an improvement on SLG. No question about that.

But the "mainstream" stat to look at is SLG. It's cleaner and more informative than HR/AB or somesuch.

[weams]

I disagree across the board with your opinions.

Pie has not lost value. He was given regular playing time in the bigleagues for about a month. Not nearly enough to form any reliable conclusions about his future. Look at how Markakis started out in April and May of 2006. Meanwhile Pie continued to improve this season at AAA, showing better plate discipline than he had in the past. The Cubs specifically focused him on this, and he improved. Continued improvement at AAA + poor production in limited MLB play = net change of roughly zero in status. Plus the guy's still only 22. You'd be an utter fool to downgrade him significantly after a few hundred ABs at his age.

Soto has above average defensive skills, and he always has. Hitting has been what's held him back, and the main question to be answered with him is whether or not his breakout in 2007 will be the norm or the exception. Defense is not the issue at all. He could have a long career as a Henry Blanco type if his hitting regresses.

Cedeno has the potential to be a solid everyday SS. Maybe even a very good everyday SS. Theriot really doesn't. He should be a utility guy (an excellent one at that). Theriot's 2007 is what you get -- solid defense, OK OBP, little power, great baserunning. Cedeno could easily eclipse Theriot as a hitter, and I think he will if he gets the chance. Defense is a wash -- Theriot is the unspectacular reliable type, Cedeno is the electric but error-prone type. Theriot is the better baserunner, easily.

Cedeno may or may not fulfill his potential, but he is the guy to take a chance on, not Theriot, IMO.

Fontenot is a fringe, replacement level player. Guys like him come and go all the time with nobody really noticing. You can have him for free.

We did....

[Sports Guy]

It's funny reading Dave's assessment of Fontenot right now...He tried to tell us that he was valuable earlier in the season.

[tywright]

LOL. So which is it? three prospects who have lost their luster, or two over the hill players with baggage? I can't tell by your post where you stand. Are the three prospects too much to ask for? Or, are we not getting enough back for our baggage carriers? Please, take a stand.

I was just saying what your proposal boiled down to. Nothing against your offer, I was just saying that the 3 players we would get back all have have decreasing value and could easily be busts. So basically I'm against trading for those 3

[Migrant Redbird]

It's funny reading Dave's assessment of Fontenot right now...He tried to tell us that he was valuable earlier in the season.

Check out Fontenot's splits and you'll see why.

1st half: .356/.376/.577/.953, 8 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs in only 109 plate appearances.

2nd half: .215/.307/.262/.568 in 151 plate appearances, no home runs, only 4 doubles and 1 triple.

Dave's not the first fan to go gaga over a small sample size.

[Sports Guy]

Check out Fontenot's splits and you'll see why.

1st half: .356/.376/.577/.953, 8 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs in only 109 plate appearances.

2nd half: .215/.307/.262/.568 in 151 plate appearances, no home runs, only 4 doubles and 1 triple.

Dave's not the first fan to go gaga over a small sample size.

But if he is so valuable, then 151 ab's shouldn't change one's opinion.

[SrMeowMeow]

But if he is so valuable, then 151 ab's shouldn't change one's opinion.

Oh, don't patronize. Nobody on here is impartial.

[Frobby]

But if he is so valuable, then 151 ab's shouldn't change one's opinion.

I suppose you have never once been fooled by how someone looked for their first 2-3 months? Now I will admit, you (especially in the last 2 years) have been pretty consistent in not getting too high or low on a player who seemed to be performing above or below the level suggested by minor league stats and/or peripherals. Sometimes, to a fault. But surely even you have sometimes been wrong in your initial assessment of a player and later changed your mind.

If Dave got excited over Fonetnot's first few months, he's only human.

[rooter]

I remember SG being pretty high on Ponson for awhile

[davearm]

It's funny reading Dave's assessment of Fontenot right now...He tried to tell us that he was valuable earlier in the season.

LOL. The most favorable thing I've ever said about Fontenot is, "so far so good since his callup, looks like he could be a decent regular at 2B." That was back in June.

Back then, he did indeed look like he could be a decent regular at 2B. Maybe he still can, but he definitely should be evaluated differently now than 4 months ago.

If anything, I'm probably selling him a little short now.

[davearm]

Check out Fontenot's splits and you'll see why.

1st half: .356/.376/.577/.953, 8 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs in only 109 plate appearances.

2nd half: .215/.307/.262/.568 in 151 plate appearances, no home runs, only 4 doubles and 1 triple.

Dave's not the first fan to go gaga over a small sample size.

Except I didn't go gaga over Fontenot.

[Tx Oriole]

And Selig was an owner and the comm. at one time . Thta was a conflict of Interest. Doesn't that violate a law?

[theobird]

LOL. The most favorable thing I've ever said about Fontenot is, "so far so good since his callup, looks like he could be a decent regular at 2B." That was back in June.

Back then, he did indeed look like he could be a decent regular at 2B. Maybe he still can, but he definitely should be evaluated differently now than 4 months ago.

If anything, I'm probably selling him a little short now.

Yet these same principles don't apply to Pie despite twice the sample size? Sorry Dave, your painting yourself into the corner.

[mweb]

Yes, it equals 20 homers in a 600 ab season in a league that is a notorious hitters league and in a park that favors hitters.

Wow, what an accomplishment! He did show more power in AAA than anywhere else but that has to be taken with a grain of salt when you look a the rest of his numbers in other leagues

Now, let's look at his homers per ab in every other league he has done(combined):

When you do that, he has averaged a homer every 88 ab's.

He is maybe a 10 homer guy at best...He may hit 25-30 doubles because of his speed but he is never going to be mistaken for a doubles hitter like BRob IMO.

He has never been a big doubles hitter, so its not like you can predict him out with power either.

The park effects seem pretty average to me. He's obviously improved quite a bit, you can't say it's all league and park. He hit 4 hr's in 74 major ab's this year. It looks like he can be a 15-20 hr guy, not saying that will happen, but I wouldn't say he's a 10 hr guy at best. I doubt he's going to be anything special, but he may turn into a decent SS.

[davearm]

Yet these same principles don't apply to Pie despite twice the sample size? Sorry Dave, your painting yourself into the corner.

You've got it 100% backwards.

Fontenot's hot month didn't make me think he'll be something more than he is.

By the same token, Pie's cold month doesn't make me think he'll be something less than he is. Especially considering after that cold month, Pie went right back to raking in AAA.

If you want to put the "bust" label or "AAAA" label on a 22 year old kid after one month in the bigleagues, that's your business. Personally, I'm taking the longer view on him, just like I did with Fontenot.