Orioles sign Vlad

[DrungoHazewood]

Sorry - didn't see this until someone else quoted it.

1) A non-move to keep open future potential move is not an improvement for the future. Is it? I do agree that aside for potentially Roberts, there isn't anything on the books that should be a suck on payroll by 2012/2013. So long as Markakis at least maintains (which he should have zero trouble doing) he should be worth the $17+ million he'll be owed in 2013/14.

2) After this year do you believe BAL will offer arb to Koji/Vlad/Lee? Do you think Duch/Hardy will be worth a pick? I think Hardy is probably the best bet of the lot to be worth a pick and offered arb, and I do agree that at least this year's additions have chances to be worth picks.

3) Reynolds was added - agree he has the potential to be part of the future. I'd include him in the "little" part of "little to nothing". If BAL hits on him (he shows an ability to stay afloat in the AL East) it will be a big deal. #4 solved.

4) Stretching. Really stretching. But, sure, if BAL has the 20 game bump people expect it should result in some extra jingle. That's an "if" and not a "now" declarative though, right?

It isn't about a Billy Beane quote, it's about best utilizing resources. I'm fine stating I don't think they are doing it and that next off-season will look a lot like this off-season with regards to what holes need to be filled. We'll see where we end up.

Of course, while I guess I seem to be one of the recurring "downers" w/r/t this off-season, it isn't like I have consistently been down on the direction of the organization. I'm also the guy who said after the '08 draft that Matusz would be at the top of BAL's rotation in the not-distant future and didn't jump off the bandwagon when he struggled some at the beginning of last year. I think Wieters is still potentially one of the top 5 talents in the AL when all is said and done. I still trumpet Tillman's potential while countless on here were quick to throw him under a bus. I still believe Reimold is a potential #4/#5 hitter and have said so since 2008. I have said, and still believe, Arrieta is not necessarily destined for the bullpen. There's a lot I like about the organization. But the process they are using to build towards being competitive is flawed, in my opinion.

Part of the reason I get frustrated is that entering the off-season last year BAL was moving into a great position as far as competing in the near future. Last year was a throwaway, in part because of injuries, in part because BAL had Trembley at the helm, in part because they made non-moves last off-season. Assuming all goes well this year and BAL is on the positive side of .500, they are looking to fill 1B/SS/DH all over again. They aren't getting Lee/Hardy/Vlad for less than they paid this year, arb goes up for everyone, and I imagine you are getting pretty darn close to payroll max. What about 2 years from now? What about extending some of the "now" cheap talent?

I just don't think this course is likely to lead to the playoffs. If you think that is wrong, fine. But to say that questioning the utility of these moves as relates to the future is "overstating", I couldn't disagree with you more.

Have the Orioles optimized their use of resources? No. Have they fixed their scouting/signing/development issues? No. Do they have a pipleline of talent and draft picks ready to keep the team sustainably functioning for the foreseeable future? No.

But are they pointed in the right general direction, with hope for 2011, a core of young talent, and a plausible path to making the franchise competitive in the future? Yes.

I'm going to be happy that the team has reached a 60% or 70% solution, after 10 or 15 years of 10% solutions. As a fan of the Baltimore Orioles, someone who roots for the team to increase my happiness, I don't see the point in heavily focusing on what they're doing wrong when they're doing more right than they have in a decade.

[notfast]

I'm guessing we all know who will wear #27 now...

[Sports Guy]

But are they pointed in the right general direction, with hope for 2011, a core of young talent, and a plausible path to making the franchise competitive in the future? Yes.

The answer to this may be yes but how strong of a yes is it? I mean, I think we can all agree that we all really like the upside of our young talent. But, at this point, how much better is our young talent than a lot of other teams?

Heading into last year, I stated that I felt our 26 and under talent was as good or better than any other team's. Well, since then, Nick was just ok(and is/will be 27), Reimold and Pie did nothing, Tillman regressed a little, Jones showed some improvement but not a lot, Wieters did nothing, Bell was overmatched, etc....Meanwhile, our MiL talent sucked outside of Britton and our draft didn't appear to hit an homers outside of maybe Machado.

So, while the current core of young players is very solid and has a lot of upside, other teams have caught up to us quickly and are using their resources more wisely.

We are in better shape now, compared to the Orioles of the past. But we haven't made a dent in the other teams because of their vast improvements.

So now, our hope is that not only will the young guys bounce back this year but also we see the vets bounce back and then they can be turned into more younger talent. We can also hope for more wins and more fan excitement which will hopefully lead to ticket sales and more revenue generated by MASN. If that happens, perhaps we get more money for FAs and we become a more desirable destination for FAs.

I'm going to be happy that the team has reached a 60% or 70% solution, after 10 or 15 years of 10% solutions. As a fan of the Baltimore Orioles, someone who roots for the team to increase my happiness, I don't see the point in heavily focusing on what they're doing wrong when they're doing more right than they have in a decade.

And there you have the issue. We are happy because we are used to the Orioles doing something stupid. Our happiness is based off of that.

[Baldimore, hon]

Maybe some of this happiness is based off of us continually doing stupid things and us not doing something completely idiotic this year. I think that's ok. Isn't it ok to be excited about some better decision-making? I sure think so.

Is it important for us to put more money into scouting? Absolutely. If there's anything I think the Ravens do better than anyone else, it is scout players. They have a top-notch scouting department. The Orioles should do the same. But, they aren't right now. So, I will take this little victory of us signing Vladimir Guerrero and smile contently.

This team is better today than it was two days ago.

I understand Stotle's position and agree with him wholeheartedly. I also agree with Drungo wholeheartedly. I think Stotle is thinking more long-term vision of the team, which is MORE important I'd say. But, I also think that sometimes you do need to look to NOW. And I'm glad my team is doing that for once. After the past 13 years of saying next year is the year, it's nice to think that this year could be the year.

[tennOsfan]

Count me as excited to watch this team play come April. 1 through 9, our lineup is fine. Pitching could be ok. A few breaks (that we never get, so maybe we're due) and we could still be relevant come September.

That's all I ask.

Long-term? I don't know if Vlad affects it, but surely to goodness a better team in 2011 puts more rear ends in the seats and more watching on TV. Getting fans excited about the Os is a good thing. I certainly want this team doing more in player development, but a little good news now is welcome also.

[Stotle]

Have the Orioles optimized their use of resources? No. Have they fixed their scouting/signing/development issues? No. Do they have a pipleline of talent and draft picks ready to keep the team sustainably functioning for the foreseeable future? No.

But are they pointed in the right general direction, with hope for 2011, a core of young talent, and a plausible path to making the franchise competitive in the future? Yes.

I'm going to be happy that the team has reached a 60% or 70% solution, after 10 or 15 years of 10% solutions. As a fan of the Baltimore Orioles, someone who roots for the team to increase my happiness, I don't see the point in heavily focusing on what they're doing wrong when they're doing more right than they have in a decade.

Well, Jon, I'm just separating the "fan" from the baseball discussion part. Of course I'm pleased BAL is doing things better than they used to. But I don't see why it's out of line to continue to talk about the things they could be doing better.

And just to be clear, this post sounds like you agree with me more than you disagree, but you choose not to dwell on the issues I'm pointing out. That's absolutely fine -- and as I pointed out I'd expect a fan base to be excited, particularly this time of year when the team is looking stronger than it has in recent memory.

Maybe I need to just step away from the board and stop peeing in the collective kool aid. It's clear that most of the board wants to simply enjoy the 2011 roster for a while and with the limited reasons to be happy in Birdland I guess there is no reason to talk shop. There will be time for that when the season rolls around.

[Baldimore, hon]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=6091427

This interview with Buck on ESPN is nice to hear. Have to worry about us!

[Enjoy Terror]

I personally feel that signing good players in the Majors, even for just a year, will allow our farm system to catch up a bit. You know, when Derrek Lee leaves, this gives players like Mahoney a year to play their way in Norfolk and perhaps take over when Lee leaves. It gives us time to evaluate Snyder in Norfolk for another year. Guerrero gives us time to see Reimold work out of his funk daily in Norfolk as opposed to on the bench platooning twice a week in the Majors. It gives us time to see guys like Henson, Adams and Welty get the point where they may be able to contribute to the Orioles.

It seems to me that most of the vitriol about this signing is mostly because of how Pie and Reimold are affected by it... but in all honesty if Pie wants to play his way onto the Orioles he'll figure it out. His winter ball stint only proved to us the guy is worthless against left handed pitching and can mash righties.

I'm personally in favor of just watching good baseball by good player like Vlad, like Lee, etc. I don't see how an awful team in a lineup with no protection can effectively graduate rookies onto the team without any veteran experience, without the protection for them to hit. This year of free agent signings will, in my mind, do nothing but help foster the growth and culture of this organization.

[DrungoHazewood]

Well, Jon, I'm just separating the "fan" from the baseball discussion part. Of course I'm pleased BAL is doing things better than they used to. But I don't see why it's out of line to continue to talk about the things they could be doing better.

And just to be clear, this post sounds like you agree with me more than you disagree, but you choose not to dwell on the issues I'm pointing out. That's absolutely fine -- and as I pointed out I'd expect a fan base to be excited, particularly this time of year when the team is looking stronger than it has in recent memory.

Maybe I need to just step away from the board and stop peeing in the collective kool aid. It's clear that most of the board wants to simply enjoy the 2011 roster for a while and with the limited reasons to be happy in Birdland I guess there is no reason to talk shop. There will be time for that when the season rolls around.

Noting wrong with being upfront and honest about the state of the franchise. But there's plenty of places and times for that.

It just feels like you're going to a big 60th birthday bash to remind everyone that the guy is 3/4th of the way to dead.

[LookinUp]

There is nothing to say once Jon posts in a thread.

Yes there is. WTF is up with your avatar? Girls man...girls.

[Stotle]

The things you've been writing are spot on. We do still have the list of issues and potential issues you've pointed out. However, I'd agree with this paragraph. For the moment, I'd try to either be happy about the improvement rather than the lingering issues between today and perfection. You, SG, and many others (including me) have a continuous process improvement type of mindset. Folks like that are typically fairly successful and together, but they also tend to be fairly cynical and have a tough time appreciating the good in life.

I don't know how many times I've gotten to the end of a week where I've eaten well at 80% of my meals, run 4 of the 5 times I planned to run, accomplished the vast majority of the major tasks at work that week, and found a way to bowl or play tennis or something else yet I spend time on Sunday lamenting the crappy meal I had or run I missed or etc... Rox has looked at me more times than I can count and told me that I need to relax and enjoy the good things that happened and the times where I maintained my discipline rather than always remembering the "misses" in my week. I think she has a point and I'm trying to do that. I think this is one of those times re: the Orioles. As you wrote, there will be time to talk shop later. We should enjoy this milestone now (successful offseason) because it will be gone before we know it.

My 2 cents...

Fair enough, and thanks for posting this. I guess my issue is that while I'm happy BAL should be a much better team in 2011, I don't really see much point in "enjoying" this particular moment. Maybe I'm too far removed from passionate fandom to turn off the analytics. I think if this off-season had happened 12 months ago I'd be right there with everyone. But everything from the pace of the "rebuild" to the prioritizing of resource spend has really dimmed my belief that any long term competitiveness is going to grow out of this FO. In a way, I feel even worse with an off-season like this because I think it's highly likely this team becomes respectable for 2-3 years and slides right back into mediocrity when the salaries start to escalate -- finishing over .500 a few times but never really sniffing the post season.

Eh, I'll just take your advice. I'll check back in sometime in March when there is baseball to discuss. If even the most pragmatic of posters are saying "shut up and stop analyzing - we want to turn our brains off and enjoy having some potential talent on the ML roster" then far be it for me fart into the euphoria.

[Stotle]

Noting wrong with being upfront and honest about the state of the franchise. But there's plenty of places and times for that.

It just feels like you're going to a big 60th birthday bash to remind everyone that the guy is 3/4th of the way to dead.

This is fine, but it's a much different point than you seemed to be making with your first response when you acted like my post was over the top and wholly incorrect. It's okay to just be a fan and excited. It's kinda "meh" to act like someone not joining in your excitement must not be breaking down the situation correctly. Just do what Frobby does and say, "I'm just going to enjoy this and not worry about the analytical side of things right now." I certainly wouldn't hold it against you.

[LookinUp]

But I don't see why it's out of line to continue to talk about the things they could be doing better.

Because it's a Vlad thread and you're not talking much about the things we know Vlad will effect (power, playing time for Reimold/Pie, whatever else).

It seems to me that you're conflating two issues that aren't necessarily related. Signing Vlad is no different than signing Lee or Koji, or Gregg. None are part of the future, money for all could be used in other areas, the rebuild could go on for another few years.

[Stotle]

Because it's a Vlad thread and you're not talking much about the things we know Vlad will effect (power, playing time for Reimold/Pie, whatever else).

It seems to me that you're conflating two issues that aren't necessarily related. Signing Vlad is no different than signing Lee or Koji, or Gregg. None are part of the future, money for all could be used in other areas, the rebuild could go on for another few years.

Um, all I said was that I didn't think it was a good signing and pointed to a Neyer response to this specific signing. Then, I responded to people asking me questions or telling me why I was incorrect. How am I not talking about appropriate things in a "we signed Vlad" thread?

EDIT -- not to mention Lee filled a hole at 1B while Vlad was a superfluous addition at DH and moved Scott into LF. There is an argument for him being an upgrade, but it's not the same thing as filling a hole in the line-up. I agree with you that Greg was superfluous as well, and money that could have been better spent elsewhere.

[Crazysilver03]

Because it's a Vlad thread and you're not talking much about the things we know Vlad will effect (power, playing time for Reimold/Pie, whatever else).

It seems to me that you're conflating two issues that aren't necessarily related. Signing Vlad is no different than signing Lee or Koji, or Gregg. None are part of the future, money for all could be used in other areas, the rebuild could go on for another few years.

Incorrect.

We had a viable option for DH (& LF) that is being displaced for one season (or part of a season) to bring Vlad in. We needed Lee, Koji, and to a lesser extent, Gregg.

Plus, if the Vlad money is deferred, it could have ramifications on subsequent payrolls.