Orioles sign Vlad

[Chevytrckman3]

Hahahaha!

I hate to be a Negative Nancy, but Vlad is the 2011 version of 2009-2010 Griffey to me - An old, declining former star taking up a roster spot who hurts the team and prevents younger, more useful and deserving players from getting playing time. He might not be as bad as Griffey was in his final years, but there's a good chance that he will be, and at $8M I have a feeling that the Orioles are going to be hesitant to release him if he sucks. It would be even worse if he just ends up being mediocre, but good enough to still get a full season of plate appearances. As a one-year rental, a full season of Vlad versus seeing what Reimold/Pie can do sets this team WAY back in 2012.

Maybe I'm just overreacting, but I truly feel that signing Vlad is a terrible move for this club. I think for the long-term benefit of the team, the best case scenario for this signing is that Vlad gets DFA'd or hits the disabled list early in the season...

Except Griffey was 40 years old and Vlad will be 36. When Griffey was 36, he hit 30 HR and drove in 92 with an OPS of .860. I'd take that in a heartbeat. He may be older, but Vlad sure looked far from done last year. Pie got a chance, and to me he's shown he's a really good 4th OFer. And Reimold at 26 stunk up AAA last year.

[GoGoPower]

Except Griffey was 40 years old and Vlad will be 36. When Griffey was 36, he hit 30 HR and drove in 92 with an OPS of .860. I'd take that in a heartbeat. He may be older, but Vlad sure looked far from done last year. Pie got a chance, and to me he's shown he's a really good 4th OFer. And Reimold at 26 stunk up AAA last year.

That's true (unless Vlad is older than he says he is, which I think could very well be the case), but just from seeing them both play in small samples over the years, Vlad sure does seem to be in much worse shape at 36 than Griffey did at 39-40.

Griffey followed up that .860 OPS with a .777 OPS and a fairly big drop in power. Vlad is coming off an .840 OPS season. I'd say the chance of decline there is pretty significant, and Vlad doesn't really have much to offer if his power fades.

I don't disagree that Pie is likely just a 4th outfielder. I don't feel that way about Reimold though. He was injured last year, and I think there's a good chance that he would outperform Vlad this season. Even if he doesn't, I'd still rather see what he can do.

[Oriolidae85]

Keith Law weighs in on O's lineup after Vlad acquisition:

Via Twitter:

To be fair he says "very good". My take on KLaw's twit is the Orioles lineup is not in the top tier. IMO, they could be very good, but the "law" of averages beg to differ given the circumstances of the players in the Orioles lineup.

Vlad's OPS was shy of an .800 OPS in away games last year and he could produce overall below that in 2011 (as a low end projection). My range is .780 OPS - .830 for the Orioles.

Reynolds had a horrific September last year, but he has had a bad September his entire career. He K's alot, but his upside is still ticking like a time bomb. His range of production could go in any direction, but nothing is a given. My guess is .700 OPS low end .950 high end. If you look at the all time K Kings top 100 in a single season, you'll find Mike Schmidt only had Bobby Bonds ahead of him as the leader when he was Mark's age. He's also Reynold's best comp per BR and Mark is Schmidt's best comp so far :slytf:.

Lee hit as well as LaRoche last season without an attached ligament in his thumb and at 4+ years his junior. Low-end .780, high end .875 OPS.

Hardy? No lows/highs, he'll have a .799 OPS this year.

Without going over every player, the Orioles could very well have only one or two players above an .800 OPS. Or they could have 5+ players above. The depth (as Markakis said today) is very strong throughout and they do have very good potential. Cannot wait for OD to see this very good lineup!!

[Stotle]

Well, except for the fact that a team on the fringes of contention will probably draw half a million more fans to the Yards, and seemingly half the roster is now on one-year contracts that will expire and could net us draft picks next year.

Their "little to no thought" of the future includes:

1) A very reasonable budget for the future, with almost no encumbering contracts.

2) Potential for draft pick compensation from any of Hardy, Vlad, Lee, maybe Duchscherer, Koji.

3) A core of 6-7 regulars/starters under the age of 27.

4) Potential for much improved revenues with a real major league team that should be semi-competitive.

Could they have piled up more draft picks, or done more to overtly improve the development system? Sure. But this recurring theme that they don't give a hoot about building a team beyond 2011 seems a little overdone. MacPhail hasn't bought into that Billy Beane quote basically equating finishing five games out of the playoffs with winning 60 games, but I don't either.

Sorry - didn't see this until someone else quoted it.

1) A non-move to keep open future potential move is not an improvement for the future. Is it? I do agree that aside for potentially Roberts, there isn't anything on the books that should be a suck on payroll by 2012/2013. So long as Markakis at least maintains (which he should have zero trouble doing) he should be worth the $17+ million he'll be owed in 2013/14.

2) After this year do you believe BAL will offer arb to Koji/Vlad/Lee? Do you think Duch/Hardy will be worth a pick? I think Hardy is probably the best bet of the lot to be worth a pick and offered arb, and I do agree that at least this year's additions have chances to be worth picks.

3) Reynolds was added - agree he has the potential to be part of the future. I'd include him in the "little" part of "little to nothing". If BAL hits on him (he shows an ability to stay afloat in the AL East) it will be a big deal. #4 solved.

4) Stretching. Really stretching. But, sure, if BAL has the 20 game bump people expect it should result in some extra jingle. That's an "if" and not a "now" declarative though, right?

It isn't about a Billy Beane quote, it's about best utilizing resources. I'm fine stating I don't think they are doing it and that next off-season will look a lot like this off-season with regards to what holes need to be filled. We'll see where we end up.

Of course, while I guess I seem to be one of the recurring "downers" w/r/t this off-season, it isn't like I have consistently been down on the direction of the organization. I'm also the guy who said after the '08 draft that Matusz would be at the top of BAL's rotation in the not-distant future and didn't jump off the bandwagon when he struggled some at the beginning of last year. I think Wieters is still potentially one of the top 5 talents in the AL when all is said and done. I still trumpet Tillman's potential while countless on here were quick to throw him under a bus. I still believe Reimold is a potential #4/#5 hitter and have said so since 2008. I have said, and still believe, Arrieta is not necessarily destined for the bullpen. There's a lot I like about the organization. But the process they are using to build towards being competitive is flawed, in my opinion.

Part of the reason I get frustrated is that entering the off-season last year BAL was moving into a great position as far as competing in the near future. Last year was a throwaway, in part because of injuries, in part because BAL had Trembley at the helm, in part because they made non-moves last off-season. Assuming all goes well this year and BAL is on the positive side of .500, they are looking to fill 1B/SS/DH all over again. They aren't getting Lee/Hardy/Vlad for less than they paid this year, arb goes up for everyone, and I imagine you are getting pretty darn close to payroll max. What about 2 years from now? What about extending some of the "now" cheap talent?

I just don't think this course is likely to lead to the playoffs. If you think that is wrong, fine. But to say that questioning the utility of these moves as relates to the future is "overstating", I couldn't disagree with you more.

[Stotle]

Post of the thread, and I'm not too shocked there was no reply. If we had a ball player that hit as many homeruns as Drungo, we'd be lethal.

Haha. Right, my MO is to duck questions. I wonder if this would be your response if anyone else typed the post. Maybe Frobby.

Here's a napkin -- you've got some Drungo on your chin...

[Oriolidae85]

Vlad = Good business move - he will put mainstream fans into the park this year.

More fans = more $$

Better team = more $$

Both = more $$ through MASN

More $$ for all (hopefully) means more $$ for areas that Stotle is correctly concerned about.

Maybe it's me but all the "maybe we will be third" talk is really being too pessimistic. Except for the Sawx I am just not completely thrilled with anyone else. Of course, the young P's will determine how far we go, but it is nice to actually have a major league lineup.

And the Orioles get more International recognition in the news. Vlad most certainly is followed in his native.

[GoGoPower]

Reynolds had a horrific September last year, but he has had a bad September his entire career. He K's alot, but his upside is still ticking like a time bomb. His range of production could go in any direction, but nothing is a given. My guess is .700 OPS low end .950 high end. If you look at the all time K Kings top 100 in a single season, you'll find Mike Schmidt only had Bobby Bonds ahead of him as the leader when he was Mark's age. He's also Reynold's best comp per BR and Mark is Schmidt's best comp so far :slytf:.

Reynolds' bad September last year was probably the result of having a bone bruise at the base of his thumb that he tried playing through. While he has tended to slump a bit in September, if I remember correctly he did have a pretty great one in 2007.

I think his range of performance is probably .780 to 1.050. Yeah, I said it! I personally think he's pretty great and has a ton of talent. I really hope he shows it in a big way this year...

[Stotle]

To be fair he says "very good". My take on KLaw's twit is the Orioles lineup is not in the top tier. IMO, they could be very good, but the "law" of averages beg to differ given the circumstances of the players in the Orioles lineup.

Vlad's OPS was shy of an .800 OPS in away games last year and he could produce overall below that in 2011 (as a low end projection). My range is .780 OPS - .830 for the Orioles.

Reynolds had a horrific September last year, but he has had a bad September his entire career. He K's alot, but his upside is still ticking like a time bomb. His range of production could go in any direction, but nothing is a given. My guess is .700 OPS low end .950 high end. If you look at the all time K Kings top 100 in a single season, you'll find Mike Schmidt only had Bobby Bonds ahead of him as the leader when he was Mark's age. He's also Reynold's best comp per BR and Mark is Schmidt's best comp so far :slytf:.

Lee hit as well as LaRoche last season without an attached ligament in his thumb and at 4+ years his junior. Low-end .780, high end .875 OPS.

Hardy? No lows/highs, he'll have a .799 OPS this year.

Without going over every player, the Orioles could very well have only one or two players above an .800 OPS. Or they could have 5+ players above. The depth (as Markakis said today) is very strong throughout and they do have very good potential. Cannot wait for OD to see this very good lineup!!

It's clearly a very solid lineup, but the strength of the organization remains:

Matusz

Wieters

Tillman

Arrieta

Britton

Bergesen

Markakis

Jones

Reimold

The goal of the organization should be adding to this core while it's cheap. Hopefully Reynolds joins the list with a strong 2011. Next October it's back to square four, though. If Scott reverts to a 2 WAR player he's probably no longer a "bargain"; ditto Guthrie (less concerned about this, as hopefully BAL has a comfy Matusz/Arrieta/Tillman/Britton/Bergie entering 2012).

If BAL is willing to bump payroll over $100 million, I gladly retract my critiques and have a lot fewer concerns.

[Remember The Alomar]

It's clearly a very solid lineup, but the strength of the organization remains:

Matusz

Wieters

Tillman

Arrieta

Britton

Bergesen

Markakis

Jones

Reimold

The goal of the organization should be adding to this core while it's cheap. Hopefully Reynolds joins the list with a strong 2011. Next October it's back to square four, though. If Scott reverts to a 2 WAR player he's probably no longer a "bargain"; ditto Guthrie (less concerned about this, as hopefully BAL has a comfy Matusz/Arrieta/Tillman/Britton/Bergie entering 2012).

If BAL is willing to bump payroll over $100 million, I gladly retract my critiques and have a lot fewer concerns.

Don't you think that's a possibility if we have a good showing this season? Maybe I'm just playing armchair psychologist, but I always thought that after Belle, PA become gunshy when it came to spending money. Yes, there was the Tejada contract, but we never spent the money to build around him.

If we have a 80 some win season because of the players we brought in this season (of course, young players have to take a step forward as well), do you think we may see Angelos begin to put more money back into the team since he may feel as though we are "close"?

[Stotle]

Don't you think that's a possibility if we have a good showing this season? Maybe I'm just playing armchair psychologist, but I always thought that after Belle, PA become gunshy when it came to spending money. Yes, there was the Tejada contract, but we never spent the money to build around him.

If we have a 80 some win season because of the players we brought in this season (of course, young players have to take a step forward as well), do you think we may see Angelos begin to put more money back into the team since he may feel as though we are "close"?

I have no idea. I would assume they could maintain a $100M+ payroll, but I honestly have no clue.

[Bradysburns]

I think it's a poor/borderline very poor "baseball move", and I think Neyer nails it with his quick take:

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2011/2/4/1975809/vladimir-guerrero-orioles-sign-contract-neyer

But, I also concede I doubt BAL had better plans for this money anyway, so the net effect is minimal. Wish we saw this money being pumped into more useful avenues, though. Another 2011 move with little to no thought of the future...

I'm sorry - but this has to be the most ignorant response to the Vlad signing I have seen. (Neyer's, I mean, not yours...) Remind me never to let Rob Neyer near my Cheerios, man.

This is so wrong-headed, so just plain insulting to the collective baseball unconscious that I'm glad you pointed it out... just so I can deride it.

The guy is acting like $8 million is a lot to commit to a Major League baseball player. As in: If you're going to spend $8 million on a player, you better plan on going to the World Series, Bub. Attention Space Captain Neyer: We just committed MORE MONEY AND YEARS to a solid middle reliever with a career 4.03 ERA... and nobody batted an eyebrow, really. So where was your outrage then?

How could someone who spent time working for Bill James be so apparently ignorant of Vlad's HOF career... that dropping $8 million strikes him as unthinkable? And how could he be so darn dismissive? Well, as they say, there's no use arguing with crazy people... so I'm going to just shut up.

Except to add that last year we dropped a cool $9 million guaranteed on Kevin Millwood, a notably over-the-hill "innings eater" who anchored the back end of our rotation when he wasn't injured! People at the time questioned whether he could be effective, but very few questioned the financials, as I recall.

Neyer is missing the point here. The single most important factor, to me, is the total amount of the contract, which is less than Gregg's... and the length of the contract... which is the minimum you can sign someone for. It's also important to consider the player's relative importance/value to YOUR team, and not "the market."

How can anyone sanely argue that it's not worth $8 million for one season for the Orioles to have a true cleanup-worthy hitter in their lineup every day?

I guess in the end I'm going to just trust the baseball intelligence of Andy MacPhail and Buck Showalter over Rob Neyer, who has a blog.

Meanwhile, I also guess I am the ONE Orioles fan who will be likely to attend more games this year because we just signed one of the top DH's in the game who could very well hit for an .830 OPS.

[weams]

Post of the thread, and I'm not too shocked there was no reply. If we had a ball player that hit as many homeruns as Drungo, we'd be lethal.

There is nothing to say once Jon posts in a thread.

[Stotle]

There is nothing to say once Jon posts in a thread.

You're a great guy, Weams, but

The guy is obviously incredibly intelligent and has a great handle on stats. But just because he has a SABR library card doesn't make him...Yoda.

[McNulty]

There's certainly room in this to agree with both Drungo and Stotle.

The head scratcher in all this for me is that they couldn't swing 8 million without deferring some of it. How can we reasonably expect they are going to have funds to increase our presence in scouting and signing international talent if this is true?

I agree with what Stotle is saying. If its a singular choice between Vlad or putting that 8 million into player development, the CLEAR choice is the latter. Which MacPhail hasn't done at all. Its my one and really only criticism of him at this point. Our farm system was prime a few years ago, and between IMO Jordan's subpar (which have a chance to rebound) drafts and lack of international talent pipeline we have fallen behind again.

NY has all the resources, Tampa (and it looks like Toronto now) have smart people in charge investing in their farms, and Boston has BOTH.

Stotle's main point is while we've improved, we are still not functioning as well as we could; and in this division that means 4/5th place more often than not.

[tntoriole]

Hahahaha!

I hate to be a Negative Nancy, but Vlad is the 2011 version of 2009-2010 Griffey to me - An old, declining former star taking up a roster spot who hurts the team and prevents younger, more useful and deserving players from getting playing time. He might not be as bad as Griffey was in his final years, but there's a good chance that he will be, and at $8M I have a feeling that the Orioles are going to be hesitant to release him if he sucks. It would be even worse if he just ends up being mediocre, but good enough to still get a full season of plate appearances. As a one-year rental, a full season of Vlad versus seeing what Reimold/Pie can do sets this team WAY back in 2012.

Maybe I'm just overreacting, but I truly feel that signing Vlad is a terrible move for this club. I think for the long-term benefit of the team, the best case scenario for this signing is that Vlad gets DFA'd or hits the disabled list early in the season...

It seems that Vlad enjoys taking it out on his former teams.....as he did here last year against the Angels....hmmm....Angels, Rangers now better watch out....lol...

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=9542929