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Orioles sign Vlad

Peace21

By Peace21
in Orioles Talk

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jtschrei Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

jtschrei

Posted
Posted
I admit I'm not as emotionally invested in the team any longer -- in part because my baseball focus has shifted and in part because I'm doing some work for another ML org. But I question how different 2011 will ultimately be. I am not sure the average fan cares that BAL is a fringe-.500 team for a huge chunk of the summer if it comes accompanied by a -5 to -8 games in the division and 3rd or 4th place standing.

Kansas City has been a loser even longer than BAL. But if the crop of young talent they have comes through, I doubt it will take long at all for the fan base to explode. Heck, it's already jumped a lot (similar to BAL's fan interest when Matusz/Wieters/Tillman/Arrieta were the big dogs in the minors).

Prospects are just that until they prove it. Do I really believe KC will have a division or wild-card winner in the next 5 years? Absolutely not. When they do, maybe I will regret these moves and be jealous. But, that farm system is not guaranteed to do anything other than have potential.... just like the Orioles have this year... potential.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Prospects are just that until they prove it. Do I really believe KC will have a division or wild-card winner in the next 5 years? Absolutely not. When they do, maybe I will regret these moves and be jealous. But, that farm system is not guaranteed to do anything other than have potential.... just like the Orioles have this year... potential.

I don't understand or agree with this at all. It sounds like you are saying "why invest in prospects -- they aren't sure things."

The only way for BAL to compete long term, unless they decide they can up payroll significantly, is to develop good cheap players in-house.

You should be jealous of KAN and their moves either way. They have a stacked system and literally $65million+ dollars to play with come 2012. They have no long term obligations, a bunch of cheap talent on the way and the talent is spread across essentially every position on the diamond.

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Guest rochester

Guest rochester

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Vlad = Good business move - he will put mainstream fans into the park this year.

More fans = more $$

Better team = more $$

Both = more $$ through MASN

More $$ for all (hopefully) means more $$ for areas that Stotle is correctly concerned about.

Maybe it's me but all the "maybe we will be third" talk is really being too pessimistic. Except for the Sawx I am just not completely thrilled with anyone else. Of course, the young P's will determine how far we go, but it is nice to actually have a major league lineup.

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SoBo Major Leaguer

SoBo

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I know the Orioles have made a lot of missteps over the past 13 years but I just don't see how giving a future HOFer a one year deal is a bad idea. The Orioles made a lot of hay out of an over the hill Harold Baines.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I think it's a poor/borderline very poor "baseball move", and I think Neyer nails it with his quick take:

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2011/2/4/1975809/vladimir-guerrero-orioles-sign-contract-neyer

But, I also concede I doubt BAL had better plans for this money anyway, so the net effect is minimal. Wish we saw this money being pumped into more useful avenues, though. Another 2011 move with little to no thought of the future...

Well, except for the fact that a team on the fringes of contention will probably draw half a million more fans to the Yards, and seemingly half the roster is now on one-year contracts that will expire and could net us draft picks next year.

Their "little to no thought" of the future includes:

1) A very reasonable budget for the future, with almost no encumbering contracts.

2) Potential for draft pick compensation from any of Hardy, Vlad, Lee, maybe Duchscherer, Koji.

3) A core of 6-7 regulars/starters under the age of 27.

4) Potential for much improved revenues with a real major league team that should be semi-competitive.

Could they have piled up more draft picks, or done more to overtly improve the development system? Sure. But this recurring theme that they don't give a hoot about building a team beyond 2011 seems a little overdone. MacPhail hasn't bought into that Billy Beane quote basically equating finishing five games out of the playoffs with winning 60 games, but I don't either.

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86this All-Star

86this

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I like this move a lot. All these years of losing there's actually hope ahead of competing for the playoffs and beyond. McPhail grew the arms and is now spending on the bats, albeit more wisely this time. Pie/Reimold have untapped potential, but I always thought that Pie lacks a "baseball" mind. He'll be a 4th outfielder, pinch runner. The other factor is the crowd at Camden Yards. Hopefully the stadium will have a full house supporting the home team instead of 1/3 full. Aren't the fans the one that help generate the revenue? If you build it, they will come! I'm going to try to hit Baltimore this year for a few games (from MFY territory).

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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For those who say Pie and Reimold will have a chance to earn playing time at spring training, are you expecting Scott to play horribly or get traded or what? I don't feel like playing as a 4th outfielder in a pretty set outfield will give us any indication whatsoever of what we have in these guys for the future. The playing time they "earn" in spring training is capped at a tiny amount because they aren't taking playing time away from a guy they just signed to an 8m deal unless he fails epically nor are they taking much PT away from Scott unless he plays horribly. Naive to think Pie and Reimold can actually earn that much extra PT from their spring trainings IMO. One of them is going to make it, most likely Pie since he can play CF too and the other will be stored back in AAA or traded. Neither is going to get consistent playing time unless there are injuries.

There will be injuries. Even while DHing most of the time Scott has only averaged 135 games the last four years. In '09 Guerrero missed 69 games. In his time with the O's Jones has missed 29 games a year.

Pie and Reimold might not get 600 PAs in a full-time platoon, like they might have before today. But you never know... Corey Patterson was signed as an in-case-of-emergency-break-glass 6th or 7th outfielder last year, and he got 340 PAs.

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baltfan Hangout Grand Counsel

baltfan

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Another thing that is possibly being overlooked is that the Orioles see an opening this season. The Rays are worse. Toronto traded their #1 pitcher away. Pettite didn't come back to the Yanks and they suddenly look old. If the Yankees got Lee and kept Pettite, maybe the Orioles would have passed on Vlad. But now, why not? (sound like a familiar slogan?)

I would be willing to bet that the AL East is tougher in 2012, so why not take a swing in 2011?

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