Orioles sign Vlad

[Stotle]

I don't buy into this line of thinking at all. I think LF was still a hole, and now we have filled that hole. It might not have been quite as much of a hole then 1B, but it was far from a sure thing.

Well the fact remains BAL literally had no 1B. They had three players capable of playing LF. The point was that the two situations were not comparable. I didn't say LF/DH was impossible to improve upon. I said it wasn't a hole to the extent that 1B was.

Jon (Crawdaddy) did a nice quick analysis at CamdenDepot of the net change between

Vlad (DH)/Scott (LF) and Scott (DH)/Pie (LF)

and decided that conservatively estimating Pie's defense vs Scott's, it was around a net +2 WAR with Vlad in the lineup.

Derrel Lee, for a little less money, is closer to a +3-4 WAR improvement over Wigginton.

That's all I was getting at. It's spending a not insignificant amount of money for a relatively insignificant improvement in wins when considering BAL's outlook. Vlad's addition takes time away from young, cheap, potential long term solutions and potentially comes at the expense of assets being spent in more useful venues (I understand this is an opinion and not fact).

[Stotle]

What makes Reimold and Pie more viable this year than last year? Why are Koji and Gregg better than Saito and Rauch, or fill in the blank other cheaper pitchers?

I've always wanted another bat, but I'd rather have Vlad than Belliard or Castro or whoever's out there now.

They are similar. I don't believe Buck was comfortable with left field. I don't think he's the type who likes to go into a season hoping something very risky works out.

You can make the argument that the significant additions this offseason are ALL risky. Hardy? Lee? Vlad? Reynolds? Where is the safety with ANY of those players?

This smells like convenient narrative, or poor reasoning on Buck's part. Since I assume he's a highly skilled professional, I'll lean towards the former.

[Stotle]

Hey, why drag me into this?

No offense intended. I thought being compared to Drungo was akin to canonizing!

[El Gordo]

You can make the argument that the significant additions this offseason are ALL risky. Hardy? Lee? Vlad? Reynolds? Where is the safety with ANY of those players?

This smells like convenient narrative, or poor reasoning on Buck's part. Since I assume he's a highly skilled professional, I'll lean towards the former.

As I have said elsewhere, I think Buck is the prime mover behind signing Vlad. If this is so what do you think his reasoning would be?

[mweb]

I'm not a fan of this move if it's really 8 million without incentives. The deferred part helps though since it's really not 8 million in present day value.

I've said this many times, but I don't think Vlad makes the team much better than it would with having Pie/Reimold in LF. The defense will likely be negatively affected and I doubt Vlad will hit much better than what I predicted out of that platoon.

If it were for 4.5 million or so, it would have been much more acceptable, although I still wouldn't have been thrilled with it for the aforementioned reasons.

This does give us added offensive depth and a bat with the potential to be very good, which increases the chances of having a winning season and even making the playoffs.

Now would I rather the O's spend this money on amateur talent? Of course. Was that a realistic option with PA as the owner? Hard to say, but the answer could easily be no.

As far as not doing much for the future, well again I would have rather had that money spent on amateur talent. Maybe they will still spend a good deal in those markets, but I doubt it. I do think the Reynolds move is a good one for the future and all this short-term talent has the potential to bring back a good deal of young talent through trade and/or picks. TB and TOR get lauded for this a lot on here, while it's often more of a meh in regards to praising the O's for it. Plus, the odds of having Hardy on the team in 2012 and beyond have improved quite a bit. Another positive is the likely much better record should help attendance this year and beyond as well as help the perception of the O's with free agents. Lastly, I'm not sure what moves were out there that would have been good and smart long-term moves for the O's.

So while I agree the O's should be looking more towards the future in various ways, I do think some are too critical in this regard.

[wildcard]

Well the fact remains BAL literally had no 1B. They had three players capable of playing LF. The point was that the two situations were not comparable. I didn't say LF/DH was impossible to improve upon. I said it wasn't a hole to the extent that 1B was.

Jon (Crawdaddy) did a nice quick analysis at CamdenDepot of the net change between

Vlad (DH)/Scott (LF) and Scott (DH)/Pie (LF)

and decided that conservatively estimating Pie's defense vs Scott's, it was around a net +2 WAR with Vlad in the lineup.

Derrel Lee, for a little less money, is closer to a +3-4 WAR improvement over Wigginton.

That's all I was getting at. It's spending a not insignificant amount of money for a relatively insignificant improvement in wins when considering BAL's outlook. Vlad's addition takes time away from young, cheap, potential long term solutions and potentially comes at the expense of assets being spent in more useful venues (I understand this is an opinion and not fact).

I think there is an underestimation of what Vlad does for the lineup.

I agree that a good year by Reimold and a normal year by Vlad aren't that far apart. But Vlad adds more then that. If Lee is batting in front of him and Vlad is in the on deck circle and there are runners on base, who does the pitcher want to pitch to. Lee may see better pitches.

Having both Vlad and Reimold in the organization also adds depth.

The O's said at the beginning of the offseason that they wanted to improve the middle of the lineup. Vlad does that. Reimold and Pie do not.

I believe that O's braintrust never thought they could attract Vlad. Not until all his other options dried up. Then they low balled him. His agents response was probably, if you do not offer 8M he will wait into the season until someone needs him. That is probably when the O's offered the 8M contract. The choice was that amount of money or no Vlad. With Buck telling AM and PA they are on the verge of a turnaround, the O's spent the money.

[wildcard]

I'm not a fan of this move if it's really 8 million without incentives. The deferred part helps though since it's really not 8 million in present day value.

I've said this many times, but I don't think Vlad makes the team much better than it would with having Pie/Reimold in LF. The defense will likely be negatively affected and I doubt Vlad will hit much better than what I predicted out of that platoon.

If it were for 4.5 million or so, it would have been much more acceptable, although I still wouldn't have been thrilled with it for the aforementioned reasons.

This does give us added offensive depth and a bat with the potential to be very good, which increases the chances of having a winning season and even making the playoffs.

Now would I rather the O's spend this money on amateur talent? Of course. Was that a realistic option with PA as the owner? Hard to say, but the answer could easily be no.

As far as not doing much for the future, well again I would have rather had that money spent on amateur talent. Maybe they will still spend a good deal in those markets, but I doubt it. I do think the Reynolds move is a good one for the future and all this short-term talent has the potential to bring back a good deal of young talent through trade and/or picks. TB and TOR get lauded for this a lot on here, while it's often more of a meh in regards to praising the O's for it. Plus, the odds of having Hardy on the team in 2012 and beyond have improved quite a bit. Another positive is the likely much better record should help attendance this year and beyond as well as help the perception of the O's with free agents. Lastly, I'm not sure what moves were out there that would have been good and smart long-term moves for the O's.

So while I agree the O's should be looking more towards the future in various ways, I do think some are too critical in this regard.

This is quite a conversation you just had with yourself. You covered both sides in one post. In the end I am not sure you convinced yourself one way or the other.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I think there is an underestimation of what Vlad does for the lineup.

I think it is easy to overestimate the effect any single hitter has on a lineup. In any case, Vlad's Fear Factor will be exactly in line with the numbers he puts up. If he puts up a .900 OPS then he will be treated that way. If he is more like an .825 hitter then he will have a commensurate effect.

[LookinUp]

Jon (Crawdaddy) did a nice quick analysis at CamdenDepot of the net change between

Vlad (DH)/Scott (LF) and Scott (DH)/Pie (LF)

and decided that conservatively estimating Pie's defense vs Scott's, it was around a net +2 WAR with Vlad in the lineup.

Derrel Lee, for a little less money, is closer to a +3-4 WAR improvement over Wigginton.

That's all I was getting at. It's spending a not insignificant amount of money for a relatively insignificant improvement in wins when considering BAL's outlook.

If we were to pay for 2 WAR, wouldn't that cost in the neighborhood of 9 million?

Vlad's addition takes time away from young, cheap, potential long term solutions and potentially comes at the expense of assets being spent in more useful venues (I understand this is an opinion and not fact).

Yeah, I agree, but it also replaces the young/cheap/unrealized potential with something more of a sure thing, without purely jettisoning them altogether.

You can make the argument that the significant additions this offseason are ALL risky. Hardy? Lee? Vlad? Reynolds? Where is the safety with ANY of those players?

This smells like convenient narrative, or poor reasoning on Buck's part. Since I assume he's a highly skilled professional, I'll lean towards the former.

The obvious difference is all of the assets we got this year have proven themselves to be good major leaguers talent-wise. Reimold and Pie have shown flashes, but haven't proven anything at this level yet.

In all of this, it's not insignificant to me that this is a FA signing, not a trade. We're not eliminating two youngish guys with potential from the equation. They're still part of the equation, and if either of them proves theirselves in the next several months, something tells me that the most they'll have to wait to be regular contributors is one year...again, at most.

[Birds of B'more]

I've said this many times, but I don't think Vlad makes the team much better than it would with having Pie/Reimold in LF. The defense will likely be negatively affected and I doubt Vlad will hit much better than what I predicted out of that platoon.

Your prediction is based on two unproven commodities vs one proven one. Given the evidence before us, I can't agree with you. If you want to say that the reduced ABs for Pie/Reimold sets the team back in making a final determination of what, if anything, they will be able to contribute going forward, then that I can agree with. But to say that they would produce what Vlad can based on their very limited success in the majors thus far? Nah, don't see it.

[mweb]

This is quite a conversation you just had with yourself. You covered both sides in one post. In the end I am not sure you convinced yourself one way or the other.

I think I was pretty clear regarding my feelings on Vlad. The rest was more about the off-season as a whole, and I think that was pretty clear too and I'm pretty convinced regarding where I stand, but thanks for the concern.

[wildcard]

I think I was pretty clear regarding my feelings on Vlad. The rest was more about the off-season as a whole, and I think that was pretty clear too and I'm pretty convinced regarding where I stand, but thanks for the concern.

I am sure you do. I just thought you covered both sides of the topic very nicely in a short post.

[Stotle]

As I have said elsewhere, I think Buck is the prime mover behind signing Vlad. If this is so what do you think his reasoning would be?

It would have much more to do with their experience than any sort of low-risk characteristic of their collective profile.

[Bradysburns]

So your argument is that a history of questionable moves justifies further questionable moves. At least you didn't cite Garrett Atkins, the way others have done, but it's the same principle with Millwood and Gregg: Hey, we've already blown a ton of money of old guys who can't really help us that much--so doing it again must be a great idea!

You realize, I hope, that this creates an unending spiral of questionable moves.

Instead of snarking all over Neyer, maybe you should address his central proposition that a team trying to lift itself out of mediocrity shouldn't throw significant money into short term, incremental upgrades.

In other words: are you ready to argue that throwing big money into short-term incremental upgrades is a smart move for a mediocre team with limited resources?

Personally, I'm somewhat in the middle here. I agree with Neyer that paying $5-8MM for a guy who might be worth two or three extra wins is not a smart way to spend money, unless you have a team that is two or three wins away from contending. I wish the Orioles were that close; my heart says yes but my head says no frickin' way. But Neyer assumes that the money spent on Vlad will prevent the O's from doing things that really should be done, like becoming a big time presence in the Caribbean. I think he's wrong about that, because that wasn't going to happen anyway.

So really all this move confirms is that the Orioles are not being run in an intelligent and far-sighted fashion. But I already knew that.

Look, I really hope that Vlad is as good as many here seem to think he will be. I really, really hope that he's the last piece of a puzzle that has the O's playing big games late into September and bumping up attendance by half a million or more.

But if I have to choose the smart guy between Rob Neyer and somebody who believes that the Gregg and Millwood contracts justify spending $5-8MM on a one-year contract to a 36 YO with bad knees...

...I pick the guy with the blog.

Ouch! Damn, Arthur. I generally would consider Neyer more credible than myself in terms of baseball, too, especially as he has hung around the halls of actual baseball minds over the course of his storied blogging career.

But in this case, it's you and Neyer in one corner... and me and Buck Showalter and Andy MacPhail in another (along with Brian Roberts and some other players who seem to think it was a smart signing). So I'm voting "us"... Sorry.

But here's the thing, too. I'm not trying to justify a new idiotic contract by citing prior idiotic contracts. What I'm pointing out is that a whopping $8 million contract is nothing, really, in the grand scheme of baseball things.

And yes, I am arguing that it makes the team better this year, and that's how you... well... make a team better. I would also argue that this is PRECISELY the kind of move that indicates a far-sighted vision. If Reimold had actually earned the left field spot up to this point, and they signed Vlad, I would agree with you. It makes no sense. Also, too, if they had signed Vlad for multiple years, I would agree with you.

But this is the exact kind of guy you want to sign to a one-year deal, because you're both trying to win now... while maintaining full flexibility to do what you want down the road, after this season.

And yes, I think it's worth investing in short-term incremental upgrades when you're rebuilding, just like the Rays have done... as the Giants did last year... Here's why...

Maybe Vlad's presence in the lineup is the thing that will trigger Markakis to explode, because he can now slot into the two hole. Same goes for all the guys who have been batting out of their natural position in the lineup, like Jones, Wieters and others. Maybe he'll give our pitchers just a little more confidence knowing they won't rack up an automatic L because they gave up three runs.

Maybe those few extra wins could help us attract that big FA next offseason. Maybe it will help create the impression around the league (and on our team) that the Orioles are about to break out (not merely that we have some nice young players but will never compete in the AL East).

And here's the capper: Maybe all of this will ensure that we won't have to pay an "Orioles tax" for the next big free agent.

Regarding the "bad baseball decision" thing... You and I are on the same page. I don't buy the argument that these particular $8 million were earmarked for the next Vlad Guerrero hitting rocks with a broomstick down in the DR. Is there a real case to be made that this is the signing that will cripple our grand plans for dominating the Caribbean? Not likely.

In the end, I don't see the big kerfuffle over dropping $8 mill on a future HOF'er who plays a position we desperately need... for one year with a new skipper who knows how to maximize talent.

[El Gordo]

It would have much more to do with their experience than any sort of low-risk characteristic of their collective profile.

Who is the "they" you are referring to? I was asking about Vlad. Forgive me, but this makes no sense to me.