Orioles sign Vlad

[Stotle]

If we were to pay for 2 WAR, wouldn't that cost in the neighborhood of 9 million?

The question is whether 2 wins is worth buying in the Orioles position. I don't think the difference between an 84 and 86 win team has any affect whatsoever on fan interest, etc.

Yeah, I agree, but it also replaces the young/cheap/unrealized potential with something more of a sure thing, without purely jettisoning them altogether.

More accurately, it rolls the dice on an aging player and assures the young talent will need to be at AAA to get any sort of regular time.

The obvious difference is all of the assets we got this year have proven themselves to be good major leaguers talent-wise. Reimold and Pie have shown flashes, but haven't proven anything at this level yet.

Well, let's revisit at the end of the season and see how "safe" this group was. Heck, throw Roberts in the mix too. I'm happy to be wrong about them all.

In all of this, it's not insignificant to me that this is a FA signing, not a trade. We're not eliminating two youngish guys with potential from the equation. They're still part of the equation, and if either of them proves theirselves in the next several months, something tells me that the most they'll have to wait to be regular contributors is one year...again, at most.

I think the years under cheap control are of utmost value to BAL. Every wasted developmental year pushes BAL further away from competition. What Vlad successfully does is make sure Reimold doesn't regular time until 2012, barring injury (I actually think he's likely to get time due to others' injury, but that is a knock on the deal so I'm giving Vlad, etc. the healthy benefit of the doubt).

Just saying "they only have to wait one more year" ignores the fact that you need to see them play to evaluate their place in the future. AAA isn't going to tell you that. When Reimold has a solid AAA season and Vlad leaves next year, do you hand the job to Reimold and hope he does it at the ML level, too, or do you look for more veteran insurance? Ditto Pie.

There just isn't a reasonable way, in my opinion, to make this a "good" baseball move for a team not competing for a playoff spot. I'm happy to eat crow when BAL is in a barn burner in September. But he isn't a good health risk. His numbers were somewhat inflated due to his 1st half last year. In a market where he seemingly had no where else to go, BAL ended up paying almost exactly market value -- okay, I think $2M is deferred, and worth noting.

[statman]

It's a shame this guy can't play the field anymore...I honestly wonder what his fastball would be clocked at:

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[Stotle]

Who is the "they" you are referring to? I was asking about Vlad. Forgive me, but this makes no sense to me.

Vlad/Hardy/Lee -- the veterans that were signed.

[El Gordo]

Vlad/Hardy/Lee -- the veterans that were signed.

Yes, but my question is assuming Buck was in favor of signing Vlad, what do you think his reasoning might be. You have said it is a poor signing. Why do you suppose Buck doesn't agree?

[Birds of B'more]

Yes, but my question is assuming Buck was in favor of signing Vlad, what do you think his reasoning might be. You have said it is a poor signing. Why do you suppose Buck doesn't agree?

I can probably answer that. It's because with Vlad vs Pie/Reimold the O's are probably a better team by 2 wins, and Buck's job is to win as many games as possible, right now. As for the long-term impact of the development of Reimold and Pie, and how $8 million could be better spent.....that's MacPhail's worry, as far as Buck is concerned.

That is not to say I'm not in favor of signing Vlad, I should add.

[wildcard]

I can probably answer that. It's because with Vlad vs Pie/Reimold the O's are probably a better team by 2 wins' date=' and Buck's job is to win as many games as possible, right now. As for the long-term impact of the development of Reimold and Pie, and how $8 million could be better spent.....that's MacPhail's worry, as far as Buck is concerned.

That is not to say I'm not in favor of signing Vlad, I should add.[/quote']

You really think Buck is that short sighted?

[Stotle]

Yes, but my question is assuming Buck was in favor of signing Vlad, what do you think his reasoning might be. You have said it is a poor signing. Why do you suppose Buck doesn't agree?

I said a preference for experienced players.

[Birds of B'more]

You really think Buck is that short sighted?

How is it short-sighted? Buck only knows what he's seen first hand, and what he saw was a team that went 34-23 over the last 3rd of the season. And that team had Wigginton, Bell and Izturis playing everyday. Replace those guys with Lee, Reynolds and Hardy, and I bet Buck is already thinking big. So why not replace Pie/Reimold in the lineup with Vlad and really go for it?

Like I keep saying, it will really come down to the young starters. But under Buck they did very well, so I'm sure he sees no reason to think it's not sustainable over next season. I doubt he'll lose any sleep over where that $8 million could have gone.

[mweb]

The question is whether 2 wins is worth buying in the Orioles position. I don't think the difference between an 84 and 86 win team has any affect whatsoever on fan interest, etc.

I agree that this money could have been spent much better on amateur players; however, if the O's are roughly an 86 win team right now, there is a reasonable chance that those two wins are the difference between winning 89 and 91 wins or something like that, which could win them the wildcard.

Now I tend to doubt Vlad improves the team by two wins, but it's certainly possible he does or even beats that number.

So I don't think it's awful to spend 8M(less really considering the deferment) on an estimated two win improvement considering the O's situation. I just don't think this is an example of that and I would have liked to have seen Pie/Reimold get a lot more PT. So we largely agree on Vlad, but not so much on the worth of 2 wins to the O's.

[wildcard]

How is it short-sighted? Buck only knows what he's seen first hand' date=' and what he saw was a team that went 34-23 over the last 3rd of the season. And that team had Wigginton, Bell and Izturis playing everyday. Replace those guys with Lee, Reynolds and Hardy, and I bet Buck is already thinking big. So why not replace Pie/Reimold in the lineup with Vlad and really go for it?

Like I keep saying, it will really come down to the young starters. But under Buck they did very well, so I'm sure he sees no reason to think it's not sustainable over next season. I doubt he'll lose any sleep over where that $8 million could have gone.[/quote']

If Buck thought Vlad was only worth 2 wins to the team over Pie/Remold he would never have asked the team to pay 8M for Vlad.

[Birds of B'more]

If Buck thought Vlad was only worth 2 wins to the team over Pie/Remold he would have never have asked the team to pay 8M for Vlad.

Like mweb says above, you and Buck may differ on the potential value of 2 wins....assuming 2 wins is all Buck thinks Vlad can add.

[Stotle]

I agree that this money could have been spent much better on amateur players; however, if the O's are roughly an 86 win team right now, there is a reasonable chance that those two wins are the difference between winning 89 and 91 wins or something like that, which could win them the wildcard.

Now I tend to doubt Vlad improves the team by two wins, but it's certainly possible he does or even beats that number.

So I don't think it's awful to spend 8M(less really considering the deferment) on an estimated two win improvement considering the O's situation. I just don't think this is an example of that and I would have liked to have seen Pie/Reimold get a lot more PT. So we largely agree on Vlad, but not so much on the worth of 2 wins to the O's.

One misconception -- the $8 million doesn't have to be on amateur talent. It could be towards better minor league facilities, paying for players to get better off-season training, neutritionists at all levels, sit in an interest earning account to be spent on the proverbial "big ticket" item. Yeah, i beat the amateur talent drum, but there are lots of things BAL could spend $8M on.

As an aside, Crawdaddy emailed me and said the 2 wins was a rough estimate. When he crunched the numbers it was closer to a 0.8 win increase with Vlad.

[wildcard]

One misconception -- the $8 million doesn't have to be on amateur talent. It could be towards better minor league facilities, paying for players to get better off-season training, neutritionists at all levels, sit in an interest earning account to be spent on the proverbial "big ticket" item. Yeah, i beat the amateur talent drum, but there are lots of things BAL could spend $8M on.

As an aside, Crawdaddy emailed me and said the 2 wins was a rough estimate. When he crunched the numbers it was closer to a 0.8 win increase with Vlad.

Can you or Crawdaddy explain the O's going 34-23 over the last two months of th 2010 season in terms of WAR. Could you have predicted it?

[Stotle]

Can you or Crawdaddy explain the O's going 34-23 over the last two months of th 2010 season in terms of WAR. Could you have predicted it?

Small sample size with statistical noise. Fortunate in 1-run games.

Are you confident that the 34-23 under Buck was a true representation of how the team will play under Buck? If so, I assume you think they will start off better than 34-23 in their first 57 games, given all the improvements? Care to make a friendly wager on that?

[wildcard]

I agree that this money could have been spent much better on amateur players; however, if the O's are roughly an 86 win team right now, there is a reasonable chance that those two wins are the difference between winning 89 and 91 wins or something like that, which could win them the wildcard.

Now I tend to doubt Vlad improves the team by two wins, but it's certainly possible he does or even beats that number.

So I don't think it's awful to spend 8M(less really considering the deferment) on an estimated two win improvement considering the O's situation. I just don't think this is an example of that and I would have liked to have seen Pie/Reimold get a lot more PT. So we largely agree on Vlad, but not so much on the worth of 2 wins to the O's.

Could you explain how you got from 86 wins to 91 wins with a 2 win addition of Vlad?