vs. MARINERS 5 / 12

[JERSEYORIOLE]

Andino, actually looking sharp at 3rd

[Steve I]

Revenge of the DP, O's style :2yay-thumb:

[jasmith85]

PHew, we survived another Kevin Gregg experience.

[orioledale]

Well, I was ignoring you until you typed this little gem. Now I realize debating with you is like having a gunfight with an unarmed man.

You are right, I certainly can't compete with a rapist wit like yours*.

*before I get banned, that was a movie reference Mr. Moderator.

[barellano]

Dumbest play in baseball. Statistically you have a better chance of scoring with a runner on first and no outs than you do with a runner on second with one out.

Is that true? Interesting if so.

[backwardsk]

Ha, I was getting ready to ask if people agreed with putting Cust on in that situation. Works out nicely.

[scOtt]

PHew, we survived another Kevin Gregg experience.

You guys are harsh! Gregg's been money 6 or 7 times in a row now.

[Steve I]

At least Zach lowered his ERA, too bad he di not get a W, ran into a Guthrie situation, their pitcher was a bit stronger.

[Goober Noodles]

So I just found this guy in my living room:

<img src="http://imageshack.us/m/231/5357/20110512172205691.jpg">

and sacrificed him for the good of the Orioles:

Warning, language:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsLHUNpjfU4

[El Gordo]

We have our best guns coming up. If Matt doesn't do it or JJ, Felix will save us.:laughlol:

[Malike]

Wieters is in scoring position!

[Brian88]

Felix is gonna send one over the scoreboard

[O'sFanThruJune]

Is that true? Interesting if so.

Your expected runs scored goes down, because you decrease your chance of multiple runs, but I think the chance of scoring at least one goes up a bit. So that's one of the few situations where it makes some sense to sacrifice.

[foxfield]

I'd like to order some Pie please!!!

[orioledale]

Is that true? Interesting if so.

A website called The Book — Playing The Percentages In Baseball did the math, and found that the run expectancy for a runner on first with no outs is 0.972. That number for a runner on second with one out — 0.746. So the odds go down, meaning that sacrifice bunting really makes no sense.

Here is the entire table:

Situation No Outs One Out Two Out

Empty 0.551 0.295 0.111

1st 0.972 0.576 0.252

2nd 1.228 0.746 0.337

3rd 1.424 0.980 0.394

1st/2nd 1.649 1.027 0.478

1st/3rd 1.845 1.261 0.535

2nd/3rd 2.101 1.431 0.620

Loaded 2.522 1.717 0.761