Buster Olney's offseason plan for the O's

[Sports Guy]

But not from the same team that wanted such positional player in July to help them get to the playoffs.

Not sure i agree with this. The Angels are(likely) not going to make the playoffs in a year they felt they could win the WS. OCab has come back to earth to the player we know he really is(last time i checked his stats). So, things have changed some in Angels land.

Now, maybe they just say screw it...Let's go with the youth and see what happens. If i were them, i would probably do that. But i am not sure Moreno stands by and lets that happen.

[davearm]

Santana is a stud, but I think classifying Aybar as a "super prospect" is way overrating him.

He makes a ton of errors in the minors. I know you've addressed this as a part of the learning curve for a young player, and that's fine, but we certainly can't point to his defense as a plus at this point.

And his offense is simply just not impressive. He's got underwhelming numbers in a notorious hitters league. And on top of not being a great hitter, he is a terrible base stealer (~65%), costing his team even more runs in the process.

I don't see him as anything more than an average SS at the ML level. I'm not saying he isn't a good prospect, because he is, but he'd really have to improve a lot to be anything more than a decent player. I think people are really underestimating the dropoff there would be in going from Tejada to Aybar. I personally don't think that the bonus of having Santana makes up for that dropoff, although if we end up spending Tejada's salary to bring in a LF or 1B, it makes it a bit murkier of a comparison.

Mackus you really ought to go back and (re)read NoVaO's post #205 in this thread.

Ask yourself if you'd be seeing only negatives and questionmarks with Aybar if he was in the O's system, where he'd be one of your team's 2 or 3 best prospects, and a guy rated in the top 50ish range overall.

[ejf1025]

Not sure i agree with this. The Angels are(likely) not going to make the playoffs in a year they felt they could win the WS. OCab has come back to earth to the player we know he really is(last time i checked his stats). So, things have changed some in Angels land.

Now, maybe they just say screw it...Let's go with the youth and see what happens. If i were them, i would probably do that. But i am not sure Moreno stands by and lets that happen.

But the package that would have been suitable for Tejada is no longer available.

With Colon's demise, Santana is practically untouchable at this point. Meaning that you have to find a bigger piece because Aybar/Kotchman/Morales are decent players but not centerpieces. Kendrick is entrenched in their lineup. Weaver is a phenom. Adenhart is too young for the deal to be centered on him. Perhaps Saunders and some combo from the Aybar/Kotchman/Morales and a reliever could work...

We missed our chance to add a 23 yr old stud who mowed through the Yanks in the playoffs and we're going to regret this for years...

[Mackus]

Mackus you really ought to go back and (re)read NoVaO's post #205 in this thread.

Ask yourself if you'd be seeing only negatives and questionmarks with Aybar if he was in the O's system, where he'd be one of your team's 2 or 3 best prospects, and a guy rated in the top 50ish range overall.

I certainly agree he would be one of our top 5 prospects, and probably even ahead of Riemold in terms of positional prospects (mostly due to his advanced level at a youngish age).

I just don't think he projects to be anything better than an average SS. I'd love to have him in the organization, just not at the expense of a player of Tejada's caliber. I realize its not fair to make a 1-to-1 comparison, but Aybar doesn't strike me as a real difference maker at the ML level.

[ejf1025]

You can't say that with so much certainty.

Colon's injury surfaced before the deadline. The Angels knew about it and still apparently were willing to make the deal. Even without Santana, they have Escobar, Lackey, Weaver, & Saunders.

I don't think they thought they had to shut him down for the rest of the season.

Plus, as has been pointed out, the Angels were crawling back into the playoff chase.

With their big money pitcher on the shelf for the forseeable future and Escobar getting a year older and Saunders/Weaver still just entering their second season; I would think Stoneman has put a pretty high premium on keeping Santana around- young and experienced. I could see them moving Saunders, not Santana.

Furthermore, if Moreno wants to open the wallet and keep a winner on the field he can just go and chase Soriano and Lee.

[davearm]

Yanks don't have more than we can offer, even without the big 5 in it. They don't want to trade Hughes and i am not sure if he is enough by himself. So, unless the Rangers take on Farnsworth and Pavano, i don't see NY as a match.

The Red Sox could probably do something but they would have to trade LEster and i am not sure they will do that.

Mets? Beyond Milledge and Pelfrey what do they have? I can see them dealing Milledge but the Rangers would want pitching i assume.

Angels? They would make sense except i doubt they deal in division.

Dodgers...I agree with but have to see what else they do, especially with Nomar.

Tigers are a maybe.

You should really just stop trying to rationalize that a legit superstar will be available to the O's for a bargain price simply because no other teams would have much interest. That's just silly. There would be *plenty* of interest in a guy like Teixiera, from all sorts of teams.

In addition to the ones mentioned already, you could add: Astros, Braves, Indians, Giants, Reds. And that's assuming Tex sticks at 1B. If he will go to the OF, then add a half dozen or so more teams to the mix.

[davearm]

I certainly agree he would be one of our top 5 prospects, and probably even ahead of Riemold in terms of positional prospects (mostly due to his advanced level at a youngish age).

I just don't think he projects to be anything better than an average SS. I'd love to have him in the organization, just not at the expense of a player of Tejada's caliber. I realize its not fair to make a 1-to-1 comparison, but Aybar doesn't strike me as a real difference maker at the ML level.

You don't need Aybar to be a difference-maker though. Cheap and ML-ready with nice upside is plenty.

Santana will be a difference-maker, and (presumably) so will the player you spend Tejada's $13M on.

[Sports Guy]

You can't say that with so much certainty.

Colon's injury surfaced before the deadline. The Angels knew about it and still apparently were willing to make the deal. Even without Santana, they have Escobar, Lackey, Weaver, & Saunders.

And the money to get any FA pitcher they want.

[ejf1025]

You should really just stop trying to rationalize that a legit superstar will be available to the O's for a bargain price simply because no other teams would have much interest. That's just silly. There would be *plenty* of interest in a guy like Teixiera, from all sorts of teams.

In addition to the ones mentioned already, you could add: Astros, Braves, Indians, Giants, Reds. And that's assuming Tex sticks at 1B. If he will go to the OF, then add a half dozen or so more teams to the mix.

Or DH...or move the team's current 1B somewhere else.

I agree with you completely.

Everyone seems to want their cake and eat it too. Get the local hero, superstar without giving up our best arms.

I find it ironic that people sit here and quibble about Aybar/Santana not being enough and demanding Wood/Kendrick/Weaver or more, but gawk at the idea that the Rangers would actually demand our best young talent in return for Tex.

[ejf1025]

Everything you say makes sense. I'm just pointing out that you can't be so certain that it isn't or will not be available again. As SG said, maybe their owner gets involved, especially if Stoneham's inability to get a deal done, not just with the O's, costs the Angels the playoffs this year.

I take issue with your first two sentences. The Angels WERE in the playoff race at the time. The whole West division was. They also had to realize that Colon's injury was potentially season ending, considering that he already had missed most of the season.

Fine, they were. That really doesn't change my point.

Also, of course, I can't say these things without much certainty (just like you can't say with certainty that they knew Colon would be out for the year)...that's why I post on a messageboard instead of having convos with Bill Stoneman.

I'm just looking at the circumstantial evidence and Santana would appear to be one of the last rotation arms the Angels would look to deal. Particularly, when they a) have depth at SS and b) have the money to spend in FA.

[Sports Guy]

Or DH...or move the team's current 1B somewhere else.

I agree with you completely.

Everyone seems to want their cake and eat it too. Get the local hero, superstar without giving up our best arms.

I find it ironic that people sit here and quibble about Aybar/Santana not being enough and demanding Wood/Kendrick/Weaver or more, but gawk at the idea that the Rangers would actually demand our best young talent in return for Tex.

Who is doing this? I think you need to read what people are saying.

NEVER have i said that we wouldn't have to give up top talent. I have said to you that they may very well demand DCab or someone like that. Never have i disagreed with that.

However, to them, Liz and Reimold may be our top 2 players. Gibbons and Benson helps their team out alot, so maybe they would value that more than DCab or Penn or Loewen. You don't know and neither do i.

[Mackus]

However, to them, Liz and Reimold may be our top 2 players. Gibbons and Benson helps their team out alot, so maybe they would value that more than DCab or Penn or Loewen. You don't know and neither do i.

But its pretty easy to guess.

I find it very hard to believe that the Rangers would rate two younger, overall lower rated, and (in Riemold's case) struggling/injured prospects more valuable than guys that are ready to pitch in the Majors already.

I think its safe to say that to get Teixeira without giving up Tejada, that we'd have to deal at least one of Cabrera, Loewen, or Penn.

[ejf1025]

I never said they knew Colon would be out for the year, WITH certainty.

I also realize this is a message board and we all have opinions. It's when people start stating opinions as facts, that we need to reel them back in.

Sorry. I didn't think it was that hard to extrapolate that I thought, that in my opinion, Santana was no longer available.

I really don't know what point you are trying to prove or disprove, it seems to me that you are selectively choosing to take certain statements as literal because you disagree with my assertion.

From now on I will preface all my posts with "IMO" if that will clear things up for you.

[ejf1025]

But its pretty easy to guess.

I find it very hard to believe that the Rangers would rate two younger, overall lower rated, and (in Riemold's case) struggling/injured prospects more valuable than guys that are ready to pitch in the Majors already.

I think its safe to say that to get Teixeira without giving up Tejada, that we'd have to deal at least one of Cabrera, Loewen, or Penn.

Seriously. They could also think Brian Burres is our best arm too for all we know.

This is a pretty thin argument you are making for your package if you're relying on the old "none of us really know" argument. It reminds me of when RShack would go off on his tangents and then refute counterpoints by saying something like, "We don't *know* what the FO *knows* so it's pointless to pretend we *know* we can only go by what we do *know*."

[bigbird]

It amazes me all the posts in this thread about trading Tejada when the actual chance of this happening is zero.