TT: MacPhail's plan has failed

[crawjo]

The Orioles are a little bit better off, organizationally, than they were in 2007, but the plan has failed. The theory behind the plan was fine, the execution was poor. The organization failed to develop the arms or to acquire a big bat. It's 2011 and we still don't have an ace, or anything resembling an ace, and we still don't have a major league bat that anyone really fears. What MacPhail succeeded in doing was upgrading a few positions through trades: Jones in center, Reynolds at third, and Hardy at short. Those three are all decent players but none of them is good enough to build a franchise around.

MacPhail's most inexcusable blunder, though, has been the lack of any real presence in the international market, especially Latin America, as well as the inability to secure extra draft picks. Plus the Hobgood disaster, of course.

[WEAVERMAN]

You summed it perfectly.

[glenn__davis]

I pretty much agree with this.

It doesn't have to be so one sided. I mean, come on, Britton is mostly in the minors to save us some money down the road and Matusz very likely is still overcoming a non-arm injury. Arrieta has improved in some areas. AJones and Weiters are certainly better. Is it enough? Of course not.

I guess i don't view "the plan" as static. Nor do I believe that AM really owns it anymore.

Obviously, we don't have enough talent either at the major league level or in the high minors. Someone needs to be held accountable for that and I'm pretty sure that will come as soon as the season is over.

Having said that, I just don't feel as much "woe is me" as many others.

Spot on, IMO.

I think the plan was good. And I really do not think the execution has been as bad as others seem to think.

So my vote at this point is too soon to tell. I'd like to see what this team can do with a healthy Matusz, Arrieta and Britton.

[Tony-OH]

The Orioles are a little bit better off, organizationally, than they were in 2007, but the plan has failed. The theory behind the plan was fine, the execution was poor. The organization failed to develop the arms or to acquire a big bat. It's 2011 and we still don't have an ace, or anything resembling an ace, and we still don't have a major league bat that anyone really fears. What MacPhail succeeded in doing was upgrading a few positions through trades: Jones in center, Reynolds at third, and Hardy at short. Those three are all decent players but none of them is good enough to build a franchise around.

MacPhail's most inexcusable blunder, though, has been the lack of any real presence in the international market, especially Latin America, as well as the inability to secure extra draft picks. Plus the Hobgood disaster, of course.

Joe Jordan does all the drafting. He gets credit or the blame for the players selected, not MacPhail. Ultimately MacPhail can decide whether Jordan should be making those picks or not so in that vane he's responsible, but you can't blame Hobgood on MacPhail.

[El Gordo]

So has the plan failed, or has MacPhail poorly executed it?

[wildcard]

I am going to be something of a contrarian, and say that it is too soon to determine that the young pitchers won't turn out to be pretty good. I still have a fair amount of confidence in Matusz, Britton and Arrieta, despite their hiccups over the last two months. I haven't given up on Bergesen or Tillman as 4th/5th starters, either. These guys are 23-25 years old, and though I am disappointed with the fact that they have not built on the success of August and September last year, I'm not ready to declare them failures.

I agree. I think Mark Conner messed up the pitching staff this year. Many of the young players and pitchers are keepers. Better players to fill holes and Mike Griffin as pitching coach would help a lot. Oh and it would probably help if the O's players did not hit themselves in the head with bats.

[MrOrange82]

Disagree completely. He said all the right things and made great trades. The only dissatisfaction early on was due to a lack of spending in free agency. Let me just say that the Teixeira saga and the absence of big free agent signings plays no part in my opinion of MacPhail. It is not a factor. But the growing consensus that he won't be a major player internationally, a disappointing draft presence (signing Mike Gonzalez, being middle of the road on overslot spending), and a sense that he's conservative in all the wrong ways - penny wise and a pound foolish describes him well - has convinced me that he doesn't understand what it takes to win with this team.

I don't disagree with most of what you said. I've started taking issue (in retrospect, granted) with the "he makes great trades" mantra that we've all used to satisfy ourselves, at one time or another, that AM's doing/done an OK job.

Looking back on his trades, though...

J.J. Hardy has been, arguably, a "great" pick-up, given what we sent the Twins in exchange. He did miss time on the DL this year, though, and it remains to be seen how healthy he'll stay over the course of the next three years. Perhaps unfortunately, that trade is not a "got a good player for pennies, traded him for gold bricks at the deadline" situation. He's here to stay for the time being.

Mark Reynolds has infused some power into the lineup, but his defensive failings have translated to an overall WAR of 0.5. Meanwhile, David Hernandez has been worth 1.0 WAR as a reliever for Arizona (3.14 ERA, 2.71 FIP), and the Orioles' bullpen is the worst in the big leagues. I still like the Reynolds trade, but I wouldn't call it "great."

Luke Scott was a solid addition to the roster, but Tejada performed well for Houston. We didn't make a "steal" trade there. Patton's been a near-total flop, and Sarfate has flopped. Albers was horrible(ly fat), And who is Mike Constanzo, anyway? Especially given how long it took to find a decent SS replacement following the Tejada trade, I wouldn't call that one "great," either.

How about Josh Bell? I guess the jury's still out on him, but he came over as a well-regarded prospect, and he's turned out to be...well, in AAA this year he was hitting .254 with a .308 OBP before his promotion. He was showing some power in the minors (16 HRs in 373 PA's), but nothing mind-blowing. So OK...we only gave up Sherrill...we also haven't adequately replaced Sherrill since his departure. Again, I'm not necessarily "anti" that trade, but I wouldn't call it great.

And then there's Felix Pie, our 4th OFer. In his 3ish seasons in Baltimore, he's been worth 0.3 WAR...total. Sure, AM traded a bucket of balls to get Pie (Garrett Olsen and Henry Williamson), but what AM got wasn't exactly spectacular. Good trade? OK, I suppose. Great? Hardly.

I guess that brings us to the trade that netted Adam Jones. This, IMO, qualifies as a "great" trade, if only because we all knew precisely what we were trading away...a talented, injury-prone starting pitcher with minor, but noticeable, personality problems. In exchange we got our starting CFer...who everyone seems to complain about constantly. In retrospect, Bedard for Jones alone would've had the Orioles coming out on the plus-side, given how Bedard's career has tracked in the intervening years. However...Tony Butler? Bust. Mickolio? Gone to Arizona in the Reynolds trade. Sherrill? Gone to LA for Bell. Tillman? Well...he hasn't exactly looked as though he's poised to set the world on fire. For all the press about him at the outset, his actual "stuff"/performance looks very AAAA. So we're left with Jones. I still think it's fair to call this a great trade, but if it's true that we could've had players like Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton, etc., for Bedard, and wound up with, essentially, Jones, 1/2 of Mark Reynolds, and Josh Bell...how great WAS that trade, really?

MacPhail doesn't sign good FA's, he doesn't draft good U.S. amateurs, he doesn't sign good international players, he doesn't develop the players he drafts/signs, and, IMO, he doesn't make great trades.

AM is a failure as a GM who's failed to implement any kind if a laudable plan for the Orioles' organization. Simply put...AM's tenure has no redeeming value, and, though I don't think replacing him will solve the O's woes, it'd be a bloody start.

[Nick The Stick]

I think we have to get someone young in the GM spot. The older guys are being beaten like a dog.

Well, now that you mention it, I just filed my... No, just kidding.

But... I agree with most. The idea was definitely a good one and we have some good, young players... especially pitchers. The plan has just failed because of preparation and performance. The talent is there. Most of the "calvary" looked so good when Buck came in last season... WHAT HAS HAPPENED?

[Nick The Stick]

Well, now that you mention it, I just filed my... No, just kidding.

But... I agree with most. The idea was definitely a good one and we have some good, young players... especially pitchers. The plan has just failed because of preparation and performance. The talent is there. Most of the "calvary" looked so good when Buck came in last season... WHAT HAS HAPPENED?

Amongst other areas...

[SrMeowMeow]

I don't disagree with most of what you said. I've started taking issue (in retrospect, granted) with the "he makes great trades" mantra that we've all used to satisfy ourselves, at one time or another, that AM's doing/done an OK job.

Looking back on his trades, though...

J.J. Hardy has been, arguably, a "great" pick-up, given what we sent the Twins in exchange. He did miss time on the DL this year, though, and it remains to be seen how healthy he'll stay over the course of the next three years. Perhaps unfortunately, that trade is not a "got a good player for pennies, traded him for gold bricks at the deadline" situation. He's here to stay for the time being.

Mark Reynolds has infused some power into the lineup, but his defensive failings have translated to an overall WAR of 0.5. Meanwhile, David Hernandez has been worth 1.0 WAR as a reliever for Arizona (3.14 ERA, 2.71 FIP), and the Orioles' bullpen is the worst in the big leagues. I still like the Reynolds trade, but I wouldn't call it "great."

Luke Scott was a solid addition to the roster, but Tejada performed well for Houston. We didn't make a "steal" trade there. Patton's been a near-total flop, and Sarfate has flopped. Albers was horrible(ly fat), And who is Mike Constanzo, anyway? Especially given how long it took to find a decent SS replacement following the Tejada trade, I wouldn't call that one "great," either.

How about Josh Bell? I guess the jury's still out on him, but he came over as a well-regarded prospect, and he's turned out to be...well, in AAA this year he was hitting .254 with a .308 OBP before his promotion. He was showing some power in the minors (16 HRs in 373 PA's), but nothing mind-blowing. So OK...we only gave up Sherrill...we also haven't adequately replaced Sherrill since his departure. Again, I'm not necessarily "anti" that trade, but I wouldn't call it great.

And then there's Felix Pie, our 4th OFer. In his 3ish seasons in Baltimore, he's been worth 0.3 WAR...total. Sure, AM traded a bucket of balls to get Pie (Garrett Olsen and Henry Williamson), but what AM got wasn't exactly spectacular. Good trade? OK, I suppose. Great? Hardly.

I guess that brings us to the trade that netted Adam Jones. This, IMO, qualifies as a "great" trade, if only because we all knew precisely what we were trading away...a talented, injury-prone starting pitcher with minor, but noticeable, personality problems. In exchange we got our starting CFer...who everyone seems to complain about constantly. In retrospect, Bedard for Jones alone would've had the Orioles coming out on the plus-side, given how Bedard's career has tracked in the intervening years. However...Tony Butler? Bust. Mickolio? Gone to Arizona in the Reynolds trade. Sherrill? Gone to LA for Bell. Tillman? Well...he hasn't exactly looked as though he's poised to set the world on fire. For all the press about him at the outset, his actual "stuff"/performance looks very AAAA. So we're left with Jones. I still think it's fair to call this a great trade, but if it's true that we could've had players like Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton, etc., for Bedard, and wound up with, essentially, Jones, 1/2 of Mark Reynolds, and Josh Bell...how great WAS that trade, really?

MacPhail doesn't sign good FA's, he doesn't draft good U.S. amateurs, he doesn't sign good international players, he doesn't develop the players he drafts/signs, and, IMO, he doesn't make great trades.

AM is a failure as a GM who's failed to implement any kind if a laudable plan for the Orioles' organization. Simply put...AM's tenure has no redeeming value, and, though I don't think replacing him will solve the O's woes, it'd be a bloody start.

I appreciate the analysis but you can't judge trades completely in hindsight. At the time, the Tejada and Bedard deals were great hauls. I loved the Pie pick-up and thought (and think) Hardy and Reynolds were very canny acquisitions. Josh Bell was well-regarded at the time as you say, and it was a fair price for a decent reliever - who, by the way, gave the Dodgers a very uneven return on their investment. I don't see a single trade I disliked at the time, and I loved most of them.

[Bradysburns]

It sucks because I think you and most of us thought his plan was a reasonable one. It's hard to go back and critique the plan harshly. All of those calvary guys tore up the minors. What the hell happened? Bad luck? Bad coaching? Unpreparedness? What could we have done differently?

I'm just at a loss for what this organization should do next. Nothing they try works.

They need to start adding talent to the organization at all levels - and from wherever they can find it, first and foremost. Then start sorting it out next year. If you can add a good free agent, do it. A good trade target, do it. A good international free agent, do it. A good rule 5 guy, do it. A good waiver guy, do it. Start behaving like an expansion franchise, and hone your plan as you go.

I think one of the problems I have had with AM is that "grow the arms, buy the bats" makes no sense. For starters, it requires you to draft less talent because, by definition, you will often favor a less talented pitcher over a more talented position player... if you go with this ideology.

Also, if you draft and develop pitchers, will you ever actually have a surplus of MLB pitchers?? I haven't seen anyone come close to having that; not even the Atlanta Braves of the Maddux era, or San Francisco last year. They needed every guy they had to win the Series. They didn't trade away a bunch of MLB-ready pitchers for their position players, did they?

In other words, this theory reminds me of many other trite ideologies (such as communism, or objectivism, etc.). It might sound great in theory; but it's just a theory. If you try to enact it in the real world, you get human tragedy - and that's what we have with this team! Just kiddin. It's not exactly human tragedy, but it sure sucks.

[MrOrange82]

I appreciate the analysis but you can't judge trades completely in hindsight. At the time, the Tejada and Bedard deals were great hauls. I loved the Pie pick-up and thought (and think) Hardy and Reynolds were very canny acquisitions. Josh Bell was well-regarded at the time as you say, and it was a fair price for a decent reliever - who, by the way, gave the Dodgers a very uneven return on their investment. I don't see a single trade I disliked at the time, and I loved most of them.

I agree in part, but to call a trade "great," or a GM's trading ability "great" without taking into account how said trades actually panned out, and/or what the GM's purported ability has yielded, is folly, IMO.

Plus, (again IMO) when hindsight is taken into account and coupled with the complaints that have been raised about Oriole scouting, etc., under MacPhail, the fact that his trades haven't, for the most part, supplied "great" returns for the Orioles says something about AM's trading ability that simply goes ignored when you adhere to the "hindsight isn't fair, thus it's fairly ignored" perspective.

Results and hindsight go hand-in-hand. I'm not going to accept the idea that AM makes great trades when his trades don't generally lead to great results.

[SrMeowMeow]

I agree in part, but to call a trade "great," or a GM's trading ability "great" without taking into account how said trades actually panned out, and/or what the GM's purported ability has yielded, is folly, IMO.

Plus, (again IMO) when hindsight is taken into account and coupled with the complaints that have been raised about Oriole scouting, etc., under MacPhail, the fact that his trades haven't, for the most part, supplied "great" returns for the Orioles says something about AM's trading ability that simply goes ignored when you adhere to the "hindsight isn't fair, thus it's fairly ignored" perspective.

Results and hindsight go hand-in-hand. I'm not going to accept the idea that AM makes great trades when his trades don't generally lead to great results.

Of course results and hindsight go hand-in-hand. But I don't care about either, only process and perceived results at the time of the transaction.

[eddie83]

The ballpark and the division make it much harder here than anywhere else except maybe Toronto. You do not develop 3 good starters at once never mind 5 in a division like this. Look at the Nats, a big reason they are a respectable team this year is because of SP's like Marquis and Hernandez. Yes, Zimmerman is a good pitcher but he has alot of other starters soaking up innings and keeping the team in games. Pitchers don't want to come here for the above reasons and would it make any sense to overpay to get guys who wouldn't be that good in this division anyway? For years around here people got mad about the Trachsel's and Eaton's of the world "blocking" a young pitcher. Buckholtz had a 6.75 era in 2008 making 15 starts, the Sox won 95 games that year and a wild-card. I have not given up on Britton, Arrieta and Matusz so I vote no.

[Guest rochester]

Fail.

Our scouting is horrendous but there is no excuse for the development (lack thereof) of the small amount of MiL's that have come through the system. The only PC I even have faith in is Griffin...as someone who grew up in Rochester with the great Orioles past I never saw the ineptitude of basic knowledge and fundamentals that have come through the system in the past few years nor the ho-hum philosophy.

If we at least had a stocked lower MiL I would feel a lot better..if we had a bunch of picks instead on wasting them on junk I would feel better...If we quit spending a ton of money on two Plan B's and pay Plan A for once I would feel better.

And yes I am rooting for the Pirates