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My Bold Prediction

brianod

By brianod
in Orioles Talk

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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TEX is going to be a bloodbath. With Boston and MFY, though, it will be a lot of 9-7 games, because they can't pitch either.

Im not overly optimistic by any stretch ...But the games do have to be played and the Orioles despite their defensive woes are playing good baseball most nights. So basically they are giving themselves a chance win day in and day out.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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We don't have the SP to go up against the MFY's? Really?

Here are out SP's numbers:

Matusz: 5.66 ERA, 20.2 IP

Arrietta: 4.45 ERA, 30.1 IP

Hunter: 4.74 ERA, 24.2 IP

Hammel: 1.73 ERA, 26 IP

Chen: 2.22 ERA, 24.1 IP

And theirs:

Garcia: 12.51 ERA, 13.2 IP (in 4 starts)

Hughes: 7.88 ERA, 16 IP (in 4 starts)

Sabathia: 5.27 ERA, 27.1 IP

Kuroda: 4.38 ERA, 24.3 IP

Nova: 5.18 ERA, 24.1 IP

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems they have 2 starters averaging 4 or fewer IP per start. We have ONE starter averaging under 6 IP per start, Matusz, and he's averaging just over 5 IP per start.

Additionally, they have ONE guy under 5 ERA, and we have FOUR guys under 5 ERA.

Not to mention our bullpen has been better.

They may have scored more runs thus far, but I'm sick of hearing about how we cant beat those MF'ers. Their starting pitching has been atrocious, and ours has been good. Our offense hasnt been great thus far, but we can put up enough runs to compete.

Our SP won't be pitching to Garcia, Hughes, CC, Kuroda, and Nova. They'll be going up against Jeter, Cano, Granderson, ARoid ,Tex, Swisher, etc. And I don't even want to think about TEX lineup. The MFY bats are better against the O's SP, than the O's bats are against the MFY SP.
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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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TEX is going to be a bloodbath. With Boston and MFY, though, it will be a lot of 9-7 games, because they can't pitch either.
These teams are patient, will run our SP P count way up, and get to our pen early. That won't happen as much with our impatient offense. Our pen will get fried.
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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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Our SP won't be pitching to Garcia, Hughes, CC, Kuroda, and Nova. They'll be going up against Jeter, Cano, Granderson, ARoid ,Tex, Swisher, etc. And I don't even want to think about TEX lineup. The MFY bats are better against the O's SP, than the O's bats are against the MFY SP.

Not only that, but there's the choke factor. Until they can show they can beat a superior lineup like the MFYs on a big stage none of those numbers matter.

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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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I hate the MFYs. My double play partner from HS was a Dodger fan and went off them only to become a front running MFY fan. Sickening. I've had to hear about those jerks for years, but there's no doubt who has the better run franchise either. Nothing I'd like better than to see them get their comeuppance this year.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Not only that, but there's the choke factor. Until they can show they can beat a superior lineup like the MFYs on a big stage none of those numbers matter.
The main thing is we are facing these powerful offenses back to back to back. We needed a team like KC or someone, in between to give our bullpen a rest. I just don't see Matusz, Hunter, and Arrieta, going very deep, very often. There is likely to be a cumulative effect. Especially with only one long man.
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brianod All-Star

brianod

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The main thing is we are facing these powerful offenses back to back to back. We needed a team like KC or someone, in between to give our bullpen a rest. I just don't see Matusz, Hunter, and Arrieta, going very deep, very often. There is likely to be a cumulative effect. Especially with only one long man.

We are facing the Rangers at a perfect time. They got off to a torrid start, it's time for them to cool down. The Yankees are a beer league softball team that can be beat. We had two games against them that could of gone either way. They are beatable, especially if our pitchers throw strikes and keep the ball in the park.

The scenario you predict can certainly happen but is far from the certainty that you portray it to be. You should do yourself a favor while you paint these grizzly scenarios. Stop, take a deep breath and enjoy your team being in first place.

Dare to hope!

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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We are facing the Rangers at a perfect time. They got off to a torrid start, it's time for them to cool down. The Yankees are a beer league softball team that can be beat. We had two games against them that could of gone either way. They are beatable, especially if our pitchers throw strikes and keep the ball in the park.

The scenario you predict can certainly happen but is far from the certainty that you portray it to be. You should do yourself a favor while you paint these grizzly scenarios. Stop, take a deep breath and enjoy your team being in first place.

Dare to hope!

I am simply looking t=at the offensive numbers and being realistic. The MFY's SP is suspect but their offense is not. They work the count, they get on base, and they hit HR. They score more riuns. Same for Boston and even better for TEX, which has better SP as well. Not a recipe for success. I would consider a 6-9 record a plus. I am hoping. For a .500 plus season. With a win today, if we go 6-9, we'll be 20-17 when we face KC. That will be pretty good, IMO.
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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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TEX, MFY, and BOS, are the top offensive teams in the AL. Our SP is improved, but not good enough to stand up to that onslaught. And we are operating with a 6 man pen, for all jntents and purposes, with one long man. By the end of those 15 G's the pen will be shot, and only Chen and Hammel will have given a good account of themselves. Still if we can win tomorrow we would be 19-18.
...and tell me you wouldn't have taken that if someone told you that's where we would be at that point. I think we might surprise you though.

You never answered me. You predicted 19-18. So, before the season started you wouldn't have taken that at that point in the season?

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Rex Thunder All-Star

Rex Thunder

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Of course. But we'll be lucky to win 5-6 out of 15. Could well lose 15,

Why do I come here? Seriously? This team is not a bunch of pushovers. They are just as sick and tired of losing to the Yankees and Red Sox as any one of us is. The first month of the season isn't a mirage. They are playing quality baseball. Hell even the Twins took 2 from the yankees- and they are notoriously BAD versis them. We did sweep the Twins, did we not?

I realize pessimism is normal after so many years of losing, but at some point can't we stop the complete doom and gloom and give THIS year's team some credit...

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Satyr3206 Hangout Grand Counsel

Satyr3206

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I see those numbers and agree that the Orioles staff LOOKS better. But something gets tight when the Orioles go into NY and its not the Orioles defense.

This is the time for the Orioles to stand up to the toughest test of the season and play inspired baseball. They CAN do it. I'm not confident they will in New York.

At some point they will have to do it everywhere to become a winner.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Why do I come here? Seriously? This team is not a bunch of pushovers. They are just as sick and tired of losing to the Yankees and Red Sox as any one of us is. The first month of the season isn't a mirage. They are playing quality baseball. Hell even the Twins took 2 from the yankees- and they are notoriously BAD versis them. We did sweep the Twins, did we not?

I realize pessimism is normal after so many years of losing, but at some point can't we stop the complete doom and gloom and give THIS year's team some credit...

It's not pessimism it's realism. The Yankees just beat Detroit. Detroit is a better team than BAL. The Yankees and the Red Sox have much better offenses and at least as good pitching. TEX has better pitching as well as a better offense. Sure we could get lucky, I hope we do. But the chances of our taking 2 out of 3 for each series are slim. We should consider it an accomplishment if we avoid being swept by any of these three.
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