Orioles are "going hard" after Zack Greinke

[DrOrioles90210]

So what? Who says a team has to be built entirely through the farm? If you can get him at what DD considers a reasonable cost AND extend him then that gives the team a boost this year and the future!

Just take a chance at signing him in the offseason and it won't cost prospects.

[Lucky Jim]

I don't disagree with this, and I wasn't happy about the trade, because I don't think Thome is a fit for this team. I am not going to lose sleep for losing Lino and Simon, but I'll scratch my head about the reasoning for acquiring Thome. I will just leave it at that.

I just can't see it that way. One is hopelessly tied up in the other, to me.

[Hooded Viper]

Just take a chance at signing him in the offseason and it won't cost prospects.

Have you paid attention to the offseason for this team over most of the last 15 years? With very few exceptions FA of any worth won't sign here. Plus by trading for him you potentially eliminate the competition.

[Lucky Jim]

Tony Pente, Keith Law

I get that Tony saw him this spring and didn't like what he saw. But that's a limited look, and he had him at No. 10 in the organization before the season. That makes that a bit more of a wash, to me. (W/o discounting the more recent take). Because it means that people who were paid to evaluate talent thought Lino was a very good prospect. And multiple looks matter.

[Malike]

I just can't see it that way. One is hopelessly tied up in the other, to me.

I would guess that the percentage that Lino contributes on the ML team in any significant way in the next five years is very low. I can't lose sleep over the loss.

[DrOrioles90210]

Have you paid attention to the offseason for this team over most of the last 15 years? With very few exceptions FA of any worth won't sign here. Plus by trading for him you potentially eliminate the competition.

Do you think the team not having a chance to win had anything to do with FA not wanting to come here? If he wouldn't sign here as a FA because of that, then this team isn't good enough to trade away prospects at the deadline for that kind of pitcher. If Greinke wouldn't sign here as a FA, why would he sign an extension with only 72 hours to think about it and not having an opportunity to really consider other options?

[DrOrioles90210]

I would guess that the percentage that Lino contributes on the ML team in any significant way in the next five years is very low. I can't lose sleep over the loss.

And here's how I look at it. The chances that Lino ever contributes to the ML are small. Smaller than that are the chances that Lino becomes a significant ML player. Fine. However, I would take my chances on that bet any day than have half a season of Thome who can only contribute to the team for the last half of this year, a year where I don't believe the Orioles have any real shot at being contenders, so Thome's contribution to the ML is useless.

[VeveJones007]

Even losing the guys you mention is a big hit to our system.

But the most important argument against this trade is that Grienke isn't going to make this a playoff-caliber team. We will need BIG improvements from several players to become a realistic contender along with continuation of the surprising bullpen work. This team just isn't that good. It's still the worst team in the AL East.

You are what your record says you are. You keep falling back on the pythag, but the pythag would lose most of it's predictive value if you change 2 or more key pieces on the major league roster.

I'm not saying you definitely make a move, but you have to consider it and see what the price might be.

[Lucky Jim]

I'm happy to see everyone excited about the Orioles and we're all entitled to our opinions, but there are some pretty crazy things being thrown around in this thread.

First, about half the posts contain caveats along the lines of "with an extension". Does everyone understand that there is almost zero chance Greinke would want to sign an extension with any team that trades for him now? Why would he negotiate in a 48-72 hour window with a single team when he can negotiate for months with 30 teams? He and his agent would have to be complete idiots and Greinke is no idiot. It isn't going to happen.

It certainly isn't going to happen in Baltimore where he has zero ties and no real draw other than getting to pitch against great teams. If anyone has read anything about Greinke, he much prefers National League baseball for a lot of reasons. A big reason is that he loves to hit.

So, if we look at the reality that he will in fact be a two month rental that is likely to leave and will yield no compensation due to the new rules, what would you realistically give for him? If than answer is anything more than one ML ready player and a couple C prospects, you're nuts.

I'd love to see Greinke here. I'd love to "go for it" and make the play-offs. I'd also love to 21 again. None of those things is likely to happen.

Pretty much sums up my take. Which stopped at "why the #$%* would he extend unless we pre-emptively bought out the entire market by a ton?"

[sevastras]

Why should we be always building for the future? Why can't we ever say the future is here, let's start winning for a few years? Giving up a few duplicates ie Hoes/Avery, Flaherty/Pierce, Matusz/Arrieta(both have talent, both are lost), Schoop/Andino and all of the C prospects that are very replaceable for something we dont have, a #1 that could be signed to an extension as a condition of the trade just makes sense. We hang on to our "Calvery" and they never produce, let's grab a producer. This might not be the only piece we need, but look at the Yankee's holes. CC, Pettitte, Rivera, left field, bullpen...they rake offensively, but who doesnt have holes on their team. Let's make the 2nd half our future. Bring up MM at 3B, get Britton ready, grab Greinke, get a healthy Kakes back, make a run. The Giants put a 2010 up that wasnt even thinkable, why not us?

[DrOrioles90210]

Why should we be always building for the future? Why can't we ever say the future is here, let's start winning for a few years? Giving up a few duplicates ie Hoes/Avery, Flaherty/Pierce, Matusz/Arrieta(both have talent, both are lost), Schoop/Andino and all of the C prospects that are very replaceable for something we dont have, a #1 that could be signed to an extension as a condition of the trade just makes sense. We hang on to our "Calvery" and they never produce, let's grab a producer. This might not be the only piece we need, but look at the Yankee's holes. CC, Pettitte, Rivera, left field, bullpen...they rake offensively, but who doesnt have holes on their team. Let's make the 2nd half our future. Bring up MM at 3B, get Britton ready, grab Greinke, get a healthy Kakes back, make a run. The Giants put a 2010 up that wasnt even thinkable, why not us?

I was going to respond to your points but I couldn't get past "Calvery", which is a misspelling of Calvary, which is the location of Jesus's crucifixion. I think you meant Cavalry.

[VeveJones007]

Even losing the guys you mention is a big hit to our system.

But the most important argument against this trade is that Grienke isn't going to make this a playoff-caliber team. We will need BIG improvements from several players to become a realistic contender along with continuation of the surprising bullpen work. This team just isn't that good. It's still the worst team in the AL East.

Full disclosure, I think the most likely outcome for the team is 75-80 wins after the strong first half where they outperformed on a lot of metrics.

What is the probability that they're an 85 win team? 20%? Is that a high enough probability to bet you could buy 5 more games at the deadline? Is it enough of a likelihood to give up on a guy like Matusz or Arrieta?

Those are the kinds of questions that I ask myself when I look at the potential for a deal for Greinke. I'd be willing to move one of those pitchers, but I would haggle over the rest of the package. All of this would probably be meaningless, though, as Texas or Atlanta will probably beat any deal I'd offer.

[Lucky Jim]

I was going to respond to your points but I couldn't get past "Calvery", which is a misspelling of Calvary, which is the location of Jesus's crucifixion. I think you meant Cavalry.

That seems a silly reason for not addressing his points.

[msporter4]

Or all of this could be a ploy by DD to lower the price the Cubs are seeking.

[sevastras]

I was going to respond to your points but I couldn't get past "Calvery", which is a misspelling of Calvary, which is the location of Jesus's crucifixion. I think you meant Cavalry.

Thank you, I will try and remember that. I am glad that my points were much more valid than my ability to spell.