Orioles are "going hard" after Zack Greinke

[VeveJones007]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN

Some rival evaluators have wondered if the Orioles would part with Brian Matusz to get Zack Greinke, since they won't do Machado or Bundy.

If they get an extension with Greinke, the answer is "Yes."

[Malike]

Or, he undervalues what he has and overvalues his own abilities. That would go well.

Does his history dispute or support your hypothesis?

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[Why Not?]

I completely agree with what you're saying about the red flags, but I completely disagree with your conclusion.

Yes, they have significantly out-performed their pythag; however, that's done and over with. You can't change that the O's are 44-38 even with those poor indicators.

A trade like this would be about the remaining 80 games in the season. With a TOR starter (Greinke), the potential for Tillman to establish himself as a solid rotation piece, another minor trade (Saunders?), and players coming back from injury, can this team go 45-35? I think that's certainly a possibility that makes a Greinke deal worth considering.

Sure, 45-35 could happen with or without Grienke/Saunders, but I think it's really unlikely. It's sort of a lightning striking twice scenario. We should be about six games under .500 right now. If everything stays the same in the second half and we add Grienke/Saunders, I think .500 the rest of the way would be about what to expect.

I don't think it's wise to empty the farm system for a longshot.

[DrOrioles90210]

keithlaw ‏@keithlaw

Better question: Why would they be buyers? RT @harryhammel: @keithlaw What would it take to obtain Greinke from an Orioles perspective?

Man i really hate Law

Why? He's right. The Orioles have 2 OF on the roster and not a single player who can provide both average defense and average offense at any IF position besides SS. There are currently only 3 SP on the roster unless you count Gonzalez. How is that a playoff team that should be buying at the deadline?

[DrOrioles90210]

Does his history dispute or support your hypothesis?

I'd say the Thome trade fits that description.

[Malike]

I'd say the Thome trade fits that description.

Eh, I didn't like the trade, but people who are paid to evaluate talent pretty much said we got him for nothing. I'm not going to cry about it.

[VeveJones007]

Sure, 45-35 could happen with or without Grienke/Saunders, but I think it's really unlikely. It's sort of a lightning striking twice scenario. We should be about six games under .500 right now. If everything stays the same in the second half and we add Grienke/Saunders, I think .500 the rest of the way would be about what to expect.

I don't think it's wise to empty the farm system for a longshot.

Who says anything about emptying the farm system? You move Matusz/Arrieta, Schoop, and another lower level prospect for Greinke, a couple AAAA-potential prospects for Saunders, and that's emptying the farm?

I don't see how it would be getting hit by lightning twice for anything except the bullpen. They have been crazy good, but there are a lot of teams throughout the years who had a bullpen come out of nowhere to be terrific. Look up the 2005 White Sox as an example.

With players coming back from injury, and some hitters who could progress back to the mean in the 2nd half, I think this team could score a lot more in the 2nd half than they did in the 1st. The same goes for the pitching. With Greinke and Saunders, they could see a significant improvement there--at least enough to offset potential regression from the bullpen.

I'm not saying that 45-35 is a probability that I would bet Bundy and Machado for, but I think the probability is high enough to consider moving Matusz/Arrieta, and a couple other decent prospects.

[Lucky Jim]

Eh, I didn't like the trade, but people who are paid to evaluate talent pretty much said we got him for nothing. I'm not going to cry about it.

Really? Who are those? Links, maybe?

[paulcoates]

Why? He's right. The Orioles have 2 OF on the roster and not a single player who can provide both average defense and average offense at any IF position besides SS. There are currently only 3 SP on the roster unless you count Gonzalez. How is that a playoff team that should be buying at the deadline?

How can anyone ever argue with any team acquiring a #1, ever???

[DrOrioles90210]

Eh, I didn't like the trade, but people who are paid to evaluate talent pretty much said we got him for nothing. I'm not going to cry about it.

I don't think the opinion that Lino was nothing was a unanimous opinion. Plenty of people saw lots of upside in the 19-year-old catcher in full season A ball. That's not nothing. The people who said the O's gave up nothing framed the trade from the Phillies perspective as a professional courtesy to Thome to let him go to an AL team where he could DH. If that were the case, Simon and cash would (and should have anyway) been enough.

[Malike]

Really? Who are those? Links, maybe?

I'm not going to do homework for you as I'm pretty busy, but they are all in that long thread about Thome. Krasnick, and others chimed in about things like "low ceiling" and bag of chips, or something of that nature if memory serves.

[DrOrioles90210]

How can anyone ever argue with any team acquiring a #1, ever???

Because the O's aren't a #1 pitcher away from being a legitimate contender.

[murph]

I have not read the whole thread....but if we are close to getting Greinke, I am very excited. Of course as long as Bundy or Machado are not involved. I agree with Pedro, otherwise, take what you want Milwaukee...

This year has been so enjoyable, I don't know if we push hard (for future years, by retaining our talent and building) if it will matter in the AL east. Right now, we are in the hunt. Right now, I am really enjoying the Orioles. Right now, I want to see us do something big at the deadline to help continue that....

[JDubs]

What do you care, your a Pirates fan who has given up on the O's!

Seriously. Spare us, Sparky.

[Malike]

I don't think the opinion that Lino was nothing was a unanimous opinion. Plenty of people saw lots of upside in the 19-year-old catcher in full season A ball. That's not nothing. The people who said the O's gave up nothing framed the trade from the Phillies perspective as a professional courtesy to Thome to let him go to an AL team where he could DH. If that were the case, Simon and cash would (and should have anyway) been enough.

I never claimed it was unanimous. I claimed that people who are paid to evaluate talent and report on it had stated we didn't lose anything major. Again, Lino was our top 10 prospect, in a good farm system he's quite likely nowhere near that.